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Let me propose to you a scenario.

It's the start of the Twentieth Century and Britain fights the Second Boer War, which goes slightly better (insert previous POD which isn't important ATM). As a consequence Britiain's confidence in her own ability isn't quite as strongly shattered- and therefore she maintains her splendid isolation.

Let's factor in a tenser French-Britain relationship, let's look to Fashoda, and a German foreign policy where the emperor stays out of it significantly, so no stupid newspaper interview for example. Perhaps even a de-facto naval agreement?

So we're talking no Entente-cordiale or Anglo-Japanese treaty. Instead Britain plays the Germans and French against each other, by threatening both sides with taking the other's side if they cross her. Now minimize the butterflies and fast forward 15 years to the start of WWI (yeah I know things are different but the cause could be anything, both were itching for a fight).

So Britain remains aloft as France and Germany pounds each other on the Western front which I propose will be long and drawn out. We probably have a significantly different German plan that doesn’t involve Belgium; maybe an Eastern Front first strategy which forces us to consider Russia. Perhaps there would be an earlier Brest-Litovsk? This significantly strengthens France's position on the Western front but she obviously doesn't have Britain's support. What would Italy do? Without British involvement they could declare for Germany which alters both the Western and Eastern Front dramatically.

Would Britain not sell to both sides and take out loans with both sides? Imagine the boost to Britain's manufacturing industry! The Government could put in that much needed investment to upgrade their equipment and infrastructure rather than the decaying industry of OTL. And rather than putting themselves into extensive debt; they could give themselves a head start and stabilise their finances long term being a net creditor nation.

This would, in my view, probably lead to a far longer lasting British Empire, and perhaps a more Conservative and elitist one, at least initially. Lots of the upper class will not see their children die in the first year of war; they'll be in charge in the 1930's, many well-educated individuals with bright ideas and lofty goals and grand designs, while many others born with a silver spoon and with no concept of the reality of the world; interesting eh? And what will a stronger more competitive British Industrial sector mean for the workers movements and emigration?

Whoever wins WWI, they will be in serious debt to Britain and suffering the effects of a long term war of attrition. Do we think it is France or Germany? I'd lean to Germany considering there is no North Sea blockade; indeed Britain will sell them everything. And if so, how long would it take them to recover and would they eventually catch up and overtake a stronger Britain? And what would happen to America considering there is very little scope for American involvement?

What do you think? Am I right; would Britain have been far better off out of it? Or is the power of one nation receives by dominating the continent more than any advantage Britain could receive? And do we have to consider long term and short term here?
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