A More Realistic Sealion Outcome

Markus

Banned
Redbeard

The RN would probably suffer heavy losses in a the defeat of a Sealion invasion. However this would be virtually all cruisers and destroyers and the like.

I second that. The RN´s plans called for the use of DDs and CLs to intercept the brages and shell the beaches. The heavies would have provided "distant" cover. Furthermore subs will be of little use since the targets are fast warships(30knt+). And Germany did not have that many subs to being with, losses of class VII subs will hurt the german ability to interdict merchants ships very hard.
 
If the RN enters the Channel then the battles will be fought tooth and nail. Losses for both sides will be heavy, the question then becomes "Can the UK make good the losses in time?"

The Kreigsmarine was still having torpedo troubles in 1940 but by this point might have fixed the problem. Subs will keep the bigger units at bay and might get a few cruisers but will be of little use against the RN Destroyers and useless against anything smaller. And the RN will be throwing in everything that can carry a gun to try and destroy the German troops before they land.

As I said before, my understanding is that there were few suitable beaches for landing, meaning that forces didn't have to be spread as thin.

But let's look at this from the other end, D Day. Think of the massive preparations made for it that wouldn't have been available to Hitler:

1) The deception campaign to make Calais look like the focal point of the invasion, tying up troops.
2) Massive bombing of railways and bridges prior to D Day.
3) The invasion force had total naval and airpower superiority.
4) Hitler sleeping in late, immboilizing the mobile reserve until it was too late.

On the other hand once the Germans got ashore there would be little to stop them, unlike the Allies who had to face many more troops. Of course, the populace of the UK had a lot of things they could do to slow up any invasion force.
 

Markus

Banned
And the RN will be throwing in everything that can carry a gun to try and destroy the German troops before they land.

No they won´t. They had plans in OTL . Part of the plan was to cut off the invaders from resupply and they correctly figured out some light cruisers and destroyers would do just fine. Sending everything that was armed and swam was never planned, at least not on the British side.
 
No they won´t. They had plans in OTL . Part of the plan was to cut off the invaders from resupply and they correctly figured out some light cruisers and destroyers would do just fine. Sending everything that was armed and swam was never planned, at least not on the British side.

True, but everything I've read (plus talking to a few RN officers over the years) said that destroying the invasion fleet in the Channel was _the_ priority. If it looked like anything was going to get anywhere near the landing beaches you can bet an all-out effort would be made to keep that from happening regardless of the cost, planned or not.
 
True, but everything I've read (plus talking to a few RN officers over the years) said that destroying the invasion fleet in the Channel was _the_ priority. If it looked like anything was going to get anywhere near the landing beaches you can bet an all-out effort would be made to keep that from happening regardless of the cost, planned or not.

Not necessarily. If its only a small trickle, no need, the Army and RAF will more than suffice to destroy them on the beaches. Additionally, there wouldn't be time to bring more of the RN down.
 
On the other hand once the Germans got ashore there would be little to stop them, unlike the Allies who had to face many more troops. Of course, the populace of the UK had a lot of things they could do to slow up any invasion force.
True under two circumstances:
1. The Germans secure a major harbour largely intact; ship in multiple Panzer divisions and launch a blitzkrieg.
2. Several German Panzer divisions and substantial supply dumps materialise out of nowhere in southern England.

If, in more realistic circumstances, the Germans end up landing and supplying the invasion force across the beaches and via minor ports it's a completely different matter... without the artificial harbours; specialised landing craft and landing ships used by the allies during Normandy unloading supplies, fuel and munitions will be extremely slow and the delivery of armour and artillary will be highly limited. In which case it ends up an infantry slug-match: even taking the worst case the British and Domion forces win by sheer weight of numbers (300,000 plus homeguard vs 100,000 in the Germans' planned first wave).
 
True, but everything I've read (plus talking to a few RN officers over the years) said that destroying the invasion fleet in the Channel was _the_ priority. If it looked like anything was going to get anywhere near the landing beaches you can bet an all-out effort would be made to keep that from happening regardless of the cost, planned or not.

yes. The RAF and the Royal Navy will attempt to (and succeed in) crushing the beachheads, whose destruction is the priority. On the same note, I can think of several cases where being the priority does not necessitate that every avalible gun be thrown at the target. In world war One (1914 to be precise), taking Paris was the priority for the Germans, but many divisions were lost in diversions to the east, nancy, or reducing belgian fortresses. In World War Two, taking Denmark during operation weserbung could be considered the priority in the long term, but only one or two divisions were actually committed. The war in the desert could have turned vital for either side, but I cannot describe either montgomery or rommel as having ever posessed every avalible gun. The fact is, the British had, in the vicinity of the landing, 5 battleships to match the Scharnhorst and Gneisnau, at least 11 cruisers to face 1 or 2 german ones, and innumerable destroyers. You can point out the U-boats, but in the english channel, I cannot see them (even with minefields) being enough to stop actual warships which will only care about them long enough to sink them. The royal navy can reduce the kriegsmarine to bruning hulks without commiting all of it's avalible forces.

