A New Balance

[Jim Smitty]

Vienna
Train Station
January 21 1939


Archduke Otto was returning to Vienna following the news that his father had suffered his third heart attack in the past seven years. Otto had been taking a few weeks to vacation at Mayerling Hunting Lodge after only returning the powers of the Emperor-King of the Austro Hungarian nation to his father a few weeks ago. Otto knew at the very least he would be regent again for the foreseeable future. He could possibly be forced to becoming the Emperor-King of the nation if his father didn’t recover from this. His father had even talked about abdication shortly before Otto had ended his second regency, however Otto had talked his father out of such a move. Partly out politics and partly out of the fact Otto didn’t want to be Emperor-King yet.


Yet, the news he had received at Mayerling wasn’t promising. There was some question if Emperor-King Franz Ferdinand would live to see the night. As such he had a special train to bring him back to Vienna to see his father just in case god decided it was time to call his father home. His royal train was coming to a stop at the train station after the short trip returning from Mayerling. It was clear that the news of what happened to Franz Ferdinand was spreading in Vienna as there was a growing crowd of onlookers who wanted to see the next in line to the Austro-Hungarian throne. He was waiting for his personal guard detail to clear a path to allow him to get to his personal Ganz limo without being at too much of a risk of being attacked. There had already been four efforts on the life of the Archduke.


As his personal guard was clearing the path Otto’s thoughts returned to that of his new wife. She had told him yesterday that she was expecting their first child. At his age, it was well past time Otto started having children that were legitimate his. However, the problem of who would be his wife was major political problem within the empire that had only been put to bed last year. He had married a Hungarian noble of high rank. He really even didn’t like the woman, but the Hungarians were pushing for the marriage and to keep the empire together he had agreed even through she was 23 years his junior. She was beautiful, but her personally was black as hell. Yet he had managed to perform his husbandly duties and fathered a child with her. He knew he was still shooting live rounds as he had fathered his fifth child with one of his mistresses only last year. So it wasn’t a surprised that he was going to be a father again. But it would be the first time he would be able to inform the empire about that fact.


The colonel who was in charge of the personal security detail knocked at the door. Otto spoke, “Enter.”


At that the colonel entered the train car, “Sir we are ready to move.”


“Very well then colonel, let’s move.”


At that the two of them started to move through the train to the get off and to the waiting car. Unknown to either man there were four Romanians all from Transylvania in the crowd. There were all soldiers within the Common Army, one of the three armies in the Austro-Hungarian Empire. They were also deserters. They had all met when they had tried to get visas to travel to different parts of the world. Two wanted to travel to the Imperial Federation, the other two wanted to go to Romania itself. But because of changes in the laws of the empire they had been forced into the Common Army and stationed on the Austro-Hungarian German border to defend against a possible German attack.


They hated the treatment they had to take by their Austrian and Hungarian officers some of who had a cruel streak in them a kilometer wide. Only three days ago they had when over the hill, but not before they had helped themselves to some weapons from the armory. With moral in the Common Army being in the tank, it had been very easy to get weapons and go away before anyone noticed. They all had pistols and two of them were armed with M1935 submachine guns. They then had made their way to Vienna in an effort to kill members of the government who had forced them into the Common Army. They had only reached Vienna today, but on hearing the news of what had happened to Franz Ferdinand, they had changed their targets and moved to the train station.


As they made their way through the crowd they could see their target. The two with the submachine guns had modified them. They had removed the bipods and the removable weight in the submachine gun to give them a higher rate of fire. Currently their submachine guns were hidden by the coats they wore. But when they were close enough one of them yelled out, “Freedom!” At that they open fire at their target.


The personal guards of Archduke Otto had good reaction times, however, it still wasn’t fast enough. All four men were dead within 58 seconds from the time one had yelled freedom. However Archduke Otto had stopped one of the 9 mm rounds with his neck. He bucked for a minute or two as he gasped for air that wouldn’t come. The Crown Prince of the Austro-Hungarian, and countless others lay dead on a train station platform in Vienna.


His father lasted only 57 more minutes before death claimed him as well.

 

[AJustMonster]

&^*% how did I screw that up? But you are right.

