Even as I was reading that last, I was thinking how if I were them, I'd just want to cash out and run. A job of ceremonial patsy would have to be annoying enough for such a move.
A New Balance
- Thread starter Jim Smitty
- Start date
Dlg123
Banned
Wrong. Battlecruisers would be CC, not BC(at least in the US). BC would be for "large cruisers". (BC, big cruiser, get it?)
That would be correct if this had been OTL Hull Classification system used, however with a POD in 1873 I am not using the OTL Hull Classification system. ITL the Hull Classification Systems has Battlecruisers as BC instead of CC.
China is Dead
Berlin
Schloss Charlottenburg
November 1 1938
Chancellor Hugo von Kaspar was drinking a hot cup of coffee as he was getting his wits about him to brief the Kaiser. The Treaty of Rangoon had been only signed hours ago, but it was already causing a shit storm of an epic scale as everyone worldwide was trying to get a handle on what had happened there. The treaty came as a total surprise to the Germans who had been getting ready to greet Chinese President Gaoli who was making a trip to Europe and the Americas to drum up support for the Chinese nation. Yet once he reached Rangoon things when sideways and quickly.
This trip came as a surprise to Berlin and others who had a stake in China. After the fall of Wuhan to the Japanese many hoped it was a sign that the warlords were rallying around Gaoli to form a united defensive front against Japan. Because of the Japanese having all of the Chinese coast shut down to Chinese shipping Gaoli flew out of China to Rangoon. At Rangoon, the Germans had the battlecruiser SMS Roon there waiting to bring Gaoli to Europe. They were hoping it would create favor with Gaoli. But he never met with the German team to escort him to the battlecruiser.
When Gaoli had surfaced at the Japanese consulate at Rangoon was when flash traffic started being send along diplomatic cables. It was this message that caused Chancellor von Kaspar to be woken up at 3:31 in the morning with the news of the signing of the treaty. Paul von Lettow-Vorbeck the foreign minister of Germany came in. His eyes were just as blood shocked as Chancellor von Kaspar. Hugo spoke first, “Paul is it as bad as I think it is?”
After turning over the page in the report he was leading, “Its worse than what you are thinking Hugo. It’s worse than what I feared.”
Kaiser Wilhelm the Third walked in at the end of the sentence by his Foreign Minister. “Just how bad is it Paul?”
“Your majesty.” Both men said.
“So how bad is it?” The Kaiser asked again.
Paul started, “Sir, New Bonn[1] is totally cut off from China now. The Japanese have taken over all the territory around it, and the closest Chinese held territory to New Bonn is now over 100 kilometers away from the way I’m leading this treaty.” Everyone knew that meant economically New Bonn was dead as it made its money via trade with the well built up port there. With the Japanese on the border meant it was dead as the Japanese wouldn’t use the German port.
Going on, “It’s the same story in the north the Japanese cut off our colony from the rest of the nations. From what I can tell the Japanese did this to the Americans as well.” Taking a break to get his thoughts together, “This is taking a massive bit out of China and its designed to make ours and the American holdings in China worthless. The same holds for the enclaves in Shanghai, Tientsin, and Canton. The Japanese have taken over all of those cities.”
Flipping the page again, “Well this is surprising.” Paul said.
“What’s that Paul?” Hugo asked.
“It seems the British have increased their holdings around Hong Kong.”
“How much you want to bet that was the British price for allowing this to happen?” Hugo thought out loud.”
“I don’t take sucker bets Hugo.” The Kaiser answered.
“Anyways,” Paul when on, “it seems that the Japanese have just taken over the bulk of the Chinese coast. Its tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands kilometers of land being annexed by the Japanese in this treaty.”
“It can’t be just that Paul.” The Kaiser said.
“You are right sir.” Paul answered. “The Chinese are to pay a 2.5 billion tael indemnity to the Japanese over the next 15 years.”
“There is no way the Chinese can afford that.” Hugo stated.
“Very true Hugo.” Paul said. “But it gets worse, the Japanese can seize Chinese trade if they fall behind on the payments of this indemnity the Japanese can seize Chinese trade to make up for the short fall. Further the interest rate is set at 13.5%. The Japanese have basically made this treaty to break the Chinese nation.”
“What about President Gaoli?” The Kaiser asked.
“There is nothing I seen in the public treaty we have seen so far that says it, but my hunch is the Japanese simply brought him off. But we know his wife has been in Switzerland for the past few weeks for medical treatment. So she most likely broker the treaty with her husband signing it today. But honestly we can just stick a fork in China at this point, the Chinese people will never accept this, but it’s a cluster now.”
