A New World Wreathed in Freedom - An Argentine Revolution TL
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Pointless, costly, and at the end of the day, everyone has a reason to feel pleased and/or disappointed in its outcome, which naturally means that literally no one is pleased with the outcome: the Republicans still have that damned Incan monarchy on their doorstep, the Incan monarchy has been reduced to a rump state, the Colombians are leveraged to hell and back for a rump state, and the United Provinces pissed off another powerful neighbor. Let's call it a homage to the pointless, costly and purely destructive wars that characterized the region IOTL and which I've spared the region of for nearly 25 years at this point.
What I find intriguing is that the dynamics that lead to the Peruvian civil war and the subsequent splitting of the country into spheres of influence isn't that different to the dynamics that led to first San Martín then Bolivar and Sucre to take charge of the war: personal animosities that turbocharged what might otherwise have been insignificant ideological differences until it led to severe military and political problems. As for the cost of this sort of adventurism, absolutely true, and I'll note that it's lucky for both regional powers that the war ended in 1835 and didn't last into the Panic of 1837 (and even then, knowing that the panic is imminent, hard to see how the Republic of Perú doesn't default on its debts to Colombia, or how the UP avoid a serious crisis with the widely-circulating war bonds).
I've been mulling that over actually, and I'm finding it impossible to see them coming down anywhere but on the Colombian side of it. Going back to this reckless adventurism biting the UP in the ass, this makes 2 out of 3 major regional powers that the UP has pissed off (the 3rd being the UP themselves), but the United Provinces can at least take some solace in the fact that most of their long land border with Brazil is essentially impenetrable until the 20th century (and even then, the Chaco War proves that fighting in those regions is suicidal even if you can technically get to the theater to begin with).
Your Incan TL is one of my all time favorites! Seeing that Yupanqui II is 75 at the end of the last update, how would you like to name his successor?
Chile is surrounded by the United Provinces, and is too far from Colombia for any military support to reach them before a Platine invasion (and the naval maneuvering to ferry troops before such an attack would be very noticeable). They make for great mediators precisely for that reason: they have no beef with Colombia, and can't afford to have beef with the United Provinces. In the absence of Uruguay, someone has to be the Switzerland of South America, and Chile at least has the mountainous terrain for it!
I love this TL very much! as argentinian is not usual to read such well built stories....in this forum, always Argentina - no matter the TL - loses a war against any rival or "fascist argentina" or "what if communist argentina" bla bla bla. Your post is the best about Argentina in about 10 years for sure!.
I see Malvinas are in UP possession...so in this TL there was not 1833 occupation?
For the future please don't eliminate Maradona!...so we can see Maradona and Francescoli for the national team togheter as well as Messi and Suarez
On the subject of the map, V2, V1 put's Peru's capital (Lima) in an extremely vulnerable position (not unlike Israel if it weren't for the fact that Israel's capital wasn't for all intents and purposes, Tel Aviv.)
Hoo boy, and then I realize, TTL's Argentina is going to be bolstered by guys from Uruguay, Paraguay and Bolivia...this will prove most interesting indeed.
I love this TL very much! as argentinian is not usual to read such well built stories....in this forum, always Argentina - no matter the TL - loses a war against any rival or "fascist argentina" or "what if communist argentina" bla bla bla. Your post is the best about Argentina in about 10 years for sure!.
I see Malvinas are in UP possession...so in this TL there was not 1833 occupation?
For the future please don't eliminate Maradona!...so we can see Maradona and Francescoli for the national team togheter as well as Messi and Suarez
Hoo boy, and then I realize, TTL's Argentina is going to be bolstered by guys from Uruguay, Paraguay and Bolivia...this will prove most interesting indeed.
So the United Provinces become the US of South America while Chile becomes itsPointless, costly, and at the end of the day, everyone has a reason to feel pleased and/or disappointed in its outcome, which naturally means that literally no one is pleased with the outcome: the Republicans still have that damned Incan monarchy on their doorstep, the Incan monarchy has been reduced to a rump state, the Colombians are leveraged to hell and back for a rump state, and the United Provinces pissed off another powerful neighbor. Let's call it a homage to the pointless, costly and purely destructive wars that characterized the region IOTL and which I've spared the region of for nearly 25 years at this point.
What I find intriguing is that the dynamics that lead to the Peruvian civil war and the subsequent splitting of the country into spheres of influence isn't that different to the dynamics that led to first San Martín then Bolivar and Sucre to take charge of the war: personal animosities that turbocharged what might otherwise have been insignificant ideological differences until it led to severe military and political problems. As for the cost of this sort of adventurism, absolutely true, and I'll note that it's lucky for both regional powers that the war ended in 1835 and didn't last into the Panic of 1837 (and even then, knowing that the panic is imminent, hard to see how the Republic of Perú doesn't default on its debts to Colombia, or how the UP avoid a serious crisis with the widely-circulating war bonds).
I've been mulling that over actually, and I'm finding it impossible to see them coming down anywhere but on the Colombian side of it. Going back to this reckless adventurism biting the UP in the ass, this makes 2 out of 3 major regional powers that the UP has pissed off (the 3rd being the UP themselves), but the United Provinces can at least take some solace in the fact that most of their long land border with Brazil is essentially impenetrable until the 20th century (and even then, the Chaco War proves that fighting in those regions is suicidal even if you can technically get to the theater to begin with).
Your Incan TL is one of my all time favorites! Seeing that Yupanqui II is 75 at the end of the last update, how would you like to name his successor?
Chile is surrounded by the United Provinces, and is too far from Colombia for any military support to reach them before a Platine invasion (and the naval maneuvering to ferry troops before such an attack would be very noticeable). They make for great mediators precisely for that reason: they have no beef with Colombia, and can't afford to have beef with the United Provinces. In the absence of Uruguay, someone has to be the Switzerland of South America, and Chile at least has the mountainous terrain for it!
In the late 19th century, if Argentina had one or two slightly better politicians than OTL, it would have truly become the US of South America.
This is so not going to sit well with the WASP types in charge of the early 20th century US: Non-WASP people having a fucntioning great power nation.
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Thank you! It was one of the reasons that motivated me to actually go ahead and write this TL, I realize it's a bit of a niche subject but I feel like the country's history is too rich to be reduced to such mundane clichés (another one I hate is English/European Patagonia which inexplicably borders Argentina's 1810 borders, even with a POD in the mid-19th century).
Indeed, the 1833 occupation is butterflied: better UK-UP relations in general, a more stable government overall and a clearer legal continuity between the Viceroyalty and the United Provinces mean that the UK doesn't feel the need or the urge to take the islands, since they can operate freely at the port anyway.
