Bush Looks Weakened, Democrats Poised for Control
September 16, 2002
“Although President Bush began 2002 fresh off first-year momentum, legislative achievements, and a stable global stage, he seems to have found himself in a starkly different situation with the midterm elections just over a month away. His ties to the bankrupt energy company Enron has left his credibility as president damaged on top of his razor-thin victory over Democratic nominee Al Gore. By the end of spring, some rogue Democrats even threatened impeachment.
But the greatest mistake Bush ever made was making Social Security reform an issue ahead of the midterms. As a push for changes to the long-running program began in earnest in summer, Democratic candidates running for reelection and to unseat Republicans went on the attack, asserting that President Bush and his congressional allies wanted to "put Grandma on the street." The entire ordeal, combined with ongoing Enron attacks and economic recession pushed Bush's approval rating down below 50% by the end of August. As we know, entitlement reform never came up for a vote in the House. Efforts to ban partial-birth abortion suffered the same fate as other domestic priorities, to the chagrin of social conservatives in Congress such as Rick Santorum (R-PA).
In fact, the only domestic achievement made by Bush this year was not even one of his priorities, but instead was the product of his former presidential primary rival, Senator John McCain (R-AZ). The Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act, otherwise known as McCain-Feingold, was signed into law partially to avoid confirming corruption allegations despite the President himself not taking a stance for or against. Immigration reform remains on the table, with the most recent polls showing that majorities of both parties would support a path to citizenship and increased border security. However, it is yet to be seen that much will come of it until after the midterms.
Finally, the President has also been faced with attacks relating to his foreign policy. Former President Bill Clinton, when asked last month about his thoughts on the new administration, voiced concern over Bush's perceived willingness to withdraw the United States from the rest of the world. Examples of this, he said, were ending American participation in the Kyoto Protocol global treaty, pulling out of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty with Russia in June, and also ending the nuclear reduction treaty with North Korea that summer after increased tensions in Asia, dating back to the previous year.
All of this in mind, it is hard to view President Bush's second year as much of a success. As recent political cartoons have illustrated, his pretzel incident last January appears to have become a metaphor for his quagmire so soon into his presidency. Unless Bush makes adjustments to his policies at home and abroad, it is far-fetched that his party will retain control of the White House, let alone Congress."
-- A political op-ed for The New York Times