A New Balance

[RamscoopRaider]

I'm not sure the Lodge Act would be passed. Refusing to insure unsecured loans to belligerents and discouraging them, certainly, possibly refusing to allow banks that do so be insured, probably. But outright ban, without a previous negative experience (ie the defaults from OTL WWI), that is unlikely and I don't think realistic

 

[Jim Smitty]

I'm not sure the Lodge Act would be passed. Refusing to insure unsecured loans to belligerents and discouraging them, certainly, possibly refusing to allow banks that do so be insured, probably. But outright ban, without a previous negative experience (ie the defaults from OTL WWI), that is unlikely and I don't think realistic

I wasn't sure about this. I wanted the government to give the hint that they didn't wanting to bankrolling the British and Germans.

 

[RamscoopRaider]

I wasn't sure about this. I wanted the government to give the hint that they didn't wanting to bankrolling the British and Germans.

Official warning from the federal reserve and refusal to insure such loans, or banks where the loan exceeds x% of their reserves would be enough

 

[NHBL]

I'm on post 40 and enjoying this. Two German battleships sunk by torpedo boats should have a huge effect on future ship designs and fleet doctrines. The Jeune Ecole will be having a field day...

 

[LinkedTortoise]

I like this alot. I am interested in what will happen in the future. The middle east will probably still be cut up as us won't care for it like otl. Though perhaps jim could just troll us with a French collapse early and a British sue for peace. So is there going to be a French Hitler? Or what about a red Britain? That old thread was awesome, shame its dead.

Lastly, poor little Canada, so far from God, so close to the United States.

 

[Jim Smitty]

Notice about edit of the last update. The edited bit had to deal with the loaning of money to belligerence powers. The whole paragraph has changed to make it more believable.

There was also the issue of loans to belligerence powers. The Unites States became a lender nation in the late 1890s and many banks were being swamped with request from both sides for loans to pay for the war. President Roosevelt and the bulk of the Congressional Leadership didn’t want to put the nation in position they had loan so much money to one side they would be forced to join that side just to make sure they had join that side to get their money back. On June 27th the Federal Reserve issued a warning to the banks about loaning money to belligerence powers. It stated that if they wanted to loan more than 1/3 of their reserves to belligerence powers they would not insure loans of unsecured nature.

 

[Jim Smitty]

A US-Japanese alliance would be a huge benefit here. Not only to both parties, but also to the British. Not only would an alliance between the two force everyone to reconsider any action in the Pacific - thus making everyone leave them alone - it would also promote a friendly relationship with the UK as Japan would act as a intermediary.

The only real downside here is that Japan is a bit...unpredictable in this era.

(Edit: incidentally, Jim is making me want to play Victoria 2 again. Thanks Jim!)

This TL of mine finally forced me to break down and by Victoria 2.

 

[RamscoopRaider]

Notice about edit of the last update. The edited bit had to deal with the loaning of money to belligerence powers. The whole paragraph has changed to make it more believable.

That swung a bit to far the other way instead

This is more likely

There was also the issue of loans to belligerence powers. The Unites States became a lender nation in the late 1890s and many banks were being swamped with request from both sides for loans to pay for the war. President Roosevelt and the bulk of the Congressional Leadership didn’t want to put the nation in position they had loan so much money to one side they would be forced to join that side just to make sure they had join that side to get their money back. On June 27th the Federal Reserve issued a warning to the banks about loaning money to belligerence powers. It stated that unsecured loans to belligerents would not be insured, and that banks who have made unsecured loans to belligerents of greater than 33% of their reserves would not be insured and lose access to privileges from the Federal Reserve System

 

[sloreck]

Bankers love profits but they dislike risks even more. The sort of responses made the the Fed will severely limit the amount of loans to either side. Will the US allow the belligerents to sell the equivalent of "war bonds" (paying a given interest rate after the end of the war) to private investors, not banks as that would qualify as an unsecured loan). As long as it is Joe Blow buying the bond, it is a private individual taking the risk. Of course, while it is obvious the losers won't be able to honor these loans, the reality is that the winners may have a hard time either and the bondholder has no recourse either way.

 

[JudgeKing]

This TL of mine finally forced me to break down and by Victoria 2.

Another game you might enjoy is Rule the Waves. It's a game where you take charge of a turn of the century Navy at the beginning of the 1900s, and then in the grand tradition of guys like Jackie Fisher, make lots of important decisions and design choices that seem good at the time, but in retrospect, will probably bite you in the ass.

