A More Plausible "Big One"

Stuart Slade wrote an (in)famous work of alternate history called The Big One, which involved the UK falling to the Nazis, the war in the eastern front becoming a bloody stalemate and the US finally winning the war by launching a massive atomic attack on the Reich.

There are numerous issues with the work.

- Why does the US declare war on the Reich after Britain falls?
- Why isn't the USSR more prepared for Barbarossa?
- Why doesn't Japan attack Pearl Harbor or attempt to seize European colonies in Southeast Asia?
- Why does the US send ground forces to the eastern front, and why does the USSR accept them?
- Why does Zhukov overthrow Stalin, and why does the USSR abandon Marxism-Leninism?
- By the time the story takes place, the US and USSR had been fighting Germany for six years, with precious few gains. Why does the US remain in a never-ending unwinnable conflict?
- Why does the US build a fleet of hundreds of B-36s? Ignoring issues of technology, financing and logistics, why would the US do this? The few strategic raids the USAAF conducted were massive failures. Wouldn't the US invest more in the tactical use of aircraft?
- The Germans shot down only one B-36, which was a weather craft if I remember correctly. The Germans only manage to cause minor damage to a couple of bombers, no bombers are forced to return due to mechanical problems, and every bomb successfully detonates on target.
- Why are the bombers sentient?

I'm sure there are many other issues (especially with the sequels).

Given these issues, is it possible to come up with a more plausible story involving a massive atomic attack on the Reich?
 
- Why does Zhukov overthrow Stalin, and why does the USSR abandon Marxism-Leninism?

Given Slade's political views and his tendency for them to leak into his work, it's not much of a surprise that he found it unpalatable to write the Soviets as the allies of the wonderful American heroes. I'm guessing he picked Zhukov due to laziness.
 

PlasmaTorch

Banned
Before you can proceed with a story even vaguely resembling that of the big one, you have to recognise a simple fact: Namely, that the americans are not going to wait multiple years until they have built up a stockpile of over 200 atom bombs. They are going to start dropping bombs on germany as soon as they are available! Stewarts in-story attempt to show why the americans would refrain from premature use of the bomb is so weak that it can be discarded out of hand.

Even if that wasn't the case, even if the americans threw logic out the window and decided to wait, it still wouldn't be possible for them to carry out 'the big one.' Do you know why? Because by stewarts own admission, the strategy requires a fleet of over 1000 B-36 bombers, and a stockpile of well over 200 atomic bombs!* All ready by mid 1947! That is so mind bogglingly implausible that you have left the region of alternate history, and entered the domain of alien space bats.

The road the americans would need to embark on to arrive at such a state is absurd. The cost would be as nightmarish. Stewart actually stated that the B-36 production run would continue into the 50s, until over 6000 of these gigantic bombers had been created. Who the hell knows why they would go that route. He also said that the B-36s involved in 'the big one' used a number of gun type bombs. That would put an impossible demand on the K-25 and Y-12 plants at oak ridge.


*Thats not to say that 1000 bombers were involved in the actual raid, however. Rather, SAC needed a force of 1000 B-36s to ensure they had a high enough level of operational readiness to carry out the raid (cough, nuclear holocaust) with a high guarantee of success.
 
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Wallet

Banned
The Soviet Army alone (armed by the Americans) defeated 90% of the German Army. In theory 100% could be used for the Eastern Front but they are still occupying Western Europe. Also Great Britain, which probably uses up the troops they had on the Atlantic Wall.

The Soviet Army was bigger then the German Army. The American Army was bigger then the German Army. Combined you have 2 or 3 times larger allied army. They would make gains in the eastern front. Unless the US was fighting and occupying Japan. Even then the US would see Germany as a bigger threat.

A US-Soviet alliance will always win WW2. Period.
 
Stuart Slade wrote an (in)famous work of alternate history called The Big One, which involved the UK falling to the Nazis, the war in the eastern front becoming a bloody stalemate and the US finally winning the war by launching a massive atomic attack on the Reich.

