A New World Wreathed in Freedom - An Argentine Revolution TL

So, to tease some of the content for the next update while I think out loud about the implications: while writing about the development of the provinces and their shifting role in government, I was suddenly inspired by the possibility of a second party system, as the heterogeneous Federalist coalition splinters between anti-centralist radicals and conservatives opposed to the loss of privileges and power to the national government.

The North swung away from the Liberals as they were perceived as centralists, but it'll shift away just as hard from the Federalists as soon as they're perceived as conservatives (which in this context just means tied to the church or the landowners), and one of the first signs of this conflict will be a radically progressive liberal government in Buenos Aires in response to its loss of influence in the national cabinet. I've currently given this honor to Bernardino Rivadavia, who could conceivably end up as governor ITTL and whose prominence in Buenos Aires IOTL is evidence of the longevity of morenist (to the extent that Rivadavia could be called one) predominance in the city. I am, however, more than open to suggestions for different candidates, including a flirtation with making Moreno himself take the post out of frustration with the direction the national government was taking.
 
I have a question... What 'd happened in this TL, to Rosas? Given that the OTL course of events and/or factors that 'd have had allowed for him to rise to the political preeminence 'd have been butterflied... Could be possible to suppose that he is (and will continue on to be) 'only' one of the more important and the richest ranchers of the Be As province whose Political influence, would be only local/provincial...
 
Well, I'm for one glad to see Gran Colombia alive and well. My only nitpick is that in a world where Gran Colombia survived it wouldn't be Gran Colombia and Grancolombian, but simply Colombia and Colombian instead.
 
Well, I'm for one glad to see Gran Colombia alive and well. My only nitpick is that in a world where Gran Colombia survived it wouldn't be Gran Colombia and Grancolombian, but simply Colombia and Colombian instead.
It would be gran if get carribean island or colonies but yeah would be just Colombia
 
I have a question... What 'd happened in this TL, to Rosas? Given that the OTL course of events and/or factors that 'd have had allowed for him to rise to the political preeminence 'd have been butterflied... Could be possible to suppose that he is (and will continue on to be) 'only' one of the more important and the richest ranchers of the Be As province whose Political influence, would be only local/provincial...
Rosas is too prominent and well-connected to butterfly away, but his political career ITTL has been stalled because of the survival of Moreno and his faction's lasting influence in Bs As. He becomes a Federalist ITTL but he is one of the uncomfortable members who straddles the line between some genuine belief in land reform and provincial autonomy but also a zealous defense of his own class and political privileges. The partisan landscape is going to shift dramatically in the 1830s, which is going to give him a time to shine, as his strain of federalism gets new adherents as other powerful interests in Bs As find they like Federalist national governments because it means a more powerful Bs As government.
Well, I'm for one glad to see Gran Colombia alive and well. My only nitpick is that in a world where Gran Colombia survived it wouldn't be Gran Colombia and Grancolombian, but simply Colombia and Colombian instead.
It would be gran if get carribean island or colonies but yeah would be just Colombia
I think the Dominican Republic considered joining Colombia in OTL...
Santo Domingo avoids getting annexed by Haiti because Colombia is in better shape and not bogged down in a years-long war in the south, but I'll make sure to correct it and refer to it as just Colombia from now on.

Now, the matter of Incan restoration is going to be on the back burner while I work on the 1830 round up, but the debate is still raging in Perú, with the likely coronation taking place in the mid-1820s (the time of a lot of constitutional conventions IOTL in the region) and two candidates in the running: one is Dionisio Inca Yupanqui, one-time deputy to the Spanish Cortes in 1812 and a long-time supporter of native emancipation in Perú, he's 61 years old upon Perú's independence; the other is Juan Bautista Túpac Amaru, a long time political prisoner in Spain who's recently returned to the continent and whose main claim to fame is his relation to Tupác Amaru II, who led a rebellion agaist the Spanish in the 1780s, but his age is a concern, as he's pushing 80 when he arrives in Buenos Aires in 1822.
 