It is 1-part ship designer, 1 part politics-simulator, and then with a final part thrown in where you toss your derpy looking creations into battle with against derpy creations other nations of the time have created in their own endeavors to keep up with the hilariously breakneck speed of naval technology in the period between 1900 to 1925.

To quote one Anon on 4chan; "60% of the game is designing warships with the technology R&D has produced and putting them in the ocean mere weeks after the march of technology has rendered them obsolete, 30% is based around being a jingoistic warmongerer and helping dictate national policy, and 10% is fightan pixelbatles where There Is Something Wrong With Your Ships Today"

 

[Jim Smitty]

Ok a further edit to Ramscoop pointing out the finer points of Banking.

Also holy fuck is the learning curve in Vicky II steep.

 

[Jim Smitty]

For the Empire of Brazil the war in Europe was met with mix feelings. The Empire was building itself up under the leadership of Dona Isabel and had seen rapid economic growth since the late 1890s till a depression hit in 1911. They had only started to climb out of this depression when the war started. This started off with a boon in coffee and rubber prices had seen a rapid growth of revenue of the Brazilian Government. Under the leadership of Dona Isabel and her prime ministers that money was used in a mix of miliarial and industrial growth of her nation. Together with the ending of the Russo-Japanese War in 1907 the Brazilian nation had cemented its status as a Great Power of the World. One of the weaker great powers, but still a great power none the less.


Even with the growth of the industrial sector of the Brazilian economy the Empire was still a resource oriented economy. Granted the industrial sector had picked up enough that the economy didn’t totally collapse after the fall of coffee and rubber prices, but the start of the war had caught the Brazilian just as they were pulling themselves out of the depression they had been in. The war through a monkey wrench into their plans to finish pulling their economy fully out of the depression that started in 1911. Like the US Europeans started to try and drain Brazil of its gold reserves as they sold their Brazilian securities holdings for Reals than turning the Reals into gold to bring back to Europe.


Following the American lead on the subject, on July 20th by royal decree the stock exchanges in Brazil were shut down. Unlike the Americans however, Dona Isabel only closed them for good for eight weeks with it being clear she would extend as needed. This was even bolder than it had been for the Americans as Brazil was still a borrower nation in 1915. There was sizable blow back by this royal decree but with the need for resources being such that there wasn’t much that could be done without risking these resources needed to feed the war machines of the Europeans.


Even as the Brazilians were taking measures to keep their economy from falling back into a depression there was the issue of its military. As part of the industrial build up of Brazil before the depression they had started a program of building up a domestic arms industry. Yet when the depression hit in 1911 they were still short of their aims when the money that been earmarked for these task had to shifted to other needs or just when away altogether. Even through they had the ability to make small arms and most of their ammo domestically they were still in need of artillery from foreign sources for their army. They had placed an order for 159 10 cm M. 14 Howitzers from Austria Hungary only in March as the first part of starting a military build up again were seized by Austria Hungary.


On the naval front it was even worse than it was for the army. They had made a major effort to build up their ship building industry as part of the boom years before the depression. Yet in 1915 they could only locally build light destroyers but were depended on imported parts, notably the engines and boilers needed to power the ships and armaments. They were also in need of experts to help run the yards as they were trying to train locals to do the jobs. These experts came from the United Kingdom and Germany who both returned home at the start of the war. This left their shipyards idle as they hadn’t didn’t have enough trained personal to run and work the yards. It also saw an order for a pair of light battlecruisers[1] from the British who were placed in May be cancelled as British yards were flooded by orders for the Royal Navy.


Brazil had choices to make about its future for itself in the world. They knew that they could join the Entente and gain French Guiana and send part of its army to Europe as the French made that offer in early September. Yet they knew that they couldn’t defend their nation from the United States should the US enter the war against the Entente. Yet they couldn’t trade with Germany or the Central Powers because of the blockade that was being put in place by the British. So they decided to sell resources to the Entente but not loan money as they have enough money to loan out. They wanted to use the money they gained from selling to the Entente to keep building up.


[1] Think something along the lines of the OTL Courageous Battlecruiser Class but designed for sea going needs of the Brazil.