I was actually under the misguided impression that Lima was more vulnerable in the V2 map, until I tried superimposing them and realized that in V1 the border includes the inland approaches to Lima, while V2 places the border somewhere in the vicinity of Jauja. My other concern was that the Bay of Pisco, which roughly marks the southern border of the Liman coastal plain, had ended up split between the two, but I think that it's under Lima in both versions.
Yeah, a US/Canada relationship is what I've had in mind for UP/Chile relations for a while now. It helps in that sense that Chile has also avoided a lot of the trauma early in its history that both sent it down a more conservative path and forced it to become a more militarized society in general.
As for Argentina as the US of South America, I do want to stress that it's relative, and that the US is still going to pull away (quite rapidly) as the industrial revolution picks up steam. Even an enlarged Argentina lacks the easily accessible and massive coal and iron deposits that the US has right next door to its main population centers.
The most infuriating aspect of the United Provinces for the WASPs that promoted social darwinism and eugenics IOTL is its successful minority-ruled provinces, but I have "faith" in the ability of racists to be racist and reinterpret reality to fit their racist views - in this case, WASPs will highlight the anglophilic origins of the UP's system, and will, quite depressingly, likely see the success of native and black politicians as "proof" of the success (and necessity) of their ideas. If I'm completely honest, that belief is likely to be common among white criollos in the UP themselves.
But yeah, suffice it to say that the UP and its racial politics are very taboo in certain regions, like the American South. And they're catholics who tolerate and even support a native monarchy to boot!
For the future please don't eliminate Maradona!...so we can see Maradona and Francescoli for the national team togheter as well as Messi and Suarez
Oh man, Francesocoli and Maradona lifting a WC together, what a sight for my mind's eye. Tabárez managing a squad with players like Muslera, Godín, Messi, Suárez, Cavani, Di Maria, Agüero...
I was rereading my earlier response on Brazil, and felt like it raised a pretty important question: would Colombian republicanism outweigh their desire to seek an ally in Brazil? I know that this ultimately comes down to how sincere I make their republicanism as a motive behind their support for the Peruvian rebels, but it could also be the case that Brazil isn't necessarily interested in a rapprochement with the sponsors of an anti-monarchist revolution.
Another big issue in the region is the status of slavery: emancipation has been sped up in the vast majority of the continent, with slavery abolished from Cusco to Montevideo by 1830 ITTL (which is an improvement for Argentina - 1853 IOTL - and Paraguay - 1869 IOTL - and coincides with the OTL abolition of slavery in Uruguay - 1830 - and Bolivia - 1831). It's also around this time that the UK ramped up its international efforts to suppress the slave trade, getting Brazil to nominally ban the trade in 1831 and starting a 2-decade period of bilateral treaties expanding the international ban. Brazil and Colombia stand out as the exceptions: Brazil is still a slaver economy, and Colombia... well Colombia doesn't have much of a rush to abolish the practice ITTL either.
And of course, there's the Panic of 1837 hanging over the region like a Sword of Damocles. The Panic caused a 5-year depression in the US, and that's likely going to affect the region pretty heavily. All the better from a narrative standpoint - it means that the UP is in a period of political and economic turmoil just in time for the chartist movement to appear - but I want to be careful in how I treat the economic ramifications. My current guess, at least as far as the UP are concerned, is an uptick in urbanization as peasants get pushed off marginal lands in the interior (which, again, plays in nicely to the emergence of Platine chartists), probably larger-scale repeats of the Tucumán and Córdoba food riots alluded to in the last update, and the sudden end of Monteagudo's government in 1838 or 1840. Rosas probably becomes governor around this time.
EDIT: Only because I use these posts as an excuse to think out loud and use y'all as sounding boards for my ideas, I'm also thinking that - after Perú - Mexico is ripe for its own Republican revolutions; California and Texas are the obvious candidates. Also, should I try and do updates for other global powers - the US, the UK, France, Germany, Russia - at some point?
Another big issue in the region is the status of slavery: emancipation has been sped up in the vast majority of the continent, with slavery abolished from Cusco to Montevideo by 1830 ITTL (which is an improvement for Argentina - 1853 IOTL - and Paraguay - 1869 IOTL - and coincides with the OTL abolition of slavery in Uruguay - 1830 - and Bolivia - 1831). It's also around this time that the UK ramped up its international efforts to suppress the slave trade, getting Brazil to nominally ban the trade in 1831 and starting a 2-decade period of bilateral treaties expanding the international ban. Brazil and Colombia stand out as the exceptions: Brazil is still a slaver economy, and Colombia... well Colombia doesn't have much of a rush to abolish the practice ITTL either.
And of course, there's the Panic of 1837 hanging over the region like a Sword of Damocles. The Panic caused a 5-year depression in the US, and that's likely going to affect the region pretty heavily. All the better from a narrative standpoint - it means that the UP is in a period of political and economic turmoil just in time for the chartist movement to appear - but I want to be careful in how I treat the economic ramifications. My current guess, at least as far as the UP are concerned, is an uptick in urbanization as peasants get pushed off marginal lands in the interior (which, again, plays in nicely to the emergence of Platine chartists), probably larger-scale repeats of the Tucumán and Córdoba food riots alluded to in the last update, and the sudden end of Monteagudo's government in 1838 or 1840. Rosas probably becomes governor around this time.
EDIT: Only because I use these posts as an excuse to think out loud and use y'all as sounding boards for my ideas, I'm also thinking that - after Perú - Mexico is ripe for its own Republican revolutions; California and Texas are the obvious candidates. Also, should I try and do updates for other global powers - the US, the UK, France, Germany, Russia - at some point?
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This is very hyperbolic. If Argentina didn't fuck up we could have been Canada or Australia, maybe. I can say we could at least be Uruguay though.
But never the US, the US is literally a country running in easy mode. Big starting population, plenty of every resource, close enough to Europe to be economically viable but distant enough for any invasion to be extremely hard, nothing even close to peer enemies and plenty of territory for expansion (especially after stomping Mexico into submission). The UP van dream to be Japan, maybe a little better, but I can't see it reaching Great Power (nevermind US tier) anytime sooner than the 2050's or later (and that's assuming the American Empire collapses and opens the way for someone new).
So much this.
Argentina, Uruguay and Peru+Bolivia rarely get any love in any TL on this site. I think I've literally only seen Uruguay as part of footnotes (if at all) while Argentina exists to be part of a meme loser team (we always side with the "villain" of any TL. A German centric story? We are pro-British. A Briton wank? We suddenly are fascists. Nevermind all the many, many "and then Chile somehow conquers Patagonia and no one gives a fuck for some reason").
