ITTL the western front is doing better than OTL. German policy ITTL as OTL is to knock out France before Russia can fully mobilize. I'm not sure why they would not push on in the west to the best of their ability to accomplish this goal, accepting some temporary losses in the east as they did OTL. If the author is having the Russians do much better in the east, then a shift of troops robbing the effort in the west over and above OTL will stall things. Not sure how the Russians could do much better than they did OTL.
A New Balance
- Thread starter Jim Smitty
- Start date
World War One, The Hard Six
The Russian Offensive into East Prussia came as a total shock to the German high command when the Russians invaded East Prussia on June 27th. The Germans had staked almost everything on a rapid offensive against the French and had only left one understrength army the 8th in the East to defend against the Russians. The Russians who after their performance in the Russo-Japanese War had been discounted as having the ability to mobilize fast. Yet before the Russians had finished mobilizing their armies they launched their invasion of East Prussia with three armies. The Russians vastly outnumbered the Germans in the east at this point.
For the Russians they had learned a number of important lessons from their defeat in the Russo-Japanese War just a decade prior. However there were still two major issues facing the Russian Army that had yet to be totally dealt with along with many minor issues that still be dealt with. The first was that of heavy industry needed to make weapons. Although they have improved since the end of the war with the Japanese about 1/5 of all soldiers being sent into the battle against the Germans in East Prussia were unarmed foot soldiers who had orders to pick up weapons from their dead brothers in arms. The second one was that of NCOs. Since the Roman Legions the backbone of every army had been its non-commissioned officers or the sergeants. Yet the Russian Army bucked this as many sergeants within the Russian Army would have only been privates in every other Army in the world at this stage of the game. Well, expect the different Chinese Armies fighting across China at the moment. Most of these sergeants could neither read nor write. They were selected for sergeant billets for loyally to the system or brutal strength.
At first the Germans were panicking as their commander in the 8th Army was pushing for a defense behind the Vistula as he was badly outnumbered. This would effectively abandon East Prussia to being occupied by the Russians. On paper it was sound as the Russians outnumbered the Germans in almost every number that matter in large amounts. Yet abandoning East Prussia was politically unacceptable to Berlin. On August 2nd they sacked the panicking commander of the 8th Army and replaced him with GeneralOblerst Erich Ludendorff who was fresh off his victory at Namur. Ludendorff was a veteran of the Island War where he was awarded for his bravely on the battlefield against the Americans. After returning to Germany Ludendorff was found to be a great staff officer and quickly climb the ranks. After commanding the corp that won at Namur, he was given the command of the 8th Army.
Even as Ludendorff was on the move to get to East Prussia with reinforcements being detached from the campaign against the French the Russians refused to slow down. They were being slowed down by their own logistical headaches as much as German resistance. This gave Ludendorff time to reach East Prussia with the extra corp that had been retasked to East Prussia. Looking at the map Ludendorff quickly saw that the Russians were spread out over a wide area and not in a position to support each other. This was even more pronounced for the Russian 3rd Army. Ludendorff decided to take the bulk of his army south to take on the Russian 3rd Army and destroy it before turning to deal with the Russian 1st and 2nd Armies.
The German 8th Army then when about and cut off the Russian 3rd Army on August 9th around the town of Osterode. Over the next four days it was totally destroyed by the German 8th with almost 100,000 Russians being marched into POW camps. It was an impressive feat of arms, but the Germans were still outnumbered badly by the Russians. During this time of destroying the overextended Russian 3rd Army, the Russian 1st and 2nd Armies kept advancing on their goal of taking Konigsberg. This gave Ludendorff pause as he had to figure out what to do next.
On August 17th, his cavalry units reported a gap had formed between the Russian 1st and 2nd Armies again which had been picked up SIGINT. It was one of the first major uses of SIGINT. This was help with the total incompetence of the Russians who were sending their messages over the radio in the clear. This was do or die time as the Russians were in sight of Konigsberg by this point. Trusting his garrison units at Konigsberg Ludendorff put a bold plan into motion that if work would destroy at least one of the Russian Armies, if not both of them. If it failed Konigsberg would fall.
