A New Balance
- Thread starter Jim Smitty
- Start date
Not for a while. Korea is still its own nation but clearly in the Japanese SOI after this war.
ITTL i doubt that the OTL Anglo-american Great Reapprochment happened, as between a more aggressive expansionist politics and the war with Germany (that the British quietly supported), London and Washington at the time will see each others as rival...expecially with the numerous clash of interest between the two during this period (Guyana border was only one argument).
On the other side UK and Germany can have a more fruitfull relations, expecially with the German navy greatly weakened...and this is no good for Portugal as there were a lot of British plan to divide the portughese african empire between them and the Germans even if London was extremely optmistic in her believe that other nations will accept it without somekind of compensation; plus any British-German reapprochment will make people in Paris being very apprensive.
HOw the US are developing by now? They will cool down or after beat two european powers they will go for the Japanese route and loudly proclame: I'M INVINCIBLE.
On the other side UK and Germany can have a more fruitfull relations, expecially with the German navy greatly weakened...and this is no good for Portugal as there were a lot of British plan to divide the portughese african empire between them and the Germans even if London was extremely optmistic in her believe that other nations will accept it without somekind of compensation; plus any British-German reapprochment will make people in Paris being very apprensive.
HOw the US are developing by now? They will cool down or after beat two european powers they will go for the Japanese route and loudly proclame: I'M INVINCIBLE.
The Great Rapprochement was starting to happen as the US was willing to have good relations with the British. The ground work for it was laid before the POD with the Treaty of Washington in 1871 and the US is still open to good relations with everyone in Europe, just don't ask them to pay an active part in the balance of power that is going on. They don't want those ties. That's where the British think the Americans are wrong. The fact the US knocked off Spain (In a state of civil war) and then force Germany to sue for terms doesn't sit well with the British. Something other than war in 1898 will cause the US to see the British as rivals and their primary foe. The British are still in their splendid isolation stage through.
This is Germany under Kaiser Wilhelm II, you honestly think he will allow this set back stop his plans for a navy? He will just use this as proof that the navy will need more funding. Now if the Reichstag buys that is another story through.
While you can always count on Kaiser Willy to make bonehead decision and put an entire shoes factory in his mounth; his pubblic declaration and the lost war will have caused some serious political fallout in Germany...so IMHO much of the funds will go to the army (a thing that will make the British very happy); nevertheless better never understimate the power of a bruised ego as i doubt that anyone in Berlin had took being beaten by upstair newcomers very well.
Regarding British splendid isolation, it was more or less like American isolationism...when the nation interest (real or perceived) were at stake, the nation was very interventionist.
I think that could go either way. The devastation of their navy might be the kick in the pants they need to get things going. "They beat us because they had a larger navy, so we need one just as large!"
This could actually lead to an early attempt at the Washington Naval Treaty to get all the "Greats" to limit their sea tonnage and put everyone on an equal playing field. If the USA and Germany are both in support of it, and the British are not, that could pull the former enemies together.
This could actually lead to an early attempt at the Washington Naval Treaty to get all the "Greats" to limit their sea tonnage and put everyone on an equal playing field. If the USA and Germany are both in support of it, and the British are not, that could pull the former enemies together.
No doubt the British are far more interventionist than the US is at this time. The US didn't want to fight Germany ITL in the island war. Only the Germans pushed so hard the US said more or less fuck off and Germany started that war.
As a person who was once going to be an American history major the US prior to the end of WWII really never wanted to tie itself to Europe. It took strong leaders in the after of WWII to finally get these ties in place as the American public simply wanted to go back to business as usual. I.e. no ties to Europe and a small defensive force. Only the leaders of the nation understood WWII had radically changed the world and the US had to take an active role in world affairs or let the communist from Moscow run rough shot over everyone.
