Well the world has had three wars in the space of a year. How long before tempers fly for a new one to erupt?

Russia and Turkey? or an early Battle Royale in the Balkans?
World War One starts in Hint:1915

That is more or less the point ITL where the wheels fly off and everything goes nuts. Even through there had been some fairly big butterflies to date, its that war that radically changes the balance of power and where this TL gets its name.

 
Ok I need some help with the Japanese. I need to know what they would re-name both Qingdao and Wiehaiwei to so they would start becoming Japanese.
 
So Adwa will not define a generation of military and politician; it will be just a western colonial victory as many others...this can mean some pretty interesting buttefly for Africa as OTL the italian defeat was a rally cry for african nationalist.
For Italy the con will be Crispi remaining in power for longer (but the victory afterglow will not last for very long, the italian population at large was more interest in internal matter in this period, even if the acquisition of more territory will calm, at least for sometime, some problem) as the man was a proto-duce...and with a terrible relationships with the King.
The pro are a much shorter and cheaper war and this will be a great boon for the italian treasury. This can have some serious consequence later, as the Milan revolt of 1898 (the biggest of the series of revolt of that year) that was suppressed with the use of artillery and caused by the great economic problem...including the doubling of the price of bread (OTL due to the Spanish-american war and the meager harvest...but ITTL only one factor will happen) was a important factor in the radicalization of a large part of the population (also due to the goverment awarding the general in charge of the operation).
King Umberto I killer, was motivated by how the Milan revolt was suppressed...and so there is a change that the assasination attempt will not happen.
 
The Treaties of 1898
The Treaties of 1898

The two wars in the Pacific, the Island War between the United States and Germany and the Sino Japanese War had upset the balance of power in the Pacific. It also caused the British to become increasingly worried that the balance of power their grandfathers had fought Napoleon for was coming part at the seams as new powers who were hungry and wanting their own empires. Even more since the United States was refusing to take part in the European Affairs. Japan was the Yellow Peril even through they had when to great lengths to modernize their nation and bring it up to European standards and even some culturally of the Europeans were brought to Japan in their efforts to modernize their nation. Then you had the Russians who were looking to expand at the cross of everyone else and had flex their muscles when they forced the Italians to stop their colonial campaign in East Africa.


For Germany their defeat in the Pacific War ended their hopes of a Pacific base Empire. There had been some fairly serious talk about buying the Philippines and their remaining Pacific colonies from the Spanish. With the loss their only colony in the Pacific, which was now American New Guinea and rights to Samoa it left them only with rights to Tonga Group as their only toe hold in the Pacific. The US hadn’t forced the Germans to give up their rights to the Tonga Group because the British also had rights there and didn’t want another headache because of the British. This left in a poor position and they knew it. However, like many they saw the Chinese get curbstompped by the Japanese.


Germany wanted a piece of Chinese pie to maintain some kind of projection ability in the Pacific. Even as efforts were underway to rebuild the Imperial Germany Navy after the massive losses in the Island War, Kaiser Wilhelm casted his eyes on China. So Germany turned to the British for help. This would lead to the Treaty of London (1898). Under the terms of this treaty, the Germans surrender their rights to the Tonga Group to the British. This would allow the British to set up Tonga as a colony soon thereafter. In return for surrendering their rights to Tonga to the British, the Germans would receive British support for a German “Hong Kong” somewhere along the Chinese coast. The location of this German Hong Kong was left blank as Shianshima[1] which the Germans did have their eyes on was now a Japanese City.


For the United States their victory in the Island War had left them asking many questions. Unlike in the Spanish-American War 20 years prior they had soundly defeated a great European Power as Spain had been weak and in a state of civil war. The support the British had given the Germans was unnerving through. This was the time of Pax Britannica after all. The US however, was a different beast than European Empires. Even through it was a late comer to the Empire Game it was only interested in a hand full of islands in the Pacific and maintaining a SOI in the Americas. With its victory in the Island War the only Island group it really wanted to add to its holdings was Hawaii. They didn’t understand why the British wanted to have a more active foreign policy that caused them to have to deal with Europeans. They didn’t want this. They were for good relations but maintaining a most isolationist polices that kept Europe at arm’s length for the most part.


