More details about where everyone in this stands will be forecoming in the next update. But Japan is allied with the British.
A New Balance
- Thread starter Jim Smitty
- Start date
Sorry, should have said there most natural expansion would be Russia, which is in the British block. Not sure if there are enough German island colonies for them to really go after
Nice updates and things are about to get quite sticky in Europe. Spain behaved very badly, provoked Japan and got their butt kicked. Now it will be dealing with a civil war while the rest of Europe is exploding. Japan gained some new territory, but will they be able to hold onto it without losing more men and money then it is worth?
The US will be on the sidelines for now, but will they be able to stay out of the fray or fall into the madness of the War?
The US will be on the sidelines for now, but will they be able to stay out of the fray or fall into the madness of the War?
RamscoopRaider
Donor
US will still be selling supplies to whoever has money to pay, they'd be morons not to. On the other hand the US will probably try to price gouge the UK more, and try to get higher collateral requirements on loans, and certainly be a lot stricter in discouraging unsecured loans, plus even more bitching about the blockade
World War One, German Invasion, West
As the decorations of war made their rounds everyone when about launching their offensives. The four offensives of note however are the French, German, Austro Hungarian, and Russians ones. It was the German offensive that changed the balance of the war overnight again. Yet as the world headed headlong into war other nations were taking note and declaring their goals of sitting out of the madness that was sweeping Europe. Only two nations were worth noting who didn’t have ties to the mess that Europe was quickly becoming in the Summer of 1915. These were the United States of America and the Empire of Brazil.
Germany was the nation that shocked the world with their invasion of Belgium June 19th. The German General Staff had believed since the end of the Russo-Japanese War that Russia with its endless kilometers of land to fall back on had to be the second nation it defeated and they had to knock France out of the war quickly. The heavily fortified zone between both France and Germany made a rapid advance all but impossible. Knowing this, Germany saw only one way to get around this, go through the Low Countries.
The Low Countries were that of Netherlands, Belgium, and Luxembourg. In 1913 Germany entered into a secret treaty with Belgium that in the event of war between Germany and France that the Belgians would allow Germany to pass through their nation. In return Belgium would be rewarded for their troubles in the peace treaty with the French Congo. Only the British knew of this treaty. They knew full well the danger of this and put their own plans in place to make sure this never came about. On June 17th the day before the French entered the war they started a coup in Brussels. This coup overthrew King Baudouin[1] who was friendly with the German Empire and replaced him with Crown Prince Charles[2] who was more friendly to the British than Germany.
When n the 18th the Germans asked for Brussels to honor the terms of their secret 1913 treaty they were shocked to find out that King Baudouin had been overthrown and replaced by Charles. Charles made it clear he wouldn’t honor the treaty his father had signed. This created a problem for the Germans after some debate they simply said to hell with it and invaded Belgium. They had no other way to quickly defeat France and they knew it. They said publicly that they plan to restore the rightful King Baudouin to the thrown in Brussels as they refused to recognize Charles as the rightful ruler of the Belgians.
At this point the British sighted the Treaty of London (1839) in which Prussia the forerunner of the modern German state agreed to respect the neutrality of Belgium demanded Germany leave Belgium alone. Germany told them more or less to drop dead as they figured out they were being the coup that brought Charles to power. The Belgian Army was divided as some were behind the coup others didn’t know where to stand, and others still supported Baudouin. Some units of the Belgian Army followed Charles’ orders to fight back against the German invaders. Others joined the German Army and fought against the supporters of Charles. Others stood down and simply when home. One of the key units to go over to the Germans was the Garrison of the Liege forts. This allowed Germany to quickly enter Belgium.
With control of Liege the German Army the Germans didn’t running to resistance from the Belgians till they reached the forts around Namur. This was the site of the first battle of the Belgian Civil War. However, by this time the British had entered the war using the Treaty of London as their pretext for war. It wasn’t till August 1st that Namur fell to the Germans and pro-Baudouin Belgians. However the British reinforced the city of Antwerp at this time in an effort to make the pro-Charles faction hold out against the Germans and pro-Baudouin faction.
Following the fall of Namur, the Germans raced into France which would lead to the Battle of the Marne which started on August 9th. Generally known as the Miracle at the Marne by the French and British at the time as they held against the slightly larger German Army. This started the race to the sea. Which was a series of battles trying to turn the flank of the British, French, and pro-Charles forces by the Germans and pro-Baudouin forces. The race came to an end when the Channel Town of Dunkirk fell to the Germans.
[1] Albert I of Belgium was born post POD OTL. An Albert was born ITL as well. However, he died in an auto accident before he became king. It was passed to his brother, Baudouin.
