A New Balance

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sloreck

I can't see the USA giving up Canada, Hawaii, Bermuda, or whatever islands it has taken in the Caribbean although they might give some of the latter back if they were demilitarized (no fixed bases or fortifications). Likewise let the UK keep the Bahamas but no fortifications. Naturally what the US lost in the Pacific gets returned. The population of Canada is 7-8 million of which 2 million were in Quebec. If the USA is smart they will let Quebec become independent subject to some rules (no military alliances, maybe limits on the military) which costs them nothing. This leaves 5 million or so "English" Canadians. I'm pretty sure that Australia and New Zealand would welcome many of these, as well as South Africa - for those that can't tolerate being part of the USA. The USA would be smart to offer passage, and even facilitate purchase of property for those who want to leave - in the long run, and probably in the short run it would be way cheaper than having to have a harsh occupation.

The reality is that the bulk of the population of Canada, the industry, and a good deal of the valuable agricultural land is relatively close to the US border, and the USA is going to want to push any rump Canada well away from the border. If you do that, what's left is not sustainable. So...
 
World War One, Middle East
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    • Jim Smitty

    Jim Smitty

    The Middle East was a generally forgotten theater of the war that was fought between the Ottomans and British with the ANZAC supporting. The biggest threat posed to the British was the threat to the Suez Canal that the Ottomans posed. If they lost the canal they would be forced to take a long way around of Africa to their crown jewel of the empire. Given all the problems this would give them even more so since the US has entered the war this couldn’t be allowed to happen. Even through some of the ANZAC forces had to be withdrawn to defend their homeland the British weren’t about to allow that stop them.


    During the fall of 1916 they launch duel offensives, one out Egypt the other out of Kuwait. This was just as the Italians were switching sides in the war. Yet that didn’t stop either offensive. The British wanted to make gains here and the remove all threats to the canal. The Ottomans for their part just didn’t have the strength in the area to stop the British. There best units were in Turkey proper to defend against either a British or Russian landing in the area.


    Unlike in Europe or North American the Middle East allowed for further military operations as it was far warmer here than in those fronts. It also far heavier use of British Indian Army units as more of the ANZAC forces were withdrawn to the SW Pacific. Against the Ottomans the BIA proved to be effective even if they were under gunned in terms of artillery. Some units were using Ordnance BL 12 pounder 7 cwt guns that were obsolete before the turn of the century. There are even rumors of one Indian Regiment using RML 9 pounder guns that had been found in storage and returned to service in the war as the artillery shortage was bad within the British Indian Army.


    During the winter of 1916/17 the Ottomans were falling back as their troops couldn’t stand up to the British here. It was much the same during the spring of 1917. Then as it was becoming clear that the British nor Russians could mount an invasion of Turkey herself, the Ottomans started to shift their best troops into the area. The front stabilized as the Ottomans offensive efforts failed but the British offensives also failed.


    Following Russia bowing out of the war the Ottomans shifted more troops to the Middle East to try and reserve British gains. They did retake Baghdad but they were also suffering from logistical issues of supporting this number of troops in this part of the empire. The British were also by the fall and winter of 1917 suffering from their own logistical headaches and pulled back in some areas to shore up their logistics. The Ottomans were during the winter of 1917/18 prepping for an offensive to retake the part of the empire that had been overran, but the British request for a cease fire brought these plans to an end.
     
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    • NHBL

    NHBL

    This is a very interesting timeline and war! One side effect that seems to me quite possible:
    The USA has had some bloodbaths invading Caribbean islands. Might this get the Marines to start seriously thinking about how to assault a beach? OTL's Great War had Gallipolli, but didn't have a steady stream of contested beach assaults.

    The horse trading at the peace conference should be interesting...
    The USA might propose, at some point, a peace based on the current status quo in the Americas and Pacific. That favors the USA significantly.

    Regarding moving Canadians elsewhere--this sort of thing was considered par for the course at the time, even forced relocation. Expensive, but normal.