[1] Guanghouwan prior to its take over by the Germans. Now known as Zhanjiang in OTL 2017.
Schloss Charlottenburg
November 1 1938
Chancellor Hugo von Kaspar was drinking a hot cup of coffee as he was getting his wits about him to brief the Kaiser. The Treaty of Rangoon had been only signed hours ago, but it was already causing a shit storm of an epic scale as everyone worldwide was trying to get a handle on what had happened there. The treaty came as a total surprise to the Germans who had been getting ready to greet Chinese President Gaoli who was making a trip to Europe and the Americas to drum up support for the Chinese nation. Yet once he reached Rangoon things when sideways and quickly.
This trip came as a surprise to Berlin and others who had a stake in China. After the fall of Wuhan to the Japanese many hoped it was a sign that the warlords were rallying around Gaoli to form a united defensive front against Japan. Because of the Japanese having all of the Chinese coast shut down to Chinese shipping Gaoli flew out of China to Rangoon. At Rangoon, the Germans had the battlecruiser SMS Roon there waiting to bring Gaoli to Europe. They were hoping it would create favor with Gaoli. But he never met with the German team to escort him to the battlecruiser.
When Gaoli had surfaced at the Japanese consulate at Rangoon was when flash traffic started being send along diplomatic cables. It was this message that caused Chancellor von Kaspar to be woken up at 3:31 in the morning with the news of the signing of the treaty. Paul von Lettow-Vorbeck the foreign minister of Germany came in. His eyes were just as blood shocked as Chancellor von Kaspar. Hugo spoke first, “Paul is it as bad as I think it is?”
After turning over the page in the report he was leading, “Its worse than what you are thinking Hugo. It’s worse than what I feared.”
Kaiser Wilhelm the Third walked in at the end of the sentence by his Foreign Minister. “Just how bad is it Paul?”
“Your majesty.” Both men said.
“So how bad is it?” The Kaiser asked again.
Paul started, “Sir, New Bonn[1] is totally cut off from China now. The Japanese have taken over all the territory around it, and the closest Chinese held territory to New Bonn is now over 100 kilometers away from the way I’m leading this treaty.” Everyone knew that meant economically New Bonn was dead as it made its money via trade with the well built up port there. With the Japanese on the border meant it was dead as the Japanese wouldn’t use the German port.
Going on, “It’s the same story in the north the Japanese cut off our colony from the rest of the nations. From what I can tell the Japanese did this to the Americans as well.” Taking a break to get his thoughts together, “This is taking a massive bit out of China and its designed to make ours and the American holdings in China worthless. The same holds for the enclaves in Shanghai, Tientsin, and Canton. The Japanese have taken over all of those cities.”
Flipping the page again, “Well this is surprising.” Paul said.
“What’s that Paul?” Hugo asked.
“It seems the British have increased their holdings around Hong Kong.”
“How much you want to bet that was the British price for allowing this to happen?” Hugo thought out loud.”
“I don’t take sucker bets Hugo.” The Kaiser answered.
“Anyways,” Paul when on, “it seems that the Japanese have just taken over the bulk of the Chinese coast. Its tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands kilometers of land being annexed by the Japanese in this treaty.”
“It can’t be just that Paul.” The Kaiser said.
“You are right sir.” Paul answered. “The Chinese are to pay a 2.5 billion tael indemnity to the Japanese over the next 15 years.”
“There is no way the Chinese can afford that.” Hugo stated.
“Very true Hugo.” Paul said. “But it gets worse, the Japanese can seize Chinese trade if they fall behind on the payments of this indemnity the Japanese can seize Chinese trade to make up for the short fall. Further the interest rate is set at 13.5%. The Japanese have basically made this treaty to break the Chinese nation.”
“What about President Gaoli?” The Kaiser asked.
“There is nothing I seen in the public treaty we have seen so far that says it, but my hunch is the Japanese simply brought him off. But we know his wife has been in Switzerland for the past few weeks for medical treatment. So she most likely broker the treaty with her husband signing it today. But honestly we can just stick a fork in China at this point, the Chinese people will never accept this, but it’s a cluster now.”
[1] Guanghouwan prior to its take over by the Germans. Now known as Zhanjiang in OTL 2017.
Despite the quality of the meme, that's unfortunately not a hard, or tough, nitpicking of grammar. Without the change specified the sentence doesn't have the meaning its supposed to, it truly makes no sense at all if kept the same. I'd say that's my main criticism as I go through the timeline. An extra proofread or having updates reviewed before posting is something I would recommend. It will help clear up any issues like that your eyes may pass over during the writing process.