The German 8th Army when on a wide flanking move and stuck from the rear of the Russian 2nd Army. They stuck at Goldop on the 19th. This came as a shock to the Russians who had missed the German 8th Army getting into their rear. Once again through not reacting fast enough, the Russian 2nd Army had been cut off from the Russian 1st Army by the end of the 21st and surrounded a day later. It was on the 23rd that the Russian 1st Army gave up on its goal of Konigsberg and try to break through the German lines to allow 2nd Army to escape the trap it was in.
Only like their French allies they had failed to take note of the American shell crisis in Second Mexico. They still firmly believed that the cold steel of the bayonet was enough with the right amounts of artillery. Yet by this point in the campaign they had used most of their shells and their resupply issues through improved since the war in Far East 10 years earlier left a lot to be wanted. Even more so since they use a different train gauge than everyone else in the world. This meant they had to stop their trains at the peacetime border and unload their trains onto a single captured locomotive and five box carts to bring up their ammo to the front. The Germans on the other hand had increased the number of shells per gun in storage by 20% in the aftermath of watching Second Mexico.
The Russian 1st Army made three brave efforts to break the German encirclement of the Russian 2nd Army. Yet on the fourth day the Russians limbers had ran dry and the 2nd Army supply position was bleak. 1st Army decided to break and run to save its own skin. This left the Russian 2nd Army to surrender on August 29th. The German 8th Army needed to rest after all its marching and hard fighting to achieve their victories at Osterode and Angerburg.
For the Russians they had learned a number of important lessons from their defeat in the Russo-Japanese War just a decade prior. However there were still two major issues facing the Russian Army that had yet to be totally dealt with along with many minor issues that still be dealt with. The first was that of heavy industry needed to make weapons. Although they have improved since the end of the war with the Japanese about 1/5 of all soldiers being sent into the battle against the Germans in East Prussia were unarmed foot soldiers who had orders to pick up weapons from their dead brothers in arms. The second one was that of NCOs. Since the Roman Legions the backbone of every army had been its non-commissioned officers or the sergeants. Yet the Russian Army bucked this as many sergeants within the Russian Army would have only been privates in every other Army in the world at this stage of the game. Well, expect the different Chinese Armies fighting across China at the moment. Most of these sergeants could neither read nor write. They were selected for sergeant billets for loyally to the system or brutal strength.
At first the Germans were panicking as their commander in the 8th Army was pushing for a defense behind the Vistula as he was badly outnumbered. This would effectively abandon East Prussia to being occupied by the Russians. On paper it was sound as the Russians outnumbered the Germans in almost every number that matter in large amounts. Yet abandoning East Prussia was politically unacceptable to Berlin. On August 2nd they sacked the panicking commander of the 8th Army and replaced him with GeneralOblerst Erich Ludendorff who was fresh off his victory at Namur. Ludendorff was a veteran of the Island War where he was awarded for his bravely on the battlefield against the Americans. After returning to Germany Ludendorff was found to be a great staff officer and quickly climb the ranks. After commanding the corp that won at Namur, he was given the command of the 8th Army.
Even as Ludendorff was on the move to get to East Prussia with reinforcements being detached from the campaign against the French the Russians refused to slow down. They were being slowed down by their own logistical headaches as much as German resistance. This gave Ludendorff time to reach East Prussia with the extra corp that had been retasked to East Prussia. Looking at the map Ludendorff quickly saw that the Russians were spread out over a wide area and not in a position to support each other. This was even more pronounced for the Russian 3rd Army. Ludendorff decided to take the bulk of his army south to take on the Russian 3rd Army and destroy it before turning to deal with the Russian 1st and 2nd Armies.
