This idea is probably crazy and will most likely be shot down by a lot of folks, but I thought I should give it a shot anyway.
Basically, it revolves around a setting in which the allies are far more aggressive in late 1942. This change of attitude is the first requirement. Don’t know what command changes would need to take place, but let’s assume they do.
Secondly, a deal with (at least parts of) the Vichy government has to be reached (without the naxis finding out in time), and De Gaulle completely ditched.
Thirdly, better estimates/and or assumptions regarding Rommel’s fuel situation at El Alemain need to take place, and of the situation in general (seriously, Franco is not going to join the axis under those conditions and close the straights and the 130 serviceable bombers in Sicily are not going to pose an insurmountable threat).
With that out of the way, I was thinking of something along these lines:
Instead of the OTL attack on El Alemain and operation Torch, the allies decide on a far more ambitious undertaking, with full knowledge of their enemies relative weakness in the Mediterranean Sea.
1. Firstly, US ships sail into Toulon. There, they assist the French with their against-the-clock preparations to both evacuate most of their 40k infantry and fleet. Special forces units are sent to blow up bridges across the Rhone (in conjunction with local authorities), thus delaying the arrival of 7th Panzer for a crucial amount of time, enough for the hasty evacuation to be a success.
2. US troops (around 1 infantry regiment with armour and arty support) are also sent to occupy Corsica, and are bolstered by the Vichy infantry evacuated from the mainland. OTL, the Italians landed a division on Corsica after Torch. Here, that force should stand no chance should they try.
3. British troops land in Sardinia. The axis will probably manage to reinforce the island and prevent it from falling instantly, but within 1-2 months those forces will probably be cut off and destroyed, since the island is far more isolated than Sicily.
4. In North Africa, Allied troops land in Tunisia only, about one day after the other landings. The local governor would probably welcome them, especially if so instructed and given no alternative. From there, an armoured column is sent racing south, where it puts Tripoli and its garrison under a loose siege. They don’t have to take it themselves, just prevent any significant amount of trucks carrying supplies from leaving due east. This should cripple Rommel’s already horrible supply situation. The 130 bombers in Italy will cause some damage to the fleet, and the couple of submarines in the area might sink a ship or two, but it’s nothing the Allies can’t stomach.
5. At this point, Panzerarmee Afrika is in serious trouble. They don’t have the fuel to retreat east with all units at once (hell, they were forced to station their tanks close to the front because of this). They’re lucky if they get even enough water even at this point. There is also no political will to enable a retreat. Since being starved of supplies while doing nothing is not a viable alternative, what will most likely happen is that a scratch force consisting no more than a third of the tanks is sent east, thus burning most of fuel reserves. Once they’re gone, Monty strikes. In a couple of days the line is breached and the axis has no more reserves to plug the gaps. Result: a lot of the German and Italian units are trapped and surrender.
6. It’s unlikely the axis relief force manages to get to Tripoli in time (the sheer distance they would have to cross is staggering). This results in them being forced into defending a perimeter centered around Benghazi and Tobruk, which will be almost impossible to supply. Given Hitler’s attitude OTL, he’ll probably try to reinforce the area in vain, although he’ll lose far fewer men compared to OTL Tunisia for the simple fact that he won’t have neither the means nor the time to ship them all to that corner of Africa (Of course, the smart thing to do would be to evacuate everyone ASAP, which is a possibility, although a slim one)
7. The rest of Vichy North Africa should probably join the Allies around this time without even a shot being fired, especially if Darlan tells them to and the allies offer them strong guarantees.
8. Mussolini’s political situation is by now in dire straits. His armies in Africa and Russia have been annihilated, his African empire is gone, he probably also lost a big naval battle or two around Corsica/Sardinia, allied bombers are being felt over the mainland, Germany is looking like it will lose in the east following Stalingrad and even Italian home soil, Sardinia, has been lost. Most of the conditions for his ousting are in place.
9. Should Benny indeed be ousted and the new government want to deal with Roosevelt and Churchill, the Allies are now in an excellent position to capitalize on the Italian defection. If the Germans send units into northern Italy, than an allied invasion coordinated with the Italians stands to gain everything south of the OTL Gustav line, probably a little less. If they don’t, and Italian units block the Alpine passes in time, most of northern Italy could be lost as well. Rhodes and other Aegean islands have a good shot at falling to the allies too if they act fast and decisive enough, since the initial German garrisons were heavily outnumbered by Italian ones.
Well, this is it. While I can’t identify the actual exact POD(s) needed for this, the actual operations seem doable to me. What do you guys think ?