[2] Crown Prince Charles is the ITL son of Baudouin. In 1915, he is barely 19 years old. But he sharply disagrees with his father on a number of issues including who is the better nation The British or German Empire. Charles is pro-British whereas his father is pro-German.
Germany was the nation that shocked the world with their invasion of Belgium June 19th. The German General Staff had believed since the end of the Russo-Japanese War that Russia with its endless kilometers of land to fall back on had to be the second nation it defeated and they had to knock France out of the war quickly. The heavily fortified zone between both France and Germany made a rapid advance all but impossible. Knowing this, Germany saw only one way to get around this, go through the Low Countries.
The Low Countries were that of Netherlands, Belgium, and Luxembourg. In 1913 Germany entered into a secret treaty with Belgium that in the event of war between Germany and France that the Belgians would allow Germany to pass through their nation. In return Belgium would be rewarded for their troubles in the peace treaty with the French Congo. Only the British knew of this treaty. They knew full well the danger of this and put their own plans in place to make sure this never came about. On June 17th the day before the French entered the war they started a coup in Brussels. This coup overthrew King Baudouin[1] who was friendly with the German Empire and replaced him with Crown Prince Charles[2] who was more friendly to the British than Germany.
When n the 18th the Germans asked for Brussels to honor the terms of their secret 1913 treaty they were shocked to find out that King Baudouin had been overthrown and replaced by Charles. Charles made it clear he wouldn’t honor the treaty his father had signed. This created a problem for the Germans after some debate they simply said to hell with it and invaded Belgium. They had no other way to quickly defeat France and they knew it. They said publicly that they plan to restore the rightful King Baudouin to the thrown in Brussels as they refused to recognize Charles as the rightful ruler of the Belgians.
At this point the British sighted the Treaty of London (1839) in which Prussia the forerunner of the modern German state agreed to respect the neutrality of Belgium demanded Germany leave Belgium alone. Germany told them more or less to drop dead as they figured out they were being the coup that brought Charles to power. The Belgian Army was divided as some were behind the coup others didn’t know where to stand, and others still supported Baudouin. Some units of the Belgian Army followed Charles’ orders to fight back against the German invaders. Others joined the German Army and fought against the supporters of Charles. Others stood down and simply when home. One of the key units to go over to the Germans was the Garrison of the Liege forts. This allowed Germany to quickly enter Belgium.
With control of Liege the German Army the Germans didn’t running to resistance from the Belgians till they reached the forts around Namur. This was the site of the first battle of the Belgian Civil War. However, by this time the British had entered the war using the Treaty of London as their pretext for war. It wasn’t till August 1st that Namur fell to the Germans and pro-Baudouin Belgians. However the British reinforced the city of Antwerp at this time in an effort to make the pro-Charles faction hold out against the Germans and pro-Baudouin faction.
Following the fall of Namur, the Germans raced into France which would lead to the Battle of the Marne which started on August 9th. Generally known as the Miracle at the Marne by the French and British at the time as they held against the slightly larger German Army. This started the race to the sea. Which was a series of battles trying to turn the flank of the British, French, and pro-Charles forces by the Germans and pro-Baudouin forces. The race came to an end when the Channel Town of Dunkirk fell to the Germans.
[1] Albert I of Belgium was born post POD OTL. An Albert was born ITL as well. However, he died in an auto accident before he became king. It was passed to his brother, Baudouin.
[2] Crown Prince Charles is the ITL son of Baudouin. In 1915, he is barely 19 years old. But he sharply disagrees with his father on a number of issues including who is the better nation The British or German Empire. Charles is pro-British whereas his father is pro-German.
Last edited:
So OTL Belgium fought united against Germany, here part of it welcomed them in and could be seen as restoring the rightful ruler due to the coup. That also means the Germans are less likely to attack the civilian populace which will place less pressure on them from the neutrals. Also the British now have the fact they helped a coup weighing them down with potential neutrals.
OTL Allies:
1914
France
UK
Russia
Serbia
Montenegro
Bosnia
Belgium
Japan
1915/16
Italy
Romania
Portugal
1917/18
USA
Brazil
China
and some others
ITL:
France
UK
Russia
Serbia
Montenegro
Belgium (forces of the Crown Prince)
Japan (I believe they are in?)
Not sure if Bosnia is in this time, but all the powers that joined the first year have except that Belgium is divided into two sides, one Allied and one Central Powers, Greece and Bulgaria are also in the war on the Central Power side.