There are numerous issues with the work.

- Why does the US declare war on the Reich after Britain falls?
- Why isn't the USSR more prepared for Barbarossa?
- Why doesn't Japan attack Pearl Harbor or attempt to seize European colonies in Southeast Asia?
- Why does the US send ground forces to the eastern front, and why does the USSR accept them?
- Why does Zhukov overthrow Stalin, and why does the USSR abandon Marxism-Leninism?
- By the time the story takes place, the US and USSR had been fighting Germany for six years, with precious few gains. Why does the US remain in a never-ending unwinnable conflict?
- Why does the US build a fleet of hundreds of B-36s? Ignoring issues of technology, financing and logistics, why would the US do this? The few strategic raids the USAAF conducted were massive failures. Wouldn't the US invest more in the tactical use of aircraft?
- The Germans shot down only one B-36, which was a weather craft if I remember correctly. The Germans only manage to cause minor damage to a couple of bombers, no bombers are forced to return due to mechanical problems, and every bomb successfully detonates on target.
- Why are the bombers sentient?

I'm sure there are many other issues (especially with the sequels).

Given these issues, is it possible to come up with a more plausible story involving a massive atomic attack on the Reich?

1. Nazis try to mess with South America: enough said. American feelings of isolationism certainly diden't extend particularly deeply into their "backyard" (IE The Western Hemisphere), so the Germans doing anything material to support local Fascist-types could easily trigger an international incident. Easy options include Venezula or Argentina, who have a history or failing democracy/military coups during this period and claims on British Suriname and the Falklands, which would (presumably) still be considered part of the British Empire's government-in-exile.

2. ... the USSR basically coulden't be less prepared for Barbarossa unless they were actively trying to be. The initial counter-efforts were also a flub, but you COULD mess up the later attempts to stimmy the attack (perhaps including some disastrous/ill-motivated counter-attacks that end up getting encircled), the Fall of Britain corraling Vichy and Turkey into direct involvement and increasing the contribution from the Italians (Franco can't spare more than his Blue Legion, still recovering from the Civil War), and maybe leaning on Sweden to join Finland in the Continuation War due to their complete isolation.

3. Have the army pick up some more prestige in China and the Germans gurantee Vichy's control of Indochina so the Japanese can't base naval/air assets or logistics out of them. This would make a move on the south look less desirable (Particularly depending on how the Fall of Britain works; do the colonial authorities recognize whatever puppet the Germans set up in London? Then they might be out of reach politically, and the Dutch can be given a puppet government/local autonomy by the Germans in exchange for agreeing to export the East Indies oil to Japan)

4. ... does not happen, ESPECIALLY if you want a German victory. Stalin was incredibly sensitive about counter-revolutionary troops on his soil, and logistically it'd be a pain in the neck to supply and command them. The Fall of Britain makes the logistical situation of even just getting OTL's Lend-Lease to them a pain, to say nothing of what would be needed to back up American forces.

5. I'll leave this to those who better understand internal Soviet politics of the period.

6. ... again, it likely dosen't unless the Germans keep trying to interfere in the Americas, which at some point isen't going to happen due to their losing the naval race and after the 12th or so German-backed dictator gets kicked out by Pro-American forces you aren't likely to find many takers. The war could still offically continue, but cool down into a "ceasefire" of sorts, or probing to try to find a soft underbelly to the Axis.

7. Cold War Logic: if they can't hit the Germans any other way, and early efforts by long-range bombers show real promise on some front or another, it could become the doctrine of force-projection / a way for the politicos to continue the fighting without facing massive public backlash. Perhaps the US still gets into a war with Japan, and have it primarily consist on bombing the home islands to rubble to the point Japan concedes its position in the Pacific, but the people need an example of the Bomber Offensive WORKING. See German public opinion on the submarine in WW I.

8. Over time the Germans figure out counter-measures through experience and experimentation, just like people adapt to most other military technology.