Now look at ITL. The US ITL has been forced into two wars that it really didn't want to fight. Now granted it took territory in both, and its still trying to figure out what the fuck to do with that former German colony through. The US really only wants to focus on the Americas and the Pacific not play a leading role in the world like it could. The British are alarmed by the growth of the US, even more so since its funding its navy now. New Orleans really did a mind trip on the American public and they are willing to fund a small but modern navy at the moment, the army however is still largely a joke for a nation the size of the US. This is what allowed them to win the Island War, the fact the funded the navy. Even more so since the US is unwilling to take part in the balance of power that is going on in Europe. If the British were to leave well enough alone, the Americans would most likely focus on themselves and their AO that they give a fuck about they would stay out of European affairs and kept a small navy, well smaller than the British but enough for the defense of their nation. But by the British fucking around its going to piss the Americans off and only have a wide ranging effects in the coming world, even more so when WWI kicks off in 1915.
nice T/L. The experience of the Marines/Army in Samoa, and even in Cuba, should make the USA improve the armaments of the Army. Furthermore the failures of mobilization and the activation of militia/National Guard OTL led to the Root reforms of the early 1900s which reorganized the National Guard and laid the foundation for a reasonably functional reserve system. The USA can get by with a relatively small army (unless and until Canada/UK becomes an imminent threat) as long as it is well equipped with modern weapons from rifles to artillery, and has a guard/reserve system that allows them to expand relatively quickly with soldiers already with decent training. Attempting to expand rapidly with untrained volunteers didn't work in the ACW, and didn't in the OTL Spanish-American War, and assume didn't work too well in this Spanish-American War.
Can't wait to see what happens when the Baltimore crisis occurs, and when the Venezuela Crisis happens as well. No doubt the U.S. has a stronger navy ITTL especially after fighting to European empires. So if a Chilean-American War occurs the U.S. could definitely win and take Easter Island, further increasing their influence in the Pacific and probably making Britain a bit more scared of them.
The Baltimore Crisis has already came and when, the Chileans backed down. The Venezuela Crisis is currently playing out at moment if you mean the 1895 one. the 1902-03 hasn't happened yet.
Just caught up. Britain's actions continue to aggravate the tensions between the US and the UK. Japan has fought the war with China but tensions will grow. Russia may push for .more concessions, China may possibly modernize though itvis doubtful, and the UK will continue get its money with trade and financing. Will Germany try to involved in the Far East? Any news on how France is handling developments?
Italo-Ethiopian War of 1894-95
Italo-Ethiopian War of 1894-95
Italy like the United States and Germany who would go to war later in the year in a year that saw the start of three different wars was a late comer to the empire game. The Italians had only united their nation in 1861, and had only gained their capital nine years later in a lightly fought battle with the pope and the troops of the Papal States. Yet instead of a new day on the Italian Peninsula there were many problems left over from the unification of their nation which was causing a flood of people to leave Italy for the United States. Rome was looking for something to unite the people, make it clear Italy was a great power, and take the people’s mind of the piss poor state of their nation. Many in Rome viewed a colonial war as such an event that could keep Italians from flooring out of their nation for the greener pastures the United States offered, but also as proof Italy was a great power.
For reasons known only to the Italians[1], instead of striking at Libya which was only a short distance from their nation and defending by the sick man of Europe, they wanted this war in East Africa. The British who were trying to offset French influence in the area supported and even encouraged the Italians to build an empire in East Africa. It allowed the Italians to have their great power status which London understood the Italians wanted but it also allowed the British to cut off Italy from its empire if it got too uppity. In during the 1880s the Italians set up to colonies in East Africa. The first being Eritrea, the second being Italian Somaliland.
Italy also set up a treaty with Ethiopia that turned the African nation in Italian Protectorate as the Italians read the treaty. However, Menelik II didn’t read the treaty that way. Then again he signed the treaty in both Italian and Amharic. Menelik signed both treaties both could only read Amharic. In a moment like George Washington found himself in that started the French and Indian War or Seven Years War depending on where you lived, Menelik basically all but started a war because he signed a treaty in a language he didn’t understand. The only two nations that refused to play by the treaty as the Italians understood it was the Ottomans who were claiming that it was their territory and Russia. Russia didn’t want to see an Orthodox nation being placed under the jack boot of the Catholic Church.