Rosas is too prominent and well-connected to butterfly away, but his political career ITTL has been stalled because of the survival of Moreno and his faction's lasting influence in Bs As. He becomes a Federalist ITTL but he is one of the uncomfortable members who straddles the line between some genuine belief in land reform and provincial autonomy but also a zealous defense of his own class and political privileges. The partisan landscape is going to shift dramatically in the 1830s, which is going to give him a time to shine, as his strain of federalism gets new adherents as other powerful interests in Bs As find they like Federalist national governments because it means a more powerful Bs As government.
Sorry if I'm a bit slow, but Bs As, is Buenos Aires, right?

Now, the matter of Incan restoration is going to be on the back burner while I work on the 1830 round up, but the debate is still raging in Perú, with the likely coronation taking place in the mid-1820s (the time of a lot of constitutional conventions IOTL in the region) and two candidates in the running: one is Dionisio Inca Yupanqui, one-time deputy to the Spanish Cortes in 1812 and a long-time supporter of native emancipation in Perú, he's 61 years old upon Perú's independence; the other is Juan Bautista Túpac Amaru, a long time political prisoner in Spain who's recently returned to the continent and whose main claim to fame is his relation to Tupác Amaru II, who led a rebellion agaist the Spanish in the 1780s, but his age is a concern, as he's pushing 80 when he arrives in Buenos Aires in 1822.
I'm kinda wondering how serious the attempt as restoring the Inca Empire really is for one, and for another, I'm also wondering, if serious, if these two candidates have heirs?
 
Sorry if I'm a bit slow, but Bs As, is Buenos Aires, right?
Indeed.
I'm kinda wondering how serious the attempt as restoring the Inca Empire really is for one, and for another, I'm also wondering, if serious, if these two candidates have heirs?
There was support for the idea IOTL, but the prolonged war in Perú in particular sapped it of momentum. Even ITTL, it's considered a longshot, and is being explored primarily as a symbolic move. Monarchism was popular IOTL, and more of the Cuzcan nobility survived the wars, so it has a better chance ITTL.

It's "serious", but no one expects the new Sapa Inca to be anything but a figurehead.
 
In other words, an Incan Constitutional Monarchy then? That'd be interesting.
Indeed; there's no appetite for any other kind of monarchy, especially as it was Ferdinand VII's refusal to honor or uphold the liberal constitution of 1812 that cost him the most support in the Americas. Both of the Incan candidates have been involved in liberal (or liberal adjacent) causes in the Americas, so not even the prospective monarchs themselves want more than a figurehead monarch.
You could have the guy in his eighties be succeeded by the guy in his sixties.
That's what I'm leaning towards, yeah.
 
So in this timeline, the Monroe Doctrine will be more like an America-only continent-wide NATO led by the big three (US, Argentina, Mexico) and less a US extortion racket?

I can see the US being denied Mexico's territory...and then decides to conquerliberate Canada from the British and getting massively supported in this endeavor by Mexico and Argentina (because fuck Old World Colonizers, right?). So the ITL US basically controls everything north the Rio Bravo as per Adams-Onís treaty, including Canada and Alaska.
 
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This is certainly an interesting timeline and while I do not agree with the way you have represented some things (eg Artigas wasn't half of a nice guy as you show him to be) I've liked it so far (wank or not), nevermind that SA stories (nevermind one about Argentina) are super rare.


One question I have is if you have some specific plan for the development of the country or if you are just "letting history write itself", as the Federal push ITTL seems like it could end rather badly (as the numerous reforms and ever growing power of the Federal government in the US has shown us, a neutered central government is basically useless), nevermind that realistically most of them will be power hungry caudillos who unlike the other power hungry caudillos (who want a more unified nation) just want to rule their provinces as their own little fiefs.

So in this timeline, the Monroe Doctrine will be more like an America-only continent-wide NATO led by the big three (US, Argentina, Mexico) and less a US extortion racket?

I can see the US being denied Mexico's territory...and then decides to conquerliberate Canada from the British and getting massively supported in this endeavor by Mexico and Argentina (because fuck Old World Colonizers, right?). So the ITL US basically controls everything north the Rio Bravo as per Adams-Onís treaty, including Canada and Alaska.
Improbable.