Even through the Venezuelan Debt Crisis which had led to the Island War as Germany had when to collect the debt Venezuela own her, had to be answered. This would lead to the McKinley Corollary[2] to the Monroe Doctrine in 1896. The goal was to make sure that there would never be another event that could lead to another war. He would go on to use this corollary to act in the Dominican Republic which had defaulted on loans to Europe and on the brink of being a failed state. The US occupation of the Dominican Republic was worrying to the British. However, the fact the US was also performing military reforms from lessons the Island War was doubly worrying as they took this as a sign the US was getting ready for a major expansion phase of the US. And with the fact the US had made the switch from being a debtor nation to a creditor nation in 1897, it made the US look even more like a threat to the British in their eyes.


The British and Americans met in 1898 like the British did with the Germans in an effort to find a way to end the duel claims on the Samoan and Hawaiian Island Groups. The American team understood going in that a comprise was most likely going to be needed to get a deal done. Indeed they had been willing to give the part of New Guinea Island they took over from the Germans and divide the Samoan Island Group between itself and the British to be allowed to annex Hawaii. For the British they were hell bent to keep the US was annexing the Sandwich Islands as they knew Hawaii. The last thing they wanted was the US to have another good naval base in the Pacific.


After a few rounds of talks the US team saw that the British wouldn’t give up their rights to Hawaii. This angered the American team, but understood the game that was being played. After a few rounds of talks the two sides did come to an agreement. The British turned over all rights to the Samoan Island Group to the Americans who in return would turn over all rights to the Sandwich Island Group to the British.


The Treaty of Baltimore which outline the changes in the rights to what islands would mark the highpoint between Anglo-American relations for the foreseeable future as the US who had been open to good relations to the British before this shifted into viewing the British as a rival. For the British they achieved their goal of keeping Hawaii out of American hands, but failed to understand they had pushed too hard and the Americans who had been open to friendship were now out for something different.


[1] Qiandao, but in Japanese.

[2] Basically the OTL Roosevelt Corollary.
 
Tensions grow and the animosity over the British arrogance increases. With no Hawaii, the Kingdom there any well continue. With the British acting like its protector, what happens to the current US companies and citizens? Will they be allowed to continue and make money, or will the British influence the Hawaiian government to curtail their presence?
 
All of the Somoan islands? As for power projection, a naval base there would certainly cast the American shadow across the region...

Which makes me wonder why the hell the British went this way? Sandwich Islands turned over to the US would keep the US Pacific fleet closer to home, and away from British interests in the Asian-Pacific. Australia, Fiji, New Zealand...hell Hong Kong, are all much closer to Somoa than Hawaii.

I think the British hosed themselves.
 
Yeah the US offer would honestly had been better but the British viewed allowing the Americans to gain control of the Sandwich Islands as increasing their power projection even more than allowing them to keep the Samoan Group. They believed that the RN could take these islands should a war come, but they don't understand that they just killed any chances of a friendly US. The US wanted good relationships but not play an active role in European affairs which the British viewed as something they had to do since they had thrown down on two different European Empires. Basically both sides misunderstood the other and its going to radically change the course of history.

On the alt-AH boards of ITL, this is going to be one of those big what ifs asked.
 
Unequal Treaties of 1898
Chinese Treaty Ports of 1898

In the aftermath of the Sino Japanese War the Qing Empire looked very weak in the eyes of the world. The fact the world had widely believed that the Qing would defeat the Japanese only for the Japanese to wipe the floor with China was shocking. But they also smelled blood in the water. The age of empire building was still in full swing and with China almost everyone was looking to crave a piece off China. The question was who would be the first to move and force the Chinese to sign a treaty handing over control of a port to a foreign nation so they would gain a sphere of influence in China.


