A more Northern Japan

Courbet attempted to seize Penghu (the Pescadores) and Taiwan for France in the Sino-French War, but that didn't really pan out. If that happened, one of the most immediate knock-on effects I can think of is that Japan won't be getting Taiwan in the Sino-Japanese War.

Japan will still likely be eyeing expansion, which makes me think that if they were constrained in the south, they would focus more on other places of Japanese interest (Manchuria, Shandong, and the Shanghai).

I don't see why Japan in this timeline wouldn't be bullied out of the Liadong Peninsula by Russia, Germany, and France.

The Japanese historically captured Weihaiwei during the Sino-Japanese, so perhaps an annexation of the city could be in order. Yantai and Qingdao are other areas in Shandong where Japan may be interested. Here Shandong could be much more of a focus of Japanese Imperialism as Russia tries to pressure the Japanese to stay away from Manchuria perhaps.

Zhoushan (a small fortressed Archipelago near Shanghai) becoming Japanese could be a possibility here.


What other knock-on effects would there be if Japan were more northern-oriented?
 
Hmm, only thing I can think of off the top of my head is perhaps no Pearl Harbor- but that doesn't mean Japan and America might not still be on a collision course. Japan might attack Alaska instead. I could also see them attracting the ire of the Red Army by making an attempt at annexing the entirety of the Sakhalin Oblast. However, on the same token, I could still see Japan making a bid for Taiwan/Formosa- Vietnam being in French hands did not stop them from taking French Indochina.
 
More antagonism between Russia and Japan. Maybe Japans joins the central powers to take Taiwan and parts of Russia? I dont think the French or the Russians would be capable of supporting a front in the pacific during the first WW. Would the USA still join in the war? Because with Japanese assistance, the germans would be less pressed to declare USW.
 
I don't see why Japan in this timeline wouldn't be bullied out of the Liadong Peninsula by Russia, Germany, and France.
Russia wants the Liaodong Peninsula for their railroad and a warm water port, France supports Russia due to treaty and not wanting to be diplomatically isolated, Germany wants to keep Russia's focus on the east instead of on it and it wants Russian support in bullying China. Japan focusing on the north doesn't change any of those factors.

It might temper Japan's course though, if they're unable to take as much as they want to. You know what they say, give a mouse a cookie...or it might just make them more riled up.
Maybe Japans joins the central powers to take Taiwan and parts of Russia? I dont think the French or the Russians would be capable of supporting a front in the pacific during the first WW. Would the USA still join in the war? Because with Japanese assistance, the germans would be less pressed to declare USW.
Japan was allied to the UK though. Plus, Japan's navy wasn't enough to support Germany or project to the other side of the planet, not while Britain ruled the waves. The Allied blockade still goes on and Germany's need to conduct USW is not lessened by much at all.

I think the US might have an easier time entering the war, honestly, seeing as the yellow terror was strong at the time and Allied propaganda at the time was labelling the Germans as barbaric Huns from the East anyways. Having another imperial monarchal power, this one actually Eastern and 'yellow,' will do no favours to the neutral cause in America.

Besides, Japan nearly went bankrupt in the Russo-Japanese War. Fighting the Royal Navy would go...poorly.
 
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