    If Canada wants a lot if its occupied land back, they'll need to offer up something good, like total separation from the British empire. This is going to be messy!
     

    sloreck

    There are some bits of Canada the USA will want no matter what. This leads to a question of viability of the remnant, and you know there would be revanchism - the equivalent of the statutes representing Alsace & Lorraine being draped in black in Paris between 1871 and the end of WWI OTL. The USA has a huge border with Canada, and much of it totally flat with no natural barrier. I just can't see the USA tolerating an independent Canada as a potential threat. A peace where Canada continues in prewar borders (minus minor adjustments at most) even if it is disarmed and severed from the British Empire won't happen. This would mean the USA constantly inspecting in Canada and also having the will to stomp on them for any transgressions. A Versailles type treaty only works as long as you strictly enforce it - and how long would that last.

    In the Pacific why should the USA give up what the British et al occupied - winners get to keep things losers do not. Now to the extent some of these bits were taken/occupied by the Japanese this could be interesting. Is Japan willing to go one on one with the USA to keep any spoils, or even one on two with the Germans involved for any bits of theirs the Japanese seized (like Tsingtao)? Are the US (and Germany) willing to do what it takes to force Japan to cough up occupied territory? OTL Japan was less capable of dealing with the USA one on one at the time of WWI than WWII - more dependent on foreign military goods, less industrialized - so they may have to grit their teeth and retreat, to fight again another day. Note that the crazy Bushido version of OTL WWII did not become prominent until the 1920s.
     
    Treaty of New York
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    • Jim Smitty

    Jim Smitty

    Treaty of New York


    The Treaty of New York is the name giving to all of the treaties that came out of the Peace Summit held in New York City in the aftermath of the Great War. This is summary of major things that happened.


    I Territorial Changes

    IA United States of America

    1) Maine goes to the Maximum American border claim prior the Webster-Ashburton Treaty.

    2) Minnesota goes to maximum American border claims prior the Webster-Ashburton Treaty.

    3) America annexes from the Dominion of Canada British Colombia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Yukon, Northwest Territories, the majority of the islands in the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River[1], and the town of Saint-Regis formally of Quebec.

    4) America annexes from the Dominion of Newfoundland the island of Newfoundland.

    5) From the Third Republic of France the United States annexes Clipperton Island.

    6) From the Russian Republic[2] the US annexes Wrangel Island, Big Diomede Island, and Commander Island.

    7) From the British Empire Hawaii, Bermuda, Jamaica, Cayman Islands, The Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands, British Windward Islands, British Leeward Islands save for the island Montserrat which will be returned to the British Empire.

    8) The US buys Greenland and Iceland from the Kingdom of Denmark.

    IB Brazil

    1) From the French Republic Brazil annexes French Guiana.

    2) From the British Empire Brazil annexes British Guiana East of the Essequibo River.

    IC Germany

    1) From the Third Republic of France the German Empire annexes the towns of Briey, Longwy, and Belfort along with other border adjustments[3].

    2) From the Russian Republic Germany annexes a strip of Vistula Land.[4]

    3) The German Empire annexes Luxembourg.

    4) The German Empire takes overs the French Colonies of French Polynesia, Wallis and Futuna, Dahomey, Ubangi-Shari, and Guangzhouwan.

    5) The German Empire takes over the British Colonies of Zanzibar Archipelago, Walvis Bay, the Penguin Islands, and the Bechuanaland Protectorate.

    ID Austria-Hungary

    1) From the Italian Kingdom the Austro-Hungarian Empire annexes Veneto.

    2) There are to be border adjustments between the borders of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the Kingdom of Serbia.

    IE Italy

    1) From the Third Republic of France Italy annexes Nice and Savoy.

    2) Italy takes over the Kufra District formally of British Egypt in the Colonial System.

    3) Italy takes over the Aouzou Strip and other border adjustments from areas around Italian Libya[5].

    4) Italy takes full ownership of Italian Libya.

    IF Belgium

    1) Belgium takes control of the French Congo formally of the French Colonial Empire.

    IG The Netherlands

    1) Netherlands buys from the United States the Collectivity of Saint Martin.

    IH The Imperial Federation of Australia and New Zealand

    1) The Imperial Federation buys the northern half of Papua from the United States of America.

    IJ The Japanese Empire

    1) Japan annexes Northern Sakhalin from the United States of America.