Honestly just the fact that Peru got ad much focus as it did would make this TL interesting. The fact that it is a River Plate successor state centric story makes it infinitely superior.
Honestly this is something a lit of people ignore when it comes to "Argentina could have been the US", even with the Japan comparisons as:
A) Japan does have a lot of coal and iron (relative to Argentina at least).
B) Argentina is far away from any worthwhile market.
Only insofar as they have any noticeable divergences/set ups for divergences or you want to do some exposition for anyone who may not be that familiar with their history.
Which is a shame really, and even then, it's not just those countries, it's really all of South America in general, even though Brazil gets a little more love when people actually remember South America exists. Now personally, I like Brazil about as much as Argentina, they're probably my two favorite South American nations (and given that Trinidad & Tobago, my parent's home country, has only really been independent for 50 years now, 51 about a week from now, I doubt we;ll be seeing a TL about them anytime soon.) So the fact that a lot of South American nations get focus, (especially the UP of LP) is a boon.
Yeah, the two maps that need to be considered when discussing the prospect of Argentina (of any size) becoming a world power at any point during the 1st or 2nd Industrial Revolution (basically, at any point from independence until WW2) are the following maps of iron and coal deposits:
The UP's potential as an industrial nation is pretty limited while coal is king and steel is the most important industrial product in the world. The country's wealth will be tied pretty heavily to its agricultural exports until oil, nitrates and copper start growing in importance around the turn of the century. EDIT: To the extent that the country will industrialize, it'll be light industry primarily for domestic consumption or heavier industry as the end point of an international supply chain.
Besides, being a great power is overrated; Canada does just fine in the world, and on current trajectory, the United Provinces are going to end up somewhere between OTL's Canada and Brazil.
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Yup, more or less how I see it.
Of course there is always the recourse of going into Colonial Adventurism!™. I mean it worked for Japan (for a while at least) and (kinda) the UK, though the puppetization of some of its neighbours and the conquest of part of Brazil would make more sense if that was the plan (and be even harder) but that's probably not what's going to happen unless some really messed up stuff happens during the next 40 years and/or the UP does really fucking well in economic and demographic growth (plus a stronger national unity).
So yeah I agree with your take (even if I think that a bigger starting population would make a small heavy industry and a relatively big light industry viable for the inner market consumption and some exports, mostly for neighboring countries/puppets/clients and some niche markets).
I mean, until not so long ago Canada was still a subject (even if a highly independent one) of the UK and their destiny very tightly tied to that of the Metropole. Until the IRL modern status quo happens (IF it happens) then being a middle power isn't really that good either unless you got a sugar daddy GP looking out for you or are a True Neutral like Switzerland. Even OTL Argentina was kinda comparable with Canada at the time but that didn't really last.
I think the best is to aim for the top and be content with however far you get. Being happy to be a second rate is how you get humiliated once or twice and then turn into fascists or worse.
Of course this is all out-of-unuverse knowledge so I don't expect the UP to act hyper competent just for the sake of it.
A big chunk of that is in the middle of the Amazonas and/or through mountainous country and basically inaccessible until the mid/end of the 20th century. Compare that to the US' "our Iron and coal are easily transportable by river and/or super close to our urban centers."
Of course you also have to take into account that having plentiful iron and coal is only one of many prerequisites to enter the big leagues (aka a developed powerful industrial nation) and useless if you don't have the others (population, stability, economy, etc).
To be fair, Brazil did kinda have the stability for the most part, at least in the days of the Empire (debatably though, given the many revolts and such but you could argue the same with the U.S.) though I do agree, it's also a matter of economy and population, of which since Brazil's industrial resources are locked behind deep jungle, and their population wasn't that big. By the time of the Empire's fall IOTL, it's population was just over 14 million, roughly the population of the U.S. by around 1833-35, and do note that this is the most populous nation in all of Latin America (yes I'm also including Mexico in this as well).
Well, South America is already divided into three huge territorial blocks, with only Chile really remaining as an avenue for expansion, and that's too tough a nut to crack for too little gain and with the added risk of alienating your only remaining friendly neighbor and pissing off the British who like them as much as they like the UP. It also has Patagonia as an outlet for that adventurism, whose conquest is going to occupy the better part of the 1840s, 50s and 60s. And we actually agree on the industrialization, though I could have phrased it better: the United Provinces isn't going to be exporting the ridiculous amounts of steel that even Brazil does, but it'll have a domestic steel industry that will be relatively competitive and allow it to at least satisfy some of its domestic demand locally, but it'll still ultimately depend on coal imports (from Brazil most likely, at least until Patagonian coal can replace it later in the century).
Light industry is going to be more common in general, since things like textile mills can spread quickly just with the easy access to fluvial power. I may in fact have underestimated just how much the Platine population could potentially grow, since TTL is going to include less internal conflict, leading to more natural growth and earlier waves of immigration, which would also combine with higher yields due to easy access to nitrates and guano for fertilizer, leading to more growth and more immigration and so on.
The United Provinces are very much in the UK's sphere of influence, with British banks playing a prominent role in the Platine economy and with British markets being one of the main destination for Platine exports. In that sense, at least during the 19th century, the United Provinces - much like Argentina after the consolidation of its modern state in the 1860s - is more or less a dominion of honor during this time, with good relations with London being more important than good relations with Washington (and there is in fact some animosity between the two, with the US having better relations with Colombia than the United Provinces). I would certainly call the UK Argentina's sugar daddy great power until at least WW1, and the situation isn't too different ITTL in that regard.
Of course, things will change in the 20th century, as they did IOTL; Argentina was able to exert considerable influence abroad for a nation its size, on the back of both its considerable prestige and its much-improved navy. The situation will be much better for the UP in this sense, and I wouldn't rule out the Caribbean and Central America turning into a three or four way tug-of-war between a rotating cast of USA, United Provinces, Colombia, France, the UK, Spain and maybe even Mexico.
Like others have said, a lot of it is inaccessible well into the 20th century. Beyond that, Brazil's economy was still oriented primarily towards the coast and its agricultural exports with high profit margins because of slave labor.
This is one place where the UP will actually have an advantage over most of its neighbors, its mineral wealth is more easily accessible, and there's plenty of potential locked away next to one of its major population centers, Collao.
