In 1981 the italian political spectrum was quite tense:
-There were talks of a lib-lab alternative to both the Christian Democrats and the Communists, between Socialists, Socialdemocrats, Radicals. Craxi even menaced a government crisis.
-The Historical Compromise between Commies and CDs had just failed, but Spadolini and Visentini, two prominent members of the liberal Italian Republican Party, called for a "national government of the honests".
- DC appeared as a somewhat crumbling party, especially under "the wererabbit" Arnaldo Forlani, who admittedly wasn't the best possibile media-man.
- Terrorism, both fascist and far-left communist, was still present, although declining.
-Giovanni Marcora, a charismatic industrialist and prominent member of the leftwing area of the Christian Democracy, tried to rally Big Business around the dynamic platform of then little-known Ciriaco De Mita.
-Conservative leaders Andreotti and Fanfani shifted to De Mita's side after a while, allowing him a good victory over Forlani.
-Later in the summer, Craxi, Andreotti and Forlani allied against De Mita's rise and helped the birth of "Pentapartito", enlarging the center-left coalition to the Italian Liberal Party of Valerio Zanone and supporting the Republican Spadolini as the first non Christian-Democrat Prime Minister of the Italian Republic.
- 1982 Elections were quite relaxed, and the lack of conservative mobilization brought a disastrous defeat to the Christian Democracy, which paradoxically solified De Mita's power.
Let's imagine that JP II dies. At this point, there are several talks of a Soviet involvement in the thing, and then the critics of the Italian Communists over the P-2 Lodge scandal are somewhat silenced as public attention goes towards the great killing. Forlani survives summer with his government, and wins a slim victory at his Party Congress thanks to the votes of a terrified Fanfani.
Forlani secretly allies with Andreotti, and agrees with De Mita for a "united management of the Party" : De Mita's group will be represented by his trusted Marcora and by Antonio Gava, a former supporter of Forlani which had defected from his group and was on good terms with Andreotti.
At this point, Forlani simply follows Andreotti's tactics : as the political debate is hysterical over the kidnapping of a judge, with Socialists and Radicals calling for mediation and the Communists, already embarassed over the death of the Pope, speaking instead for "resolve and firmness", he opens a government crisis.
When President Pertini (Socialist) starts consultations over the formation of a new government, the Christian Democracy, supported by the new Pope Benelli, calls for a "National Unity Government" led by Visentini. The Socialists and Socialdemocrats join opposition, while the Communists, eager for some legitimacy, announce their support without entering the Government.
More follows ...

(this could become an interesting timeline ... ! )