    2) Japan annexes the Sanmen Bay Colony[6] from the German Empire.

    IK The Ottoman Empire

    1) The Ottoman Empire annexes from the Russian Empire Kars and Batum.

    2) Greece returns control of the Aegean Sea Islands to the Ottoman Empire.

    3) Bulgaria returns control of East Thrace[7] to the Ottoman Empire.

    IL The British Empire

    1) The British takes Palestine, Transjordan, and Southern Mesopotamia[8] and turn them into colonies within their Empire.

    2) The British gain the colony formally known as Italian Somaliland[9] from the German Empire.

    IM Romania

    1) Romania annexes from the Russian Republic Bessarabia.

    IN Greece

    1) Greece annexes all the land west of the River Vardar till you reach the foothills of Sar Mountains formally held by the Kingdom of Serbia[10]

    2) Greece annexes southern Albania[11].

    IO Bulgaria

    1) Bulgaria annexes all lands east of the River Vardar north to the border of the Kingdom of Serbia[12].

    IP Sweden

    1) Sweden annexes from the Russian Republic Aland Islands along with border adjustments.

    IQ Guatemala

    1) Guatemala buys from the United States British Honduras.

    IR Venezuela

    1) Venezuela buys from the Empire of Brazil British Guiana west of the Essequibo River.


    II Newly Formed Nations

    IIA Republic of Quebec

    1) The Province of Quebec formally of Dominion of Canada is granted independence and is granted diplomatic recognition by all nations at New York Summit. This is minus lands annexed by the United States.

    2) The Republic of Quebec also annexes from the Third Republic of France Saint-Pierre and Miquelon, Guadeloupe, Martinique, and Saint Barts.

    3) From the Dominion of Newfoundland Quebec annexes Labrador.

    IIB Maritime Federation

    1) The Maritime Federation is made up of New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, and Nova Scotia formally of the Dominion of Canada. This is minus lands annexed by the United States.

    2) The Maritime Federation is granted independence and is granted diplomatic recognition by all nations at the New York Summit.

    IIC Kingdom of Poland

    1) The Kingdom of Poland made areas of Vistula Land not annexed by the German Empire to where the Second Partition of Poland border with Russia was, is granted independence and further is granted diplomatic recognition by all nations at the New York Summit.

    2) The Monarch of the Kingdom of Poland Prince Leopold of Bavaria of the House of Wittelsbach. Prince Leopold is raised to the title of King.

    IID Grand Duchy of the Baltic

    1) The Grand Duchy of the Baltic is made up of Estonia and Latvia. The Grand Duchy of the Baltic is granted independence and further is granted diplomatic recognition by all nations at the New York Summit.

    2) The monarch for the Grand Duchy is Herzog Adolf von Friedrich of the House of Mecklenburg which is title being raised to Großherzog.

    IIE Duchy of Lithuania

    1) The Duchy of Lithuania[13] is granted independence and further is granted diplomatic recognition by all nations at the New York Summit.

    2) The monarch for the Duchy of Lithuania is Wolrad, Prince of Schaumburg-Lippe.

    IIF Kingdom of Finland

    1) The Kingdom of Finland[14] is granted independence and further is granted diplomatic recognition by all nations at the New York Summit.

    2) The monarch of the Kingdom of Finland is Prince Frederick Charles of Hesse.


    III Occupied Territory

    The Province of Ontario shall remained occupied by the United States till it can be agreed what her final status shall be.


    IV Return of Territory

    All territory not covered in sections I, II, or III is returned to its pre-war owners. Nations who are occupying these lands will take all steps to make sure proper law and order is maintained in these areas till they are returned to their pre-war owners.


    V Financial Matters

    VA The United States of America

    1) The United States pays to the Kingdom of Denmark 30 million dollars in gold coins for the payment of Greenland and Iceland.

    2) The Imperial Federation of Australia and New Zealand pays the United States 30 Million Pounds for Northern Papua.

    3) The Netherlands pays the United States 6 million dollars for the Collectivity of Saint Martin.

    4) Guatemala pays the United States 250,000 dollars to be paid out over five years for British Honduras.