The Monroe doctrine will probably exist in a similar manner as OTL. While the situation is seemingly better, the UP are still waaay far behind the US in development and power and unlike the US they are surrounded by many potential enemies. Nevermind that we don't even know of Colombia will survive long term (I mean it didn't in OTL) or that the UTP won't fracture either.

Also, there is little reason to help the US expand its borders by waging war against the UK. Nevermind that that ship already sailed and the US gave up on any claims on Canada (though of course borders may yet move a little).
 
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I do not agree with the way you have represented some things (eg Artigas wasn't half of a nice guy as you show him to be)
Well, while I would have defined to Artigas in many ways, though definitely 'nice' and aside from whatever that you would have wanted to mean by this term, it would've been the last adjective that I would have used for him nor btw to any of his contemporaries.

But given that I suppose that your beliefs/statements should be based on your historical readings, in case that you not care to share, then I would like to know about them... Causes seems me that could have been part of certain historiographical 'tradition' , not particularly fond of the Artiguism...

unlike the US they are surrounded by many potential enemies.
Also, I think that ITTL your analysis of the situation seems wrong, because, aside of the Spanish royalists remnants, the only country that could have fit in these kind of characterization, it would be the Brazilian Empire. And in this case they would be best characterized as former war enemies rather than as 'potential'... Of course that the political hostility and/or the ideological enmity between the Empire and the UP, at least to the middle term, would be a permanent trait of TTL Southern Cone, international relations...
But, given the recent updates, at least for me, seems clear that TTL the UP relationship with Chile and Peru, seems that they are in the better terms with both nations...
 
So in this timeline, the Monroe Doctrine will be more like an America-only continent-wide NATO led by the big three (US, Argentina, Mexico) and less a US extortion racket?

I can see the US being denied Mexico's territory...and then decides to conquerliberate Canada from the British and getting massively supported in this endeavor by Mexico and Argentina (because fuck Old World Colonizers, right?). So the ITL US basically controls everything north the Rio Bravo as per Adams-Onís treaty, including Canada and Alaska.
The Monroe Doctrine might be considered a theoretical American guarantee of independence for the new Latin American countries, but in practice their response is going to be "thanks" and shrug: the UK was more important in the early years of the doctrine, and all of the new countries are on very favorable terms with the UK. This also makes Latin American support for a US war against British Canada vanishingly unlikely: it would be a distant war by an "ally" who contributed no material aid to the wars against Spain against one who contributed a great deal of it.

I daresay that conflict between Mexico and the US is all but inevitable, but it won't be quite the one-sided affair from OTL; I can't say much more than that, because even the ersatz Texan revolution is still several years away.
I THINK would not even exist all
The Monroe Doctrine exists, but it's a lot more clearly for domestic consumption than IOTL; by 1823, when the doctrine is getting more or less formalized as American foreign policy, the independence wars have been done for 2 years and the coalition of Colombia, Perú, Chile and the United Provinces managed to do it on their own, so while they appreciate it, they still consider it little more than a gesture (and in some circles, even a veiled threat).
This is certainly an interesting timeline and while I do not agree with the way you have represented some things (eg Artigas wasn't half of a nice guy as you show him to be) I've liked it so far (wank or not), nevermind that SA stories (nevermind one about Argentina) are super rare.
I've certainly painted him in a very favorable light ITTL, but it has helped in that regard that he hasn't suffered as many setbacks, hasn't been betrayed quite as spectacularly, and hasn't been at war for essentially half his life (well, not just at war). But for example the reason that he inaugurates the era of punitive military campaigns against natives on the border is because that was a policy he supported IOTL, and he was not alone in his generation in believing that the revolution needed to be secured by force, including against natives who refused to integrate.

