A New Balance

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Admiral Halsey

Banned
So i'm thinking the Communist strategy is going to fail at this rate. The Germans are hardly gonna bleed themselves against this shambling and falling apart wreck of a nation. A-H is dead and done for to never be seen again. Hell odds are Austria will be nothing more then a German province after the war is over.
 

lukedalton

Well, the news about Malta are big, if the island has been captured and added with the Franco-Italian control of the two side of the strait of Sicily...this mean that the Mediterrean can effectively been divided in two creating an enourmous problem for the Royal Navy...and the British Army in Egypt as unlike OTL there will be much less problem in supply the italian army there (logistic will still suck due to the terrain).
The A-H Navy seem out of the game and the general situation of the Empire very very dire as the Hungarian prepare to get out of the dying corpse...this bring the question, what they will do? Try to get a separate peace with the German led alliance? But this will also mean not only stop the war with Romania but also give up territories directely (Romania) and indirectecly (Italy...as Croatia was seen as part of the Kingdom of Hungary), plus their own problem with ethinc minority. The other option is continue to fight to get the best concession possible (and knock out Romania)

The Communist strategy is sound in general and mirror Stalin (and historical russian attitude) though OTL...unfortunely A-H seem on the verge of a quick collapse and Germany and co. had not been bloodied too much and so they have in practice sacrified a co-belligerant for basically nothing. The next target IMVHO will be Spain, to secure the western flank from raid and a possible invasion.

As a personal note, i frankly don't want to be on the position of whatever has taken the place of the italian inhabitants in Veneto; while the army had not launched any big offensive the air force seem very busy to prepare the terrain for taking back Veneto.

Just a question for poor little Serbia, sure they have been basically evicted by their nation, still it will be propaganda coup reconstituite the nation

Edit: if the Austrian are nasty enough, they can go for a 'Burning Venice' order to spite the italians
 
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sloreck

IMHO the Hungarians will get out and make the best deal they can. They can let most of Croatia go, perhaps keeping an outlet to the sea but ensuring that the territory they keep is overwhelmingly Magyar in population. Likewise given that it was "A-H" that started the war with Romania, they can probably cut a deal with the Romanians that draws a border without leaving too many of the "wrong" ethnicity on either side of the line. A clear division is not possible due to the checkerboard pattern, there may be a population exchange. At this point the Hungarians are not going to want many non-Magyars (Croats, Serbs, Romanians) inside their borders. They really don't want them for cultural/racial reasons, and have seen what a mess trying to have a multi-ethnic empire is. Sure, they will want as much "historical" ground as they can get, but will have to settle for less.

The Germans are not going to feel the need to be harsh with Hungary, why not let them exit easily. Furthermore weakening Hungary could make them more attractive for a communist takeover, the Germans certainly don't want to see any more communist countries in Europe. Unlike OTL where the disruptions along land borders with Russia after WWI led to communist uprisings, not happening here to any extent - Hungary is solid, Romania is no worse off than it was before the war started, Germany is a winner. Austria may be "ripe" after this disaster, but Germany can simply step in and squash this - the Austrians may not love the Germans, but most would prefer Germany to a communist Austrian government.

The UK is screwed - the Med is closed to them, A-H is toast, the ANZACs have bailed. It will be clear very soon that the submarines in the Caribbean are British manned but Mexican flagged, and Mexico will be screwed - I expect they will bail from any alliance with the UK ASAP to avoid losing more territory to the USA. If Mexico disavows the subs the crews, in uniform or not, are now pirates which is not good for them as well as having no place to go when they run short on fuel or ammunition. Their only hope is to run back to the UK if they have the range.

Japan is now facing the USA, and the Pacific forces of France and Germany for starts. The ANZACs may join in against Japan at some point. The UK is going to have so much trouble close to home that any assistance it might give Japan in the Pacific is weak indeed. Things won't end quickly in the Pacific, or in Europe for that matter but the British, Mexicans, and Japanese drew to an inside straight and busted.
 

Admiral Halsey

Banned
You know i'm even wondering how the Atlantic side of the war can last for more then a couple years. The British will be starving soon enough and once the people get hungry enough goodbye Mr. Churchill. As for the Pacific theater well given the Japanese ITTL seem to be even more fanatical one can only hope that the atom bomb is speed up a lot compared to OTL otherwise the death toll will be catastrophic for all involved.
 
Kaiser Chris

Kaiser Chris

Yeah Austria-Hungary is really screwed here. The Austrians want to join Germany, the Slavs are fighting for freedom, and it looks like Hungary just declared independence. That does raise the question, is the new Kingdom of Hungary wanting to ally with the Fascist/Communist league, or are they going to try and negotiate a deal with Mitteleuropa?

Also there's no way that Britain is going to win this war due to not having America as an ally and facing both the Imperial German Navy and the U.S Navy. I give it by the end of 1939 before the United States has full control of the Western hemisphere.
 
