A murder in the Vatican

CalBear

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There is considerable, if circumstantial, evidence that John Paul I was poisoned. JP I was, even in his very short reign, starting to poke at things that were best left unpoked. He was very much in the reformer mode of John XXIII, perhaps even to a greater extent, and that bothers some folks. There was also a rather ugly banking scandal involving the Vatican Bank at the time which brought a second, albeit less likely, potential motive to light. In any case the speculation on the possibility of the death being "unnatural" was very pronounced in some quarters.

There is no real evidence, the "no autopsy" rule is very real, and Vatican City is a separate nation-state so no one was going to push the issue from outside, but at the time there was considerable discussion on the issue. Some of it even made its way into popular culture in the rather disappointing Godfather III movie.

In any case, if true, such an assassination would only be the latest in a fairly long line of papal murders. The history of the Holy See is rather bloody on many levels.
 
There is considerable, if circumstantial, evidence that John Paul I was poisoned. JP I was, even in his very short reign, starting to poke at things that were best left unpoked. He was very much in the reformer mode of John XXIII, perhaps even to a greater extent, and that bothers some folks. There was also a rather ugly banking scandal involving the Vatican Bank at the time which brought a second, albeit less likely, potential motive to light. In any case the speculation on the possibility of the death being "unnatural" was very pronounced in some quarters.

There is no real evidence, the "no autopsy" rule is very real, and Vatican City is a separate nation-state so no one was going to push the issue from outside, but at the time there was considerable discussion on the issue. Some of it even made its way into popular culture in the rather disappointing Godfather III movie.

In any case, if true, such an assassination would only be the latest in a fairly long line of papal murders. The history of the Holy See is rather bloody on many levels.

Propably we will never know if John-Paul I was murdered or not... The sure thing is that there would be speculations for that... the tragic death of John-Paul II and the short reign of Leo XIV (aka Benelli) along with the speculations about John-Paul's I death would fuel more the Terror in Vatican...
I dont know Papa Ratzinger and Siri could have handled all these rumours and the terror around Vatican... And the rapid succession of Popes would have paralysed the Church...
 
St John Paul the Martyr

In the discussion of liberal/progressive in the Church there are at least 4 dimensions: political, theological, cultural and disciplinary

The consternation in the Church over having a rapid turnover in popes is being overstated and the 800# gorilla is being ignored. John Paul II was martyred in a very obvious fashion. This is going to have a huge impact. The fact that JP I have been poisoned leading to an erroneous suspicion that Benelli (whatever he calls himself) was likewise killed by some undetectable KGB superposion is going to shake up the political liberalism that was dominating the Catholic clergy in all issues that didn't involve sex. This was the era of Reaganism. There is going to be a renaissance of anticommunism inside the Church that is going to make a lot of people uncomfortable.

Getting back to the 4 dimensions Benelli would his most "conservative" on the discipline axis where Pope Paul had gone completely limp and JP II had tightened the wheel only one notch. Benelli would tighten it 2 notches more driving Lefebvre and Kung from the Church completely.

If Ratzinger then emerges his main use for Siri would be to use him to get Lefebvre back into the Church as Siri and Lefebvre were friends. But I don't see this as working as Lefebvre regarded Ratzinger as a Modernist wearin camouflage. Instead I see the SSPX moving towards an implicit sedevacantism probably preventing the SSPV internal schism.

Once it is clear that reconciling Lefebvre is hopeless Ratzinger will have little use for Siri. The conservative wing of New Theology (Ratzinger) and Old Theology (Siri) do not care much for each other and besides Siri is getting long in the tooth. Ratzinger would never consider a new Church council. As for the liturgy he would move towards "reform of the reform". Getting back to the political it might be interesting how a German Pope would respond to the fall of the Berlin Wall.

Oh and we would have St. John Paul the Martyr canonized by now.
 
If Cardinal Siri finds out that Papa Ratzinger is no use for him he could influence the Cardinals to press the Pope in calling a new Council in order to reverse some of Vatican II decisions and lure Lefebvre, SSPX and SSPV back to Catholic Church by eliminating the main factor that separated them...
 
This was the era of Reaganism. There is going to be a renaissance of anticommunism inside the Church that is going to make a lot of people uncomfortable.

Getting back to the political it might be interesting how a German Pope would respond to the fall of the Berlin Wall.