I've fixed my reply.

 

[sloreck]

Franz Ferdinand survived, but his son is assassinated. I assume that in this world, unlike OTL, his marriage was not morganatic and his wife was suitable to produce a legitimate heir. Once again, the Balkans have lit the fuze...

 

[cortz#9]

Its not always good to be the king.

 

[Jim Smitty]

Franz Ferdinand survived, but his son is assassinated. I assume that in this world, unlike OTL, his marriage was not morganatic and his wife was suitable to produce a legitimate heir. Once again, the Balkans have lit the fuze...

Franz Ferdinand did have a morganatic marriage ITL instead of his left hand marriage of OTL. But he died about an hour after his son did. There was something of a debate if they should tell him or not if his son died, but he settled that debate by dying first. So the next king could be the unborn child in a his wife, who is a total bitch. Or it could be a cousin, as the way I understand the A-H monarch is it couldn't be a female leading it unless there are no other suitable choices around. So yeah A-H is in for fun times.

 

[lukedalton]

Franz Ferdinand did have a morganatic marriage ITL instead of his left hand marriage of OTL. But he died about an hour after his son did. There was something of a debate if they should tell him or not if his son died, but he settled that debate by dying first. So the next king could be the unborn child in a his wife, who is a total bitch. Or it could be a cousin, as the way I understand the A-H monarch is it couldn't be a female leading it unless there are no other suitable choices around. So yeah A-H is in for fun times.

Ehm...in a deep voice just out of a movie trailer and tak...doing an homage to Babylon 5 (one of my favorite show):

SO IT'S BEGIN

US marine: they were the years of fire
Russian paesant: the years of destruction
italian soldier: the years we took back what ours
French sailor: they were the years of rebirth
A-H general: the years of great sadness
British Tommy: the years of pain
unendified civilian: and the years of joy
Japanese officer: it was the end of history
collage of common people from everywhere: they were the years were everything changed

 

[Jim Smitty]

Peruvian Artillery Base
Near the Chilean Border
January 21 1939


Unaware of events playing out in Vienna, the Peruvian Army was getting to strike. This plan had been designed over the past few months together with their uneasy allies Bolivia and Argentina. It was a case of the enemy of my enemy is my friend. They all hated Chile for different reasons and they had met in secret and decided to take out their revenge on Chile together. Peru and Bolivia hated Chile for what had happened in the War of the Pacific[1] and they wanted their land back. However Peru had their own reasons for wanting another go with Chile, they wanted to expand the revolution to another South American nation, this time by force of arms.


Peru saw itself as the leader of the Com Block in the Western Hemisphere by being the first communist nation to take over the reins of power from the Bourgeoisie. They had helped their communist brothers in Colombia overthrow the Bourgeoisie. The plan had been to invade Ecuador in the name of bring the revolution to them. That was for the public through. Peru really wanted to enforce their version of the Peruvian-Ecuadorian border on Quito. However the Communist in Ecuador managed to beat them to the punch and overthrew the Bourgeoisie prior to Peru liberate the lands that rightfully belong to Peru. Since Ecuador had become a Com Block member put them off limits from being attacked Peru, and Lima knew that.


So their turned their eyes south. Yet they understood that if they attacked Chile by themselves they risked a war with Bolivia possibly supported by Argentina. Even with the advances Peru had made since the rise of the proletariat the people running Lima knew that was a war they would likely lose. So instead they when to both and offered an alliance to destroy Chile. On paper both Bolivia and Peru would regain what they had lost in the War of the Pacific with Argentina getting the rest of Patagonia that was currently owned by Peru.


They were betting that Brazil wouldn’t do nothing and the US would only seize control of some of the Pacific Islands that Chile own to keep them falling to the communist, if not all of them. Possibly a port strike as what happened with Ecuador but a full scale invasion, they highly doubt that would happen. With Argentina being a British lap dog, the British would try to meddle in this affair. Germany didn’t have the projection power to do shit. Unknown to any of them lines had been drawn in the sand.