9. ... NO. The Bombers are not sentient without the help of flying rats from beyond earth. Unless you think pigeons are sentient and you somehow get a successful pigeon-bomb project.
 

PlasmaTorch

Banned

Yeah, thats pretty much my opinion. If britain signs a white peace with germany, its really hard to get america in the war. Its actually far more plausible to go the route that AANW did: The nazis manage to squeak out a win at stalingrad, which causes fragmentation within the soviet politiburo, and results in them collapsing into disunity and surrendering. Then britain and america have to finish the job by themselves, a very difficult task.

Their attempts at invading france will almost certainly fail, and the war won't be resolved until they break out atomic bombs. Maybe not even then, considering how good germanys air defenses were. By early 1945, they were starting to field centimetric radar, double action fuses for their flak guns, and Me 262s with their engine problems fixed. I think the B-29s would have a much tougher time over berlin than they did over hiroshima.

The Soviet Army alone (armed by the Americans) defeated 90% of the German Army. In theory 100% could be used for the Eastern Front but they are still occupying Western Europe. Also Great Britain, which probably uses up the troops they had on the Atlantic Wall.

The war was always a multi front affair. The soviets took on the bulk of the wehrmacht and fought them to a standstill, while the americans and british whittled away at the germans in the atlantic and north africa, with bombing raids, with commando raids, etc. Without the soviets to do the heavy lifting, the war becomes much harder. I like to look at it from the perspective of a 2 vs 1 tag team, of which there are 3 possible combinations.

Britian and russia vs germany.
Britain and america vs germany.
America and russia vs germany.

Which of those three combinations has the best chance of beating the nazis? In my opinion, its got to be britain and russia.

The Soviet Army was bigger then the German Army. The American Army was bigger then the German Army. Combined you have 2 or 3 times larger allied army. They would make gains in the eastern front. Unless the US was fighting and occupying Japan. Even then the US would see Germany as a bigger threat.

A US-Soviet alliance will always win WW2. Period.

The U.S. army was only bigger if you include the USAAF. If you remove them, they are actually a bit smaller than the germany army by 1944. But again, the question is where do you send all these guys? Britain isn't in the war, so you'd have to send them through the ass end of russia. Thats right, you're looking at an entry point like vladivostock! The logistics for that operation are not going to be fun. A U.S. army 'expeditionary force' would also be difficult to arrange for political reasons, as FillyofDelphi pointed out.

In my personal opinion, I think an america + russia take team has a lower chance of defeating the nazis. Without britain as a middle man, the military equation gets all #$%^ed up.
 
In my personal opinion, I think an america + russia take team has a lower chance of defeating the nazis. Without britain as a middle man, the military equation gets all #$%^ed up.

And you really have to handwave away the Japanese just letting the Americans waltz across the Pacific into the Russian Far East too. Heck you need to handwave the whole Pacific War...
 
And you really have to handwave away the Japanese just letting the Americans waltz across the Pacific into the Russian Far East too. Heck you need to handwave the whole Pacific War...

Japan would still occupy French Indochina in this scenario, and that's what spurred the embargo.
 
"Stuart Slade wrote an (in)famous work of alternate history called The Big One, "

FWIW, there's still sections appearing, novelettes filling in gaps of a much, much bigger, broader arc...
 

Archibald

Banned
You nailed it perfectly ! The R-4360 weren't very reliable overall. I once red it took something like 10 hours for a standing army of mechanicians to get a B-36 ready to flight.
 
Stuart Slade wrote an (in)famous work of alternate history called The Big One, which involved the UK falling to the Nazis, the war in the eastern front becoming a bloody stalemate and the US finally winning the war by launching a massive atomic attack on the Reich.

There are numerous issues with the work.