18 - The Panic of 1837 and the Platine Economic Transition
Chapter 15 - The Panic of 1837 and the Platine Economic Transition
The Panic of 1837 started in the US, but its effects reverberated throughout the Western hemisphere, including the United Provinces.
When the Bank of England raised its interest rates at the end of 1836 in response to a severe decline in the American cotton and wheat markets, the change did not impact the United Provinces right away: Platine wheat harvests continued to boom, even benefitting from the sudden collapse of American wheat harvests due to a combination of pests and harsh weather. But the country’s financial sector was fragile and heavily leveraged to both American and British banks, so when the effects did hit, they hit twice as hard: a string of bank closures in New York took down several branches in Buenos Aires, and so began the Panic of 1837 in the United Provinces.
Much like the Panic of 1825, the most immediate consequence was the rapid deterioration of the national government’s finances. With hundreds of thousands of small-denomination Incan War bonds still in circulation, this aggravated the impact of bank runs, as holders of the bonds tried to cash in on them in a desperate hunt for silver and gold. The value of the peso crashed, setting off a chain reaction of defaults and bankruptcies, and leading to hundreds of thousands of peasants forced off their land by crushing debts.
As the cities swelled with the influx of the newly destitute, food prices spiked again, leading to even more riots than the Incan War: in addition to Córdoba and Tucumán, the food riots would spread to Salta, Santiago del Estero, Mendoza, with less violent but equally massive demonstrations across Collao, the region which had most purchased war bonds. The Littoral and Buenos Aires would be spared the worst of the food riots, with Buenos Aires’ population swelling above 100,000 during this period, but the lowland region would be hit by problems of its own as the economic crisis brought Monteagudo’s government crashing down in 1838, ending the Morenist monopoly in Buenos Aires with the election of the Federalist Juan Manuel de Rosas as governor.
Rosas’ triumph at the elections had depended heavily on his party’s ability to better mobilize the impoverished new arrivals to the city, appealing to promises of land grants and direct aid for the poor in contrast to the more mercantile concerns of the Buenos Aires Liberals. This signaled a broader shift towards the Federalists that would last the rest of the decade, creating fertile ground for the ideas of the nascent Chartist movement in the UK to take root.
Arriving in the United Provinces through the ports of Buenos Aires and Montevideo starting in 1839, the movement garnered immense sympathy quickly, with universal male suffrage, secret ballots, the abolition of property qualifications for election and the payment of members proving the most popular of the 6 Reforms of the People’s Charter. Rosas’ influence in Buenos Aires would dilute some of its influence on the local Federalist party, but Chartist sentiment would spread like wildfire in the rest of the party, with Uruguay, Santa Fé and Misiones granting universal male suffrage after the 1840 elections.
The reforms would spread to the rest of the country in fits and with varying degrees of implementation: Buenos Aires would abolish property qualifications for voting, but would keep them in place for candidates; Collao would abolish property qualifications for both voting and candidates, but would restrict the franchise in other ways, including barring the unemployed or the homeless from voting; while in the interior, poll taxes replaced property qualifications.
But even as the elections shifted from the Cabildos themselves to polling stations, significant barriers to participation persisted. The two most important ones were literacy tests and the public vote itself: literacy tests disenfranchised huge swathes of the country’s poor, while the custom of having to publicly announce a vote created a system ripe for intimidation and violence. Once contained to occasional brawls when the Cabildos were in session, it would spread with the franchise: although fatalities were rare, stabbings and beatings were a common part of elections.
The 1840s would be a period of dramatic change in the country, coinciding with a global period of upheaval that would lead to Europe’s Springtime of the People in 1848. All three major parties would grapple with these changes, forced to adapt or die: none could truly arrest the advance of the Platine chartists, but the parties compromised with their electorates where they could. The Catholic Party took on a much harsher social conservative stance, becoming further intertwined with the clergy and the strict defense of traditionalism. The Liberals put up little resistance to the expansion of the franchise, but its predominantly bourgeois leadership remained attached to elitist prejudices that inspired restrictions like literacy tests and work requirements. The Federalists for their part would grow increasingly agrarian, a logical outgrowth of their preexisting popularity among the class of small landowners they had helped create.
As the economy recovered, the shift towards the lowlands accelerated, especially as unrest in Europe increased the flow of immigrants. The sudden influx of people into the cities created a mass of low-wage workers that led to the creation of hundreds of small manufactories cropping up along the Paraná River and the River Plate. But the most significant transformation brought about by the economic recovery starting in 1842 was the expansion of the railroad, with over 400 kilometers of track by 1850[1].
An archive photo showing the first locomotive to operate in the United Provinces, connecting the port of Buenos Aires to the ranching towns to its west.[*]
The impact of the railroad on the United Provinces - and on Latin America in general - cannot be overstated: it did more to dramatically transform Platine society than the local Chartist movements, cutting down travel times and leading to booming exports both along the River Plate Basin and the mining regions of Collao. These would feed into each other, with nitrates from the Pacific coast contributing to record harvests on the Atlantic coast, with the drop in food prices leading to real wage increases in both regions.
The newfound prosperity would lead to significant cultural shifts, as the country’s burgeoning capitalist class sought to imitate their European and North American peers. The return of the Liberal party to power in Buenos Aires leads to a new series of public works, but it contrasted with the increase in waterborne epidemics due to the rapid growth of the city’s population. A severe cholera epidemic in 1852 led to a shift in the city’s landscape, as the city’s growing upper class moved to greener pasture in the north of the city and filled the new quarters with buildings constructed in the modern European styles, offering a sharp contrast with the colonial architecture in the old city.
Collao’s nouveau riche would spur a similar architectural revolution in Chuquisaca, which consolidated its position as the nation’s second largest city during this period and had 70,000 inhabitants by the 1851 census. Inca-inspired cut stone would take the place of the European-inspired grand marble palaces, consolidating an iconic Neoincan[2] architectural style that Cusco would go on to make famous with the construction of a new palace for the Sapa Inka in this style in 1849.
Asunción and Montevideo would see beautification projects of their own, with the arrival of the railroad dramatically increasing the exports out of both cities and leading to the rapid growth of the local bourgeoisie. The growing cities of the Argentine interior - Córdoba, Tucumán and Salta leading the pack, with a combined population of nearly 100,000 between the three in 1851 - would experience radical changes of their own: operating as transit hubs along the Pacific-Atlantic route, their populations boomed as the cities sprawled, and they would popularize a neocolonial style that would set them apart from the export-oriented provinces of the North and East.