The German 8th Army then when about and cut off the Russian 3rd Army on August 9th around the town of Osterode. Over the next four days it was totally destroyed by the German 8th with almost 100,000 Russians being marched into POW camps. It was an impressive feat of arms, but the Germans were still outnumbered badly by the Russians. During this time of destroying the overextended Russian 3rd Army, the Russian 1st and 2nd Armies kept advancing on their goal of taking Konigsberg. This gave Ludendorff pause as he had to figure out what to do next.
On August 17th, his cavalry units reported a gap had formed between the Russian 1st and 2nd Armies again which had been picked up SIGINT. It was one of the first major uses of SIGINT. This was help with the total incompetence of the Russians who were sending their messages over the radio in the clear. This was do or die time as the Russians were in sight of Konigsberg by this point. Trusting his garrison units at Konigsberg Ludendorff put a bold plan into motion that if work would destroy at least one of the Russian Armies, if not both of them. If it failed Konigsberg would fall.
The German 8th Army when on a wide flanking move and stuck from the rear of the Russian 2nd Army. They stuck at Goldop on the 19th. This came as a shock to the Russians who had missed the German 8th Army getting into their rear. Once again through not reacting fast enough, the Russian 2nd Army had been cut off from the Russian 1st Army by the end of the 21st and surrounded a day later. It was on the 23rd that the Russian 1st Army gave up on its goal of Konigsberg and try to break through the German lines to allow 2nd Army to escape the trap it was in.
Only like their French allies they had failed to take note of the American shell crisis in Second Mexico. They still firmly believed that the cold steel of the bayonet was enough with the right amounts of artillery. Yet by this point in the campaign they had used most of their shells and their resupply issues through improved since the war in Far East 10 years earlier left a lot to be wanted. Even more so since they use a different train gauge than everyone else in the world. This meant they had to stop their trains at the peacetime border and unload their trains onto a single captured locomotive and five box carts to bring up their ammo to the front. The Germans on the other hand had increased the number of shells per gun in storage by 20% in the aftermath of watching Second Mexico.
The Russian 1st Army made three brave efforts to break the German encirclement of the Russian 2nd Army. Yet on the fourth day the Russians limbers had ran dry and the 2nd Army supply position was bleak. 1st Army decided to break and run to save its own skin. This left the Russian 2nd Army to surrender on August 29th. The German 8th Army needed to rest after all its marching and hard fighting to achieve their victories at Osterode and Angerburg.
Russia has reserves and can trade space for time to mobilize fully so don't count them out just yet. Still losing two armies early is going to hurt. On the flip side they could learn from this. And we have yet to see the AH-Russia front.
World War One, The Austro-Hungarian and Russian Invasions.
For the Austro Hungarian Army like their German allies they faced a two front war. However unlike their German allies they had to maintain forces on their Italian and Romanian borders as both of those nations were sitting out this war and had long standing claims of territory controlled by their Empire as historically their territory. Also unlike their allies they had three different armies instead of one. It was one of the many comprises needed to keep the nation together in the wake of their defeat in 1866 at the hands of the Prussians before Germany had even united as a single nation. Which made their command and control harder than most. Then there was also the fact that only a very small number of Austro-Hungarian officers had seen a real war or anything close to it in 1915. Outside the battalion of men who took part in the Boxer War no one had any idea what war was like or had taken part in one with the last war they had fought in was the 1866 war against Prussia.
That said, the Austro-Hungarian Military had kept themselves up to date on what was happening around the world. They also learned the lessons from 1866 and made a number of changes to their military forces and mobilization efforts. They had also invested into good artillery systems and even with the Hungarians trying to hamstring the efforts have increased shell production since the end of Second Mexico. It still wasn’t as much as the Germans were keeping in storage per gun but it was an improvement. Further they had started some reforms to improve their army’s performance based on lessons learned from the Russo-Japanese and Second Mexican-American Wars.