OTL Did Cardinal Ratzinger ever make any explicit comments about the disintegration of the DDR, the fall of the Berlin Wall, and German reunification? I've never heard anything about Ratzinger commenting on European politics. I mean, as JP II's understudy he must have had some knowledge of JP's anticommunist activities outside of the regular media milleu.
 
OTL Did Cardinal Ratzinger ever make any explicit comments about the disintegration of the DDR, the fall of the Berlin Wall, and German reunification? I've never heard anything about Ratzinger commenting on European politics. I mean, as JP II's understudy he must have had some knowledge of JP's anticommunist activities outside of the regular media milleu.

Actually during Ratzinger's tenure as a Prefect of the Congregation of the Doctrine of Faith he opposed the liberation theology and took some disciplinary measures against its priests... Maybe he would continue his predecessor's anticommunism but in a milder way (the memory of John-Paul's I short reign and John-Paul's II tragic death were still vivid)...
 
If Siri and Ratzinger deadlock the Conclave after Pope Benelli's death how possible it is that Cardinal Colombo reemerges as a compromise candidate? (he had obtained sufficient votes in the 1978 Conclave but he stated that he would declined the tiara if elected...)
Maybe after such a rapid succession of Popes he would have changed his mind and accepted... in OTL he lived till 1992...
 
I think we would have had some interesting effects on Italian politics ...

Indeed... Italian Communist Party would go down the drain if somenone links the deaths of Popes with a communist plot... Italy would be governed by right wings parties till mid 90s i guess...
 
Indeed... Italian Communist Party would go down the drain if somenone links the deaths of Popes with a communist plot... Italy would be governed by right wings parties till mid 90s i guess...

Indeed ... I don't think we would see the Italian Social Movement entering government, but this would backfire very badly. If the following uber-anticommunist paranoia spreads, we might see even the Socialists kicked out of the Government, with the small Italian Republican Party embracing Reaganism and the Christian Democrats leading increasingly atlantist and conservative governments.

If this butterflies away the death in a car crash of the Vallee d'Aoste autonomist leader, he might well create a Northern Regionalist Party similar to the German CSU, and allied with Christian Democracy, syphoning away "moderate communist" vote like the Northern League of today ... thus eliminating the need for a left-wing partner like the Italian Socialist Party.

This could also speed up the evolution of at least a part of the neofascists towards conservatism, marginalizing the "revolutionary elements" to create a "National Right" party which could also serve as a government partner.

On the other hand, the leftist opposition would be totally jeopardized, with Communists in deep crisis and Craxi's Socialists still politically quite far from their possible partners.

Or, and this would be even more interesting, the Communists could speed up their separation from Moscow and abandon the Eastern Bloc even before the fall of Berlin's Wall, then joining the Christian Democracy as junior partners in a three way "National Unity" coalition with the Republicans, at least until authoritharian-but-progressive Popes are in power (until 1983, when Benelli dies, or until 1992 or so if Ratzinger isn't elected and the Archbishop of Milan comes to power).

Then, as Ratzinger gains power, the tide would shift towards the right, with Andreotti defeating De Mita and going towards a rightists alliance with the National Right, or the Northern League, and what remains of the Liberals.

This would leave the left in a even worse situation, as the former Communists would still be met with coldness and bitterness, as former allies of the Christian Democrats. We might see the birth of two equally pathetic opposition groups, a Lib-Lab one with Socialists, Greens and Radicals, and another one with former communists and the former Christian Democrats of The Web (Leoluca Orlando), which could eventually ally.

What about Tangentopoli (Bribesville) and the Mafia scandals of the Nineties ? Would they still happen ?

And Berlusconi ? Can you imagine an Italian media scenery where he is the voice of the leftists opposition ? :D
 
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Ok, in 1981 Arnaldo Forlani was President of the Council with a DC-PSI-PRI-PSDI alliance. He was forced to resign for the P-2 scandal after a Communist media campaign . He was also ousted, a year later, from the Christian Democracy's leadership as his former supporter Amintore Fanfani, leftwing but also anticommunist and a "man of order", shifted his support to Ciriaco De Mita.

With such a weakened PCI, we might well see Forlani's government surviving and the conservatives still leading the Christian Democrats in the first part of the Eighties ... I'll check out Giorgio Galli "History of Italian Political Parties" for some additional infos ...
 