I am glad that you've enjoyed it so far!
One question I have is if you have some specific plan for the development of the country or if you are just "letting history write itself", as the Federal push ITTL seems like it could end rather badly (as the numerous reforms and ever growing power of the Federal government in the US has shown us, a neutered central government is basically useless), nevermind that realistically most of them will be power hungry caudillos who unlike the other power hungry caudillos (who want a more unified nation) just want to rule their provinces as their own little fiefs.
The reason I've hinted at an imminent shift in the political landscape is that the phenomenon you mention here is going to come to the forefront during a Federalist-run national government; to use an analogy ripped from the US, I see it a bit as a High-Federalist period giving way to a Jeffersonian period, with the most conservative elements of Platine society not being too pleased with either, which comes to the fore in the 1830s as the Federalists start to fracture over the question federal authority, and as its most conservative elements start pushing back against the continuation of radical policies like land reform and some timid steps towards native integration (the Guaraní are a huge Federalist constituency ITTL for example).

I've employed a bit of a mix: I had some specific plans for how I thought the government would develop, but I've attempted to build out from there organically. So while I had a pretty clear idea of how I wanted the General Assembly to develop, the position of Supreme Director developed on the fly in my writing as much as ITTL.
The Monroe doctrine will probably exist in a similar manner as OTL. While the situation is seemingly better, the UP are still waaay far behind the US in development and power and unlike the US they are surrounded by many potential enemies. Nevermind that we don't even know of Colombia will survive long term (I mean it didn't in OTL) or that the UTP won't fracture either.
You're correct that the US has a huge lead in development and population, with the United Provinces coming in at just barely 1/5th the population of the United States, but relations with Perú and Chile are much better than OTL, so the UP only really has Brazil to worry about. And with Brazil's independence from Portugal in 1822, the dynamic between them and the UP has shifted a bit, even if Rio Grande do Sul is... let's just say not a welcoming place for Platine citizens (and a downright deadly place for a Platine citizen who a) fought in the army or b) was once a slave).

Colombia will survive, due in no small part to avoiding the 5 bloody years of fighting in Perú and Bolivia, although it'll be, well, a lot more American, in that it's going to involve a constitutional convention in the 1825-26 period to prevent Venezuela from rising in open revolt and to keep Guayaquil in particular from getting too aggravated by their incorporation into a country whose constitution they had no say in creating.

The countries that are on the shakiest foundation ITTL are, for similar reasons to OTL, the Federal Republic of Central America and the Empire of Mexico; the Federal Republic might fare ever so slightly better, but it'll be tough to survive the 1830s. As for Mexico, I think my indulgent decision to keep the First Empire is going to bite the country on the ass pretty hard.
 
Well, while I would have defined to Artigas in many ways, though definitely 'nice' and aside from whatever that you would have wanted to mean by this term, it would've been the last adjective that I would have used for him nor btw to any of his contemporaries.

But given that I suppose that your beliefs/statements should be based on your historical readings, in case that you not care to share, then I would like to know about them... Causes seems me that could have been part of certain historiographical 'tradition' , not particularly fond of the Artiguism
Meh, Artigas is no devil either. Just that he wasn't any better than most of his contemporaries.

In general caudillos of all kinds were horrible people.

That's not to say that Artigas wasn't better than a lot of assholes from the revolution/civil wars era, just that this story presents him as much more disinterested than he really was (but it's not a deal breaker either, as he isn't presented as perfect by any stretch).

Also, I think that ITTL your analysis of the situation seems wrong, because, aside of the Spanish royalists remnants, the only country that could have fit in these kind of characterization, it would be the Brazilian Empire. And in this case they would be best characterized as former war enemies rather than as 'potential'... Of course that the political hostility and/or the ideological enmity between the Empire and the UP, at least to the middle term, would be a permanent trait of TTL Southern Cone, international relations...
But, given the recent updates, at least for me, seems clear that TTL the UP relationship with Chile and Peru, seems that they are in the better terms with both nations...
Yes and no.

Historically Argentina and Chile got along well for the first few years, but like most nations are wont to do when they share a border we ended up hating each other (especially when said border is an area of expansion). Brazil was a constant competitor and Bolivia (which ITTL is part of the UP) we actually got along with (kinda).

Basically the "brotherhood" from the revolution era will only last for so long and sooner rather than later we will butt heads.

The thing is, Brazil is more than a peer enemy (even if they can't realistically use their potential) and Chile/Peru could easily hold their own against the UP. That's ignoring potential splits in the UP itself or weaknesses from its loose nature as a confederation. While currently in the story it looks like the UP has a fairly strong central government in truth (as shown by Paraguay) this is only because so far the provinces have been collaborating without really holding off and its armies mostly exist due to sheer ontological inertia from the original revolution and much like the US this will cause problems long term.