Once their mobilization was finished the Austro-Hungarians launched an offensive into Russia thinking that Germany would do the same on the 18th. This is after they put only the needed forces in place against the Serbs and garrison forces against the Italians and Romanians. Still they were sending the bulk of their army after the Russians in a bold offensive. They planned and assumed that Germany would go after Russia and allowed the well-fortified Franco-German front hold and they would take down the Russian bear together. To their horror they had elected to go through Belgium to try and take the French out of the war before it really got going.
Instead of recalling their invasion of Russia the Austro Hungarian Chief of Staff General der Infanterie Franz Conrad von Hotzendorf decided to press on with his invasion plans of Russia believing it could bring glory to the Empire and put it in a good position when peace talks came. For the first week they made good on their offensive and overran a number of Russian regiments who were guarding the Russo-Austro Border. At the deepest points by the end of the 24th they had advanced 35 kilometers. This all changed through when the Russians launched their counter attack on the 25th.
The Russian counter attack threw the Austro Hungarian High Command into a state of total confusion. Based on their studies of the Russo-Japanese War the von Hotzendorf’s staff believed the Russians would need four weeks to fully mobilize. By that point the Congress of Poland should have been cut off and Minsk should have been in spitting distance of their army. With the Russians were throwing five armies at the Austro Hungarian Army who were caught up in offensive positions and poor defensive positions. This threw the Austro Hungarian Army back in disarray.
Instead of ordering a retreat order on the 25th von Hotzendorf order his army to stand fast for most part as he tried moving units where they needed to be to plug the lines. This was a mistake. He should felt back to his defensive lines and forts and claimed a victory. Yet instead what he did was foolish. It led to the 2nd Austro Hungarian Army becoming encircled Lubin and the 4th Austro Hungarian Army at Lutsk by the 30th. Then on the 31st von Hotzendorf was relieved of command after suffering a mental breakdown the day before. His replacement was in a horrible position. Two armies encircled and the whole front was on the verge of collapse. He was face with a hard choice he ordered his armies to fall back to the defensive lines within Austria-Hungary.
Any other choice he knew risked the total collapse of the front. He needed to reequip and rebuild his forces before he could return to the offensive. He was writing off two whole armies in doing so but his choices were poor to start with and this was the only choice that meant he wasn’t going to kill the empire in one fell swoop. By the 2nd of August the front had started to stabilize with the risk of another breakthrough like happened on the 25th of July gone.
As the Austro Hungarian Army fell back the two armies that were encircled by the Russians fought on. 2nd Army surrender to the Russians on the 5th, the 4th surrender three days later. This was after their artillery shells had run dry and knowing there was no one coming to save them. They had already been informed of that and had been ordered by von Hotzendorf replacement to simply hold out for as long as they could and tie down as many Russian units as possible. It was a best call they could make but it still hurt.
That time was needed. After regrouping from flushing out the two pockets they created the Russians when back on the offensive again. On August 14th they entered Austria-Hungary itself. Then on the 16th they ran smack into the defensives of the Austro-Hungarians. This crewed them up and spit them back out by the 21st. With the cluster that was their East Prussian Invasion they called off their invasion of Austria-Hungary on the 22nd so they could regroup for another round. For the Austro-Hungarian forces they had stop the Russians from invading their nation but at a high cost. They do were prepping for the next round to take on the Russians for Round Two.
That said, the Austro-Hungarian Military had kept themselves up to date on what was happening around the world. They also learned the lessons from 1866 and made a number of changes to their military forces and mobilization efforts. They had also invested into good artillery systems and even with the Hungarians trying to hamstring the efforts have increased shell production since the end of Second Mexico. It still wasn’t as much as the Germans were keeping in storage per gun but it was an improvement. Further they had started some reforms to improve their army’s performance based on lessons learned from the Russo-Japanese and Second Mexican-American Wars.