With the rapid growth in exports, the national government’s income boomed, and the country would push its southern boundaries rapidly as a result, racing against Chilean expansion as the two governments advanced as quickly as they could lay down tracks, reaching the Magellan Strait only days apart. The impact of this race on Patagonia’s natives would be catastrophic, with the native population in the South declining by nearly 50% in the upcoming decades.[3]
The United Provinces were a different country altogether by the 1850s: the process of democratization would continue throughout the rest of the century, and the country’s gradual industrialization picked up speed in that decade. It would also be a period of unprecedented economic stability, as the trends continued with only relatively minor fluctuations until the Panic of 1873 plunged the world into a global economic crisis.
A Platine Real coin, also called "Piece of 8", pegged to the value of the Spanish Real since independence.[4] --
[1] The first public railway is a decade and a half ahead of schedule, but I’ve kept the growth of the network on the conservative end for now. For reference, the US rail mileage increased from 39.8 in 1830 to 2,755.18 in 1840, and would more than triple to 8,571.48 by 1850. For comparison, Argentina’s network expanded from 9.8km in 1860 to 722km in 1870 and would quadruple to 2,516km a decade later. The biggest change from this is that it’ll also mean that the railroad will arrive in Uruguay, Paraguay and Bolivia much earlier than IOTL, and will be integrated into the Atlantic-export network much sooner.
This is occurring at the height of Railway Mania in the UK, so there’s a lot of capital available for railway projects (at least during a brief window, which will be followed by a series of bankruptcies and mergers in the Platine rail industry, more frequently under British than Platine ownership); the rail network is likely to experience the same sort of explosive growth after the 1850s.
[2] I am heart broken that I’ve been unable to find any examples of this style in my searches, but think it would be practically guaranteed in a TL where neoincan sentiment is stronger and there is a local capitalist class that is directly inspired by it (although they might resent it being called neoincan in Collao, since they could rightfully claim that - if anything - it’s inspired by Tiwanaku architecture, which is located in Collao).
[3] Things are better for the “non-integrated” natives to the extent that tribes like the Ona and the Charrúa haven’t been literally exterminated, but the UP remain a post-colonial nation and its treatment of subjugated tribes was frequently just as brutal as the Spanish subjugation of the region had been. There are Quechua and Guaraní soldiers in the army regiments accompanying the railroad, but they’re still slaughtering the locals that resist Platine encroachment.
[4] The Spanish Real remains one of the most widely circulating currencies on the planet at this point, considered legal tender from the US to the River Plate. There are a lot of incentives for the United Provinces to maintain its "domestic" currency pegged to its value, although as IOTL, there is a second, paper money that is frequently used for internal trade. I haven't come up with a good reason to change the name, but I'm going on record and saying that I hate the names "Peso Moneda Corriente" and "Peso Fuerte". I'm currently leaning towards the United Provinces adopting the name "Peso Esterlino".
[*] Dubbed "La Porteña", this is OTL, but ahead of schedule.
The Panic of 1837 started in the US, but its effects reverberated throughout the Western hemisphere, including the United Provinces.
When the Bank of England raised its interest rates at the end of 1836 in response to a severe decline in the American cotton and wheat markets, the change did not impact the United Provinces right away: Platine wheat harvests continued to boom, even benefitting from the sudden collapse of American wheat harvests due to a combination of pests and harsh weather. But the country’s financial sector was fragile and heavily leveraged to both American and British banks, so when the effects did hit, they hit twice as hard: a string of bank closures in New York took down several branches in Buenos Aires, and so began the Panic of 1837 in the United Provinces.
Much like the Panic of 1825, the most immediate consequence was the rapid deterioration of the national government’s finances. With hundreds of thousands of small-denomination Incan War bonds still in circulation, this aggravated the impact of bank runs, as holders of the bonds tried to cash in on them in a desperate hunt for silver and gold. The value of the peso crashed, setting off a chain reaction of defaults and bankruptcies, and leading to hundreds of thousands of peasants forced off their land by crushing debts.
As the cities swelled with the influx of the newly destitute, food prices spiked again, leading to even more riots than the Incan War: in addition to Córdoba and Tucumán, the food riots would spread to Salta, Santiago del Estero, Mendoza, with less violent but equally massive demonstrations across Collao, the region which had most purchased war bonds. The Littoral and Buenos Aires would be spared the worst of the food riots, with Buenos Aires’ population swelling above 100,000 during this period, but the lowland region would be hit by problems of its own as the economic crisis brought Monteagudo’s government crashing down in 1838, ending the Morenist monopoly in Buenos Aires with the election of the Federalist Juan Manuel de Rosas as governor.
Rosas’ triumph at the elections had depended heavily on his party’s ability to better mobilize the impoverished new arrivals to the city, appealing to promises of land grants and direct aid for the poor in contrast to the more mercantile concerns of the Buenos Aires Liberals. This signaled a broader shift towards the Federalists that would last the rest of the decade, creating fertile ground for the ideas of the nascent Chartist movement in the UK to take root.
Arriving in the United Provinces through the ports of Buenos Aires and Montevideo starting in 1839, the movement garnered immense sympathy quickly, with universal male suffrage, secret ballots, the abolition of property qualifications for election and the payment of members proving the most popular of the 6 Reforms of the People’s Charter. Rosas’ influence in Buenos Aires would dilute some of its influence on the local Federalist party, but Chartist sentiment would spread like wildfire in the rest of the party, with Uruguay, Santa Fé and Misiones granting universal male suffrage after the 1840 elections.
The reforms would spread to the rest of the country in fits and with varying degrees of implementation: Buenos Aires would abolish property qualifications for voting, but would keep them in place for candidates; Collao would abolish property qualifications for both voting and candidates, but would restrict the franchise in other ways, including barring the unemployed or the homeless from voting; while in the interior, poll taxes replaced property qualifications.
But even as the elections shifted from the Cabildos themselves to polling stations, significant barriers to participation persisted. The two most important ones were literacy tests and the public vote itself: literacy tests disenfranchised huge swathes of the country’s poor, while the custom of having to publicly announce a vote created a system ripe for intimidation and violence. Once contained to occasional brawls when the Cabildos were in session, it would spread with the franchise: although fatalities were rare, stabbings and beatings were a common part of elections.
The 1840s would be a period of dramatic change in the country, coinciding with a global period of upheaval that would lead to Europe’s Springtime of the People in 1848. All three major parties would grapple with these changes, forced to adapt or die: none could truly arrest the advance of the Platine chartists, but the parties compromised with their electorates where they could. The Catholic Party took on a much harsher social conservative stance, becoming further intertwined with the clergy and the strict defense of traditionalism. The Liberals put up little resistance to the expansion of the franchise, but its predominantly bourgeois leadership remained attached to elitist prejudices that inspired restrictions like literacy tests and work requirements. The Federalists for their part would grow increasingly agrarian, a logical outgrowth of their preexisting popularity among the class of small landowners they had helped create.