The reason I've hinted at an imminent shift in the political landscape is that the phenomenon you mention here is going to come to the forefront during a Federalist-run national government; to use an analogy ripped from the US, I see it a bit as a High-Federalist period giving way to a Jeffersonian period, with the most conservative elements of Platine society not being too pleased with either, which comes to the fore in the 1830s as the Federalists start to fracture over the question federal authority, and as its most conservative elements start pushing back against the continuation of radical policies like land reform and some timid steps towards native integration (the Guaraní are a huge Federalist constituency ITTL for example).
This is rather interesting and I could see it leading to a US style civil war eventually. Which would be another unintentional parallelism.


I've employed a bit of a mix: I had some specific plans for how I thought the government would develop, but I've attempted to build out from there organically. So while I had a pretty clear idea of how I wanted the General Assembly to develop, the position of Supreme Director developed on the fly in my writing as much as ITTL
This is nice, as it means things won't be as predictable as they could have been otherwise.
development and population, with the United Provinces coming in at just barely 1/5th the population of the United States, but relations with Perú and Chile are much better than OTL, so the UP only really has Brazil to worry about. And with Brazil's independence from Portugal in 1822, the dynamic between them and the UP has shifted a bit, even if Rio Grande do Sul is... let's just say not a welcoming place for Platine citizens (and a downright deadly place for a Platine citizen who a) fought in the army or b) was once a slave)
I mean, while you are right in that things are better and we get along better, it's not like most of the constituent countries of the UP weren't friendly early on either. That didn't stop Argentina, Bolivia, Chile and Peru from fighting each other later on. I think that no matter hoe friendly the expansion into the frontier and disputed areas (eg OTL northern Chile) will eventually become an issue and while the premise of the TL is "what if the movers and shakers of the revolution took their heads out of their asses for five seconds?" That can only carry you so far. Eventually the countries will enter dick measuring contests and as their interests start differing so will their friendships fracture.

Colombia will survive, due in no small part to avoiding the 5 bloody years of fighting in Perú and Bolivia, although it'll be, well, a lot more American, in that it's going to involve a constitutional convention in the 1825-26 period to prevent Venezuela from rising in open revolt and to keep Guayaquil in particular from getting too aggravated by their incorporation into a country whose constitution they had no say in creating
Isn't this (and yes, I know the same could be said of the UP) kind of ASB'ish? I mean, it wasn't just the war weariness which fractured Gran Colombia and the leaders of the revolution (if they are the same as OTL) wouldn't be in much of a hurry to create a Federal Republic.

Also, I wonder if their former rhetoric about unified South America™ will mean that a kind of "Manifest Destiny" could develop in Colombia if it does survive long term...


ITTL are, for similar reasons to OTL, the Federal Republic of Central America and the Empire of Mexico; the Federal Republic might fare ever so slightly better, but it'll be tough to survive the 1830s. As for Mexico, I think my indulgent decision to keep the First Empire is going to bite the country on the ass pretty hard
Mexico is playing on "Mexico must die" difficulty and the FR isn't much better. I feel bad that even in what's slowly turning into a kind of Spanish Americas semi-wank they still are probably going to get shafted.
 
That's not to say that Artigas wasn't better than a lot of assholes from the revolution/civil wars era, just that this story presents him as much more disinterested than he really was (but it's not a deal breaker either, as he isn't presented as perfect by any stretch).
Huh, I didn't think he was coming off as "disinterested", that's interesting; the way I imagined him was feeling constrained, which is why he keeps looking for reasons to leave the capital, whereas his disdain for material comfort and willingness to share the hardships of his soldiers are all OTL. I admit that the character who has most benefited from a glossing over of his flaws (and from the fact he died young IOTL) is Moreno, who I think was every bit the jacobin his critics believed him to be but that for narrative purposes I've turned into a competent one too constrained by the inherent weakness of the state he's currently building to really pursue his most violent aims.
Yes and no.

