A New Beginning - Our 1992 Russian Federation

1. Should Russia intervene directly against Georgia to support pro-Russian republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia?
A) Yes, we have to help our brothers and sisters


2. The public demands from the Russian government support for Serbs in Bosnia. Please write down how could this be done?

We shall maintain trade relations and support them in the UN, also send them like supplies like oil and other things their civilians need (food etc. Serbs had all the arms they need from Yugoslavia, what was danger for them were sanctions on civilian sector), but we shall send any support via Serbia/Yugoslavia to increase influence in Serbia. This of course will have a price, in exchange for Russian support convince Serbian leadership to give some limited autonomy to Albanians in Kosovo and to gradually end the conflict there, in exchange we can promise eventual membership in our organizations and security for Serbia, as well as support for dealing with most extreme parts of Kosovo.

Use our influence and negotiate with Serbian government about ceasefire between Bosnian and Serbian forces that will lead to peace and autonomy of Serbs in Bosnia with significant say over future of the country. Our friends in Serbia must understand that as of now war cannot be won via force due to unfavorable international situation, but some highly autonomous Serbian territory within Bosnia can be achieved. What we want is frozen conflict.

Basically goal here is to solve Kosovo conflict while things are hot in Bosnia while also negotiating ceasefire at the expense of Bosnian Croats. We shouldn't encourage Bosnian Serbs to much and should play smart to get early end of the conflict, but for that we need to appear as reasonable party and once Croats win in Croatia we shall have moral authority to resolve peace in Bosnia in our favor and secure independence via deal with USA.

3. Please write down how should Russia deal with ongoing war between Armenia and Azerbaijan?

Azerbaijan is member of our own economic institutions, has abundance of natural resources and is friendly to us. We shall back them diplomatically and arm them. But we should arrange for some sort of autonomy for ethnic Armenians in Nagorno Karabakh in area of linguistics and Self-governance. In exchange we expect Azerbaijan to join fully to our organizations.

Armenia surrounded as it is will have to fall in line, only way for Armenians to live together in some sort of state community and to prosper will ultimately be within Euroasian integrations.
 
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1. Should Russia intervene directly against Georgia to support pro-Russian republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia?
A) Yes, we have to help our brothers and sisters;
B) No, it would be a waste of time

2. The public demands from the Russian government support for Serbs in Bosnia. Please write down how could this be done?

3. Please write down how should Russia deal with ongoing war between Armenia and Azerbaijan?
1- A) Yes we should help our brothers and sisters.
2&3- I agree with @Kriss
 
1. Should Russia intervene directly against Georgia to support pro-Russian republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia?
A) Yes, we have to help our brothers and sisters;
B) No, it would be a waste of time

2. The public demands from the Russian government support for Serbs in Bosnia. Please write down how could this be done?

3. Please write down how should Russia deal with ongoing war between Armenia and Azerbaijan?
1. Yes, Russia must not show weakness during this time. Plus, it'll win votes for the government.
2&3- Kriss's plans would be best.
 
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To further elaborate my vote on all the matters.

Ossetia and Abkhazia aren't as important to the Russians specifically as are they important to Northern Ossetia and our members in the Caucusus. So i decided to go with full support as they are friendly to Russia otl anyway.

Now for a long part. In regards to Bosnian and Yugoslav wars in general its important to distinguish that government in Serbia and one leading Bosnian Serbs are different entities. What we want is for Serbian government to have more influence over Bosnian Serbs.

While Milosevic isn't quite good we can at least work with him and he himself is more concerned with preservation of Serbia while trying to get some gains elsewhere. For example in Wiki Serbia imposed sanctions on Bosnian Serbs to force them to ceasefire in 1994 i believe ,so we can expect that he would be willing to work with us as long as we can guarantee that Serbia (and him by extension) won't get harmed.

