A More Plausible "Big One"

Oh this brings back memories. I got banned from his forum for my criticism of this particular turn of events.

He had not menaced to point you to his NSA friends?:p

Why not just retake Britain? Slade says the German Navy is kaput. There is a resistance movement going on in Britain being supplied by the Americans (how are they doing that?) Instead of going into Russia, retake the UK, build some airfields, start a guerilla war in Vichy France and then nuke Germany.

Ehy, if the USA and co. can supply an LL equivalent through the TranSiberian railroad and the Iran route alone, supply some groups in the UK is a piece of cake...plus in your scenario the mighty B-36 will not have his great moment

The Luftwaffe doesn’t have aircraft in the British Isles? You would think they would figure out how to attack an aircraft carrier.

IRC they had tried but failed (or simply have not even tried it don't remember well)...because anyone posing a serious menace to the american forces (that had already sweep the oceans of the Nazi sub forces in his totality) it's heresy.
 
My other favorite stuart slade tidbit is how he's violently against the idea of ballistic missiles and has a borderline delusional view on the capababilities of anti-ballistic missile defense systems and an under-appreciation of surface to air missiles. Hence why by the 90's the us is using space plane bombers.


Another cool thing stuart slade did, in some bizzare scheme to gain credibility, was make up a persona of a female Thailand general who he was supposedly friends with and made a forum account where he posted with incredibly hamfisted engrish that people saw through in about ten minutes. Bizarrely she's also a character in the big one series and slade's other work the salvation war IIRC.

And I don't really have a good segue for this but I'm pretty sure TBO timeline ends with a literal muslim genocide because of course it does.

Dudes got some issues.
 
Another cool thing stuart slade did, in some bizzare scheme to gain credibility, was make up a persona of a female Thailand general who he was supposedly friends with and made a forum account where he posted with incredibly hamfisted engrish that people saw through in about ten minutes. Bizarrely she's also a character in the big one series and slade's other work the salvation war IIRC.

Um, I never actually realised she genuinely didn't exist. I did think it was all very odd though.
 

Wimble Toot

Banned
The US Navy is parked off the coast of France bombing the Nazis but not Occupied England and Ireland?

Because he'd alienate most of his English-speaking readership?

I haven't read the book btw.

Why would The the USAAF/USAF not develop a long range fighter to take on the Luftwaffe? Basically the US sends out a few B-29 raids, gets it’s ass kicked and just gives up? Slade mentions the P-47 and P-80 but no P-51 Mustang?

Presumably no Rolls Royce Merlin 60 developed = no Packard V-1650-7 = no Mustang as escort fighter.

Also there would be no P-59 and definitely no P-80 without British jet engines, but hey - I'm sure Slade had Pratt & Handwavium, Inc making gas turbines of their own.
 
Don’t forget:

Magical Siberian oil fields that are bigger than anything else in the world and keep gas cheap forever. Leading to cars that never get more fuel efficient. Ever.

Somehow DC v. Heller happens in the 1950s and it makes any kind of firearm law impossible.

The implausible Muslim Caliphate who are somehow simultaneously living in the Middle Ages and yet capable of developing a biological super-virus unleash it on Latin America and also the southwestern United States, leading to a border wall that would have given our current president a raging hardon.

And you’ll note that despite the second most populated city in the United States being virtually wiped off the map by a super-plague, nobody seems to acknowledge it.
 
Don’t forget:

Magical Siberian oil fields that are bigger than anything else in the world and keep gas cheap forever. Leading to cars that never get more fuel efficient. Ever.

Somehow DC v. Heller happens in the 1950s and it makes any kind of firearm law impossible.

The implausible Muslim Caliphate who are somehow simultaneously living in the Middle Ages and yet capable of developing a biological super-virus unleash it on Latin America and also the southwestern United States, leading to a border wall that would have given our current president a raging hardon.

And you’ll note that despite the second most populated city in the United States being virtually wiped off the map by a super-plague, nobody seems to acknowledge it.

Well, after the immortal cabal of as...le that manipulate event in a global scale and are used by Stuart as a Mary Sue self-insert and general cop out the rest is small thing, including the fact that the US force pre-war border to anyone in Europe (that after a couple of more years of Nazi occupation, the nuclear attack, the multi years mop up...will be very ethnically different from OTL)

Frankly much of the general developement of the TL is probably due to the working enviroment of his board, that's basically become a (far)right wing echo chamber where Demonrats are not really welcomed
 
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Archibald

Banned
Because he'd alienate most of his English-speaking readership?

I haven't read the book btw.



Presumably no Rolls Royce Merlin 60 developed = no Packard V-1650-7 = no Mustang as escort fighter.

