A new take on the Franco-Mussolini switch-

raharris1973

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"The Franco-Mussolini switch" "What's that, is it even a thing?"

It's the name I just gave to a thing I've seen proposed at least five times between AH.com, the idea of "Switch the roles of Italy and Spain in WWII" having Spain become an Axis member (like Italy) or Italy stay neutral (like Spain).

"What's the new take"-

It is this, swapping the domestic political paths of Italy and Spain much earlier in the interwar era.

Spain persists uninterruptedly through the 20s and 30s under a rightist, authoritarian modernizing regime. For example, Miguel Primo de Rivera ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miguel_Primo_de_Rivera ) stays alive and in power at least another ten years, or if he dies in office, his regime continues under a carbon-copy successor.

What will this Spain look like and what will its capabilities be by 1940?

Meanwhile in Italy the Fascist regime falls, ideally around the time of the Global Depression (the # 1 favorite Fascist collapse scenario is the Matteotti affair (1924) blows up and topples the Fascists. Others recently mentioned on the board are the assassination attempt of 1926 being successful, or an assassination taking place in 1933 by authorial fiat). Not just Mussolini but the Fascist regime end, political space opens up to the left in Italy. This spawns revolutionary radicalism and anti-clericalism, but also a rightist reaction. The result is a brutal Italian Civil War by the middle or later thirties, with the Germans and Soviets becoming involved directly and by proxy.
 
Meanwhile in Italy the Fascist regime falls, ideally around the time of the Global Depression (the # 1 favorite Fascist collapse scenario is the Matteotti affair (1924) blows up and topples the Fascists. Others recently mentioned on the board are the assassination attempt of 1926 being successful, or an assassination taking place in 1933 by authorial fiat). Not just Mussolini but the Fascist regime end, political space opens up to the left in Italy. This spawns revolutionary radicalism and anti-clericalism, but also a rightist reaction. The result is a brutal Italian Civil War by the middle or later thirties, with the Germans and Soviets becoming involved directly and by proxy.


Of this various scenarios, the only that can maybe have a snowball change of that is the Matteotti affair, in the other case the left has already been neutered and the most dangerous are in exile both external and internal...and more importantly the army is totally behind the King.
Oh it's not that if Benny falls due to Matteotti the left had a real change...just that the fight will last even 5 minutes instead of a couple of seconds.

With the armed forces being totally at the side of the king and the greater part of the revolutionary fervor (and more importantly almost all the members of the various left armed group) gone, the possibility of a civil war while existent don't bode too well for anyone not being the goverment.

Said that in case Benny hit the road the fascist faction will be too occupied to fight among themselfs due to the various rivalry to really try a serious bid for political power. The king will, through the army and the majority of the old political enstablishment, will take control with maybe some fascist figurehead/reasonable leader like Balbo or maybe some outsiders/comeback like D'Annunzio will try to make itself the new fascist leader (but i don't think things will go well even in case of initial success).

The more probable outcome will be a political situation like France, a series of weak goverments with ever changing politics and targets that don't have neither the strenght or the will to stop the German (and Spanish) adventurism
 

raharris1973

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oh darnit, I guess I can't get my Italian Civil War on.

But what about the whole other half of the scenario, a consistently right-wing Spain without a republic or growth of an empowered and armed left during the interwar?

Question for you:

The more probable outcome will be a political situation like France, a series of weak goverments with ever changing politics and targets that don't have neither the strenght or the will to stop the German (and Spanish) adventurism

What Spanish adventurism? You mean weak Italian governments would not have the will or strength to stop *Italian* mercenaries from going to Spain? Spain wasn't adventuring anywhere really except its own colonies.

If the weak Italian governments have neither the strength nor the will to stop German adventurism I suppose it means that German-Austrian Anschluss occurs no later than March 1938? (if there even is an adventuristic Germany with ambitions to the south). Without a leader like Mussolini who Hitler can both sympathize with and respect, and dealing with non-entities he puts in the category of Daladier and Chamberlain, might Hitler push the Anschluss some years earlier?
 
But what about the whole other half of the scenario, a consistently right-wing Spain without a republic or growth of an empowered and armed left during the interwar?

I think is possible but i don't really know much about Spanish politics to be sure about it.
Maybe, and everyone with more knowledge of the facts can call gladly what i say: total idiocy, the Rif War go well for the Spanish, there is no initial humiliating defeat that cause a lot of political instability. This initially will make De Rivera (or someone like him) take over more difficult, but in this scenario the King can continue to grown influence and the fear of the communist plus the problem of the system can 'force' him to seek someone to keep/restore order...someone different from De Rivera and with more political capacity and vision.


What Spanish adventurism? You mean weak Italian governments would not have the will or strength to stop *Italian* mercenaries from going to Spain? Spain wasn't adventuring anywhere really except its own colonies.

Sorry, i just want to say that there will be no intervention in any Spanish civil war.
Said that a spanish goverment more akin to fascim than OTL (Franco was your average strongman, nothing of really ideologically about him) will be more 'aggressive', expecially if there isn't a civil war.

If the weak Italian governments have neither the strength nor the will to stop German adventurism I suppose it means that German-Austrian Anschluss occurs no later than March 1938? (if there even is an adventuristic Germany with ambitions to the south). Without a leader like Mussolini who Hitler can both sympathize with and respect, and dealing with non-entities he puts in the category of Daladier and Chamberlain, might Hitler push the Anschluss some years earlier?

Depend, if Benny die in 33, the first Anshluss attempt will probably be unopposed due to the political chaos of Italy; later if Balbo is in charge will be a big no no for Germany.
In case there is no fascism or his tenure has been brief and we have a series of weak goverment, well that depend on the general attitude of the italian allies aka France and UK; Rome will not go alone agaisnt Germany, not even in 34 but it will protest and will try to get support from other nation
 
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