Historically Argentina and Chile got along well for the first few years, but like most nations are wont to do when they share a border we ended up hating each other (especially when said border is an area of expansion). Brazil was a constant competitor and Bolivia (which ITTL is part of the UP) we actually got along with (kinda).

Basically the "brotherhood" from the revolution era will only last for so long and sooner rather than later we will butt heads.
I'll be honest, I've been picturing a US-Canada (after the War of 1812) relationship with the UP and Chile, competing over a long and poorly demarcated border but with enough fraternal and economic ties that war is only the third best option if a dispute crops up. And I've also been considering that the division of Patagonia is likely going to be more favorable to Chile than IOTL, simply because the United Provinces are just more top-heavy geographically than Argentina. To be completely honest, I think it's a lot more likely that for example TDF isn't split ITTL.
The thing is, Brazil is more than a peer enemy (even if they can't realistically use their potential) and Chile/Peru could easily hold their own against the UP. That's ignoring potential splits in the UP itself or weaknesses from its loose nature as a confederation. While currently in the story it looks like the UP has a fairly strong central government in truth (as shown by Paraguay) this is only because so far the provinces have been collaborating without really holding off and its armies mostly exist due to sheer ontological inertia from the original revolution and much like the US this will cause problems long term.
Paraguay is the big, looming precedent that poses the biggest risk to the United Provinces, although it has been ever so slightly blunted by the more explicit status of the United Provinces as a successor state as opposed to an entirely new nation. One big difference though is that the UP's jeffersonians aren't as militantly opposed to a standing army, although I think that I've given a National Bank way too much of a pass ITTL.

The provinces that are relevant when it comes to "collaborating" though are just 4: Paraguay, Uruguay, Chuquisaca/Charcas and Buenos Aires, as direct inheritors of viceroyal powers. Two were important power bases for the revolutionary government, the other two represent the most significant opponents to centralized government. The Paraná will be an ideological border just as IOTL.
This is nice, as it means things won't be as predictable as they could have been otherwise.
I think it makes for more organic story-telling, and it's more fun for me to follow some of the butterflies than to try and railroad things to a pre-ordained conclusion.
I mean, while you are right in that things are better and we get along better, it's not like most of the constituent countries of the UP weren't friendly early on either. That didn't stop Argentina, Bolivia, Chile and Peru from fighting each other later on. I think that no matter hoe friendly the expansion into the frontier and disputed areas (eg OTL northern Chile) will eventually become an issue and while the premise of the TL is "what if the movers and shakers of the revolution took their heads out of their asses for five seconds?" That can only carry you so far. Eventually the countries will enter dick measuring contests and as their interests start differing so will their friendships fracture.
Ecuador and Patagonia are going to be the big flashpoints, one sooner than the other, but there is a general sense of war weariness and camaraderie that should at least survive a decade. The 1840s will be a convulsive decade in the region though.
Isn't this (and yes, I know the same could be said of the UP) kind of ASB'ish? I mean, it wasn't just the war weariness which fractured Gran Colombia and the leaders of the revolution (if they are the same as OTL) wouldn't be in much of a hurry to create a Federal Republic.

Also, I wonder if their former rhetoric about unified South America™ will mean that a kind of "Manifest Destiny" could develop in Colombia if it does survive long term...
Yes, and it's also, sadly, a result of my own focus on Argentina turning events in Colombia into an afterthought and realizing too late that without changes to the revolution in New Grenada, having a unified Colombia survive became as unlikely as OTL. The reasoning I've come up with so far to justify a surviving and federal Colombia is that a combination of a shorter war with a more successful revolution overall moderates some of Bolivar's more extreme views and makes him more willing to play a more Washingtonian role.
Mexico is playing on "Mexico must die" difficulty and the FR isn't much better. I feel bad that even in what's slowly turning into a kind of Spanish Americas semi-wank they still are probably going to get shafted.
And I think I've unwittingly made things even harder by keeping it as an Empire, since I've just given potential rebels against Mexico an extra pretext (republicanism). Although at this point I'm hesitating between keeping it that way or just having the Empire fall to a Republic like IOTL.
 
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