Also there would be no P-59 and definitely no P-80 without British jet engines, but hey - I'm sure Slade had Pratt & Handwavium, Inc making gas turbines of their own.

Lockheed had the L-1000 very advanced engine. Throw enough money and engineering at it, and it will work.
 

Wimble Toot

Banned
Lockheed had the L-1000 very advanced engine.

According to googlebooks, Whittle gets one mention in the book a 'scientist' rescued from Britain before they capitulated, in which case they rescued the wrong 'scientist'

L-1000 was an axial flow jet engine.

Seems like this guys AH has many tiny loose threads, pull at any one and the material falls to pieces.
 
Without a war, or a credible threat to the US, that doesn't happen

Well Roosevelt always saw Germany as a menace and the fall of France (and the mere thought of the UK facing the same fate) really made people think about countermeasure to Germany. If the UK sign a peace treaty with the Nazi i expect money throw to the armed forces.
The problem is from where the money come from? ITTL the UK proper is not a war and even if Stuart had handwaved the Tizard mission making the various scientist escaping Great Britain towards North America, still no British Island mean a lot less of industrial power and money not available (Plus the idea that the various Dominion decided to continue the war with Germany while there is the looming japanese menace much nearer to them it's a little ridicolous).

Returning to the OP, how the entire situation can be more plausible

- Rooseevelt is not president in 1940, someone that while want to continue the New Deal it's much more isolationist. THat man while giving more money to the armed forces refuse to be involved in the European problem (No Cash and Carry or Destroyers for bases...nothing)
- worse Dunkirk, much worse
- The British in the end sign a white peace (basically agree with Nazi control of Europe and some minor concession to Italy)
- Hitler decide to increase fund to the Navy and update SeaLion plan in something doable in case the UK want to resume hostilities.
- War in the Pacific, greater cooperation with the USA (Tizard Mission and Project Manhattan equivalent happen)...end in 45 with Olympic-style invasion (it's a bloodbath and sour the american pubblic to any large scale invasion)
- Barbarossa begun, the Red army is not catched flatfooted as OTL...but the absences of the North African and Balkan front compensate
- The USA (and the Commonwealth) start Cash and Carry and Land Lease equivalent to support the Soviets
- The German nuclear project is more succesfull than OTL
- Hitler launch SeaLion equivalent to force the UK to stop supporting Stalin; while the invasion bog down quickly in south England people start to panic
- Operation Big One launched in a Rush, with many bombers missing target and/or down due to mechanical failure or human error, due to the fear of a collapsing Soviet Front, the invasion of the UK and rumors of imminent success of the German atomic project.
 
According to googlebooks, Whittle gets one mention in the book a 'scientist' rescued from Britain before they capitulated, in which case they rescued the wrong 'scientist'

L-1000 was an axial flow jet engine.

Seems like this guys AH has many tiny loose threads, pull at any one and the material falls to pieces.

Frankly maybe at the beginning it was (as stated) an attempt to counter the German fanboys, but it quickly evolved in build their fantasy (perfect) world...so plausibility had never been an issue
 
And indulge in France-bashing.

Well, sure, but is just a part...Stuart and co. described the TBOverse as America deciding that unlike OTL were they saved Europe (and the rest of the world) just to see how ungratefull they were, ITTL they decide to capitalize on it and act as the world policeman (aka hegemon).
Translated: Stuart and friends wanted NATO (and the rest of the USA allied nation) was more like the Warsaw Pact, they don't want ally but servant.
 
Seems like this guys AH has many tiny loose threads, pull at any one and the material falls to pieces.
Well yes. Slade knows very little about history. Or politics, religion, psychology, basic plot elements, characterization, geography, or whatever else he decides to write about. What he does know about are weapons (though in general not their history or the science behind them). But he’s absolutely convinced of his own omniscience. Combine that with the echo chamber of his fans and it’s not a surprise his stories are so dreadful.
 
Frankly maybe at the beginning it was (as stated) an attempt to counter the German fanboys, but it quickly evolved in build their fantasy (perfect) world...so plausibility had never been an issue

It apparently started as a forum game, a kind of inherently artificial what-if "eh, what if Germany faced a kind of Dropshot-scale nuclear attack" that became a story (The Salvation War started in a similar way, with a philosophical question turning into "GO IRON CHARIOTS" turning into well, what it became).

Keep in mind it was written in the much earlier days of the internet, where a lot of what's now known was less established even in the AH community. So, now something like "the WAllies nibble at the edges until the nukes are ready and then drop them if the Soviets are overrun" is basically noncontroversial. So is "With the Soviets walloped, the WAllies have to do much more direct fighting and take many more casualties." Same thing with a lot of equipment wunderwaffe-debunking.