And if they land (asb) and the royal navy manages to exterminate itself in the process (wtf? is a better description), the British army can simply destroy the germans through numbers (that, and the fact that the landing forces have no heavy equipment). Honestly, any form of Sealion will result in the following:

Germany: The Kriegsmarine crushed, the Luftwaffe recieves a bloody nose, a few heer divisions are gone

United Kingdom: The Royal navy incurs some losses, but those are easily offset by new construction (and the lack of any remaining German opponent), the RAF takes a beating while inflicting superior losses on the Luftwaffe, and the local land forces easily defeat the invasion.
 
The Channel is shallow. A sub in the Channel is a very slow torpedo boat with a reasonably good deck gun. Maybe you could use it for firesupport for the landing?
If you sink a battleship in the Channel, it just becomes an offshore coastal artillary platform.
 
One thing we have to remember is that we have hindsight that Sealion was doomed from the beginning.

Many Brits I've talked to said 1940 was the low point of national morale. The Luftwaffe was seemingly bombing at will and the invasion was expected any day. And almost everybody believed it had an excellent chance of succeeding as the Heer seemed invincible up to this point.
 
One thing we have to remember is that we have hindsight that Sealion was doomed from the beginning.

Many Brits I've talked to said 1940 was the low point of national morale. The Luftwaffe was seemingly bombing at will and the invasion was expected any day. And almost everybody believed it had an excellent chance of succeeding as the Heer seemed invincible up to this point.

elf177

That is a good point. A few months back there was a discussion on whether a German landing might manage to panic Britain into collapse. I was one of those who, while I thought it unlikely to work, might actually occur. Although I think majority option was that there was no chance of it working at all, which I thought rather extreme.

Steve
 
One thing we have to remember is that we have hindsight that Sealion was doomed from the beginning.

Many Brits I've talked to said 1940 was the low point of national morale. The Luftwaffe was seemingly bombing at will and the invasion was expected any day. And almost everybody believed it had an excellent chance of succeeding as the Heer seemed invincible up to this point.

It really depends on what happens in the first few days. Remember, at this time, Churchill is declaring "We will fight them on the beaches" and "this was their finest our". Britain is only now really gearing up for a real war, yet morale is low. That said, he managed to spin dunkirk as a victory. If the germans land and secure a reasonable foothold for more then a few days, then british resistence and morale will plummet. There are enough people like Churchill that some level of war may continue, but Halifax may return and seek some form of peace. However, if the beachhead is confined and crushed or isolated and blockaded within the first few days, then this will give the british possibly the highest morale achieved during the war.

In conclusion, a German landing could concievably lead to a british morale collapse. the problem is, for that feeling to set in, you need for the British to have no hope of defeating the germans easily avalible. The fact is, the Royal Navy and RAF will have a cakewalk, between the pitiful planns for the German landings, the invasion barges, the weak Kriegsmarine, and a Luftwaffe forced to serve as both artillery for the invasion and in an anti-shipping role with near total effectivness at the edge of it's range despite lacking the planes to do so. And the regular, commonwealth, and territorial army forces nearby will crush the landing if it does get ashore.

Hitler was a gambler. That can be seen in is move into the Rhineland, Anchluss, Czechloslovakia, poland, Fall Gelb, Barbarossa, the battle of the bulge, and other operations, not to mention the plans for sealion. The simple fact is, gambling against heavy odds eventually fails you (that's why Napoleon lost and casinos make so much money). Sealion is just going to far.
 
This is a pretty good "Sealion Fails" scenario.

Thanks, I was hoping someone would find that again.

To be honest I don't see British resistance collapsing just because some half drowned elements of the Wehrmacht stumbled ashore. Yes there was slight panic and fear amongst the general population, but what really matters was the feeling within the armed forces and the Government. With Churchill in power then we will fight, and unless the armed forces say that the fight is lost, I don't see how Halifax is going to take over.
People seem to assume that the moment a single German soldier sets foot on British soil, Halifax starts acting like a total pacifist, without any recourse to reason.
 