- Why does the US declare war on the Reich after Britain falls?
- Why isn't the USSR more prepared for Barbarossa?
- Why doesn't Japan attack Pearl Harbor or attempt to seize European colonies in Southeast Asia?
- Why does the US send ground forces to the eastern front, and why does the USSR accept them?
- Why does Zhukov overthrow Stalin, and why does the USSR abandon Marxism-Leninism?
- By the time the story takes place, the US and USSR had been fighting Germany for six years, with precious few gains. Why does the US remain in a never-ending unwinnable conflict?
- Why does the US build a fleet of hundreds of B-36s? Ignoring issues of technology, financing and logistics, why would the US do this? The few strategic raids the USAAF conducted were massive failures. Wouldn't the US invest more in the tactical use of aircraft?
- The Germans shot down only one B-36, which was a weather craft if I remember correctly. The Germans only manage to cause minor damage to a couple of bombers, no bombers are forced to return due to mechanical problems, and every bomb successfully detonates on target.
- Why are the bombers sentient?

I'm sure there are many other issues (especially with the sequels).

Given these issues, is it possible to come up with a more plausible story involving a massive atomic attack on the Reich?

I will go from Memory so, please don't bear with me if i said something of incorrect.

1) - IRC, the RN (that has found refuge in Canada after the Halifax quasi-coup) sail to New York trying to be attacked by the German to incite a diplomatic incident with the americans...and they succeed

2) - because otherwise the USA...or better Lord LeMay and the mighty SAC can't come to the rescue and saving the day (yes is sarcasm, but it also the real reason)

3) - In the USA the China lobby is put in the doghouse and the goverment make an agreement with the Japanese to give them free hand in China; to put the cherry in the pie the entire treaty it's probable the work of a cabal of immortal that's trying to forge the USA in what they believe it's the best for us (no i'm not joking...and yes we already have jumped right in the mounth of the Shark).

4) - Officially because Stalin was so desperate that it needed really every help possible...but more for give the US Army something to do.

5) - Probable because Stuart know just Zhukov as a Soviet general and don't really know anything about soviet internal politics that's not cold war related or weapon related.

6) - Authorial fiat.

7) - Stuart had an enormous hard on for the SAC, Saint LeMay and the Strategic Bombers (B-36 in primis) so it's like heresy for him imply that invest money in useless tactical craft is the sanest option.

8) - Slade is uncapable to write any battle the involve the US armed forces that's not the american cumberstomping any opposition

9) - it's a narrative device, one of the few thing of this story that i found good.


Frankly the Big One entire saga has 3 big problems

A) - Stuart had only a very cursory and limited knowledge of non weapon related history, not even wikipedia level of knowledge. If the story was posted here he will be full of comment about the mistake and implausibility in less than 5 seconds, but in 10 Calbear will ban him due to his aversion to admit to have done any mistake and being very vocal about it. Probably this is one of the reason why he had a low opinion of this forum.

B) - Can't keep separate his political idea from the story...but there is also the big suspect that's in reality he is just panpering the audience.

C) - his writing style is very boring.

Making the Big One more plausible well, let's try:

- Ok, you want the UK making peace with Germany, no problem...just work on it; the Halifax coup is a blatant and implausible cop-out, as the fact that the rest of the Dominion decided to continue to fight the Axis. Make a worse Dunkirk, kill Churchill, etc. etc. but remember that's will be at most a white peace and no, there is no way in hell that any British PM will accept the presence of German soldiers in the British Island in any numbers (Germans soldiers were sent in the UK by peace treaty to keep an eye in military installation and when the British goverment refuse to sent troops in Russia take control of the nation...yes it's that stupid). Maybe the US president is one different from Roosveelt, one that while not liking Germany is still an isolationist and don't want to be involved in Europe

- Make the immortal cabal vanish, it's beyond idiocy and it's now become the author mounthpiece and excuse on why improbable and implausible thing happen.

- No Washington will not give Tokyo a free hand in China and there are tons of post here that clearly explain why if the Japanese wanted take control of the european colonial holding the Philippines need to be neutralized. So, yes instead to sent troops in Russia it's the Pacific War.