OTL Central Powers
1914
Austria Hungary
Germany
Ottomans
1915
Bulgaria
ITL:
Austria Hungary
Germany
Bulgaria
Greece
Belgium (forces loyal to overthrown King)
OTL Allies:
1914
France
UK
Russia
Serbia
Montenegro
Bosnia
Belgium
Japan
1915/16
Italy
Romania
Portugal
1917/18
USA
Brazil
China
and some others
ITL:
France
UK
Russia
Serbia
Montenegro
Belgium (forces of the Crown Prince)
Japan (I believe they are in?)
Not sure if Bosnia is in this time, but all the powers that joined the first year have except that Belgium is divided into two sides, one Allied and one Central Powers, Greece and Bulgaria are also in the war on the Central Power side.
OTL Central Powers
1914
Austria Hungary
Germany
Ottomans
1915
Bulgaria
ITL:
Austria Hungary
Germany
Bulgaria
Greece
Belgium (forces loyal to overthrown King)
So, if the Germans advance far enough in this offensive, they could seize or at least place under bombardment the coal fields in Bethune, which provided a large chunk of french coal
I remember reading another TL where the German seizure of those coal fields forced France out of the war by 1917 or so, which made sense as the loss of valuable coal fields would cause shortages, forcing them to choose between supplying their industries and keeping their people warm in the winter, with an increase in demand for British coal tying up massive amounts of shipping in the channel, reducing Britain's ability to supply armies in France due to port congestion and a lack of ships to do both.
Basically if that holds true here the most likely result is a series of Anglo-French offensives to drive the Germans off the coal fields, and given the superiority of defense in WWI I just don't see it being cheap or easy, with even a successful offensive likely costing a large amount of men and material, which could cause butterflies down the line. With such a massive economic shortage (assuming the Germans hold the fields) I doubt the Americans would be as willing to furnish loans to the Entente, which could very well cause a German victory in the West.
I remember reading another TL where the German seizure of those coal fields forced France out of the war by 1917 or so, which made sense as the loss of valuable coal fields would cause shortages, forcing them to choose between supplying their industries and keeping their people warm in the winter, with an increase in demand for British coal tying up massive amounts of shipping in the channel, reducing Britain's ability to supply armies in France due to port congestion and a lack of ships to do both.
Basically if that holds true here the most likely result is a series of Anglo-French offensives to drive the Germans off the coal fields, and given the superiority of defense in WWI I just don't see it being cheap or easy, with even a successful offensive likely costing a large amount of men and material, which could cause butterflies down the line. With such a massive economic shortage (assuming the Germans hold the fields) I doubt the Americans would be as willing to furnish loans to the Entente, which could very well cause a German victory in the West.
As to Bethune, the Germans aren't in control of that town. But its in range of the longer range artillery pieces.
SO basically one good offensive from the Germans and the French are in for a cold winter.
RamscoopRaider
Donor
Jim Bethune is East of Dunkirk. OTL it was within Heavy artillery range for most of the war. Unless there is a French salient at Bethune, if the line went west of OTL enough to reach Dunkirk, the Germans have it, even with a salient it would be in medium artillery range rather than heavy
World War One, Elan Doesn't Work
There is only one was to sum up the French Offensive that started the Great War, a total and utter failure. There is no other way to get around it. Plan XIV which had only been approved during the winter of 1914/15 was at the time viewed by the French General Staff as a plan that would quickly win the war with the promised offensive from the Russians into East Prussia. Yet this plan is now used by War College students in many nations as to the many things the French screwed up in their war planned. And that’s being nice about it.
For the French the power of the elan was everything. They believed their infantry with enough sprit could overcome anything. The primary goal of Plan XIV was a general assault into the strongly fortified region of Elsass-Lothrigen. There were no general axis of attacks in the plan, instead it called for a general assault and once a breakthrough had been achieved that they would force reinforcements through it to break into the territorial that was wrongfully taken from France at the end of the Franco-Prussian War in 1871. No time tables were in this plan. It was simply a disaster waiting to happen.
Worse yet they failed to take notice of some of the events of the Second Mexican-American War and other early 20th century wars. Notably the American shell crisis and the power of the machine gun. They believed that the American shell crisis was because of poor American planning and use of their artillery. This flew in the fact of the Island War in which the Americans won the war against the Germans, but the French put this down as a naval war and it didn’t count. They also didn’t take in the account their soon to be allies in the Japanese who wanted heavier artillery during their war with Russia and later Spain. As such they didn’t field any guns or howitzers larger than 75 mm even though they were making a well designed 107 mm howitzer for the ally Russia.
