Would something like this butterfly away the union with castille and getting bogged down with european wars and giving full focus to expanding and reforming the overseas empire?
Whats their relation with CA to they consider them mearly a ally vs the north african moors and a buffer state vs france?
By messing the balance of power in iberia there will be a new political land scape in europe what will it look like?
Would something like this butterfly away the union with castille and getting bogged down with european wars and giving full focus to expanding and reforming the overseas empire?
Whats their relation with CA to they consider them mearly a ally vs the north african moors and a buffer state vs france?
By messing the balance of power in iberia there will be a new political land scape in europe what will it look like?
If the government that takes place is indeed a kingdom, not a republic, some succession crises are bound to happen. The difference is that a foreign power is now less likely to be allowed to take the portuguesr throne without foreign intervention. Not only that but Portugal will be much better suited to participate on europeans, if necessary. However, a stronger position on the penninsula also means greater possibility of power projection over the seas and colonies, which will still be the focus of portuguese policy in this ATL.
A weaker castille doesn't mean a pushover, client-state castille. In my opinion a castillian defeat opens room for french attempts of conquest in iberia. The targets would be castille, aragon and navarre which, depending on the POD, were already ruled by the same dinasty. With the castillians losing territory to the portuguese, and the aragonese suffering from french incursions, I believe the union between the two happens earlier than OTL.
Concerning the moors, I believe Portugal would be less interested in expansion there, as now they have, uniting with leon and galicia, more land to tax and to sustain the population. I believe the it's spanish of TTL that are going to invest heavily on conquering north africa, assuming they don't get involved on too many european conflicts.
I don't know how this going to change the european theater. If portugal has support right next home it's unlikely that they would need to reach for foreign alliances like england, unless aragon or france decide to intervene in favor of castille. Overall, portugal is still isolated from many european disputes, which means any real change would take place in Iberia. Later, on the age of discovery, portugal would interact differently and more intensely with other colonizers.