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Courbet attempted to seize Penghu (the Pescadores) and Taiwan for France in the Sino-French War, but that didn't really pan out. If that happened, one of the most immediate knock-on effects I can think of is that Japan won't be getting Taiwan in the Sino-Japanese War.

Japan will still likely be eyeing expansion, which makes me think that if they were constrained in the south, they would focus more on other places of Japanese interest (Manchuria, Shandong, and the Shanghai).

I don't see why Japan in this timeline wouldn't be bullied out of the Liadong Peninsula by Russia, Germany, and France.

The Japanese historically captured Weihaiwei during the Sino-Japanese, so perhaps an annexation of the city could be in order. Yantai and Qingdao are other areas in Shandong where Japan may be interested. Here Shandong could be much more of a focus of Japanese Imperialism as Russia tries to pressure the Japanese to stay away from Manchuria perhaps.

Zhoushan (a small fortressed Archipelago near Shanghai) becoming Japanese could be a possibility here.


What other knock-on effects would there be if Japan were more northern-oriented?
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