Once their mobilization was finished the Austro-Hungarians launched an offensive into Russia thinking that Germany would do the same on the 18th. This is after they put only the needed forces in place against the Serbs and garrison forces against the Italians and Romanians. Still they were sending the bulk of their army after the Russians in a bold offensive. They planned and assumed that Germany would go after Russia and allowed the well-fortified Franco-German front hold and they would take down the Russian bear together. To their horror they had elected to go through Belgium to try and take the French out of the war before it really got going.
Instead of recalling their invasion of Russia the Austro Hungarian Chief of Staff General der Infanterie Franz Conrad von Hotzendorf decided to press on with his invasion plans of Russia believing it could bring glory to the Empire and put it in a good position when peace talks came. For the first week they made good on their offensive and overran a number of Russian regiments who were guarding the Russo-Austro Border. At the deepest points by the end of the 24th they had advanced 35 kilometers. This all changed through when the Russians launched their counter attack on the 25th.
The Russian counter attack threw the Austro Hungarian High Command into a state of total confusion. Based on their studies of the Russo-Japanese War the von Hotzendorf’s staff believed the Russians would need four weeks to fully mobilize. By that point the Congress of Poland should have been cut off and Minsk should have been in spitting distance of their army. With the Russians were throwing five armies at the Austro Hungarian Army who were caught up in offensive positions and poor defensive positions. This threw the Austro Hungarian Army back in disarray.
Instead of ordering a retreat order on the 25th von Hotzendorf order his army to stand fast for most part as he tried moving units where they needed to be to plug the lines. This was a mistake. He should felt back to his defensive lines and forts and claimed a victory. Yet instead what he did was foolish. It led to the 2nd Austro Hungarian Army becoming encircled Lubin and the 4th Austro Hungarian Army at Lutsk by the 30th. Then on the 31st von Hotzendorf was relieved of command after suffering a mental breakdown the day before. His replacement was in a horrible position. Two armies encircled and the whole front was on the verge of collapse. He was face with a hard choice he ordered his armies to fall back to the defensive lines within Austria-Hungary.
Any other choice he knew risked the total collapse of the front. He needed to reequip and rebuild his forces before he could return to the offensive. He was writing off two whole armies in doing so but his choices were poor to start with and this was the only choice that meant he wasn’t going to kill the empire in one fell swoop. By the 2nd of August the front had started to stabilize with the risk of another breakthrough like happened on the 25th of July gone.
As the Austro Hungarian Army fell back the two armies that were encircled by the Russians fought on. 2nd Army surrender to the Russians on the 5th, the 4th surrender three days later. This was after their artillery shells had run dry and knowing there was no one coming to save them. They had already been informed of that and had been ordered by von Hotzendorf replacement to simply hold out for as long as they could and tie down as many Russian units as possible. It was a best call they could make but it still hurt.
That time was needed. After regrouping from flushing out the two pockets they created the Russians when back on the offensive again. On August 14th they entered Austria-Hungary itself. Then on the 16th they ran smack into the defensives of the Austro-Hungarians. This crewed them up and spit them back out by the 21st. With the cluster that was their East Prussian Invasion they called off their invasion of Austria-Hungary on the 22nd so they could regroup for another round. For the Austro-Hungarian forces they had stop the Russians from invading their nation but at a high cost. They do were prepping for the next round to take on the Russians for Round Two.
Is it just me or does it seem like A-H might have someone with at least eight year old intelligence at the reigns of the army ITTL?
I am hardly an expert on A-H`s performance in WWI. But everything I heard about them, and Hotzendorf in particular is never all that great.
I've heard people argue that A-H was the true sick man of Europe
I never understood why there could not have been more than one. The Ottomans, A-H, Spain and Russian all had some claim to the title. Russia in more subtle ways than the others with their serfdom, poor infrastructure, limited industry and social unrest.