Tensions between Rome and Addis Ababa worsen with every passing month. Italy started building up forces in Eritrea to crush the unruly Menelik and to gain total control of Eritrea. Finally in the summer of 1893, Menelik tore up the treaty he had signed with the Italians in the mid 1880s. Italy started pushing back even harder against Menelik and got ready for war. At the same time the Italians decided to remove General Oreste Baratieri from his position in Eritrea before any war started. Baratieri was a political hack who may have been good at unrulily mob control, but the leaders in Rome were smart enough to understand that Ethiopia wasn’t an unrulily mob and was beyond Baratieri’s skills. They sent Antonio Baldissera who through had been born and trained in the Austrian Army before becoming an Italian National in the after 1866, and was a far more skill general.
Baldissera started the war on July 5th 1894. The Ethiopians knew this was coming and had mobilized a large force of over 200,000 men to face against the 21,000 men under the command of Baldissera. The only problem was the Ethiopian force wasn’t totally armed with firearms. Only just about half the force that Menelik brought together was armed with firearms of one kind or other. The rest was armed with spears or other blunt edge weapons. Menelik knew his best chance was to stop Italy was through force of numbers and support from Russia. Once the Italians had crossed into Ethiopia Menelik sent a team to St. Petersburg and ask for the support from their Orthodox brothers.
Over next few months there were only minor battles between Baldissera and Menelik who were feeling each other out. Menelik was still looking for a way out that was peaceful and allow him to maintain control of his nation. Yet a chance in early November gave Baldissera a chance to badly cripple Menelik and his army. This led to the Battle of Mek’ele. Where both sides brought almost their whole armies into play at this one battle, leading to the largest battle in Africa at the time when Mek’ele happened on November 4th.
At Mek’ele Baldissera had two columns that were able to perform a fairly well timed pincer movement against Menelik’s force. Over the next seven hours the two sides when at it. Menelik who came forward to see how the battle was going on saw to his horror the massive death and order his army to withdraw south. Baldissera’s own force was simply too exhausted to give chase and needed to regroup as well. Baldissera suffered just over 2,000 total casualties at Mek’ele. Whereas Menelik suffered just over 20,000 total casualties and loss of 19 artillery pieces.
Mek’ele was the biggest battle fought in Africa of all times at this time by total number of troops at the battle. Even against the battles in the Island War and Sino-Japanese War, Mek’ele was bigger than anything in either of those wars. The death toll also took many by surprise. For Rome it gave them pause in wondering if taking all of Ethiopia was worth the trouble as Menelik still hadn’t come to sue for terms. The Russians also started to put pressure on the Italians to end this war or they would enter the war and end it for them as news reached them in December.
The Italians played a strong front but it was decided to end the war as international finances were being strained by the fact three different wars were being fought in the winter of 1894-95. And the Italians knew their finances could bite them in the ass. This would lead to the Treaty of Asmara that was signed on January 11th 1895. Menelik ceded control of the Tigre’ Region, Ogaden Region, along with Aswi Rasu, Kilbert Rasu, Fantena Rasu, to the Italians. Ethiopia granted Italy most favored nation status. But the most important part of the treaty was the fact the Italians was recognizing the Ethiopians as their own independent nation.
[1] I’m at a lost why the Italians thought the horn of Africa was such a great place for an colonial empire when Libya was so close and damn near totally unpopulated. Anyone care to answer this?
Italy like the United States and Germany who would go to war later in the year in a year that saw the start of three different wars was a late comer to the empire game. The Italians had only united their nation in 1861, and had only gained their capital nine years later in a lightly fought battle with the pope and the troops of the Papal States. Yet instead of a new day on the Italian Peninsula there were many problems left over from the unification of their nation which was causing a flood of people to leave Italy for the United States. Rome was looking for something to unite the people, make it clear Italy was a great power, and take the people’s mind of the piss poor state of their nation. Many in Rome viewed a colonial war as such an event that could keep Italians from flooring out of their nation for the greener pastures the United States offered, but also as proof Italy was a great power.