The Russians were the first to strike and carve off a piece of China. They had been for generations been looking for a warm water port that didn’t have a natural choke point. Port Arthur was such a port and was within striking distance. Even through it was at the end of some long logistical lines and thousands of kilometers from their industrial heart land, it was what they always wanted and they were going to get it. They wanted and when they learned that the Japanese might take it at the peace conference that would ended the Sino-Japanese War they let it be known that they would object to Japanese ownership of Port Arthur. This is what led the Japanese to shift their aims from the Liaodong Peninsula to the Shandong Peninsula and led to them annexing Shianshima and Ikaiei[1] at the end of their war with China.


With the Japanese having given up on the Liaodong Peninsula and shifting over to the Shandong Peninsula the Russians started to plan for a force hand over or the port. It really was their first step in their long term plan to annex Manchuria and added it to their growing empire. But the need to have a warm water port overrode the need to annex Manchuria at the moment. The Russian Pacific Fleet sailed into Port Arthur which still haven’t recovered from the Sino-Japanese War and at gun point started to move into the place. Had this been 1893, the Chinese would fought back far harder than they did. Yet by the winter of 1897-98 they barely had any fight left in them. The defeat at the hands of the Japanese had been humiliating and spark a deep debate within China about the future course they would take.


By March 1895, Port Arthur as the Russians called it had all but been taken over by the Russians. This sparked a crisis but the Russians threaten war against the Chinese if they didn’t agree to their terms. With the Russians eyeing a lot more than just Port Arthur and knowing this the Chinese agreed. This would lead to the first of many treaties signed in Peking in 1898. Under the terms of the Russian treaty the Russians were given a rent free lease at Port Arthur for the next 25 years. Russia believed at that time it would be able to find a reason to go to war against China before then that wouldn’t cause the British to jump on them. It was why they had when with only a 25 year lease instead of the more standard 99 years leases that were signed at this point in time.


By doing what the Russians did set off a massive land grab rush by almost all the great powers at first. Only the United States at the start of 1898 was oppose to diving China up into different sphere of influence. The US had started working to stop this but this would change as events in Baltimore made it clear that the British wouldn’t support their ideas their positions would change on the subject. Without another major power supporting them, the US knew their ideas would go nowhere. This sparked another debate within the halls of both the White House and Congress as what should the US do.


The British were the second to move. With the defeat of China at the hands of Japanese the British were worried about the defense of Hong Kong which they had annexed in the aftermath of the First Opium War. However they were also worried about the Russians who had just gained their long sought after warm water port, even if it was a leased port. Using their status as most favored nation within the Qing Empire, the British pushed through a treaty that achieved of all their aims. They would gain what would be known as the New Territories[2] for their Crown Colony of Hong Kong. This would be a 99 year lease of these territories, with the opinion to buy these territories in 1997 for a set price of 50,000 pounds adjusted for inflation.


Further north it was able to gain a lease on what would become known as Znifu Bay Concession or as the British called it Port Edwards[3]. This lease had more to do with the Russian lease of Port Arthur than the British wanting to build up the area. They wanted to remind the Russians that they controlled the seas and could shut down their port if they wanted. Unlike the New Territories, the British really had no plans to build up Port Edwards outside what was needed to host a fleet to keep the Russians in check. It was a case of remining the Russians, the British were the top dog. Unlike the New Territories which was a 99 year lease with an opinion to buy, Port Edwards was to be in place so long as the Russians were in control of Port Arthur.


The French also struck at around the same time. The French wanted their own Hong Kong. They were able to force the Chinese into signing over a 99 year lease with the opinion to buy in 1997 of Kouang-Tcheou-Wan[4]. This location of this port was strategically located on the Leizhou Peninsula and ease to defend. The French then placed control of their new port in China under the office of Governor of Indochina.


For the British they were treaty bound to help the Germans achieve a treaty port in China. After some hasty recon work on the part of the Germans, they selected Haizhou Bay to be their concession. Like the terms of other Europeans they gained a 99 year lease with the rights to buy the Haizhou Bay Concession[5] in 1997. The locals did fight the Germans fairly hard for the first few days after the Germans came to claim their concession, but between the newly formed Imperial German Marine Service[6] and the 28 cm shells of the three strong Brandenburg class Battleships the Germans were able to make their claim stick.