RamscoopRaider
Donor
Unless the Austro-Hungarians got the Italians to let them borrow Luigi Cadorna it's an improvement
As long as A-H is not fighting a two front war as Italy is still not involved, and they stand on the defensive (mostly) they can manage a stalemate more or less along the prewar border. With the attack in East Prussia and the impending/ongoing disaster there, the Russians can't do much across the Carpathians at the same time. Basically A-H is "saved" by the real limitations of the Russians. Both A-H and Russia suffer from severe internal problems, Russia's are more in terms of its social structure while A-H's problems are more ethnic - both at the low levels with military units that can't talk to each other (literally) and the Hungarians who are willing to pull the whole structure down if they come out of the wreckage with the gains they want.
World War One, Armed Neutrality
For the United States the start of the war in Europe put them in an odd position in the geopolitical world. They didn’t have great relations with the German Empire. Granted they had improved since the Island War in the mid-1890s but they still haven’t recovered to what they were in the aftermath of the end of Spanish-American War in 1875. That said, they were leap and bounds better than their relations with the British with almost everyone in the halls of power in Washington DC detested the British. Outside the junior senator from New Jersey, Woodrow Wilson and a small set in the Democratic Party everyone in Washington was more or less an Anglophobia.
One of the first acts made by the United States that effected the war came from an unlikely source. Secretary of Treasury Hiram Johnson who was rumored to be in the hunt of the 1916 Republican Ticket, acted on July 13th 1915 that changed America forever. As it was becoming increasable clear that a war was about to spread from the Balkans to the rest of Europe they when about cashing out their investments for dollars. Then in turn, they would turn those dollars into gold to bring their money back home. Had they done this they would had stripped a sizable amount of the gold used to back the dollar out of the US and taken it back to Europe. Johnson couldn’t allow this to happen because if it did the value of the dollar would had fallen greatly and risked the US falling into a depression. He ordered the closing of all of the stock exchanges across the nation for three months.
This was a bold and unprecedented move by Johnson. Had the US still been a debtor nation in 1915 this could had caused major issues. But the US hadn’t been a debtor nation since the late 1890s and held more debt of European nations than the other way around. This allowed the US to stay on the gold standard instead of what was happening in Europe where many nations were ending the gold standard as part of their efforts to pay for the war. It also increased the value of the dollar against the European currencies.
With the possibly of a depression passed the US watched the Europeans go to war. Privately many in Washington said or thought, let the Europeans kill each other and we will make a profit selling to both sides. Because outside its defensive treaty with the Republic of the Rio Grande, the US wasn’t tied to another nation on the face of the Earth. And with the heavy control of foreign affairs the US had in Rio Grande they knew they wouldn’t be tied to another nation beside Rio Grande either. As such they wouldn’t get into the mess this war was quickly becoming. Some in the White House, including President Roosevelt however, believed that it was more a question of when and not if the US would be forced into this war.
On July 30th President Roosevelt gave his Armed Neutrality Speech when he was speaking to a crowd in Boston. In this speech, which was beautifully written and given by Roosevelt he stated that America would not enter the war. However, they should not allow their guard down. They needed to maintain a strong military arm so they could trade with the world and not bow to anyone on the high seas. He called a further buildup of the navy and a smaller one of the army on top of what was already going on at the moment. Congress however fell short of what Roosevelt wanted and only agreed to four more battleships and five more regiments to be built up with a defense bill passed in the next month. Not the six battleships, two battlecruisers, and ten more regiments Roosevelt wanted.