- Without any other conflict there is no way that Stalin will get caught so flat footed, so while the Germans had now more advantage the initial soviet loss will not be so crushing.

- Germany declare war against the USA to support Japan (Hitler is idiot as OTL), but not to the Commonwealth and the UK due to the previous peace treaty

- Stalin die just before the attack and Beria take his place (the URSS internal struggle is anothe reason to rush the plan)

- The USA (and more discretely the commonwealth) give a lot of logistical support to the URSS

- The attack is a rush job due to the intel that the German nuclear program is almost completed and so the operation is principally conventional but with all the atomic weapons produced till now. There is a lot of failure due to navigational error, mechanical failure, human error, etc. etc. (really, even training excercise doesn't go so smooth as Slade original operation).

- Make the US sometime lose or at least take severe loss

For the Future installament

- No Chipang (Japan while conquering China become sinizated in a couple of years...yes i suspect that Slade had not read a single book about that period), please; at max a resurgent Imperial China that take control of the Japanese Island and create her own Sphere of Co-prosperity

- No randomid caliphate, better a nasserite-like Arab Union

- If the war ended some years after OTL and after the attack there has been a multi-years effort to destroy any German remnants in Russia/east Europe...thing are pretty much changed from the ethnic pow.

- Yes i undestand Slade that for keep America in his eternal 50's the rest of the world need to be nerfed and no credible menace must rise...but is ridicolous and more try to keep it in this manner and more credibility go down the flush.
 
Before you can proceed with a story even vaguely resembling that of the big one, you have to recognise a simple fact: Namely, that [1] the americans are not going to wait multiple years until they have built up a stockpile of over 200 atom bombs. They are going to start dropping bombs on germany as soon as they are available! Stewarts in-story attempt to show why the americans would refrain from premature use of the bomb is so weak that it can be discarded out of hand.

Even if that wasn't the case, even if the americans threw logic out the window and decided to wait, it still wouldn't be possible for them to carry out 'the big one.' Do you know why? Because by stewarts own admission, the strategy requires [2] a fleet of over 1000 B-36 bombers, and [3] a stockpile of well over 200 atomic bombs!* All ready by mid 1947! That is so mind bogglingly implausible that you have left the region of alternate history, and entered the domain of alien space bats.

The road the americans would need to embark on to arrive at such a state is absurd. The cost would be as nightmarish. Stewart actually stated that the B-36 production run would continue into the 50s, until over 6000 of these gigantic bombers had been created. Who the hell knows why they would go that route. He also said that the B-36s involved in 'the big one' used [4] a number of gun type bombs. That would put an impossible demand on the K-25 and Y-12 plants at oak ridge.


*Thats not to say that 1000 bombers were involved in the actual raid, however. Rather, SAC needed a force of 1000 B-36s to ensure they had a high enough level of operational readiness to carry out the raid (cough, nuclear holocaust) with a high guarantee of success.

[1] Agreed it would be an extremely stupid idea, but then TBO has only tenuous connections to reality.

[2] The B-36 problems have been dissected in detail here and at on other fora; it's utterly impossible.

[3] Actually if the Manhattan Project continued at wartime production levels [one MK3 per ten days] and incorporated the planned upgrades and new facilities scheduled for late '45 and into 1946 [up to one MK3/4 bomb per 5-6 days] two hundred nuclear weapons would be quite possible. Difficult and resource intensive (especially if the HEU is wasted on the MK1 designs) but possible.

[4] Historically the production rate for MK1 bombs under wartime conditions was roughly three per year ('Little Boy', a second included in the Downfall planning for mid-November '45, a third in mid-Spring 1946) though the rate could have increased. Therefore having six to eight gun-barrel weapons available is, IMO, quite plausible.
One of the few plausible bits of Slade's work...
 
Japan would still occupy French Indochina in this scenario, and that's what spurred the embargo.