As the economy recovered, the shift towards the lowlands accelerated, especially as unrest in Europe increased the flow of immigrants. The sudden influx of people into the cities created a mass of low-wage workers that led to the creation of hundreds of small manufactories cropping up along the Paraná River and the River Plate. But the most significant transformation brought about by the economic recovery starting in 1842 was the expansion of the railroad, with over 400 kilometers of track by 1850[1].
An archive photo showing the first locomotive to operate in the United Provinces, connecting the port of Buenos Aires to the ranching towns to its west.[*]
The impact of the railroad on the United Provinces - and on Latin America in general - cannot be overstated: it did more to dramatically transform Platine society than the local Chartist movements, cutting down travel times and leading to booming exports both along the River Plate Basin and the mining regions of Collao. These would feed into each other, with nitrates from the Pacific coast contributing to record harvests on the Atlantic coast, with the drop in food prices leading to real wage increases in both regions.
The newfound prosperity would lead to significant cultural shifts, as the country’s burgeoning capitalist class sought to imitate their European and North American peers. The return of the Liberal party to power in Buenos Aires leads to a new series of public works, but it contrasted with the increase in waterborne epidemics due to the rapid growth of the city’s population. A severe cholera epidemic in 1852 led to a shift in the city’s landscape, as the city’s growing upper class moved to greener pasture in the north of the city and filled the new quarters with buildings constructed in the modern European styles, offering a sharp contrast with the colonial architecture in the old city.
Collao’s nouveau riche would spur a similar architectural revolution in Chuquisaca, which consolidated its position as the nation’s second largest city during this period and had 70,000 inhabitants by the 1851 census. Inca-inspired cut stone would take the place of the European-inspired grand marble palaces, consolidating an iconic Neoincan[2] architectural style that Cusco would go on to make famous with the construction of a new palace for the Sapa Inka in this style in 1849.
Asunción and Montevideo would see beautification projects of their own, with the arrival of the railroad dramatically increasing the exports out of both cities and leading to the rapid growth of the local bourgeoisie. The growing cities of the Argentine interior - Córdoba, Tucumán and Salta leading the pack, with a combined population of nearly 100,000 between the three in 1851 - would experience radical changes of their own: operating as transit hubs along the Pacific-Atlantic route, their populations boomed as the cities sprawled, and they would popularize a neocolonial style that would set them apart from the export-oriented provinces of the North and East.
With the rapid growth in exports, the national government’s income boomed, and the country would push its southern boundaries rapidly as a result, racing against Chilean expansion as the two governments advanced as quickly as they could lay down tracks, reaching the Magellan Strait only days apart. The impact of this race on Patagonia’s natives would be catastrophic, with the native population in the South declining by nearly 50% in the upcoming decades.[3]
The United Provinces were a different country altogether by the 1850s: the process of democratization would continue throughout the rest of the century, and the country’s gradual industrialization picked up speed in that decade. It would also be a period of unprecedented economic stability, as the trends continued with only relatively minor fluctuations until the Panic of 1873 plunged the world into a global economic crisis.
A Platine Real coin, also called "Piece of 8", pegged to the value of the Spanish Real since independence.[4]
[1] The first public railway is a decade and a half ahead of schedule, but I’ve kept the growth of the network on the conservative end for now. For reference, the US rail mileage increased from 39.8 in 1830 to 2,755.18 in 1840, and would more than triple to 8,571.48 by 1850. For comparison, Argentina’s network expanded from 9.8km in 1860 to 722km in 1870 and would quadruple to 2,516km a decade later. The biggest change from this is that it’ll also mean that the railroad will arrive in Uruguay, Paraguay and Bolivia much earlier than IOTL, and will be integrated into the Atlantic-export network much sooner.
This is occurring at the height of Railway Mania in the UK, so there’s a lot of capital available for railway projects (at least during a brief window, which will be followed by a series of bankruptcies and mergers in the Platine rail industry, more frequently under British than Platine ownership); the rail network is likely to experience the same sort of explosive growth after the 1850s.
[2] I am heart broken that I’ve been unable to find any examples of this style in my searches, but think it would be practically guaranteed in a TL where neoincan sentiment is stronger and there is a local capitalist class that is directly inspired by it (although they might resent it being called neoincan in Collao, since they could rightfully claim that - if anything - it’s inspired by Tiwanaku architecture, which is located in Collao).
[3] Things are better for the “non-integrated” natives to the extent that tribes like the Ona and the Charrúa haven’t been literally exterminated, but the UP remain a post-colonial nation and its treatment of subjugated tribes was frequently just as brutal as the Spanish subjugation of the region had been. There are Quechua and Guaraní soldiers in the army regiments accompanying the railroad, but they’re still slaughtering the locals that resist Platine encroachment.
[4] The Spanish Real remains one of the most widely circulating currencies on the planet at this point, considered legal tender from the US to the River Plate. There are a lot of incentives for the United Provinces to maintain its "domestic" currency pegged to its value, although as IOTL, there is a second, paper money that is frequently used for internal trade. I haven't come up with a good reason to change the name, but I'm going on record and saying that I hate the names "Peso Moneda Corriente" and "Peso Fuerte". I'm currently leaning towards the United Provinces adopting the name "Peso Esterlino".
[*] Dubbed "La Porteña", this is OTL, but ahead of schedule.
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Another good update, it's good to see the beginnings of light industry in Argentina.
I just caught up with the discussion on coal and iron resources; while iron looks relatively straightforward to access via railroad, everyone's right that coal is going to be somewhat more difficult. Iron seems straightforward enough as it's near the Argentine-Bolivian border which is going to be far more populous TTL. But on coal, I think there's a couple of choices from who to trade with for it, in terms of probability:
1) Brazil
Brazilian coal seems to be close to the UP's borders and accessing it seems very feasible; there's a deposit in what remains of Rio Grande Do Sul and even more in Santa Catarina. Now, when I say trade, I really mean carve off of Brazil because relying on your biggest rival for South American hegemony for your primary coal resource seems like a very poor idea. At this time Rio Grande Do Sul should still be lightly populated all things considered and I think there's potential to snag it, should the stars align. If you want to get really ambitious, Santa Catarina is also on the table as it only started receiving significant European immigration in the 1850s with Germany and 1875 with Italy. With the right type of cheeky war or political instability in Brazil, you could make a case for this, especially as the Spanish used to rule Santa Catarina island as a loose throwback for nationalistic mythos justifying it
2) The United States
It cannot be understated how large America's coal reserves are. And what's more, large amounts of it are easily accessible by navigable rivers. Historically, America hasn't had any major trade partners for its coal as most of its neighbors haven't had direct need of it or produce their own. But with the rise of the UP, there's now a major market for coal that can be readily supplied by sea, either by sailing it from the Midwest down the Mississippi or via shipping it from the Atlantic Seaboard. Either option works just fine, and I imagine that it's going to be quite a reliable income stream even if it's not an incredibly hot commodity in the grand scheme of things.