There was also the issue of loans to belligerence powers. The Unites States became a lender nation in the late 1890s and many banks were being swamped with request from both sides for loans to pay for the war. President Roosevelt and the bulk of the Congressional Leadership didn’t want to put the nation in position they had loan so much money to one side they would be forced to join that side just to make sure they had join that side to get their money back. On June 27th the Federal Reserve issued a warning to the banks about loaning money to belligerence powers. It stated that unsecured loans to belligerents would not be insured, and that banks who have made unsecured loans to belligerents of greater than 33% of their reserves would not be insured and lose access to privileges from the Federal Reserve System
Roosevelt however was also hedging his bets for the worse if the US was forced into war. He ordered his Secretary of War George Cortelyou, Secretary of Navy Charles J Bonaparte, with the senior flag officers of both the Army and Navy to start to draw up plans for an invasion of the Dominion Canada, the Caribbean, and Imperial Federation of Australia and New Zealand[1]. To say that was bold was an understatement. Both Canada and the IFANZ had entered the war against the Central Powers. But the US was already thin on troops and even with the build up they had only taken some of the pressures off the small army the US kept. After a few rounds of talks it was decided that Canada and the Caribbean would take priory over the IFANZ in the event of the US being driven into war with the Entente.
At the same time, Roosevelt order Secretary of State Elihu Root to start working on drafting on a note to be passed to Whitehall in the event the US was forced into a war with the Central Powers. The US wanted nothing to do with Africa which besides the sole German colony in China was the only place Germany held territory outside of Europe. And said German colony in China was being attacked by the Japanese and the Japanese were unlikely to give it up. He told Root to explain it in this note that the US would not committed its army to Europe without territorial cession by the British elsewhere in the world. After talking with Root it was decided that what they would hint at to the British these territorial cessions would need to be the Sandwich Islands, the British Virgin Islands, Bermuda, Machias Seal Island, North Rock, and finally surrendering the Alaskan-Canadian Border Dispute[2] with the American version of the border being the accepted border.
[1] ITL because of the long shadow the US currently cast over the SW Pacific, Australia and New Zealand merged into a single nation in 1899.
[2] Because of the piss poor relations between London and Washington this hasn’t been put to bed yet.
One of the first acts made by the United States that effected the war came from an unlikely source. Secretary of Treasury Hiram Johnson who was rumored to be in the hunt of the 1916 Republican Ticket, acted on July 13th 1915 that changed America forever. As it was becoming increasable clear that a war was about to spread from the Balkans to the rest of Europe they when about cashing out their investments for dollars. Then in turn, they would turn those dollars into gold to bring their money back home. Had they done this they would had stripped a sizable amount of the gold used to back the dollar out of the US and taken it back to Europe. Johnson couldn’t allow this to happen because if it did the value of the dollar would had fallen greatly and risked the US falling into a depression. He ordered the closing of all of the stock exchanges across the nation for three months.
This was a bold and unprecedented move by Johnson. Had the US still been a debtor nation in 1915 this could had caused major issues. But the US hadn’t been a debtor nation since the late 1890s and held more debt of European nations than the other way around. This allowed the US to stay on the gold standard instead of what was happening in Europe where many nations were ending the gold standard as part of their efforts to pay for the war. It also increased the value of the dollar against the European currencies.
With the possibly of a depression passed the US watched the Europeans go to war. Privately many in Washington said or thought, let the Europeans kill each other and we will make a profit selling to both sides. Because outside its defensive treaty with the Republic of the Rio Grande, the US wasn’t tied to another nation on the face of the Earth. And with the heavy control of foreign affairs the US had in Rio Grande they knew they wouldn’t be tied to another nation beside Rio Grande either. As such they wouldn’t get into the mess this war was quickly becoming. Some in the White House, including President Roosevelt however, believed that it was more a question of when and not if the US would be forced into this war.
On July 30th President Roosevelt gave his Armed Neutrality Speech when he was speaking to a crowd in Boston. In this speech, which was beautifully written and given by Roosevelt he stated that America would not enter the war. However, they should not allow their guard down. They needed to maintain a strong military arm so they could trade with the world and not bow to anyone on the high seas. He called a further buildup of the navy and a smaller one of the army on top of what was already going on at the moment. Congress however fell short of what Roosevelt wanted and only agreed to four more battleships and five more regiments to be built up with a defense bill passed in the next month. Not the six battleships, two battlecruisers, and ten more regiments Roosevelt wanted.