Yeah this should have been a "Germany and Japan vs America and Russia" story at best. Without the unsinkable aircraft carrier that is Britain the US can't hope to engage in operations against Fortress Europe, and with the Japanese Empire in the way you can't send aid to Russia along a reasonable route...
 
Stuart Slade wrote an (in)famous work of alternate history called The Big One, which involved the UK falling to the Nazis, the war in the eastern front becoming a bloody stalemate and the US finally winning the war by launching a massive atomic attack on the Reich.

There are numerous issues with the work.

- Why does the US declare war on the Reich after Britain falls?
- Why isn't the USSR more prepared for Barbarossa?
- The Germans only manage to cause minor damage to a couple of bombers, no bombers are forced to return due to mechanical problems, and every bomb successfully detonates on target.

I'm sure there are many other issues (especially with the sequels).

Given these issues, is it possible to come up with a more plausible story involving a massive atomic attack on the Reich?
The period in which this story was written was heavily saturated in German fanboyism which argued for outrageous German accomplishments had the war continued for even a shorter bit of time due to their wonder weapons. Slade intended this story to be a mirror of that line of thinking to show that even if the Germans accomplished as much as they could, that applying the "Wonder Weapon - Luft'48" fantasy to America would result in a much more horrific outcome for Germany.

To address some of your specific concerns:
- Why does the US build a fleet of hundreds of B-36s? Ignoring issues of technology, financing and logistics, why would the US do this?
Originally the Department of War / Army Air Force identified two ways to carry the air war to Europe: a fleet of continental bombers operating from Britain or a fleet of intercontinental bombers operating from the United States. In OTL tens of thousands of B-17s, B-24s, and B-29s were built in addition to hundreds of later strategic bombers starting with the B-36.

The rationale for The Big One is based on the existential danger of an industrialized Germany. High level members of OTL US Government advocated for turning Germany into a rural, backwards collection of small states by starving the German people to death. Historically, the USA was founded on genocide (see the Sullivan Expedition), and remained a genocidal power to until recently.

- Why does the US send ground forces to the eastern front, and why does the USSR accept them?
The Russians are bled dry.

- Why does Zhukov overthrow Stalin, and why does the USSR abandon Marxism-Leninism?
Consequences for act of plot.

- Why doesn't Japan attack Pearl Harbor or attempt to seize European colonies in Southeast Asia?
Diplomacy and trade worked. Japan gets its Greater East Asian Coprosperity Sphere. Later books explore what happens to them. I have not read those books yet so I don't know what happens to them.

- By the time the story takes place, the US and USSR had been fighting Germany for six years, with precious few gains. Why does the US remain in a never-ending unwinnable conflict?
The American Revolution lasted 8 years and was not a very cheery string of victories, sometimes wars last a long time because they are important to win. Despite their initial lack of success the Germans will eventually develop their own nuclear weapons and ICBMs.

The few strategic raids the USAAF conducted were massive failures. Wouldn't the US invest more in the tactical use of aircraft?
In the story they did, the Navy and Army were using jet engined fighters, but they also reallocated industrial potential away from continental bombers (B-29 and lesser) to intercontinental bombers (B-36).

The Germans shot down only one B-36, which was a weather craft if I remember correctly.
Even the German wonder weapons didn't have the ability to perform well at the B-36's altitude. In some ways you can consider this work a follow on to Alexander de Seversky's Victory Through Air Power to emphasize the kinetic and potential energy benefits that bombers posses.

- Why are the bombers sentient?
Artistic license. When some people work with a machine or other object long enough they begin to attribute personality traits to it, or even feel that it communicates with them. Much later in the series' timeline the avionics computer systems actually become AI.
 
Really, Britain falling is where the story already falls apart, especially the way it is depicted.
Again, this is a story that intentionally mirrors German fanboy logic. Sea Lion couldn't possibly work, so this is the next best way to accomplish an occupied Britain.

[2] The B-36 problems have been dissected in detail here and at on other fora; it's utterly impossible.
And yet the B-36s did fly.
 
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