For reasons known only to the Italians[1], instead of striking at Libya which was only a short distance from their nation and defending by the sick man of Europe, they wanted this war in East Africa. The British who were trying to offset French influence in the area supported and even encouraged the Italians to build an empire in East Africa. It allowed the Italians to have their great power status which London understood the Italians wanted but it also allowed the British to cut off Italy from its empire if it got too uppity. In during the 1880s the Italians set up to colonies in East Africa. The first being Eritrea, the second being Italian Somaliland.
Italy also set up a treaty with Ethiopia that turned the African nation in Italian Protectorate as the Italians read the treaty. However, Menelik II didn’t read the treaty that way. Then again he signed the treaty in both Italian and Amharic. Menelik signed both treaties both could only read Amharic. In a moment like George Washington found himself in that started the French and Indian War or Seven Years War depending on where you lived, Menelik basically all but started a war because he signed a treaty in a language he didn’t understand. The only two nations that refused to play by the treaty as the Italians understood it was the Ottomans who were claiming that it was their territory and Russia. Russia didn’t want to see an Orthodox nation being placed under the jack boot of the Catholic Church.
Tensions between Rome and Addis Ababa worsen with every passing month. Italy started building up forces in Eritrea to crush the unruly Menelik and to gain total control of Eritrea. Finally in the summer of 1893, Menelik tore up the treaty he had signed with the Italians in the mid 1880s. Italy started pushing back even harder against Menelik and got ready for war. At the same time the Italians decided to remove General Oreste Baratieri from his position in Eritrea before any war started. Baratieri was a political hack who may have been good at unrulily mob control, but the leaders in Rome were smart enough to understand that Ethiopia wasn’t an unrulily mob and was beyond Baratieri’s skills. They sent Antonio Baldissera who through had been born and trained in the Austrian Army before becoming an Italian National in the after 1866, and was a far more skill general.
Baldissera started the war on July 5th 1894. The Ethiopians knew this was coming and had mobilized a large force of over 200,000 men to face against the 21,000 men under the command of Baldissera. The only problem was the Ethiopian force wasn’t totally armed with firearms. Only just about half the force that Menelik brought together was armed with firearms of one kind or other. The rest was armed with spears or other blunt edge weapons. Menelik knew his best chance was to stop Italy was through force of numbers and support from Russia. Once the Italians had crossed into Ethiopia Menelik sent a team to St. Petersburg and ask for the support from their Orthodox brothers.
Over next few months there were only minor battles between Baldissera and Menelik who were feeling each other out. Menelik was still looking for a way out that was peaceful and allow him to maintain control of his nation. Yet a chance in early November gave Baldissera a chance to badly cripple Menelik and his army. This led to the Battle of Mek’ele. Where both sides brought almost their whole armies into play at this one battle, leading to the largest battle in Africa at the time when Mek’ele happened on November 4th.
At Mek’ele Baldissera had two columns that were able to perform a fairly well timed pincer movement against Menelik’s force. Over the next seven hours the two sides when at it. Menelik who came forward to see how the battle was going on saw to his horror the massive death and order his army to withdraw south. Baldissera’s own force was simply too exhausted to give chase and needed to regroup as well. Baldissera suffered just over 2,000 total casualties at Mek’ele. Whereas Menelik suffered just over 20,000 total casualties and loss of 19 artillery pieces.
Mek’ele was the biggest battle fought in Africa of all times at this time by total number of troops at the battle. Even against the battles in the Island War and Sino-Japanese War, Mek’ele was bigger than anything in either of those wars. The death toll also took many by surprise. For Rome it gave them pause in wondering if taking all of Ethiopia was worth the trouble as Menelik still hadn’t come to sue for terms. The Russians also started to put pressure on the Italians to end this war or they would enter the war and end it for them as news reached them in December.