As the war started and the French Army mobilized they launched Plan XIV to reclaimed Elsass-Lothrigen. It turned into the disaster it was meant to be as it became known as the Battle of the Frontier. The bulk of the French Army attacked German positions and let to massacre. Elan didn’t do anything to overcome German machine gun positions that were supported by heavy artillery. The Germans withdrew at first but then blasted the French for all it was worth with machine guns and artillery. Then the counter attack came.
This counterattack happened at the same time as the French were wheeling from the start of the Belgian Civil War and the rapid advance of the German Army through Belgium. This is where the lack of French planning really came into play. Following the Russo-Japanese War in which the Japanese stayed on the offensive and never gave it up and won the war in what many viewed as long odds, caused the French to give up the idea of the defensive war. They were only to attack. Yet now they were being forced on the defensive and didn’t have the first idea of what to do.
In a somewhat haphazard manner the French wheeled units to save Paris from falling to the German Armies and Belgian forces loyal to Baudouin who was being held somewhere in the British Isles at this point in time. Yet this created gaps in their lines against the Germans along the German border. The Germans launched fresh counter attacks and threaten to break through. This led to the critical Battle of Verdun.
Verdun was a fortress city on the frontier with Germany. Yet because of the shift of forces needed in the north and the bulk of the BEF being destroyed created gaps that the Germans were able to advance in. Only the French quickly tried to cover their mistakes once they saw it. However, the Germans were able to reach the outskirts of Verdun by this time. Learning from the busting of Belgian Forts at Namur the Germans brought in heavy artillery with shells design to bust forts. Verdun fell to the Germans on August 17th and is generally marked as the end of the Battle of the Frontier and opening phases of the war in the west.
For the French the opening of the war was a total disaster. It found a large part of their industry on the wrong side of the front. Key towns and places of industry that were on their side of the front were in dangerous positions. Some like Bethune which was a major coal mine in France was in a salient and in range of almost all German artillery. Other industrial towns such as Nancy was within range of German heavy artillery. Yet the front now ran from the Swiss border around from just east of Belfort to the English Channel at Dunkirk. Not only the lost of key industries hurt the French, the losses in men and supplies also hurt them badly. A report filed on August 21st with the French General Staff stated the French Army wouldn’t be ready for offensive operations till November at the earliest as it needed to recover and season up the recruits and reservist who were coming into the army now.
For the French the power of the elan was everything. They believed their infantry with enough sprit could overcome anything. The primary goal of Plan XIV was a general assault into the strongly fortified region of Elsass-Lothrigen. There were no general axis of attacks in the plan, instead it called for a general assault and once a breakthrough had been achieved that they would force reinforcements through it to break into the territorial that was wrongfully taken from France at the end of the Franco-Prussian War in 1871. No time tables were in this plan. It was simply a disaster waiting to happen.
Worse yet they failed to take notice of some of the events of the Second Mexican-American War and other early 20th century wars. Notably the American shell crisis and the power of the machine gun. They believed that the American shell crisis was because of poor American planning and use of their artillery. This flew in the fact of the Island War in which the Americans won the war against the Germans, but the French put this down as a naval war and it didn’t count. They also didn’t take in the account their soon to be allies in the Japanese who wanted heavier artillery during their war with Russia and later Spain. As such they didn’t field any guns or howitzers larger than 75 mm even though they were making a well designed 107 mm howitzer for the ally Russia.
As the war started and the French Army mobilized they launched Plan XIV to reclaimed Elsass-Lothrigen. It turned into the disaster it was meant to be as it became known as the Battle of the Frontier. The bulk of the French Army attacked German positions and let to massacre. Elan didn’t do anything to overcome German machine gun positions that were supported by heavy artillery. The Germans withdrew at first but then blasted the French for all it was worth with machine guns and artillery. Then the counter attack came.
This counterattack happened at the same time as the French were wheeling from the start of the Belgian Civil War and the rapid advance of the German Army through Belgium. This is where the lack of French planning really came into play. Following the Russo-Japanese War in which the Japanese stayed on the offensive and never gave it up and won the war in what many viewed as long odds, caused the French to give up the idea of the defensive war. They were only to attack. Yet now they were being forced on the defensive and didn’t have the first idea of what to do.
In a somewhat haphazard manner the French wheeled units to save Paris from falling to the German Armies and Belgian forces loyal to Baudouin who was being held somewhere in the British Isles at this point in time. Yet this created gaps in their lines against the Germans along the German border. The Germans launched fresh counter attacks and threaten to break through. This led to the critical Battle of Verdun.