In 1981 the italian political spectrum was quite tense:

-There were talks of a lib-lab alternative to both the Christian Democrats and the Communists, between Socialists, Socialdemocrats, Radicals. Craxi even menaced a government crisis.

-The Historical Compromise between Commies and CDs had just failed, but Spadolini and Visentini, two prominent members of the liberal Italian Republican Party, called for a "national government of the honests".

- DC appeared as a somewhat crumbling party, especially under "the wererabbit" Arnaldo Forlani, who admittedly wasn't the best possibile media-man.

- Terrorism, both fascist and far-left communist, was still present, although declining.

-Giovanni Marcora, a charismatic industrialist and prominent member of the leftwing area of the Christian Democracy, tried to rally Big Business around the dynamic platform of then little-known Ciriaco De Mita.

-Conservative leaders Andreotti and Fanfani shifted to De Mita's side after a while, allowing him a good victory over Forlani.

-Later in the summer, Craxi, Andreotti and Forlani allied against De Mita's rise and helped the birth of "Pentapartito", enlarging the center-left coalition to the Italian Liberal Party of Valerio Zanone and supporting the Republican Spadolini as the first non Christian-Democrat Prime Minister of the Italian Republic.

- 1982 Elections were quite relaxed, and the lack of conservative mobilization brought a disastrous defeat to the Christian Democracy, which paradoxically solified De Mita's power.

Let's imagine that JP II dies. At this point, there are several talks of a Soviet involvement in the thing, and then the critics of the Italian Communists over the P-2 Lodge scandal are somewhat silenced as public attention goes towards the great killing. Forlani survives summer with his government, and wins a slim victory at his Party Congress thanks to the votes of a terrified Fanfani.
Forlani secretly allies with Andreotti, and agrees with De Mita for a "united management of the Party" : De Mita's group will be represented by his trusted Marcora and by Antonio Gava, a former supporter of Forlani which had defected from his group and was on good terms with Andreotti.

At this point, Forlani simply follows Andreotti's tactics : as the political debate is hysterical over the kidnapping of a judge, with Socialists and Radicals calling for mediation and the Communists, already embarassed over the death of the Pope, speaking instead for "resolve and firmness", he opens a government crisis.

When President Pertini (Socialist) starts consultations over the formation of a new government, the Christian Democracy, supported by the new Pope Benelli, calls for a "National Unity Government" led by Visentini. The Socialists and Socialdemocrats join opposition, while the Communists, eager for some legitimacy, announce their support without entering the Government.

More follows ... :) (this could become an interesting timeline ... ! )
 
When President Pertini (Socialist) starts consultations over the formation of a new government, the Christian Democracy, supported by the new Pope Benelli, calls for a "National Unity Government" led by Visentini. The Socialists and Socialdemocrats join opposition, while the Communists, eager for some legitimacy, announce their support without entering the Government.

More follows ... :) (this could become an interesting timeline ... ! )

Benelli was always sick with heart disease and he didnt knew it... in OTL he died in 1982... If he is elected Pope i believe that he would die too soon after his election (the burden of Papacy would have put pressure into his already weakened heart...) and when he does conspiracy theorists would have terrorised the people with the allegedly "kill the Pope" secret plans...
 
Benelli was always sick with heart disease and he didnt knew it... in OTL he died in 1982... If he is elected Pope i believe that he would die too soon after his election (the burden of Papacy would have put pressure into his already weakened heart...) and when he does conspiracy theorists would have terrorised the people with the allegedly "kill the Pope" secret plans...

Well, if it happened in 1982, he would have died just around these events ... maybe a little after ...

Forlani's plan would be to exhaust the Communists by supporting an unpopular government called to pass emergency security measures and drastic economic reforms ... in a few years, he would drop them : the aim was building back a Centrist (DC-PRI-PLI ) majority, maybe with support from a re-invigorated Democrazia Nazionale (a short-lived splinter of the Italian Social Movement, "created" by Andreotti and that, properly boosted first by Christian Democratic "support vote" and then by the anticommunist paranoia, could in this scenery be the fourth party of a new center-right coalition).

Marcora too died shortly after these events, a fast-spreading cancer killed him in 1983. This would severely weaken the Christian leftists' position in both Government and the Party, allowing Forlani and Andreotti enough control to follow their conservative agenda ...

Something even more interesting: international repercussions of such an act ?!
 
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