Yet none of this matter to the artillery crews manning the British built, BL 60 Pounder field guns. Even through Peru had worked insanely hard on building up its industries they were still depended on foreign suppliers for larger artillery. The only nation in the world that could supply them was the Soviet Union as they were the only ones who could make heavy artillery. Yet they were short on their own artillery so they only allowed captured British or French guns to be sent to South America. It was how British guns came to be in use by the Peruvians.


The drone of aircraft engines could be heard above them on their way to attack the Chilean Air Force based in the border regions. For the political commissars assigned to the units took this as their sign that it was time to open fire on the fix defensives of the Chileans. Across thousands of miles guns from three nations opened fire in what was the start of a much wider war than anyone who was in the planning of this war believed would happen.


[1] It was largely OTL, so it really wasn’t worth covering in the leadup updates.

 

[cortz#9]

So another case of the best of laid out plans spoiled by the fickle finger of fate.

 

[DarkObelisk]

They really should have asked permission from the US & Brazil before they decided to partition Chile.

Now as to what will be the second world war, I don't see anyway Japan & the UK can come out ahead, the Soviets might since it will be a ground war for them. But not Japan & the UK. Now between the two of them, their navies have more tonnage & guns then the US & German Navies.
But I do not believe that they can win against the US & Germany. I think the deciding battles will not be between battle fleets, but by cruisers, destroyers & subs.
No matter how much industry Japan & the UK have. They are reliant on their merchant marine fleets to keep their home islands going. Cut that off and they die.

On the other hand it will be impossible to cut the US's internal supply lines, and Germany should manage to get by with France & Scandinavian on their side.

One interesting thought I had, was that here, the Liberty Ships that get mass produced once the US industry kicks into high gear might be destroyers.
Imagine if you will a raiding strategy being a major component of the US navy operations plan, with the objective of sinking the Japanese & British merchant fleets. If they had a destroyer design that could be mass produced at the rate of 2-3 weeks per ship. Imagine the havoc these could cause if they could be produced by the hundred and deployed in wolfpacks.

 

[RamscoopRaider]

One interesting thought I had, was that here, the Liberty Ships that get mass produced once the US industry kicks into high gear might be destroyers.
Imagine if you will a raiding strategy being a major component of the US navy operations plan, with the objective of sinking the Japanese & British merchant fleets. If they had a destroyer design that could be mass produced at the rate of 2-3 weeks per ship. Imagine the havoc these could cause if they could be produced by the hundred and deployed in wolfpacks.

You can't really mass produce Destroyers like that. The bottle neck on destroyers is in cutting the gears for their turbines. That needs special machinery, that isn't really used for anything else, you can't easily increase production which is why the Liberty ships were powered by old style triple expansion engines. It took until 1944 before the US had enough turbines to spare for anything but warships, and even then those spare turbines were much lighter models than used on DD's (6000-8500shp vs. 5-60,000shp), before that point many warships were using other propulsion methods that left them rather slow

This ignores the fact that a DD at 35 knots plus experiences a lot more stress than a merchant at 17 knots, making prefabbing a lot more difficult. Plus a DD has a lot more fiddly bits, things like Radar, fire control systems, complex gun mountings and plumbing and such for 5x as many crew. In addition the US built warships out of special treatment steel while merchants could use plain old structural steel. All of which makes DD's a lot harder to mass produce, and in any case the average Liberty ship took 6 weeks to produce, not 2-3, and benefited from building the WWI Hog Islanders (which probably never happened ITTL)

WWII Destroyers are also shit open sea raiders. They don't have much cruising range, in heavy weather can actually be slower than even a Standard BB, don't have the height of mast for seeing at long range, and can't carry a float plane for scouting, plus they can't take damage and expect to escape

 

[Jim Smitty]

The coming naval war is going to be a fairly massive affair giving the way the sides are shaping up. But I have to agree with all of Ramscoop said about destroyers and merchants. The more modern battlecruisers which honestly, I'm surprised no one has said anything about those, are what most nations want to raid with, together with submarines. They are big enough to take on heavy cruisers and win, but fast enough to out run most battleships. Those things through take time to build. In some coming updates I will go into more details about the naval side of things before bullets start flying everywhere.