 

[NHBL]

At the same time, Roosevelt order Secretary of State Elihu Root to start working on drafting on a note to be passed to Whitehall in the event the US was forced into a war with the Central Powers. The US wanted nothing to do with Africa which besides the sole German colony in China was the only place Germany held territory outside of Europe. And said German colony in China was being attacked by the Japanese and the Japanese were unlikely to give it up. He told Root to explain it in this note that the US would not committed its army to Europe without territorial cession by the British elsewhere in the world. After talking with Root it was decided that what they would hint at to the British these territorial cessions would need to be the Sandwich Islands, the British Virgin Islands, Bermuda, Machias Seal Island, North Rock, and finally surrendering the Alaskan-Canadian Border Dispute[2] with the American version of the border being the accepted border.

If I understand correctly, this note is NOT being sent currently, but is a contingency prepared, so that IF the USA gets into the war, the Department of State has its instructions for dealing with the British government marked out clearly. USA in war without such concessions means that the USA is not sending its troops into the meat grinder, but working on the peripheries and at sea.

If this note is sent, it's a starting point for negotiations, so that the USA doesn't end up with a mass of dead citizens and no gain. The beauty of it is that, should the USA end up in the war on either side, it stands to gain something. Without some sort of promise, there's nothing the USA can gain by fighting the Central Powers...

Of course, extorting (as the British would see it) territorial concessions in exchange for helping the Brits fight Germany could poison the relationship forever, far more than the USA joining the Central Powers might.

The mere thought of the USA as an enemy should frighten the British; Canada is very vulnerable.

Great timeline, and in this Great War, a lot of lessons have already been learned...
HMMMM...having seen more modern warfare, has anyone already been thinking of ways to break through trenchlines, via tracked armored vehicles, Storm Troopers (Great War version, not SS!) or gas warfare?

 

[Jim Smitty]

If I understand correctly, this note is NOT being sent currently, but is a contingency prepared, so that IF the USA gets into the war, the Department of State has its instructions for dealing with the British government marked out clearly. USA in war without such concessions means that the USA is not sending its troops into the meat grinder, but working on the peripheries and at sea.

If this note is sent, it's a starting point for negotiations, so that the USA doesn't end up with a mass of dead citizens and no gain. The beauty of it is that, should the USA end up in the war on either side, it stands to gain something. Without some sort of promise, there's nothing the USA can gain by fighting the Central Powers...

Of course, extorting (as the British would see it) territorial concessions in exchange for helping the Brits fight Germany could poison the relationship forever, far more than the USA joining the Central Powers might.

The mere thought of the USA as an enemy should frighten the British; Canada is very vulnerable.

Great timeline, and in this Great War, a lot of lessons have already been learned...
HMMMM...having seen more modern warfare, has anyone already been thinking of ways to break through trenchlines, via tracked armored vehicles, Storm Troopers (Great War version, not SS!) or gas warfare?

Yes this note hasn't been sent and will only be sent in the even that the US finds itself at war with the CP instead of the British. Its a fall back in case the unlikely happens.

As to to the rest of it, no commit.

 

[NHBL]

Yes this note hasn't been sent and will only be sent in the even that the US finds itself at war with the CP instead of the British. Its a fall back in case the unlikely happens.

As to to the rest of it, no commit.

I suspect that, even if it is sent, it will get last minute revisions. I definitely think that sketching out such communications before the crisis is wise. Is there a comparable note being planned in the event that the USA ends up fighting alongside the Central Powers? It's probably not as important in this case, as the land the USA wants is controlled by Britain, and thus can be taken in the event of war.

 

[NHBL]

A BIG question: How did the US Government start insuring banks this early? The FDIC in OTL came about in 1933

 

[RamscoopRaider]

A BIG question: How did the US Government start insuring banks this early? The FDIC in OTL came about in 1933

Probably insuring is not the right word, but the Federal Reserve Act, if passed as OTL in 1913, would allow for emergency loans to be made if the Bank ran into difficulty because of say a default on a loan. AFAIK (not sure where I heard this) when the US entered WWI it insured loans made to the Entente nations to encourage such loans

Plus this act could also be aimed at state banks, they were still around, not sure if any states were insuring state banks at this time

 

[Kaiser Chris]