Italy also wanted to carve their piece of silver out China. This was more out of the prestige of having a leased port than for trade. With some help from the British they were able to get the Sanmen Bay Concession[7] for a 99 year lease with the opinion to buy outright in 1997. The Italians like the Germans had a major fight on their hands. They had sent two of their three Re Umberto Ironclad Battleships with a regiment of infantry to take control of the Sanmen Bay Concession. It took the Italians heavy use of their 13.5 inch British built guns on their ironclads and five days of heavy fighting to take control of the concession.


Finally there was the United States. At first the US opposed all of these treaty ports and was working on the idea to be able trade with all of China without having to deal with other nations SOIs. The Open Door Note as it was known when it was being drafted, however it would never be sent. As the British were making it clear they wouldn’t back the United States in this idea they allowed it to die on the table. After this a debate raged as what to do next. It became a case if you can’t beat them, join them. This caused the US to be the last great power to claim a treaty port. This came to be known as the Xinghua Bay Concession[8]. Like the Europeans they got a 99 year lease with the opinion to buy in 1997. Further like the Germans and Italians the Americans had some heavy fighting in enforcing their treaty rights to this concession when they landed to take control of it in December 1898. But with heavy naval artillery support and Marines on the ground they took control of their concession in three days.


[1] Weihaiwei, but it’s the new Japanese name.

[2] ITL the New Territories cover more land than OTL New Territories. Start just south of Bao’an to the hills just north of Shezhen, to just north of a Yantian. It also includes that small island that is a few miles to the east of the OTL New Territories.

[3] Ok this includes Taozi and Znifu Bays and the city of Yanti. They wanted Weihaiwei but that’s Japanese held now. Its land border goes about 10 miles inland from starting at Zhangdao to the end of Taozi Bay. It includes all those small islands right off the coast as well.

[4] OTL here.

[5] Start at Guanhe River and go north to Lanshan. This includes the Qinshan Island and Kaishan Island which are not that far from the coast. It includes the city of Lianyungang. It covers about ~600 km squared total territorial size wise, but don’t quote me on that as my math sucks.

[6] Ok to be the Seebataillon sounds like a standard infantry unit attached to the navy. So in the aftermath of the Island War Germany forms a proper Marine Corp.

[7] Ok you start at Yuanyu Islet and work your way north till you hit this little POS town of Jieqixiang. This is about flush for the most part but in some areas you go a few kilometers inland. It comes with all those little islands that are around it.

[8] Ok you start at this little POS town of Lingchuanzhen and go north till you hit Haikouzhen. This includes that mess of islands in this part of China. It doesn’t include the city of Putian. But it pushes close to the city limits of Putian.
 
So the US has their own port and this play a part if/when the Boxers decide to piss off everyone.

Italy got their port, but would Austria-Hungary try to join in on the gang bang in China or stay out of the orgy and complete their hosing down in the Balkans?

I will guess that the varies Empires will later try to recruit their Chinese into militias? Could a proxy fight using these Chinese aid in the collapse of the Qings?
 
Austria-Hungary isn't getting a port. They were never one for colonies.
OTL they got 150 Acres in Tianjin in 1901, though even Belgium had more

They did grab some uninhabitable arctic islands, and their consul in Hong Kong bought rights to North Borneo from the US consul to Brunei and owned it for 2 years (1878-1880), tried to sell it to A-H, Germany and Italy, ended up UK by default. The Hapsburgs also had a colony on the Nicobar Islands 1778-1783
 
I need a map for these Chinese concessions

One small problem, I'm no good with maps and couldn't do one to save my life. I pulled most of this information off the Google World Map. I can give you round about locations on these concessions, but for a map no, I can't do that one.

Port Arthur and the French ones are per-OTL.

The New Territories have pushed the border a bit farther north than OTL. It includes the city of Shezhen ITL.

Port Edwards the other British leased territory is on Shandong Peninsula near the town of Yanti in the Shandong Province.

The German concession is near the town of Lianyungang in the Jiangsu province.

The Italians its south of Ningbo in the Zhejiang province.

For the Americans its around about the towns of Putian and Fuzhou in the Fujian Province.

Hope that helps.
 
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