 

[sloreck]

Expecting the Brazilians to stay out of this is very wishful thinking on the part of the communists. The Brazilians don't want any more communist nations close by, and certainly would be unhappy to see Chile chopped up and Argentina expand if they get a chunk of Chile. The USA will intervene, and am sure will drag some South/Central American nations in to a coalition. The communists can't ignore attacks from non-communist neighbors and will need to divert forces to protect their territory. Finally the industrial capacity of these countries for modern war is quite limited. They can expect zero support from the UK, Japan, or USSR as the UK and Japan will need all their merchant shipping to supply their needs and those of their empires, even before the USN and KM begin to whittle down their shipping, and the USSR has a limited merchant navy to begin with. OTOH Chile, and any other South/Central American allies will be able to be resupplied by the USA almost without interference. The ability of the British or the Japanese to interfere with shipping from the USA south is minimal, and once any assets that might be in place (mostly British in the Caribbean) have been run down that will be that. The distances between Japan and the pacific routes from the USA south are vast.

I can't see the ANZACs as being happy with the current tripartite pact. They certainly have no affinity for communism, and the Japanese are more problematic than the Americans. IMHO the USA would be perfectly happy with the current territorial status quo in the Pacific between themselves and the ANZACs. Additionally trans-Pacific trade with the USA could be more profitable in the long run. If (big if) there is adroit diplomacy by Germany and the USA, the ANZACs could remain neutral in the upcoming conflict. If the Japanese decide to use this as an excuse to "temporarily occupy strategic locations" belonging to the ANZACs... (stupid on their part but not ASB)

 

[Jim Smitty]

London
10 Downing Street
January 23 1939


With the events of the last 48 hours, very few, if any, world leaders had gotten any sleep. Austria-Hungary was in a state of confusion following the deaths of Franz Ferdinand and Archduke Otto. There was a question of who really was the Emperor-King of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Archduke Felix who had been next in the line of succession was claiming that the crown belonged to him, but the wife of Archduke Otto was claiming she was pregnant with his child. If the child was a male it would make the him the next monarch of the Austro-Hungarians. It was a freaking nightmare as the Austrians and Hungarians were fighting over who the crown when to.


Then there was the whole mess in South America. Brazil, Paraguay, Venezuela, and the United States were able mobilizing because of the unproved attacked on Chile. It’s not that the people in this room had issues with this attack they just wished they had been informed beforehand so they could had talked them back from the edge. Yet it was unclear if any of those nations that were mobilizing would take part in the crisis that was forming because of what happened in Europe. If they were to stay out of the European Crisis that was unfolding if would be perfect for the British if they had waited for the second phase of their planned.


In their long term planning the British had decided to perform two wars to regain Pax Britannica that had been lost during the Great War. The first war was to be against Germany and her allies. They understood that there was no way they could force defeat of Germany and her allies in Europe itself. This was where the alliance with the Soviets came in. Only the Soviets would be able to defeat the Germans on the ground with some help from Austria-Hungary. In the meantime the British would defeat the Germans and her allies on the high seas and pick off their colonies. Once Germany and her allies were defeated the British would take time to learn their lessons from this war and bring in the resources from their newly gain colonies to build up their military so they could defeat the United States in a short but decisive war that would make it clear the British were once again the ruler of the waves. In this war they wanted to knock the United States back into the Americas instead of having the global reach they currently had.


As the leaders of the British Empire were planning their next move they were informed that the Austro-Hungarian Ambassador was here to see them with important news. Churchill spoke for the group, “Send him in.”


It only took a few moments for the Austro-Hungarian Ambassador to be shown into the war room that were being used at the moment. After all the normal greetings that when at a meeting between groups like this the Austro-Hungarian Ambassador started to speak about a deal that had been struck between the Austrian and the Hungarians. “Sir, we have reached a deal about the future of our leadership of our nation along with others issues that we felt we needed to inform our allies about.”


This message had come down to the Austro-Hungarian Embassy only hours ago in the one-time code pad to make sure no one could break into this code unless they had the code books. “We have reached an agreement between the Austrians and Hungarians on who will rule. Archduke Felix is being named as regent of the empire pending the birth of the child that Princess Emma is carrying. If Princess Emma’s unborn child is a male it will be the next ruler of the empire. If this is the case Archduke Felix will stay on as the regent till he is ready to take over the powers of his position. If Princess Emma’s child is a woman, Felix will become the ruler of the empire.”