Verdun was a fortress city on the frontier with Germany. Yet because of the shift of forces needed in the north and the bulk of the BEF being destroyed created gaps that the Germans were able to advance in. Only the French quickly tried to cover their mistakes once they saw it. However, the Germans were able to reach the outskirts of Verdun by this time. Learning from the busting of Belgian Forts at Namur the Germans brought in heavy artillery with shells design to bust forts. Verdun fell to the Germans on August 17th and is generally marked as the end of the Battle of the Frontier and opening phases of the war in the west.
For the French the opening of the war was a total disaster. It found a large part of their industry on the wrong side of the front. Key towns and places of industry that were on their side of the front were in dangerous positions. Some like Bethune which was a major coal mine in France was in a salient and in range of almost all German artillery. Other industrial towns such as Nancy was within range of German heavy artillery. Yet the front now ran from the Swiss border around from just east of Belfort to the English Channel at Dunkirk. Not only the lost of key industries hurt the French, the losses in men and supplies also hurt them badly. A report filed on August 21st with the French General Staff stated the French Army wouldn’t be ready for offensive operations till November at the earliest as it needed to recover and season up the recruits and reservist who were coming into the army now.
If they know about even half the problems France has right now not pressing the attack would be incompetence on the level of McClellan
If they only had one front to worry about I would agree with this. However...
Interesting, so a prisoner of the British, I wonder how they are spinning that to the neutrals. I mean some like the US will not care too much as it is a European problem but just one more sign that we can't trust the British, but how would the neutral monarchs feel about the British in essence kidnapping one of their peers.
Also it sounded like the BEF took a beating as well and while the Western Front may stabilize I think it is further west than OTL but not certain about that. Now the question is can the Germans hold the Russians, also will the presence of Greece and Bulgaria already in the war allow more of AH army to be freed up to threaten the Russians along with Greek and Bulgarian units possibly.
Finally what are the rest of the Balkan Nations, Ottomans and Nordic nations doing and which way do they lean.
RamscoopRaider
Donor
Front is definitely further west than OTL. The RN is going to have to divert a lot extra to the channel, with Dunkirk out and Calais reduced in capacity the British will have trouble supplying, especially since Hazebrouk is probably within artillery range, plus the Germans can now have Ostend fully secure as a base and make limited use of Dunkirk for raiding
I assume this is a bit of an exaggeration, OTL they did have some albeit about as much in an Army as the Germans had in a Corps or less
LinkedTortoise
Monthly Donor
I kinda want the Germans's to do something stupid before the British, which has nothing to do with the fact that my first grandparent was born in 1917 and I still want him to be Canadian 
, but that it would be hilarious watching the American and British who hate each other be co-belligerents. Either there there could never be a Canadian-American War as its hard to have a war when only one side (American) shows up.
, but that it would be hilarious watching the American and British who hate each other be co-belligerents. Either there there could never be a Canadian-American War as its hard to have a war when only one side (American) shows up.ITTL you won't see the USA as a co-belligerent against Germany in "WWI". A German victory is no threat to American interests, the US and UK are significant rivals. If the RN blockades Germany with a distant blockade, like OTL the US is likely to be very pissed at its ships and cargoes being seized - basically the British called everything war material: food, clothing, medical supplies, lumber. The British blockade started before you had the Germans doing unrestricted submarine warfare that involved US ships. You also won't see the USA making the kind loans to the Entente that did OTL, which invested them in an Entente victory. I can see the USA selling to either side for cash up front, as they were not overly close to Germany either.
ITTL I can see the USA being truly pissed about the British blockade. First off it is a distant blockade, with ships stopped well away from German ports. Secondly, they would stop ships, bring them to British ports, and then go through proceedings even if they were going to neutral ports due to concerns about materials being forwarded. Finally, the list of prohibited goods was so extensive as to be all-inclusive. It is not beyond the realm of possibility for the USN to escort a convoy of ships carry goods that are not dual use (food, medicine, clothing, etc) to german ports and when the RN comes along they tell them what they have and they are proceeding...then what. Does the RN try to forcefully stop them, start a fight, and now add the USA to the list of enemies?
ITTL I can see the USA being truly pissed about the British blockade. First off it is a distant blockade, with ships stopped well away from German ports. Secondly, they would stop ships, bring them to British ports, and then go through proceedings even if they were going to neutral ports due to concerns about materials being forwarded. Finally, the list of prohibited goods was so extensive as to be all-inclusive. It is not beyond the realm of possibility for the USN to escort a convoy of ships carry goods that are not dual use (food, medicine, clothing, etc) to german ports and when the RN comes along they tell them what they have and they are proceeding...then what. Does the RN try to forcefully stop them, start a fight, and now add the USA to the list of enemies?
Now this sounds foreboding.
Guess we will find out just which fronts will be created. The mess is just going to grow worse.