Thanks, I was hoping someone would find that again.

To be honest I don't see British resistance collapsing just because some half drowned elements of the Wehrmacht stumbled ashore. Yes there was slight panic and fear amongst the general population, but what really matters was the feeling within the armed forces and the Government. With Churchill in power then we will fight, and unless the armed forces say that the fight is lost, I don't see how Halifax is going to take over.
People seem to assume that the moment a single German soldier sets foot on British soil, Halifax starts acting like a total pacifist, without any recourse to reason.

Totally agree. In fact, the government pointing out how few troops made it ashore will increase morale. Only if the Germans can get a large number of troops across, get them off the beachhead and inland as well as support them will morale truly begin to fade. Any other result will prove that the Germans can be stopped.
 

HJ Tulp

Donor
Sealion fails, halfway 1941 the German war economy grinds to a half because it lacks a key component in it's logistic system.
 
Totally agree. In fact, the government pointing out how few troops made it ashore will increase morale. Only if the Germans can get a large number of troops across, get them off the beachhead and inland as well as support them will morale truly begin to fade. Any other result will prove that the Germans can be stopped.

I recommend reading this to see many of the failings in Sealion.

The point is, however, that the German plan boils down to placing several divisions in terrain with multiple obstacles they cannot cross via barges more likely to sink or miss the landing beach then anything else, without heavy equipment or armor, effectient resupply, reinforcements, or even a coherent command structure (the lack of a real plan that everybody agrees on or is even aware of is agiven), against local forces which can easily overwhelm them and which will employ every weapon possible to do that, while the navy they need to defend them dies at the hands of the Royal Navy and the Luftwaffe overstretches itself. So yes, this will prove that the Germans can be stopped. The government will not talk about how many troops make it ashore (reduces the impact of the victory). It will wait a few days, then announce that several german divisions attempted a major landing; that they were utterly vanquished; that the Kriegsmarine is a series of sinking wrecks and the Luftwaffe recieved a pasting; that Germany cannot attempt an invasion in the near or intermediate future; and that, of course, Hitler lost. he lost badly.
 
Redbeard

The RN would probably suffer heavy losses in a the defeat of a Sealion invasion. However this would be virtually all cruisers and destroyers and the like. The Germans had nothing heavier available and also such units are the best for destroying German cross-channel shipping and supplies. Furthermore the Germans would see the destruction of the bulk of the remainder of their surface navy, which would greatly reduce the threat of raids by such units.

Things could well be very tight for a while in the N Atlantic. However if the Germans don't win there quickly the RN could rely on much more new equipment more quickly than Germany. Unless Hitler has a personality transplant and forgets Barbarossa - and this isn't the ASB forum :) - Germany can't complete at sea, even with control of much of Europe.

Furthermore such a programme pre-supposes much heavier air losses for the Germans as they desperately seek to support the invasion. Also for the RAF but it has higher production and isn't going to see the same high demands as the Luftwaffe will suffer in the east. To rebuild this in time will require resources that Germany can't spare. As such I could see a slower German U boat programme.

Steve
Hitler might not forget about Barbarossa, but if he makes a major blunder (and most likely will) at Sealion, no general in the right mind would follow Hitler's orders. The only reason the German command and soldiers fought for Hitler to the last was that Hitler seemed to be THE master tactician due to the successes at France and the USSR to mid 42.

With the failure of Sealion, the most likely outcome would be that the generals would be able to make the decisions, and not some guy with a mustache. We'll most likely see a stalemate between Germany and the UK in this timeline, till u-boats starve Britain, or Americans (or the Soviets) join the fight.
 
Hitler might not forget about Barbarossa, but if he makes a major blunder (and most likely will) at Sealion, no general in the right mind would follow Hitler's orders. The only reason the German command and soldiers fought for Hitler to the last was that Hitler seemed to be THE master tactician due to the successes at France and the USSR to mid 42.

With the failure of Sealion, the most likely outcome would be that the generals would be able to make the decisions, and not some guy with a mustache. We'll most likely see a stalemate between Germany and the UK in this timeline, till u-boats starve Britain, or Americans (or the Soviets) join the fight.

An excellent point. I never thought about that and you're right. Hitler got lucky and the army didn't stop with his interferring with operations. But a major blunder like this will definitely tarnish his reputation. Of course, will the army actually stand up to him at that point? I'd like to say 'yes' but...:confused:
 
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