For Kosovo, no matter what question needs to be resolved before things in Bosnia calm down and the best option for that is partial restoration of some sort of autonomy for Albanians with groups willing to work with Serbia, this way we prevent NATO intervention in Serbia and can secure dropping of any potential sanctions after Bosnia/Croatia.

In regards to Bosnia, politically my goal here is to break up alliance Serbia has with Croatia about partition of Bosnia and to treat Serbian and Croatian matters separately (otl Contact group tried to get some trilateral settlement, but was undermined by US and Germany so we might as well pursue our own goals).

Basically i want for Bosnian Serbs to appear as reasonable group and negotiate more while keeping use of force as deterrent, not to mention without Croats in the mix Bosnians might accept more autonomy for the Serbs (maybe some autonomous territory that's somewhat larger than what they got otl). But this all is just a plan B ...

Serbs will need to give up Croatia (or most of it as we can get strip of Croatia near Serbia via referendum) as we cannot win it all, but what we can secure is potential independence for Bosnian Serbs as a response to expulsion of Serbs from Croatia (with some territorial concessions to get something similar to otl borders with continuous land border for both sides), basically partition of Bosnia. Ultimately this war needs a villain and we need to make sure that Serbs keep their hands clean as much as possible and this is plan A.

Regarding Azerbaijan, as i said they have proven themselves to be more loyal, not to mention they are stronger power so we should chose them and integrate them further. In regards to Armenia NATO isn't an option due to Turkey and economically they will be dependent on us as they would be relatively isolated.
 
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1) yes, we can't show weakness at this time
2) help Serbia with arms and supplies, play cautiously in Bosnia (a Serb-Croat alliance against the Muslims should be encouraged if possible), support the Serbs all the way on Kosovo
3) agree with Kriss,
 
1. A) I'm all for against Georgia, who's under a military power.
2. I'm also with @Kriss but I'd rather have the Bosnian Serbs be more on neighboring regions of Serbia.
3. I again agree with @Kriss' plan.
 
1. Should Russia intervene directly against Georgia to support pro-Russian republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia?
A) Yes, we have to help our brothers and sisters;
B) No, it would be a waste of time

B. Not ours issue and not really intrests on Russia to mess with Georgia.

2. The public demands from the Russian government support for Serbs in Bosnia. Please write down how could this be done?

Just continue saling military equipments to Serbia but not support Serbia directly. But we could try mediate negotiations in Bosnia. Not direct intervention/support.

3. Please write down how should Russia deal with ongoing war between Armenia and Azerbaijan?

Let's stay out.Not in ours intrests.
 
1 - B, we've got way too much issues going on to get too directly into this. If Georgia threatens Russia proper more explicitly, we shall do our best to protect our boders, though.

2 - I'll back @Kriss here. If Russia could help minimize violence on the Balkans at least to some extent, this could be a big win for Russia in various directions.

3 - Also will back @Kriss more or less. Make autonomy/self-governance for Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians and secure travel between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh a condition for larger scale cooperation.
 
1. Should Russia intervene directly against Georgia to support pro-Russian republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia?
B) While we may wish to support our brothers and sisters, we do have far more pressing matters with our economy to afford a costly war unless Georgia was to prove a more overt threat to Russia proper.
2. The public demands from the Russian government support for Serbs in Bosnia. Please write down how could this be done?
I'll add my support to the plans of @Kriss
3. Please write down how should Russia deal with ongoing war between Armenia and Azerbaijan?
Likewise I'll give my support to @Kriss's plan.
 
Just continue saling military equipments to Serbia but not support Serbia directly. But we could try mediate negotiations in Bosnia. Not direct intervention/support.

Problem is that without direct support USA will support the hardline against the Serbs which will escalate things on the field. This is why we need to back Serbia diplomatically as well to make it sure we won't stand for that.