All of the British nodded as this agreement between the Austrians and Hungarians made sense. The British knew that the only thing that had been holding the Austro-Hungarian Empire since at least the mid-1920s was the fear of Berlin. If they didn’t come to an agreement, they most likely would fall part and be picked apart by the Germans and Italians. But they knew from his tone there was more.


“My government through has reason to believe that the Romanian Government was behind the death of Archduke Otto.” The Austro-Hungarian Government knew it was a couple of ethnic Romanians who were deserters from the Common Army that were the real assassins who killed Archduke Otto. Yet for domestic political reasons they couldn’t admit to that fact. Not giving with all of the ethnic issues their nation faced. If they did that they faced the possibly of an ethnic revolt from god knows how many different groups as they were all fearful that they would be the next Italians or Serbians. It was why they had pushed in strict laws about people leaving their nation as they had been hovering just above zero population growth since the early 1920s. They couldn’t maintain that and they knew it. If it got out that one of the minorities of the empire killed both the Austrians and Hungarians doubted they could survive as nation. So, they were blaming the Kingdom of Romania for the death of Archduke Otto.


“My government is presenting the government in Bucharest with an ultimatum for their plot to kill the next in line to our throne in our time of need.” The ultimatum had been worded in such a way that it would lead to a war. This was primary because they knew everyone in Bucharest would have no idea what the hell they were talking about. They were hoping for a short victorious war over the Romanians would ease a lot of the problems they faced in their nations.


Churchill noticed the wording used to phase that and cringed a little. “Is this an ultimatum you are sending or have sent already?”


“We are sending it at the moment.”


Before Churchill could make another statement, an aid came running in, “Sir you need to hear this.”

 

[lukedalton]

The damned fools had learned nothing from the last war isn't?

 

[Jim Smitty]

The damned fools had learned nothing from the last war isn't?

Who are you talking about?

 

[rommel12]

It seems that the war began for the supremacy of euro'pa.

 

[sloreck]

So much for the plans of the UK. If A-H is fighting Romania, they really, really, don't want to get dragged in to a war with Germany. Given the potmess their military is fighting on two fronts is simply not doable for them. IMHO the UK is now faced with the options of putting the brakes on their plans for war in Europe - nothing has started so they can avoid pulling the trigger - or going ahead and realizing A-H is out of the fight, and they can only be a "helpful" neutral so much without Germany coming down on them. The smart move is "he who fights and runs away, lives to fight another day" and hold off on the European war. Of course, not starting the wider war is going to throw the combloc South Americans under the bus. Without the "distraction" of a wider war the USA and it's South American allies will wipe the floor with the combloc in S.A. The Russians can't do much to help, and if the British try and run any blockade or have "unknown" submarines attack US shipping (like OTL Spanish Civil War) they can be drawn in to a conflict they don't want.

IMHO the Americans and the Germans will want to try and avoid conflict here, especially the Americans would prefer to fight one war at a time rather than the Pacific area, the RN in the Caribbean and Atlantic, plus the South American mess. Depending on how much of the British machinations the ANZACS learn about, that may be enough for them to pull away - they certainly are not up for fighting and bleeding to make the RN ruler of the waves.

 

[lukedalton]

Who are you talking about?

A short victorious war to solve all problems...after all what can go wrong

 

[Zoidberg12]

Its looks like World War II, or this worlds version of it, has just begun. In all likelihood, the Austro-Hungarian Empire will probably not survive this war. After what they did to Veneto and Serbia, I admit that I can't wait to see them crash and burn.

Also, I never though I'd read a timeline with Austria-Hungary and the Soviet Union fighting a war on the same side.

 

[cortz#9]

Its looks like World War II, or this worlds version of it, has just begun. In all likelihood, the Austro-Hungarian Empire will probably not survive this war. After what they did to Veneto and Serbia, I admit that I can't wait to see them crash and burn.

Also, I never though I'd read a timeline with Austria-Hungary and the Soviet Union fighting a war on the same side.

With Britain no less.