Jim Smitty

Jim Smitty

Ok good thoughts guy on what is going in the death throws of Austria-Hungary, yet no one has come to heading the head square on.

Anyways I don't know when the next update is going to be. I'm beyond sick at the moment and trying to start the Iceland Campaign. Outside Red Storm Rising I don't know of any other works that deal with a ground campaign on Iceland, so if you guys have anything I'm all ears.
 

Admiral Halsey

Banned
IIRC one of the books in "The Big One" series at least mentions an attempted Icelandic invasion. Otherwise Red Storm Rising is the only book I know of as well that actually details an invasion of Iceland.
 
Greenland Invaded
  • Index
    • Jim Smitty

    Jim Smitty

    NAS Jackson [1]
    Command Headquarters
    February 6 1939


    At the moment the naval air crews at NAS Jackson were hoping. This was withstanding the fact the temperature was hovering around 2 degrees Fahrenheit at the moment. The people manning the weather station doubted it was going to get any warner today either. Yet the whole reason the base was hoping was because the fact they were looking for the British fleet that was supporting the landings on Iceland that started yesterday. Even through the port was froze over the seaplanes were using their landing gear to take part in the search for the British fleet. The Cats[2] operating here had been designed to operated both from the water in the summer months and from the land strips the rest of the year.


    Yet they were also one of the most isolated bases on Greenland at the moment. The base defenses were designed with the knowledge the port here was iced over most of the year making taking almost impossible. It was why there was only a platoon of Marines to defend the base from the British from a ground invasion. Besides the Marines there were only a few naval guns to defend the base from an air attack. But for the most the base was largely defensive from what was coming.


    The British had deployed four seaplane tenders together with a regiment of British infantry to take a small town on the northern coast of Iceland. Once the locals were under control the British launched Operation Pen. Operation Pen was designed to remove the threat to their fleet by removing NAS Jackson from the board. They launched a total of 42 old and outdated Rangoon[3] seaplanes loaded up not with weapons but soldiers of the Scottish Rifles. The Rangoon had been selected for this mission as it was an outdated aircraft that wouldn’t be missed if they lost most of them. Further it was able to carry a large number of soldiers.


    For the Americans the first sign that something was wrong was when the tower started to pick up far too many visual sightings for aircraft that were inbound. They would normally only pick up one or two Cats at the same time returning from patrol, but within minutes they knew they had at least 30 aircraft inbound for them. They set off the base air raid alarm which caused the base to kick into overdrive as the men at the base ran to their battlestations.


    To the shock of the Americans the British weren’t coming in to bomb them, but they were coming into land. The gun crews opened fire with a total of 4 3inch DP guns and three dozen machine guns. The 3 inch guns were able to claim a pair of the Rangoons with the machine guns accounting for three more. But that still left 37 aircraft with 14 soldiers each landing on the airfields. The machine guns could train low enough to fire on the infantry exiting the aircraft, but the 3 inch guns were out of the fight. This left the platoon of Marines to deal with 518 British soldiers and 74 British pilots who were doubling as ground troops.


    For over the next five hours the British and Americans fought it out for control of the air base. The sailors who manned the base fought with the Marines but there wasn’t enough weapons to go around for the roughly 600 sailors who manned the base to have their own rifle or submachine gun. This left many sailors fighting highly trained troops with nothing more than 45 pistols. Yet by the end of it, the British were left in control of the base, well what was left of it.


    [1] Located around the OTL town of Ittoqqortoormiit. ITL the town is founded by the US primary as a naval air station in 1933 instead of being founded in 1925 as per OTL.

    [2] Modified PBYs

    [3] Short Singapore
     
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    • cortz#9

    The Brits are getting some first good licks in but unless the Russians and Japanese pull off some stunning early victories as well, I can't see the Brits luck lasting too much longer.
    Cool update Smitty.
     
    Jim Smitty

    Jim Smitty

    Grimbald said:
    Is the nominal Head of the House of Windsor still Head of State? Who is that at this point?
    Click to expand...
    In theory yeah, Empresses Victoria III is still officially the head of state. But she is really only a puppet of Churchill. He holds all the cards in the British Empire at the moment.
     
    Battle of Denmark Straits Pt I
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    • Jim Smitty

    Jim Smitty

    USS Langley, CV-21
    North Atlantic
    February 7 1939


    Vice Admiral William “Bill” Armbruster was on the bridge of the Langley as he watched the aircraft assigned to her carrier air group take off for the first major mission being performed by the United States Navy since the start of the world. They had a good fix on the British Carriers that were operating in support of the British Invasions of Iceland and Greenland and they were launching their attack. Armbruster had five other carriers taking part in this sortie to strike back at the British. His flag through was on the Langley as it was the newest carrier that had been commissioned into the fleet. She had only been accepted into the fleet last October. The Hornet wasn’t excepted to be ready for the fleet till sometime next year at the earliest so Armbruster needed to make sure he won this.