3) South Africa
Picture this; Brazil and Gran Colombia are hostile, and the Americans are trying to fleece the UP with their coal prices. So, UP prospectors(who at this point are likely considered among some of the best in the world what with the need to prospect over so much land in the UP and the Inca Empire) go out into the world in search of coal that can be accessed cheaply or easily. I imagine a lot of attention is going to be paid to Patagonia, which isn't going to turn up much. But if you widen the search a bit and head overseas, Southern Africa has quite a bit of coal, specifically in what's OTL Eastern Cape, Swaziland, and the Orange Free State. And more to be found in Zimbabwe and Mozambique, all of which is easily accessible and is nowadays exported via a port in Zululand. This gives Argentina both a narrow time frame but also options through which trade for coal can be arranged either with the British themselves, Boers, Zulus, other South Africans, etc. While the British do consider South Africa their sphere of influence, I don't think trade between South Africa(the region) and the UP will be an issue so long as the UP is careful not to step on their toes. But there is a small window of opportunity before 1875 to get involved in Zululand aggressively, establish a production chain of coal from Zululand to the UP, and either secure the independence of rump Zululand, or at least secure concessions from the British guaranteeing the South Africa to UP coal trade as-is before the conquest of the Zulu.
There's also a scenario involving Mozambique, but due to the closeness between Portugal and Brazil's royal houses, I'd hesitate to really consider it an option, especially with how underdeveloped Mozambique is at this time. The same can be said for Zululand when it comes to extracting coal, but at least there's no strings attached like with the Portuguese
4) Gran Colombia
Gran Colombia definitely has the coal reserves to export and is accessible by sea, though as with all sea trade, having to sail along the Brazilian coast is less than ideal if Brazil is hostile. Though frustratingly, Gran Colombia is also a political rival and thus going to be a poor choice from which to trade with for the resource. But if southern Brazil is not an option at all and relations with Gran Colombia improve, this option is on the table again
5) Republic of Peru
Peru does have notable coal reserves in its north, but the quality isn't thought highly of. It's got a reputation for being highly sulfuric in content and thus imports coal in the modern day to run metalworking factories; local coal resources are largely used for cement production. Peru imports coal from Venezuela and Colombia, in fact. You're far better off with trading for coal directly with Gran Colombia if you're shopping among hostile states, and get the good stuff
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I know I'm late on the map discussion, but I think that there should be something of an adjustment to the Peruvian borders. Since the Peruvian Civil War essentially turned into Natives vs. Criollos with Mestizos split among them, I'm surprised North Peru didn't lose more of the Andes, as the Central Andes would have been in the pockets of the royalists by default. As a rule of thumb, Criollos were concentrated on the coasts and the natives in the Andes. Consider this modern-day map showing only Quechua distribution, nevermind other native peoples:
Since the Criollos are the ones rebelling, the Inca would have held the advantage and loyalty of the Central Andes and I'd imagine that occupation by Gran Colombia would have been bloody. I know it was touched on in vague terms that there was an insurgency in the Peruvian countryside, but wanted to bring this to attention. Most of the atrocities against the royalists that the Criollo army could commit would be here. But once La Oroya falls to the Inca, I don't think there's much stopping the Inca from running over the Central Andes up to Moyobamba, especially if the Platine press has been covering Criollo atrocities.
Anyways, what I was ultimately getting at is that I'm surprised to see a 50/50 split between north and south when the rebels are strictly a coastal people and the Andes would have been pre-advantaged towards the royalists. But it makes sense in that it'd be where most of the Colombians would center their attention. I think the map is fine for the scenario given, but I'm holding my breath on a counteruprising in the future in the Andes, I don't think the Inca are going to abandon the people or their claims any time soon.
I just caught up with the discussion on coal and iron resources; while iron looks relatively straightforward to access via railroad, everyone's right that coal is going to be somewhat more difficult. Iron seems straightforward enough as it's near the Argentine-Bolivian border which is going to be far more populous TTL. But on coal, I think there's a couple of choices from who to trade with for it, in terms of probability:
1) Brazil
Brazilian coal seems to be close to the UP's borders and accessing it seems very feasible; there's a deposit in what remains of Rio Grande Do Sul and even more in Santa Catarina. Now, when I say trade, I really mean carve off of Brazil because relying on your biggest rival for South American hegemony for your primary coal resource seems like a very poor idea. At this time Rio Grande Do Sul should still be lightly populated all things considered and I think there's potential to snag it, should the stars align. If you want to get really ambitious, Santa Catarina is also on the table as it only started receiving significant European immigration in the 1850s with Germany and 1875 with Italy. With the right type of cheeky war or political instability in Brazil, you could make a case for this, especially as the Spanish used to rule Santa Catarina island as a loose throwback for nationalistic mythos justifying it
2) The United States
It cannot be understated how large America's coal reserves are. And what's more, large amounts of it are easily accessible by navigable rivers. Historically, America hasn't had any major trade partners for its coal as most of its neighbors haven't had direct need of it or produce their own. But with the rise of the UP, there's now a major market for coal that can be readily supplied by sea, either by sailing it from the Midwest down the Mississippi or via shipping it from the Atlantic Seaboard. Either option works just fine, and I imagine that it's going to be quite a reliable income stream even if it's not an incredibly hot commodity in the grand scheme of things.