Same with Serbia, not backing them and resolving Kosovo early on is just asking for USA to bomb them at which point we lose influence there and we will displease our population. Generally we must balance our backing of the Serbs with our own needs/abilities. Thus the goal of backing the Serbs where we can but also trying to restrain them and if they have someone guarding their backs they will be open to the negotiations and opposing side won't be as confident in potentially breaking the treaty.

Thus the goal being minimizing the conflict in Bosnia (but in a honest way that isn't one sided) while also unfortunately giving up territories in Croatia.

Of course if we are able to secure some autonomy for Serbs there it would be great but i don't think that's likely (we can probably take that strip of land borderingSerbia though). What we can do is to secure independence for Serbs in Bosnia and resolve the conflict there as leaving Serbs there will really just block Bosnia from developing in any meaningful way, same with Bosnian Serbs as at this point its pretty much clear that neither side wants to do something with the other and common life is pretty much impossible without one side generally making the other a second class citizens. So better to go for messy divorce than an unhappy marriage i would say.

Generally it's cold war type of solution where we partition the area between us and USA, but one that should generally be accepted by everyone in the region (disliked, but accepted). After it everyone are free to go their own way and we can talk about normalization of ties without underlying issues.
 
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1 I will be honest I'm conflicted but have been convinced for A as this is very much a trap but will hurt Russia the least. It seems we will be forced to act sooner or later on Georgia. That said here are some circumstances that will affect this conflict.

In this war around close to a third of the fighters for Abkhazia where from the Confederation of Mountain Peoples of the Caucasus close to 2,000 men, it's speculated part of the reason the Chechnya crises went on for so long before the first war was attempts at using the nationalists as cut outs and trying to make a deal. Here we are fighting them so Abkhazia will have less fighters meaning a greater Russian intervention is needed.

Not only that but the other third of the fighters are Armenians living in the area who took up arms because of Georgian atrocities in the Bagramyan Battalion and want revenge.

In other words by showing support for Abkhazia will definitely affect our relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan by supporting them will directly aid the ethnic cleansing of Georgians if we go OTL likely with Russian troops given Abkhazia is weaker but if we don't act will also aid Georgia in their actions against the non Georgian there so neutrality is worse than nothing we will loss reputation.

2
I will go with Kriss with one exception internally and to a extent externally a propaganda campaign portray this as related to Afghanistan, given Jihadists who fought in Afghanistan and across the world are trying to enter Bosnia to fight I think it's best to reframe to our public why we should support Serbia as related to our own security.

Afghanistan may have been a disaster for the USSR but the winners of it have been figures like Hekmatyar who made noises about liberating the Central Asian republics, allowing a potentially hostile state in Europe to form that's actively supported by such figures unhindered would be a insult to the dead soldiers even if we limiting the aid we can give.

Sure it's a bit of exaggeration but I think this line of portrayal would work well in the ex Soviet union.

3 Kriss support for Azerbaijan mainly as they are not only stronger but losing them would be a disaster.

It's often forgotten but the first Armenian Azerbaijan war saw Pakistan, Afghan warlord Hekmatyar, Iran and Türkiye all on the same page for it sending supplies, weapons and fighters , this partnership turned bitter and failed but that's not guaranteed and keeping a friendly Azerbaijan will be good for influence in the region as well as Türkiye.
 
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1 - I add my support to @Kriss 's plan
2- Same
3 - Same, but with @Screwhorn77' s amendment because Russia cannot lose Azerbaijan for economic and geopolitical reasons and Armenia for reputation. Also, to have cooperation about travel and peace in Nagorno-Karabakh.
 
1. B, it's the most logical choice for now as it would be too costly for us to be involved in the war.
2. Support @Kriss idea
3. Support mix of @Kriss and @Screwhorn77 idea as we could have both Armenia and Azerbaijan on our side, instead of only have one of them on our side.
 
Make autonomy/self-governance for Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians and secure travel between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh a condition for larger scale cooperation.

