Despite US wishes, there were no fight in the Vichy French. You need to adress this problem before anything else.
I specifically stated in the original post that I have no idea what kind of political POD(s) are needed for this to work, nor do I care (although if someone has any ideas in this area, he's more than welcome to share them). This isn't a TL or anything, just a thought experiment.
Regarding their willingness to fight bloody battles: they don't have to. They just have to not get in the way and allow allied forces to use Tunisia as a springboard into Lybia and the cutting off of Rommel's supplies. In Corsica, they just have to sit tight and look scary. The Italians are in no position to launch any kind of sustained naval invasion, and, given their OTL unwillingness to risk their battleships, they probably won't either.
This scenario basically assumes any U-boats near southern France and whatever Italian forces are available sit in their butts and no nothing at all.
this is according to wiki:
The
Second Battle of El Alamein prompted a concentration of U-boats in the western Mediterranean in anticipation of Allied amphibious invasion. Five U-boats made contact with
Operation Torch convoys, and two
wolfpacks assembled near the invasion points.
U-73,
U-81,
U-458,
U-565,
U-593,
U-595,
U-605 and
U-617 assembled around
Oran as
Gruppe Delphin (Dolphin); while
U-77,
U-205,
U-331,
U-431,
U-561 and
U-660 assembled around
Algiers as
Gruppe Hai (Shark). Five U-boats were sunk opposing the invasion.
[39]
Going by the article, they managed to sink 85k tons of shipping untill the end of the year, with most of that tonnage coming from 3-4 bigger transports.
Here, however, Second El Alemain is delayed, and the U-Boats are send only later, as a reaction instead of in anticipation.
Going by how they fared in the Med against shipping or near Casablanca, I'm inclined to say that the impact of U-Boats will be marginal.
This also assumes that the Luftwaffe does precisely nothing against the Allied fleed setting off Toulon.
The LW has a grand total of 130 serviceable bombers based in Italy and Greece at this time.
How on earth do they stop (instead of just harras) the landings ?
Mind you, they will no doubt bomb Toulon, and might even sink a big ship or two docked there. I'm skeptical however that they'll send everyone to Davy Jones.
They might use planes sationed in northern France, of which I don't know how many they have. However, again, it will be some time untill they organize the whole thing, giving the allies precious time. No doubt, they will cause damage. Will it be THAt severe, though ? Weren't most of those planes used for area night-bombing of british cities, not precision naval strikes ?
The Allies have enough logistics to move 107K of their own troops. How many thousands of French troops are they picking up in the process of this mission to France? They can't allow warships to dock and pick people up, that would make perfect stationary targets for Luftwaffe dive bombers.
Well, I was thinking that a lot of those Frenchmen would simply board their own (war)ships already docked there. Packed with men, the French warships are in no condition to engage an enemy fleet, but they don't have to either.
Alternatively, the allies would bring along some transports. Assuming the French crammed half the infantry on their own ships, you would need 40 of the small-ish Liberty ships to fit the rest. Maybe 30, if you use up space and don't mind the conditions on a short trip. Using bigger troop transport ships, that number could probably be halved. You can also transfer people on other ships once you're out at sea and safe.
Do the allies have, say, 20 Liberty ships and 5 bigger troop transports to spare (or any combination thereof) at this stage ? I honestly don't know, but I'd guess they do.
This also assumes that German ground forces in France, along with any Vichy units that wouldn't support the allies will basically sit on their butts and not move an inch when the allies are coming.
Well, the Germans are coming. However, given their OTL speed, and with the allies/French sabotaging the rivers across the Rhone, they won't make it to Toulon in time.
This also places the allied fleet off Toulon hundreds of miles out of range of any fighter cover not coming off carriers, of which the allies aren't going to have a lot of. Maybe 100 or so fighters vs however many hundreds of German and Italian fighters can be thrown at the carriers, not counting German bombers that will kill ships.
By the time the axis musteres up and organizes hundreds of bombers in the area, the fleet will have been long gone.
Comparing Luftwaffe effectiveness in OTL at Salerno and Anzio to this proposal is weak as hell also. OTL by 1943 the LW had been ground down quite a bit by several years of fighting, while US and British forces had more experienced pilots, and had aircraft that where equal and in some cases superior to what the Germans had.
That and in OTL at Salerno the allies had hundreds of fighters and bombers stationed very close by on Sicily, and by the time of Anzio the allies also had large numbers of aircraft stationed on various airfields throughout southern Italy
Like I said before, the allies can station fighters near Tunis and Byzerta, from where it's an equal distance to Calgiari compared to axis airfields in Sicilly. They can also station fighters on captured airfields on Sardinia itself, or on Corsica. This will only matter in the closing stages of the battle for Sardinia though.
Remeber, however, that the axis too will be in the same situation, having to supply and reinforce an island that isn't exactly close to their ports. They too will suffer interdiction form the allies.
.
The idea of loading mostly green Allied troops onto some ships and sending them to fight Germans without heavy equipment, air superiority and above all trustworthy allies is sending them to death or a POW camp.
The only Germans they would be actually fighting would be the small garrison of Tripoli for control of its surrounding area, and, only much later, units the Germans would rush to Sardinia.
I have my doubts that the Germans will be able to send so much stuff to Sardinia weeks after the landings in time to push the allies back into the sea before even more allied troops arrive.
I'm imagining a stalemate of some sort with the allies controlling between ne and two thirds of the island before the Germans finally decide to quit when their supply situation becomes untenable, just like on Sicilly OTL.
However, I'm more than willing to change my mind.
It looks like no one is going along with this Magnum
Yeah, so I've seen. Therefor, this is probably the last post I'll make regarding this. I was bored. And, for the most part, it was fun to write.