3) South Africa
Picture this; Brazil and Gran Colombia are hostile, and the Americans are trying to fleece the UP with their coal prices. So, UP prospectors(who at this point are likely considered among some of the best in the world what with the need to prospect over so much land in the UP and the Inca Empire) go out into the world in search of coal that can be accessed cheaply or easily. I imagine a lot of attention is going to be paid to Patagonia, which isn't going to turn up much. But if you widen the search a bit and head overseas, Southern Africa has quite a bit of coal, specifically in what's OTL Eastern Cape, Swaziland, and the Orange Free State. And more to be found in Zimbabwe and Mozambique, all of which is easily accessible and is nowadays exported via a port in Zululand. This gives Argentina both a narrow time frame but also options through which trade for coal can be arranged either with the British themselves, Boers, Zulus, other South Africans, etc. While the British do consider South Africa their sphere of influence, I don't think trade between South Africa(the region) and the UP will be an issue so long as the UP is careful not to step on their toes. But there is a small window of opportunity before 1875 to get involved in Zululand aggressively, establish a production chain of coal from Zululand to the UP, and either secure the independence of rump Zululand, or at least secure concessions from the British guaranteeing the South Africa to UP coal trade as-is before the conquest of the Zulu.
There's also a scenario involving Mozambique, but due to the closeness between Portugal and Brazil's royal houses, I'd hesitate to really consider it an option, especially with how underdeveloped Mozambique is at this time. The same can be said for Zululand when it comes to extracting coal, but at least there's no strings attached like with the Portuguese
4) Gran Colombia
Gran Colombia definitely has the coal reserves to export and is accessible by sea, though as with all sea trade, having to sail along the Brazilian coast is less than ideal if Brazil is hostile. Though frustratingly, Gran Colombia is also a political rival and thus going to be a poor choice from which to trade with for the resource. But if southern Brazil is not an option at all and relations with Gran Colombia improve, this option is on the table again
5) Republic of Peru
Peru does have notable coal reserves in its north, but the quality isn't thought highly of. It's got a reputation for being highly sulfuric in content and thus imports coal in the modern day to run metalworking factories; local coal resources are largely used for cement production. Peru imports coal from Venezuela and Colombia, in fact. You're far better off with trading for coal directly with Gran Colombia if you're shopping among hostile states, and get the good stuff
-------------------------
I know I'm late on the map discussion, but I think that there should be something of an adjustment to the Peruvian borders. Since the Peruvian Civil War essentially turned into Natives vs. Criollos with Mestizos split among them, I'm surprised North Peru didn't lose more of the Andes, as the Central Andes would have been in the pockets of the royalists by default. As a rule of thumb, Criollos were concentrated on the coasts and the natives in the Andes. Consider this modern-day map showing only Quechua distribution, nevermind other native peoples:
Since the Criollos are the ones rebelling, the Inca would have held the advantage and loyalty of the Central Andes and I'd imagine that occupation by Gran Colombia would have been bloody. I know it was touched on in vague terms that there was an insurgency in the Peruvian countryside, but wanted to bring this to attention. Most of the atrocities against the royalists that the Criollo army could commit would be here. But once La Oroya falls to the Inca, I don't think there's much stopping the Inca from running over the Central Andes up to Moyobamba, especially if the Platine press has been covering Criollo atrocities.
Anyways, what I was ultimately getting at is that I'm surprised to see a 50/50 split between north and south when the rebels are strictly a coastal people and the Andes would have been pre-advantaged towards the royalists. But it makes sense in that it'd be where most of the Colombians would center their attention. I think the map is fine for the scenario given, but I'm holding my breath on a counteruprising in the future in the Andes, I don't think the Inca are going to abandon the people or their claims any time soon.
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This reminds me of an alternative split that I had in mind, but which - given the disposition of forces as I wrote them and the battles as I described them - seemed better but unrealistic as an outcome of the war I'd written (at least at the end of the 1833-1835 civil war): a coastal criollo nation, stretching from Tumbes to Pisco, with the highlands and the southern ports in Arequipa that the Platine navy and army could secure quickly remaining under Royalist control.
It certainly deserves more than just a "word of god" in reply, but the Republic of Perú's default that I hinted at in the last update on the topic - and which Panic of 1837 sped up - would be the right time for such an uprising to take place, since neither the UP nor Colombia would be in any position to intervene, which in this case would be a more significant problem for Lima than Cusco.
The two reasons that I can think of to justify the split ex post are 1) that Riva-Agüero's loyalties may have in fact lied with Lima, but his garrison was too surrounded by Royalist populations for him to do so publicly, and by the time the Colombian army had arrived, the opportunity to pick a side had passed and he was holed up because otherwise his soldiers would shoot at each other the moment they left barracks and 2) with the Colombian army still operational and with heavy losses both in the capture of La Oroya and the failed assault on Lima, the Platine troops refuse to go further and the Cuscan army is in no condition to do so on its own.
And thank you for the comment and critique, this is precisely why I posted the maps with an emphasis on the split!
EDIT: A rough mock-up of the border I'm describing (I did this free hand with a topographical map underneath, I'd follow OTL internal borders in a final version).
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A little economic bump is just what the UP needs. A little toughening comes in handy ,especially with sich niche and vulnerable markets. At least until local banks start appearing or the British decided that the UP is their BFF.
Also relating to the native loyalties. The truth is taht for a native an incan monarch is probably not that different from a criollo republican. At the end of the day a guy you don't know and who lives far away will be your boss and you will still have the same shitty (or not) life. If anything their loyalty is probably to their territory (neighboring towns, cities, etc) and that will lead who they follow.
So I don't think a lot of natives siding with the Republic is that weird, especially when the Republic was born (nominally at least) because they were against a more powerful monarchy and instead (nominally again) favored democracy.
Also relating to the native loyalties. The truth is taht for a native an incan monarch is probably not that different from a criollo republican. At the end of the day a guy you don't know and who lives far away will be your boss and you will still have the same shitty (or not) life. If anything their loyalty is probably to their territory (neighboring towns, cities, etc) and that will lead who they follow.
So I don't think a lot of natives siding with the Republic is that weird, especially when the Republic was born (nominally at least) because they were against a more powerful monarchy and instead (nominally again) favored democracy.
I think that you're underestimating the significance of the Incan restoration ITTL, not just as the stated end goal of a revolution that had considerably more visible native leadership than OTL (much of that leadership was snuffed out along with the Cuzco Rebellion in 1814), but as an incredibly powerful symbol and rallying point. Yupanqui II in particular has been outspoken on the subject, and is very well connected among not just the native population, but also their elites and the surviving nobles; he's been speaking out about since representing Perú at the Cortes in Spain. Picture a Napoleon III type of figure, immensely popular with the "common man" so to speak even before his coronation, and a much easier figure to love than an amorphous (and violently racist) criollo republic.
And keep in mind, the rebels did not rise up against the threat of a powerful monarchy (Yupanqui helped draft the constitution, and didn't terribly mind the arrangement), but against the threat to their hegemony because of his plans to move the throne away from the Republican's reach.