But in reasonable measures as we don't want to offend Azerbaijan to much. Regarding freedom of movement, i hoped that will come with Armenia joining CIS, but a deal can ve made that involves Azerbaijan corridor to their cut of province of Nakhcivan. This way Armenia has initiative to remain coordinal with Russia and CIS/EUU. Economic initiative is another thing.
1 I will be honest I'm conflicted but I think B+ is the best option as this is very much a trap but will hurt Russia the least.

Let me explain In this war around close to a third of the fighters for Abkhazia where from the Confederation of Mountain Peoples of the Caucasus close to 2,000 men, it's speculated part of the reason the Chechnya crises went on for so long before the first war was attempts at using the nationalists as cut outs and trying to make a deal. Here we are fighting them so Abkhazia will have less fighters.

Not only that but the other third of the fighters are Armenians living in the area who took up arms because of Georgian atrocities in the Bagramyan Battalion and want revenge.

In other words by showing support for Abkhazia will definitely affect our relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan by supporting them will directly aid the ethnic cleansing of Georgians if we go OTL likely with Russian troops given Abkhazia is weaker but if we don't act will also aid Georgia in their actions against the non Georgian there so neutrality is worse than nothing we will loss reputation.

My idea is this, we won't intervene in Georgia provided they take efforts to crack down and prevent on Chechen and Islamic insurgents using there land as a base of operations and transport equipment and fighters like in Pankisi Gorge. This might be grim but it would at least give us something to explain non intervention, if Georgia refuses which given the nationalist frenzy of this era is possible we have clear reason to intervene.

Still it's important to differentiate between the two and in this case we still have S. Ossetian question to worry about. Not acting there now would potentially destabilize our own part of the Caucusus. Not to mention terms you offered are quite generous so Georgia might accept. It's to big of a gamble and Georgia needs to knocked down a little otherwise we will have unfriendly nation on our doorsteps also helping Abkhazia could improve our perception in the eyes of Armenians and give us further leverage against the two. Not to mention with stronger intervention we can force Abkhazia to deal with refuge problems and potentially force it to adopt more Schwiz like model based on cantons.

For Ossetian part of the conflict? If Georgia is allowed to follow through on its ethnic cleansing Ossetian refugees will flock across the border and N. Ossetians will see that Russian federation is unwilling and unable to fight for their own interests rising the status of Ossetian statehood that we will need to forcibly shut down, not to mention that some elements within our military and society will intervene there anyway creating additional problems. But ultimately even without Abkhazia we are forced to intervene in S. Ossetia as otherwise we risk disorder spreading in Russian Caucusus while only thing of reward would be unfriendly nationalist country on our borders.

If we don't intervene now we will definitely need to intervene after Ossetia falls to save it sparking even greater conflict.

I will go with Kriss with one exception internally and to a extent externally a propaganda campaign portray this as related to Afghanistan, given Jihadists who fought in Afghanistan and across the world are trying to enter Bosnia to fight I think it's best to reframe to our public why we should support Serbia as related to our own security.

Afghanistan may have been a disaster for the USSR but the winners of it have been figures like Hekmatyar who made noises about liberating the Central Asian republics, allowing a potentially hostile state in Europe to form that's actively supported by such figures unhindered would be a insult to the dead soldiers even if we limiting the aid we can give.

Sure it's a bit of exaggeration but I think this line of portrayal would work well in the ex Soviet union.

While our population has its own reasons i embrace this narrative as a way to justify our backing of Serbs to CIS and international community.
 
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If we don't intervene now we will definitely need to intervene after Ossetia falls to save it sparking even greater conflict.
Fair point forgot about the issue of Ossetia, suppose in this case better to try and act as soon as we can so will change my vote to A.

Plus their is incentive to act while we still can as you've mentioned.
 
Remember everyone, this is 90's Russia we are talking about, if we look weak we'll end up like Yeltsin and 1996 will end with some fuckin' commie or Nazbol or god knows who else in charge.
 
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