As for content I'm enjoying it well, reading through the first POV pieces as I try to catch up with updates. The dominoes you've set up to launch this alternate WWII are interesting, and I'm ready to watch them fall once I reach that point. Only thought I could give there is that the two major post-WWI genocides, that of the Serbians and the Poles, seem far too easy and far too relaxed.
Now, I'm not against that sort of subject matter being in a timeline, our timeline's history could be dark so why shouldn't the alternatives be. What I just mean though is that even if the populations are dramatically lowered, they shouldn't cease to exist. Areas where Germans faced forced removal from in what was Eastern Prussia still have German populations. There still exists a Jewish population in Europe following the Holocaust, albeit greatly declined from points prior to the greatest tragedy in the history of mankind. I just don't think they can just be written off as done as nations. I'd suspect both would rather be looking for vengeance or a return to ancestral lands either at home or abroad. That'll be something Germany will find harder and harder to occur as time passes and human rights are established.
My issues with grammar are well noted, and honestly much improved since I started writing. Honestly I had thought about a proofreader in the past but never found anyone who could keep up with my pace of writing.
I didn't get into the details of the Serbian or Polish Genocides that took place in the aftermath of the Great War as its known. Neither were easy nor relaxed ITL. It was three genocides through with the Italians being forced out of their home lands in area annexed by Austria-Hungary. All three were bloody affairs that took a lot of efforts to get what happened to happen. There are still Poles, Italians, and Serbians in those areas. But there are far fewer than there and are a clear minorities.
You are correct that there are groups that want to see returns to their homelands. However, once these kinds of genocides happened, short of something like the A4 efforts at rebuilding Poland in the aftermath of the AANW, I don't see any returns happening. Even more as these areas have seen efforts to be repopulated with different ethnic groups. That's no matter the TL IMO. That down the road you could see things happen after the war changes thing in Poland, Serbia, or annexed Italy. But that's after the war.
This is true, but Germany has poor projection abilities in the Pacific, the US has far better projection abilities in the Pacific but they have to cut through the IJN and have to deal with the RN in the Atlantic. They are still unsure about the Imperial Federation in the SW Pacific. At the moment they can be resupplied by sea but in the event war, that becomes very questionable at best.
What does the new Sino-Japanese border look like more or less? What Chinese provinces did the Japanese annex?
I'm not getting into those details for a damn good reason, but massive amounts of Chinese coastline was annexed by Japan, along with some inland areas.
Choices
Washington DC
White House
November 17 1938
President Olsen was viewing the latest information coming out of China that had been handed to him. One thing he had decided after reading the Treaty of Rangoon the only way the Japanese could hold that much of China, of which a quarter of what they had been awarded in the treaty they didn’t yet control, was to make what happened in Poland, Serbia, and Vento look likes child’s play. Because there was no way in hell they could control all of that land they had just annexed. If what happened in the Northern Philippines was anything to go by, this was about to get all kinds of bloody. And China had already been insanely bloody with the number of known massacres that had happened so far[1].
The Treaty of Rangoon had also ended pretense of a united China. Three different major warlords that haven’t yet been crippled by the Japanese had declared to be independence of the Republic of China. They weren’t trying to claimed they ruled all of China it seemed. They were instead claiming difference provinces to be their own nations, well provinces. They were also buying for diplomatic recognition by western nations so they could start buying weapons on credit. The Japanese weren’t giving these new nations recognition and was demanding payment on the indemnity China owed her. The US however was weighting the outcome of giving recognition to these new states forming in the aftermath of Rangoon.
In the aftermath of Treaty of Rangoon had a massive effect in the United States as the question of who lost China started to be asked. It had a major effect in the mid-term elections that saw Republicans come within three seats of retaking the house and reduced the democratic majority in the senate. But congress came backed to Washington soon after the election was over and passed the Two-Ocean Navy Act[2] and the Two Continent Army Act[2]. Both acts had already been signed by President Olsen and had marked a major increase in defense spending by the United States.
Yet Olson was wresting with what do to on the foreign affairs front. He was seriously thinking of giving recognition to these new Chinese republics that were being born in the death of the Republic of China. But he still had to answer with some meaningful way with Japan for this. He had spoken with Secretary of State Gray Underwood at length about this issue yesterday, but he hadn’t made a call yet. They had come up with a range of different plans, some would let Japan know Washington’s displeasure with what Japan had just done to what would all but guarantee to start a war.