There was also the issue of loans to belligerence powers. The Unites States became a lender nation in the late 1890s and many banks were being swamped with request from both sides for loans to pay for the war. President Roosevelt and the bulk of the Congressional Leadership didn’t want to put the nation in position they had loan so much money to one side they would be forced to join that side just to make sure they had join that side to get their money back. On June 27th the Federal Reserve issued a warning to the banks about loaning money to belligerence powers. It stated that unsecured loans to belligerents would not be insured, and that banks who have made unsecured loans to belligerents of greater than 33% of their reserves would not be insured and lose access to privileges from the Federal Reserve System
Roosevelt however was also hedging his bets for the worse if the US was forced into war. He ordered his Secretary of War George Cortelyou, Secretary of Navy Charles J Bonaparte, with the senior flag officers of both the Army and Navy to start to draw up plans for an invasion of the Dominion Canada, the Caribbean, and Imperial Federation of Australia and New Zealand[1]. To say that was bold was an understatement. Both Canada and the IFANZ had entered the war against the Central Powers. But the US was already thin on troops and even with the build up they had only taken some of the pressures off the small army the US kept. After a few rounds of talks it was decided that Canada and the Caribbean would take priory over the IFANZ in the event of the US being driven into war with the Entente.
At the same time, Roosevelt order Secretary of State Elihu Root to start working on drafting on a note to be passed to Whitehall in the event the US was forced into a war with the Central Powers. The US wanted nothing to do with Africa which besides the sole German colony in China was the only place Germany held territory outside of Europe. And said German colony in China was being attacked by the Japanese and the Japanese were unlikely to give it up. He told Root to explain it in this note that the US would not committed its army to Europe without territorial cession by the British elsewhere in the world. After talking with Root it was decided that what they would hint at to the British these territorial cessions would need to be the Sandwich Islands, the British Virgin Islands, Bermuda, Machias Seal Island, North Rock, and finally surrendering the Alaskan-Canadian Border Dispute[2] with the American version of the border being the accepted border.
[1] ITL because of the long shadow the US currently cast over the SW Pacific, Australia and New Zealand merged into a single nation in 1899.
[2] Because of the piss poor relations between London and Washington this hasn’t been put to bed yet.
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I can't see why the US would think it would go in on the side of the Entente rather than the Central Powers, if at all. This last post makes it clear the US doesn't like the Germans but likes the UK much less. OTL some of the big reasons the USA went to war with Germany were the huge loans the made to UK/France (some to Germany but way less), and the U-boat situation. here any and all loans are secured, so win or lose the US banks get their money. If the British enforce the sort of blockade they did OTL, I doubt the USA would stand for it and the RN blockaded Germany well before the U-boats were operating much outside of close to the UK. Also, of course, there will be no Zimmerman Telegram here.
If insurance companies were not insuring US ships going to Europe due to war risk, then stuff will have to be shipped in other bottoms. The actual number of US flag ships sunk OTL before the USA entered the war was quite small, although there were a number sunk after the unlimited submarine warfare declaration in 1917 and before the US DoW.
I'm sure the author can create something but IMHO at least at this time my best guess would be USA stays neutral, USA joins CP, USA joins Entente in that order of probability.
If insurance companies were not insuring US ships going to Europe due to war risk, then stuff will have to be shipped in other bottoms. The actual number of US flag ships sunk OTL before the USA entered the war was quite small, although there were a number sunk after the unlimited submarine warfare declaration in 1917 and before the US DoW.
I'm sure the author can create something but IMHO at least at this time my best guess would be USA stays neutral, USA joins CP, USA joins Entente in that order of probability.
As to what TR is doing is simply covering his bases. He privately wants a war with the British but he isn't going to be like FDR and try to provoke the British. However there are a lot of pieces in play at the moment and he isn't sure how the cards will fall. So he is covering his bases and have plans for whatever might happen through how unlikely