Most of the other implausibilities and problems have been mentioned, so I'll go with one of the lesser ones. One of the stranger parts is how the Germans are wanked as well as the Americans. The Germans can pull off the ASB occupation of Britain, reach the Volga in its entirety, stay there for years while the Soviets newly reborn decommunized teddy-bear Russians are still politically resisting and the Americans revving up, and inflict 1.3 million Americans alone killed in action without taking enough losses to break the back of their army in return[1]. While AH predictions are of course tough, it's worth noting that David Glantz saw the date around which the nukes are dropped in the book as the point where the Soviets would have ended the war triumphant without Western Allied assistance-much less a giant field army and hordes of lend-lease, especially with the Pacific butterflied away. One of Stuart's explanations for this amounted to "the line is too long thin for anyone to do anything", mixed with German fire-brigade mobile tactics of panzer groups zipping around blocking every push being described in the book itself, which I'm more than a little skeptical of[2]. One problem is that he was too wedded to the whole "Stalemate broken by nuclear power". It's one thing to break the stalemate, another to (in a rough parallel to OTL, even), use nukes to end the war rather than win it, where the Russo-American armies are advancing but dread the advance into Fortress Germany itself after all their casualties. After the war, the leftover Germans are more or less the only enemy allowed to show even the slightest competence. So it's weird, especially since the German-debunking is sincere.

The immortals are also strange, not just for being supernatural figures in a series that otherwise claims to be Utterly Realistic[3], but because they were also made as a way to avoid making lots of new characters without cliche dynasties in similar positions (and of course, nudging things along as a 'wizard did it' plot).

[1]This is all napkin-work, but a few basic calcs showed that even if they never ever get any better of a loss ratio than the Hurtgen campaign, the Americans still equal the historical Western Allied casualty infliction. And that's a worst-case scenario that doesn't account for prisoners (see below).
[2]My reasons for skepticism are twofold. One, historically panzer attacks dropped dramatically in effectiveness, especially above the tactical scale as the war went on. Two, the Allies will be vastly more motorized and can run circles around the strung-out horse-drawn formations.
[3]Which hurts its case, as it throws down the gauntlet and makes me more critical of stuff I'd let slide in many other tales.
 
SNIPPAGE. One of the stranger parts is how the Germans are wanked as well as the Americans. MOAR SNIPPAGE.

Pretty astute analysis overall, but I wanted to address this little bit; my understanding is that he wanted to comp the Germans all of their Napkin-waffe advantages (to the point, TBH, of incredulity) to make a point, that none of that would do the Nazis any good even IF they were unrealistically successful in their endeavors. One may take it or leave it (it's not the most factually rigorous strategy of writing a TL), but if nothing else it does point back to that statement on how early this "universe" (I suppose?), was written in AH terms.
 
Pretty astute analysis overall, but I wanted to address this little bit; my understanding is that he wanted to comp the Germans all of their Napkin-waffe advantages (to the point, TBH, of incredulity) to make a point, that none of that would do the Nazis any good even IF they were unrealistically successful in their endeavors. One may take it or leave it (it's not the most factually rigorous strategy of writing a TL), but if nothing else it does point back to that statement on how early this "universe" (I suppose?), was written in AH terms.

I think the problem is that his ego got the better of him. If it was just the original story and every subsequent response to the stalemate being brought up was "I know, I know, I was making them artificially powerful to prove my point about the nukes", I'd have less of an issue. Instead it was an insistence that it was all realistic with justifications like the thin line, and this was far from the only case of such a thing happening.
 
Thon Taddeo wrote:
Stuart Slade wrote an (in)famous work of alternate history called The Big One, which involved the UK falling to the Nazis, the war in the eastern front becoming a bloody stalemate and the US finally winning the war by launching a massive atomic attack on the Reich.
>snipage<
Given these issues, is it possible to come up with a more plausible story involving a massive atomic attack on the Reich?

Let me first say I've not read nor had interest in reading the cited work. This has been BEFORE reading any critisisims or discussion on the work as the it was the "jacket notes" themselves on various offerings that put me off, and nothing I've seen since has reversed that lack of interest.

In answer to the OP why yes there is in fact: AANW by CalBear does a marvelous and plausible job of it. The key to being plausible is simply having enough background material, research and willingness to learn, a viable POD, and the skill to write more than a few paragraphs at at time.
(The lack of one of these is why I have no time lines on this site :) )

As to the "issues" those would be addressed by the above "stuff" OTHER than being able to write but as PuffyClouds wrote:
The period in which this story was written was heavily saturated in German fanboyism which argued for outrageous German accomplishments had the war continued for even a shorter bit of time due to their wonder weapons. Slade intended this story to be a mirror of that line of thinking to show that even if the Germans accomplished as much as they could, that applying the "Wonder Weapon - Luft'48" fantasy to America would result in a much more horrific outcome for Germany.