    VB The German Empire

    1) The French Republic will pay the German Empire an indemnity 40 Billion Francs to be paid out over the next 30 years.

    2) All German debt held by both the French and Russian Republics is forgiven.

    VC Austria-Hungary

    1) The Italian Kingdom will pay to the Austro-Hungarian Empire an indemnity 5 Billion Lire to be paid over a 15 year period.

    2) All Austro-Hungarian Debt held by the Italian Kingdom, the French Republic, and Russian Republic is to be forgiven.

    VD Miscellaneous

    1) Venezuela pays to the Empire of Brazil 2.5 million Real for West British Guiana.

    2) Bonds issued by the Dominions of Canada and Newfoundland are now void.


    VI Disarmament and Return of POWs

    1) The French Republic must destroy all border fortifications with the German Empire and Kingdom of Belgium to a depth of 100 kilometers from the border.

    2) The British Empire may not build any fortifications on the island of Montserrat. Nor may they station any units of the British Army or Royal Navy on the island.

    3) Members of I Canadian Corp will not be allowed to return to their homes unless they swear allegiance to the United States of America, The Republic of Quebec, or the Maritime Federation.

    4) Canadian Prisoners of War held by the United States of America will not be allowed to return to their homes unless they swear allegiance to the United States of America, the Republic of Quebec, or the Maritime Federation. [15]

    5) Members of I Canadian Corp or Canadian POWs who do not swear allegiance to one of the three nations outlined in the second and third points of this section will be given “fair market” value for all property.[16]

    6) All other POWs will be return as soon as practical for all nations.


    VII Miscellaneous

    1) The Southern Philippines Republic[17] is granted diplomatic recognition by nations at the New York Summit.

    2) The Republic of Rio Grande is granted diplomatic recognition by all nations at the New York Summit.

    3) The United States gain sole rights to build a canal in both Panama and Nicaragua and take over the defunct French in Panama.

    4) The Italian Kingdom has to accept any and all “Immigrates” from the Austro-Hungarian Empire till 1925 without limits[18].

    5) The British releases King Baudouin and his family.

    6) The British remove all tariffs to the Kingdom of Belgium for the next 25 years.

    7) The German Empire withdraws diplomatic recognition from the Republic of Transvaal.


    [1] I really don’t feel like naming all those islands as the St. Lawrence is known as Thousand Islands for a damn good reason.

    [2] When Russia bowed out it was a Republic.

    [3] I’m not detailing all of the border adjustments, but these are to the favor of the people doing the annexing.

    [4] Basically OTL Polish Border Strip with some slight changes.

    [5] Italian Libya got OTL borders plus the Aouzou Strip.

    [6] This is that former Italian Treaty Port.

    [7] OTL European Turkey.

    [8] Baghdad is still controlled by the Ottomans. Karbala is now a border city with it being controlled by the British, semi-natural border here.

    [9] This includes Ogaden, which the Italians won in 1895, but they gave the colony over to Germany when they switch sides then the Germans trade it to the British.

    [10] OTL Border of Serbia, Kosovo, and Macedonia.

    [11] Basically running from the city of Vlore to Lake Prespa. Vlore is under Greek control.

    [12] OTL Border of Serbia, Kosovo, and Macedonia.

    [13] They have control of Vilnius.

    [14] Pre-Winter War borders minus what the Swedes annexed.

    [15] Outside those who are Quebecois very few do this. Quebecois do this in mass numbers. Most in up in Australia/New Zealand.

    [16] The US screws them over generally giving 60 cents to the dollar.

    [17] During the Spanish Civil War the Southern Philippines, i.e. what Japan doesn’t control broke away from Spain. Its believed that Communist Spain is about to mount an effort to retake them, so this is there way of saying back off.

    [18] They don’t want the Italians in their nation anymore and they are going to be removed at the point of the gun.
     