The Italians played a strong front but it was decided to end the war as international finances were being strained by the fact three different wars were being fought in the winter of 1894-95. And the Italians knew their finances could bite them in the ass. This would lead to the Treaty of Asmara that was signed on January 11th 1895. Menelik ceded control of the Tigre’ Region, Ogaden Region, along with Aswi Rasu, Kilbert Rasu, Fantena Rasu, to the Italians. Ethiopia granted Italy most favored nation status. But the most important part of the treaty was the fact the Italians was recognizing the Ethiopians as their own independent nation.
[1] I’m at a lost why the Italians thought the horn of Africa was such a great place for an colonial empire when Libya was so close and damn near totally unpopulated. Anyone care to answer this?
It goes back to the Suez Canal.
Egypt was in the French Sphere until 1882 when the British began occupation. A major point of French foreign policy (until 1904) was to leverage the British out of Egypt and and reassert French control. To that end they established the colony of French Somaliland in 1883 which gave them a naval base in the Horn of Africa that could interdict trade. They hoped this would make the Canal less appealing to the Brits and force them out.
In 1884, a treaty signed between the Brits, French and Ethiopia allowed the Ethiopians to occupy parts of Eritrea (a region of land just north of French Somaliland) so their goods could move more freely. But the British never liked this arrangement as they could see what the French were trying to do. With the Egyptians basically forced out of the Eritrea by the treaty, that gave too much control to the French over the Red Sea. But the British also didn't want the financial burden of controlling the territory themselves (or the headache of not accidentally starting a Anglo-French War by doing so). So they looked for a third power to help them.
Enter Italy.
After France made Tunis into a French Protectorate in 1881, there was a surge of anti-French emotions in Italy because to them that was their backyard. Italian foreign policy had turned VERY anti-French as a result. So the British "encouraged" the Italians to occupy the Eritrea themselves, which would make sure that French domination of the Red Sea was broken. In 1882 Italy had joined the Triple Alliance (Austria-Germany-Italy) against France, which ensured that it would take a lot to provoke the French Empire into a retaliation.
In 1885 Italian troops landed in Eritrea. The Italian government was more than happy to join the Imperial game as it distracted their people from what was happening in post "Risorgimento" Italy. The unification of Italy in the 60s was supposed to usher in an age of Italian greatness, but instead of wealth and glory most people were still living in poverty. So hearing about Italian (embellished) greatness abroad in the papers rose peoples spirits.
In 1889, after a series of wars, Shewa ruler Menelik II declared himself Emperor of Ethiopia (or Abyssinia, as it was called in Europe at the time). Less than a month later he signed a treaty with the Italians that gave them control over all of Eritrea and the Red Sea coast down to Northeast Ethiopia. Except, as you covered above, the treaties in Italian and Amhara weren't the same. The Amhara copy gave them lots of local autonomy, however the Italian version basically turned all of Ethiopia into a protectorate.
TLDR: Because the British wanted to protect their Suez Canal investment, they got the Italians to do some shit.
Basically all this, plus the British need help against the Madihist revolt (the italian army was the first western army to beat the Mahdi, not only repelling the incursion on Eritrea but occupy Kassala) and enlisting the italian, eager to get in the imperial game was very easy (better consider that one of the reason they back up or at least turn a blind eye on France occupy Tunisia was that they know this will create a big rift between Paris and Rome and an alliance of the two nations, plus Spain, was a very big no no for London has it will mean that the western Mediterrean in case of war will be closed).
Libya not being strongly pursued than after the debacle of Adwa, was much due to the fact that the other big powers don't desire mess too much with the Ottoman as they had their own interest and plan for them; Rome needed almost 10 years of diplomatic work to get the ok for the invasion of Libya (and many thought/preferred that the intention was just to get the same deal of Bosnia and Tunisia not annexation...but understimated how Adwa and Austria annexation of Bosnia wounded the national pride), for this reason supported France in the two morroco crisis among other things.