After maybe only a few hours of sleep the night before as he weight his choices he pulled out a Double Eagle 20 Dollar Gold Coin. He had been given this coin by his father the day he finished his degree in law. He had never had the need to use it as his father gave him this incase things in his law career when south and needed to get back home. Carl believed it was his lucky coin. He started running the coin through his fingers as he was thinking about his next move. If he acted to lightly the Japanese could take this as a sign of weakness. Yet if he moved to far he would risk starting the next great war. He knew that was something would see nations die in such a war.
Putting the gold coin down he picked up his note pad and started to write down what parts of the plan he planned to use, he wasn’t going to use everything they had brainstorm yesterday, but they were going to use the bulk of it. It still risked a war, but not like using everything they had brainstorm yesterday. But first they needed to reach out to the Germans and form an alliance.
[1] There are four known major massacres ITL that would be on the scale of the OTL Nanking Massacre. As far as major massacre, that is around 100 to 200k or so which I believe the OTL Nanking Massacre was around.
[2] More on these later.
White House
November 17 1938
President Olsen was viewing the latest information coming out of China that had been handed to him. One thing he had decided after reading the Treaty of Rangoon the only way the Japanese could hold that much of China, of which a quarter of what they had been awarded in the treaty they didn’t yet control, was to make what happened in Poland, Serbia, and Vento look likes child’s play. Because there was no way in hell they could control all of that land they had just annexed. If what happened in the Northern Philippines was anything to go by, this was about to get all kinds of bloody. And China had already been insanely bloody with the number of known massacres that had happened so far[1].
The Treaty of Rangoon had also ended pretense of a united China. Three different major warlords that haven’t yet been crippled by the Japanese had declared to be independence of the Republic of China. They weren’t trying to claimed they ruled all of China it seemed. They were instead claiming difference provinces to be their own nations, well provinces. They were also buying for diplomatic recognition by western nations so they could start buying weapons on credit. The Japanese weren’t giving these new nations recognition and was demanding payment on the indemnity China owed her. The US however was weighting the outcome of giving recognition to these new states forming in the aftermath of Rangoon.
In the aftermath of Treaty of Rangoon had a massive effect in the United States as the question of who lost China started to be asked. It had a major effect in the mid-term elections that saw Republicans come within three seats of retaking the house and reduced the democratic majority in the senate. But congress came backed to Washington soon after the election was over and passed the Two-Ocean Navy Act[2] and the Two Continent Army Act[2]. Both acts had already been signed by President Olsen and had marked a major increase in defense spending by the United States.
Yet Olson was wresting with what do to on the foreign affairs front. He was seriously thinking of giving recognition to these new Chinese republics that were being born in the death of the Republic of China. But he still had to answer with some meaningful way with Japan for this. He had spoken with Secretary of State Gray Underwood at length about this issue yesterday, but he hadn’t made a call yet. They had come up with a range of different plans, some would let Japan know Washington’s displeasure with what Japan had just done to what would all but guarantee to start a war.
After maybe only a few hours of sleep the night before as he weight his choices he pulled out a Double Eagle 20 Dollar Gold Coin. He had been given this coin by his father the day he finished his degree in law. He had never had the need to use it as his father gave him this incase things in his law career when south and needed to get back home. Carl believed it was his lucky coin. He started running the coin through his fingers as he was thinking about his next move. If he acted to lightly the Japanese could take this as a sign of weakness. Yet if he moved to far he would risk starting the next great war. He knew that was something would see nations die in such a war.
Putting the gold coin down he picked up his note pad and started to write down what parts of the plan he planned to use, he wasn’t going to use everything they had brainstorm yesterday, but they were going to use the bulk of it. It still risked a war, but not like using everything they had brainstorm yesterday. But first they needed to reach out to the Germans and form an alliance.
[1] There are four known major massacres ITL that would be on the scale of the OTL Nanking Massacre. As far as major massacre, that is around 100 to 200k or so which I believe the OTL Nanking Massacre was around.
[2] More on these later.
Jim what exactly are the ideologies of the Democrats and Republicans now? You wrote that Olsen is a reformer and went against the old southern guard of the party, yet no mention is ever made of a New Deal expy being presented. There's also the fact Roosevelt winning three terms would help the Progressives to take over the Republican Party or at least make them a large enough wing that Coolidge and the Conservatives wouldn't be able to lodge them from power and turn the GOP entirely into the right. So what exactly are the policies of each party?