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    • Jim Smitty

    Jim Smitty

    VoidStalker said:
    So did the ottoman bow out early? I don't see why they would lose land if they were on the winning side from the start, as opposed to Italy which switched sides
    Click to expand...
    No the Ottoman didn't bow out early but their performance in this war was fairly shitty. The only way they were going retake what was lost to the British was with a massive reinforcement of troops from Germany or Austria-Hungary and that wasn't happening and everyone knew it. So the British were allowed to keep those areas. Most of the German Army is tied down in Poland/Baltic/and Occupied France at the moment and Austria-Hungary is tied down in occupied Italy and Serbia. And most of the lands in the colonies that the Italians got is just worthless desert in the 1910s. They also traded Vento to the Austro Hungarians which was really worth something for only Nice and Savoy which is worth something but it doesn't make up for the value of what was lost.

    The main thing through the Ottomans did make some gains at the cost of Russia plus they got some land back from Bulgaria and Greece. Plus in 1920 they get an alliance with Germany. I have plans for the Ottomans....
     

    VoidStalker

    Cool though they will see a need to reform their forces after this. Also for one of these summary posts can you do one for any naval clashes and major land battles?
     
    Jim Smitty

    Jim Smitty

    Armstrong's Footprint said:
    Why did Japan not have to pay the US anything for Sakhalin?
    Click to expand...
    Japan held American territories in 1918. It was some horse trading as Japan wanted something to so for its efforts and the US knew that beforehand. Its why they got Northern Sakhalin from the Russians. They didn't want it, but Japan did.

    cortz#9 said:
    I take it there will be no League of Nations or some other equivalent ITTL?
    Click to expand...
    Tried and failed.
     
    Russian Civil War
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    • Jim Smitty

    Jim Smitty

    As the nations of Europe and the Americas were talking peace at New York the fires of revolution were burning in a number of places across the world. Spain well along its way to becoming the first communist nation in the world as they were gaining on Nationalist forces in European Spain and had already taking over the Spanish African colonies and were believed to be readying themselves to retake the Southern Philippines. When Russia exited the war they were in a fragile agreement between the Provisional Government and the Petrograd Soviet. Tsar Nicholas II had already been overthrown during the November Revolution. But both the Provisional Government and the Petrograd Soviet had radically different ideas on how to go forward and governor Russia.


    With the signing of the Treaty of Konigsberg Russia exited the war. For Russia the war was nothing but a humiliation. They had lost vast tracks of European territories along with some in Central Asia and the Pacific. With the latter territories being almost worthless at the time. However the terms of the treaty were nothing but a humiliation to Russia and given the fact trade wasn’t restarting except for a hard cash only basic didn’t help matters. This did not help and the chance of a major famine in Russia was creeping up day by day. Many of the wealthy nobles from the old Russian Empire were fleeing Russia as fast as they could and taking as much as their wealth with them as they were leaving by any means possible. This was reducing Russia’s ability to pay for food which they badly needed to stay off famine as reports of cannibalism were starting to become more and more common in Central Asia and Serbia as food was becoming harder and harder to come by.


    Both sides agree to they needed to demobilize the Imperial Russian Army which they had taken over following the down fall of the Imperial Government. What neither side could agree through on who should be running the demobilized army. The Provisional Government wanted to keep the former Tsarist officers in charge till they could train their own forces to replace the former Tsarist. As for the Petrograd Soviet they wanted their own Red Guard officers to take over. Things came to a head when a former Tsarist naval officer in the reformed Russian Republic Navy on still unfinished Colossus battleship Poltava tried to force the crew of the Poltava meat that was maggot infested. This was primary because there was nothing else to eat. The crew munity and killed the bulk of their officers. The munity soon spread throughout the remaining ships of the Baltic Fleet then quickly it jumped by Black Sea Fleet.


    It was at the same time that Vladimir Ilyich Ulyanov better known by his alias Lenin was returning to Petrograd to take over the Petrograd Soviet. It was his speech on January 19 1918 that is generally marked as the start of the Russian Civil War. It was only days later that you were start to see break away nations in the Ukraine, Caucasus, and Central Asia as Russia was breaking up along ethnic fault lines. Then started a free for all in terms of everything one trying to claim power for themselves as various factions are started killing each other for power.