Going forward Roosevelt should really stack up some allies first in order to go into the Great War with a concrete plan instead of just waiting for an opportunity and then winging it based on the U.S performance. He should also be prepared for the scenario where the United States doesn't get pulled in at all and will get absolutely nothing. In my opinion he should ally with either Brazil, Japan, or both. Brazil is an early great power that can help America to secure its position in the Western hemisphere by acting as a police state along with the United States in South America. Since the butterflies have caused the U.S to not take its more aggressive actions in Latin America then it will probably be looked upon somewhat favorably within the region and Dona Isabel might want to ally with the U.S as insurance against any actions by a European power. I can see her and Teddy ruling the Americas as a power couple there. Also while Japan and the United States may be two powers that can sometimes conflict in the pacific, they are the only non-European powers in Asia and as such they need to stick together. America doesn't have Hawaii so they don't have as many interests in the pacific yet and the fact that they have a sizeable amount of territory in China means they can't outright insult Japan's aggression. Japan needs to become independent of Britain's influence and have a strong ally to say fuck you to Europe when they try and restrict Japan's gains in war, in comes America. Just a thought at what could be the third great alliance ITTL.

 

[sloreck]

Right now the US has nothing to gain by joining either side, and needs to build up its military in certain areas. It is selling to both sides for hard cash, I assume things like ammunition, cloth/uniforms, web gear, canteens will be sold although arms probably not as the US needs to them to modernize expand. Of course food and non-military goods will be going out on a cash basis, even if previously sold on credit. From a strictly cynical point of view it serves the US' purposes best for both sides to fight themselves to a white peace or at a minimum exhaust themselves significantly while the US builds up and can decide where to throw its weight on the scale (not too much different than what happened OTL).

What would the USA want to gain either by conquest or as part of a deal. The USA has significant Pacific holdings as well as holdings in China, and Hawaii stands between the USA and those holdings so getting Hawaii would be a good thing. Some Caribbean islands might be nice, however not as key as OTL - here the US has not yet acquired the Virgin Islands, and there is no canal to protect (yet) so these are less important. The population of Canada in 1915 OTL was about 7.5 million, for the USA it was 100.5 million - absorbing all of Canada is possible, certainly the USA could take everything west of the Rocky Mountains (BC ~720K, Alberta less) which would mean adding 1-1.5 million people. Also, adjustments in the east would be made.

The USA has zero interest in any colonies in Africa, and it would most likely take over British and French colonies in South or Central America only to keep Germany from getting them.

A victorious Entente is unlikely to give the USA Hawaii, or BC +/- Alberta. The UK would be very unlikely to do away with imperial preference and allow the USA free and equal access to imperial trade. If the USA is going to put blood and treasure at risk for "gain", all things being equal joining the CP would be the way to go. Naturally if one side or the other is looking like a clear winner...

 

[Jim Smitty]

Right now the US has nothing to gain by joining either side, and needs to build up its military in certain areas. It is selling to both sides for hard cash, I assume things like ammunition, cloth/uniforms, web gear, canteens will be sold although arms probably not as the US needs to them to modernize expand. Of course food and non-military goods will be going out on a cash basis, even if previously sold on credit. From a strictly cynical point of view it serves the US' purposes best for both sides to fight themselves to a white peace or at a minimum exhaust themselves significantly while the US builds up and can decide where to throw its weight on the scale (not too much different than what happened OTL).

The US ITL has far more military muscle than the US did OTL at this point in time. That said they are still learning the lessons from Second Mexico and working on new equipment from said lessons. The army through is still on the small size for a nation the size of the US ITL. But its not the barebones thing that the US when into WWI with.

What would the USA want to gain either by conquest or as part of a deal. The USA has significant Pacific holdings as well as holdings in China, and Hawaii stands between the USA and those holdings so getting Hawaii would be a good thing. Some Caribbean islands might be nice, however not as key as OTL - here the US has not yet acquired the Virgin Islands, and there is no canal to protect (yet) so these are less important. The population of Canada in 1915 OTL was about 7.5 million, for the USA it was 100.5 million - absorbing all of Canada is possible, certainly the USA could take everything west of the Rocky Mountains (BC ~720K, Alberta less) which would mean adding 1-1.5 million people. Also, adjustments in the east would be made.

One point, the US does hold the Virgin Islands as outline in this update. They have been American territory since 1879, but ITL they have been folded into Puerto Rico.

The USA has zero interest in any colonies in Africa, and it would most likely take over British and French colonies in South or Central America only to keep Germany from getting them.

A victorious Entente is unlikely to give the USA Hawaii, or BC +/- Alberta. The UK would be very unlikely to do away with imperial preference and allow the USA free and equal access to imperial trade. If the USA is going to put blood and treasure at risk for "gain", all things being equal joining the CP would be the way to go. Naturally if one side or the other is looking like a clear winner...

You are very right, the US has zero interest in getting anything in Africa.