Each party has different wings, but Olsen is the leader of a new faction of the Dems who figure out that if they want to be a buyable party at the national level they need the black and Hispanic vote instead the old southern guard. They don't throw in racist bits into language anymore. There was a new deal, but it dealt more with new bank laws and checking Wall Street. Think SEC, Glass-Steagall, and stuff like that. The wing Olsen leads is big on checking the power of big business. There were social programs as well that were designed to get people back to work just like OTL. Only ITL there was no social security, instead they got social medical ITL. Not sure on the name, but think of it like Medicare but for everyone.
The Republicans are suffering some infighting at the moment as they are still trying to figure out how to recover from the beatings they took in 30 and 32 when the depression was at its worse. But its cleared out a lot of the old guard who thought they had when far enough in forms of social reform and got too close to big business.
To label either party as the liberal or conservative is a mistake as both parties have them. The Dems ITL are more liberal on social issues at the moment with the Republicans being more conservative in general, but open to some ideas if they subject needs reform badly. The Republicans through are fairly big on government reform as they have seen all three branches are getting a bit unweldly where the Dems don't want to fuck with it. On Foreign Policy through they are united, don't fuck with the US.
Hope that helps, but if not let me know and see if I can clear it up more.
Awesome analysis of the current status of the Democratic and Republican Parties IITL. I found it very interesting to say the least.
Anyways, I decided to make a list of US Presidents IITL. Jim, let me know if anything is incorrect.
18. Ulysses S. Grant (Republican) (1869-1877)
19. Benjamin Bristow (Republican) (1877-1885)
20. Winfield Scott Hancock (Democratic) (1885-1887)
21. William Ralls Morrison (Democratic) (1887-1889)
22. James G. Blaine (Republican) (1889-1893)
23. William McKinley (Republican) (1893-1901)
24. Joseph C. S. Blackburn (Democratic) (1901-1909)
25. Theodore Roosevelt (Republican) (1909-1921)
26. Albert B. Cummins (Republican) (1921-1929)
27. Hiram Johnson (Republican) (1929-1933)
28. Carl Olsen (Democratic) (1933- )
Anyways, I decided to make a list of US Presidents IITL. Jim, let me know if anything is incorrect.
18. Ulysses S. Grant (Republican) (1869-1877)
19. Benjamin Bristow (Republican) (1877-1885)
20. Winfield Scott Hancock (Democratic) (1885-1887)
21. William Ralls Morrison (Democratic) (1887-1889)
22. James G. Blaine (Republican) (1889-1893)
23. William McKinley (Republican) (1893-1901)
24. Joseph C. S. Blackburn (Democratic) (1901-1909)
25. Theodore Roosevelt (Republican) (1909-1921)
26. Albert B. Cummins (Republican) (1921-1929)
27. Hiram Johnson (Republican) (1929-1933)
28. Carl Olsen (Democratic) (1933- )
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For the moment the German and American enclaves on the China coast are valuable as windows in to Japanese China, bases for recon in the area, listening posts for radio intercepts and the like. They can also be used as conduits for funneling weapons to anti-Japanese groups in China. I agree completely that if/when there is an open conflict with Japan they are no more defensible than Hong Kong was OTL The USA and Germany can put in fixed defenses the Japanese will have to work around - no way to flank them here - but any military units there are going to have to be sacrificed, the chance of evacuation by sea and not getting sunk while trying to reach safety is pretty slim.
Japan's problem is they are still going to have a huge population to try and control and a huge area to patrol. OTL the maximum Japanese occupied area of China was less than what they had here and it was a huge sponge for Japanese resources. Furthermore the Japanese are going to find that the cost of occupying this vast area, controlling this less than friendly population, and providing for infrastructure upkeep and improvement (no roads/RRs/airfields makes it hard for the military to do its job) will end up in China being on the red side of the ledger not the black. They would do well to read the tale of the tar baby, because that is what they have gotten in to.
Japan's problem is they are still going to have a huge population to try and control and a huge area to patrol. OTL the maximum Japanese occupied area of China was less than what they had here and it was a huge sponge for Japanese resources. Furthermore the Japanese are going to find that the cost of occupying this vast area, controlling this less than friendly population, and providing for infrastructure upkeep and improvement (no roads/RRs/airfields makes it hard for the military to do its job) will end up in China being on the red side of the ledger not the black. They would do well to read the tale of the tar baby, because that is what they have gotten in to.
Grant took office in '69 not '66. Wonder how long the Democrats will maintain their hold on the Presidency.