    There were two main factions. The first was the Bolsheviks and the Red Army with Lenin leading it. Then there was the White Faction. Unlike the Bolsheviks and Red Faction the White Faction didn’t have a clear leader in charge of it. There was simply too many factions within the White Faction to allow for a single leader. It was more lets take care of the Bolsheviks then we can deal with our differences then. Some within the White Faction wanted to see the return of the Tsars, others wanted to see an American type republic, others wanted to see different forms of socialism than what the Bolsheviks wanted to see.


    The White Faction had the support of the rest of the world as none of the world wanted to see another communist nation as happened in Spain which is what the Bolsheviks wanted. They started to open up trade with the White Faction but many nations still wanted some form of payment as the ruble was worthless and many saw the factions within the White Faction and wonder if it could hold together. All this did was drain the Whites of their limited hard money reserves and forced the whites to pay their soldiers with what amounted IOUs.


    For the Red Army they were no army of mercy. Then again the White Army wasn’t much better. War crimes were common on both sides. The two sides were brutal in their enforcement up discipline in their armies. The Red Army after some early set backs took to using former Tsarist officers as well. Some did so because they believed in the cause of the Bolsheviks. Most however did so as the Bolsheviks had taken their families hostage and if they when over to the whites the families would be killed. Or killed if they had lost too many times on the field of battle along with the offending officer.


    The vast sizes of Russia was one of the reasons the Russian Civil War last from 1918 to 1923. In the end the Bolsheviks were victorious. The last holdouts in Siberia were overran in early 1923. Yet the cost of the Russian Civil War was high, over 1 million died in direct combat, over 6 million died because of the Russian Famine 1918-24, and hundreds of thousands were killed to bring the population of areas under the control of the different sides to support them. Further hundreds of thousands fled the hell that was Russia. Many people of German origins who lived in Russia fled to the German Empire. More fled to the United States, Australia, South Africa, Brazil, or other nations of South America.
     
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    • sloreck

    The Australians and ANZACS are going to be welcoming Canadians and White Russians with open arms. They will want to boost their populations and are now seeing Japan as stronger and the UK as weaker and need to look to themselves more for defense. Unlike OTL at this point they can't consider the USA a potential protector. The UK, France, and Netherlands all have their colonies in SEA which the Japanese will be eyeing - while Sakhalin has some petroleum, the resources of SEA are just as vital for the Japanese economy and military as they were OTL so as time goes by...

    The USA is going to have increase the Navy and Marine Corps with all of the new island/oceanic territory it now has in the Pacific and Caribbean, a version of War Plan Orange, if not already in place will appear. Especially in the Pacific the islands will be fortified and have garrisons, since the Germans still have their Pacific Islands I expect you would see a fair bit of USN-Kriegsmarine cooperation. Certainly the Germans would want this as they are far away from their bases compared to the USN with the west coast and Hawaii as major bases. I wonder if the Aleutians, and the islands taken from the Russians will be built up a little as they are close to Japan.

    The USA is going to have to have peacetime conscription. In addition to the Navy/Marine expansion, a whole lot more Army will be needed for the newly annexed territories of what used to be Canada and the occupation of Ontario. This is both to ensure to rebellion breaks out, and also for routine garrisons. Some of the Caribbean Islands could have small garrisons, as well as coast artillery bases, and Hawaii (like OTL) have an Army garrison as the main land defense. OTL the USA had difficulty maintaining forces after WWI in terms of meeting recruiting goals, here the needs are greater.

    As posited, the Quebecois should pretty much return home, I expect those from the new "Maritime" nation probably will, and I agree that many of not most of the Canadians from annexed territories will emigrate with their families. Ontario will be a problem as the most populous bit of Canada under US control. Even if independent the USA would take some border areas, and how viable would Ontario be on its own? I foresee eventual absorption by the USA.

    Quebec I expect will be a good neighbor for the USA, and be quite sensitive in foreign policy and military matters to the policies of the USA. An emotional attachment to France, sure. Military or political alignment...mais non mes amis.

    Finally - the new Mexican entity south of the US border - is it friendly to the US and relatively aligned? how much attention will that border need.

    Just some thoughts, enjoying this.
     
    Cryostorm

    Cryostorm

    Donor
    Why didn't Italy get Corsica since it is something they could easily hold if given and might help placate their loss of Veneto.
     
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