A (possibly) laudable goal initially but simply "doing it in reverse" isn't very credible which seems to be the case. The 'concept' of fighting "fire-with-fire" is plausible, fighting "fanboyism-with-fanboyism" is unfortunately not as, (obviously) neither is based in reality.

PLasmaTorch wrote:
It's hard for me to believe that a guy who was employed in the defense industry could be this blissfully ignorant and hopelessly optimistic about the development of a weapons system, even one that he has a soft spot for... Actually, you know what, I CAN believe it. Just take a look at the colossal screw up that is the F-35 fighter, or the zumwalt destroyers!

Should not be hard at all to believe as they're as human as the next person is with all that implies. Jack Parson's a literally "Rocket Scientist" believed in Magik, (not knocking the 'belief' itself mind there's a reason there is a "k" on the end :) ) which has no reasonable basis for plausibility given his training, education and intelligence. The use of the former helped developed effective solid rocket motors, the latter seems to have had no tangible effect of the same magnitude.

What one chooses to 'believe' and evidence gathered to support ONLY that belief can significantly effect ones interaction with the "real" world but one can still in fact be effective. Probably less effective but still...

The thing is that setting up a "fantasy fulfillment" story is all well and good as long as you're willing to admit it. Doing so and not expecting to get criticism, and ignoring any facts or figures that contradict the narrative move the story from "AH" plausibility to "Fanfic" territory.

And quite obviously he's not the only one as is noted :)

I recall RanulfC stating...

Ok, can I admit that seeing this then having the conversation go on with a shrug was kinda a 'mini-squee' moment for me? :)

Colier wrote:
I think the problem is that his ego got the better of him. If it was just the original story and every subsequent response to the stalemate being brought up was "I know, I know, I was making them artificially powerful to prove my point about the nukes", I'd have less of an issue. Instead it was an insistence that it was all realistic with justifications like the thin line, and this was far from the only case of such a thing happening.

Has happened to others so... :)

As I noted initially the sense of 'wanky-ism' from the "jacket notes" was enough to put me off and seeing the RESPONSES to the criticisms was more than enough to seal the deal for me.

I'm a fan of the B-70 myself but it was statements like:
(paraphrase)"No missile is capable of intercepting a B-70 attack with full support"

Cause me to seriously question the general knowledge of the aircraft, the planned "support" and the expected opposition.

LeMay's "plan" for fully supporting a B-70 penetration into hostile airspace was based on a prior 'bombardment' by ICBMs to "open holes" in the Air Defense net. The B-70 itself was (towards production rather than the prototypes actually built) to be armed both or either with free-fall bombs OR stand-off missiles of some type because it was understood that they would quite probably be unable to successfully penetrate an active Air Defense zone as originally designed. (High and fast)

The fact that American HAS B-70s is a major problem as the geopolitical climate is totally different than the one that drove the development of the OTL B-70. The B-70, like the B-58, would have been a nuclear attack aircraft using its speed and altitude to avoid ground and air intercept to deliver a nuclear payload to target. It had no other purpose or use as it had a limited ability to carry conventional weapons and even less utility in dropping them into tactical situations. And as early as 1950 it was quite obvious OTL that 'nuking' every problem wasn't a practical solution, it should of course be far MORE obvious in the TBO-verse.

Probably THE most 'unforgivable' issue with the TBO-verse is the lack of justification for America and American's in the TBO-verse to actually want or care to develop either the hegemony or technology described. It took the bombing of Pearl Harbor to get most of America motivated to destroy Germany and Japan OTL and lacking that...

Despite appearances, and unlike any other "Big Power" both ability wise and temperament wise American's are not big on maintaining "empires" even if we occasionally attempt to build one. While this tends to be viewed as a weakness by some parts of our society, (hence the 'need' for wish-fulfillment fiction I suppose) I don't see it and, quite obviously, historically neither has the majority of the American population. Hence why we tended to get rid of our 'colonies' pretty quickly. "Regimentation" and "commitment" are two things we do really, really well for a short period but tend to backlash against rapidly and in similar measure.

Fact is, and this also upsets a segment of our society, economics isn't the only thing we're mostly "laissez-faire" (http://vocabulary-vocabulary.com/dictionary/laissez-faire.php) about ;)

We're lazy at heart over things directly outside our immediate interest, and that interest is fairly short-sighted and direct in and of itself. We can be trained, (and even housebroken!) but very often we don't do the whole 'long-haul' thing and frankly THAT has been a real puzzle for everyone else. (And again a segment of our society finds this "annoying" to say the least) Neither Empire or Hegemony is really an American thing.

Randy
 
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