    All told he was sending 400 aircraft at the British in a massive strike package. He was holding to the remaining 140 aircraft in this task force for carrier air patrol duties and reserves. But he wanted to make his first strike hurt for the British. Even the Army Air Force was getting on the act and had at least three squadrons of B-29 bombers operating off Greenland going in for an attack on the British Royal Navy as they were invading Greenland and Iceland. There were also three submarine squadrons at sea at the moment who had orders to try and thin out the British some. This was truly a massive operation as everyone and their brother knew the British would try to invade Iceland.


    Unknown to the Americans at the moment was how badly they had crippled British Carrier Air Wings in the opening day of the war. The day before the war started the British had a fleet carrier air wings that in theory were over 1,000 aircraft strong. However, with the growth of aircraft over the years it was more in reality 958 aircraft for their fleet carriers. They could get an extra 138 aircraft from their light aircraft carriers. But in their opening strike of the war the British lost 369 aircraft and crews all together and further 49 aircraft but recovered those crews. They simply didn’t except American Air Defenses to be that effect and because of this more than a few carriers were tied up pier side with no carrier aircraft as they didn’t have any aircraft to operate off them. The reserves were painfully thin and weren’t ready to be sent into combat yet. Further in British operating planning those reserve units had been detailed to help defend the Channel and they weren’t carrier qualified anymore. A total of the three carriers out of the five the British operating as part of the overall invasion of Iceland and Greenland were operating with polyglot units to all them to operate at full strength or something close to full strength.


    Yet now the battle was in the hands of junior officers and enlisted men as the planes were taking off for what was shaping up to be the largest carrier battle to date. But besides carriers there were over a dozen battleships, dozens of cruisers and submarines, over hundred destroyers on both sides taking part in this battle. If they were honest with themselves this was shaping up to be the largest naval battle yet fought.
     
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    • Admiral Halsey

    Banned
    Sound like the British carriers are suffering from the same problems Japan OTL was. Jim what does the carrier training regime look like for the various nations?
     

    sloreck

    Assuming that luck is equal, and that individual pilots are equally well trained/experienced, the British are going to lose more aircraft than the Americans because of the ad hoc nature of their squadrons. All other things being equal, pieced together units don't do as well as "unified" units. With the Americans doing better than 1:1, while they might take some serious losses in the first strike, they will cripple the British aviation elements and if they sink or seriously damage 1 or 2 carriers the British are even more screwed. A second strike under these conditions will functionally finish off the British carrier force, and now the US carrier aviation strike elements can have a field day with any British surface ships they can catch.

    Army aviation elements would be best utilized by striking at British positions on Greenland and Iceland, OTL unless specifically trained (like B-25s skip bombing) Army aviation units did poorly against naval forces, and heavy bombers (assume ITTLs B-29s are heavies of some sort) had more or less zero hits on ships.

    By the end of this, unless the British have almost ASB level luck, the limited British forces who took the NAS on Greenland will be flushed out quickly (maybe 350 unwounded after the initial assault), and those on Iceland are now cut off and will only hold out a little longer. The British could try to fly out wounded and fly in reinforcements and supplies, although the distance involved is substantial and maybe a few sub runs, but their presence on Iceland only lasts as long as it takes for the USA to get a landing force together. I expect those on Iceland will be told to hold as long as they can and expect no help - if things go as it is most probable they will, Britain is going to need everything they have to stave off the USA on one side and continental foes on the other.

    Some interesting thoughts, with France against Britain, and Germany soon able to devote efforts in that direction, the Channel is going to be a difficult place for the British and coastal convoys even worse off than OTL with light naval forces and a much larger "enemy" air element on the continental side of the Channel than OTL. Given the hostility between the UK and France, do both countries have 16"-18" guns deployed in numbers across narrow parts of the channel? These would be in a combination of fixed positions and designated rail lines with tunnels/revetments.
     
    Jim Smitty

    Jim Smitty

    For the record British FFA primary fighter is the Hawker Hotspur and it doubles as their primary dive bomber as well with the torpedo bomber being most the Fairey Albacore.

    The USN primary fighter is the F4F Wildcat, with the SBD Dauntless being the primary dive bomber, and for their torpedo bomber the USN makes use of the TBD Devastator. The Devastator is being replaced at the moment by the TBF Avenger but only a few of those have reached the fleet so far. Only a single squadron of them are in the battle on the American side.
     

    sloreck

    If the fighter battle is going to be Wildcats vs Hotspurs, the British are going to come off very very badly. The wildcat is much more maneuverable (hard to believe), and can absorb a lot of damage especially from the .303 armament of the Hotspur. The .50s of the Wildcat should do a number on the Hotspur. While TBDs are low performing, compared to the Albacores they are world beaters - I wonder how well Albacores will do against the CAP. The SBD will rapidly become feared by the RN.

    A final, but sad point. Any aircrew or survivors of a sinking ship that go in to these waters in February has maybe 5 minutes before they will succumb to hpothermia. Getting in a life raft will help, but still they will be soaked...
     
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