A More Eastern Iron Curtain?

[Venice]

In WWII, the German Army was trapped in St. Petersburg because of the Russian street to street fighting. This was the turning point of the Eastern front. Let's say that the Soviets lose the Battle of Stalingrad, eventually surrendering to the Germans. Hitler, while deranged, gets bright and decides to call for a ceasefire, kicking the Russians out of the war and annexing their land. unfortunately for hitler, this was the beginning of the end.

The Western Powers soon overpowered his Germany and soon (as per OTL) had crossed the Rhine. While the East was still in German hands, the Russians, Poles, etc. soon began very damaging guerilla tactics against the Germans, killing hundreds and destroying vital defense lines. This eventually leads to the German abandonment of much of Eastern Europe, especially Ukraine, Belarus, the Baltic States, Greece, and other occupied territories. Legitimate governments are reinstalled in many places, and the German army is pulled back into German. But it is too late, as the Allies have captured Berlin, and have found Hitler's body, dead, apparently committed by suicide. The German army sdurrenders a few days later. Japan follws suit after 2 atomic bombs are dropped on Nagasaki and Hiroshima.

The next several months face intense standoff between the destroyed Soviet Union (which still asserts its control over the newly independent countries) and the main Western power, the United States. The US eventusally decides to hold referdums in all freed territories. As expected, all countries vote no to rejoining the Soviet Union. Thus begins the COld War and the Soviet Union's gradual decline as a world power...

Anyone interested? We get a nice Eastern Europe...I'm thinking expanded Marshal plan at the cost of the US, a destroyed Soviet Union, a weaker Communist China, and eventually, a stronger, much more integrated Europe...

 

[The Red]

Well I don't really see how it's an Iron Curtian or why the Americans would confront them, after all they've just taken back their lands from Nazi puppets who are likely twice as horrible as Stalin.

 

[Venice]

As the Soviet Union is still a superpower here, I'd suspect it to at least voice itws opinions about regainsing its lost territory...

 

[ShadowCommunist2009]

The Cold War would be completely different, if not entirely butterflied away. I'm assuming the German withdrawal would be almost completely wholesale, at least back to Grossdeutschland. The scenario as described has partisans doing most of the fighting in Russia, Poland, Belarus, Ukraine, etc. Romania would almost definitely try to maintain its fascist government, as would Croatia and Hungary. The Yugoslavian partisans probably end up with most of their gains (maybe a little less in Croatia and Slovenia), but the Eastern Bloc wouldn't get set up because the "Glorious Liberation" wouldn't have happened. Moscow wouldn't be installing its puppets throughout Eastern Europe.

So you would probably end up with more of a status-quo peace in Eastern Europe that would be incredibly fragile, as most of the little mini-wars in the interbellum of WWI and WWII were over territorial disputes that had never been settled, and some of those claims weren't even settled after WWII (the border between Poland and Germany was never actually formally delineated IOTL until the 80's, for example). Moldova would not be a country because the Soviets wouldn't be there to claim it as theirs.

Basically, you either end up with a much less serious Cold War, or you end up without one at all.

 

[Mark E.]

What about the absolutely gigantic Red Army, the one who could have defeated Hitler without US support, albeit a few months later?

 

[ShadowCommunist2009]

Let's say that the Soviets lose the Battle of Stalingrad, eventually surrendering to the Germans.

The key word is surrender. The entire Red Army got shipped to do labor in Poland if they weren't shot outright by the Nazis and their own generals.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Your best bet for a more eastern iron curtain is to have the Germans break out of the Stalingrad pocket very soon once the Soviets crash the flanks. Have Paulus be a bit more prudent and the Germans can crush the southern pincer of the pocket, taking out important Soviet troops and preserving hundreds of thousands of experienced and very necessary Axis troops. They probably could save more of their equipment and hold the new line further west.

Form that point, the Soviets have a much harder slog west, resulting in a longer war in the East, a higher body count, and more destruction of Soviet land. This means that by the time the war ends, the Eastern Front is stalled in Poland and the Soviets are exhausted. Further south, the Soviets haven't penetrated the Carpathians and the Romanians stay Axis up until the end, switching as the Western Allies appear in the Balkans. The Balkans then stay within the Allied sphere of influence, as does Czechoslovakia. The Western Allies are more confident and powerful in relation to the Soviets and back-stab Stalin (assuming a lot, I know), ripping up the Yalta agreement and holding the border in Poland. The Germans end up better off for obvious reasons. Who knows, maybe the Eastern armies even surrender to the West instead of ending up in the Gulags and dying en masse.

This makes Europe quite a bit richer and better off than OTL, maybe leaving Germany intact, but disarmed, or even permanently divided (until the cold war heats up). This means that the Soviets are a lot more paranoid than OTL and probably take most of Asia sooner to compensate. This also means that the Western Allies might very well take the extermination camps (like Auschewitz) in Poland intact, which means they can truly understand the enormity of the crimes there. This means a harder peace on Germany, so maybe the nation is not ever allowed to reunite. Who knows.

 

[CanadianGoose]

The Western Powers soon overpowered his Germany and soon (as per OTL) had crossed the Rhine.

I wonder how did it happen, with Germany having a real army in France, as opposed to OTL shell-shocked bits and pieces of units mauled by Russian meat-grinder, considered unfit for Eastern Front...

 

[RGB]

With the Red Army a non-factor, Germany now has a lot of troops at its disposal to stop allied landings just about anywhere.

I don't see how this TL is plausible, for this reason among a couple of other ones.

 

[Venice]

I never said that the Soviets didn't inflict heavy cdasualties on the germans, and I never specified when the Soviets surrended.

My assumption is that the Soviets surrendered rather late, around 1944 or 43, giving the war-torn and defeated Germans less time to retreat. Meanwhile, partisans continue to ravage the German supplies.

But wow interesting thoughts...

 

[CanadianGoose]

I never said that the Soviets didn't inflict heavy cdasualties on the germans, and I never specified when the Soviets surrended.

If they did (or even if OTL carnage starts to tone down, while sides are still at war), Germany has enough forces to make any landing a new Dieppe (until Americans come up with the nuke, but this is another TL, isn't it).

 

[pompejus]

I never said that the Soviets didn't inflict heavy cdasualties on the germans, and I never specified when the Soviets surrended.

My assumption is that the Soviets surrendered rather late, around 1944 or 43, giving the war-torn and defeated Germans less time to retreat. Meanwhile, partisans continue to ravage the German supplies.

But wow interesting thoughts...

If you want an more eastern iron curtain, don't let the soviets surrender. Without the soviets the war for the western allies becomes a lot harder, I suspect that the war continues long after 1945 (if it still can be won by the western allies). Also if the soviet union surrenders, it is gone, so you won't have a iron curtain. Sure some Russia can arise again, but it is far from certain that it will be communist or wealthy enough to become a superpower.

If you want a more eastern iron curtain, just let the Nazi's do better in the east, but not good enough to defeat the soviets. Avoid Stalingrad, maybe even let them capture Moscow without capturing any important soviet leaders, while the soviets manage to recapture the city quickly after it (or maybe a Stalingrad in Moscow). In the end the Nazi's still focus most of their troops on the Soviets; the western allies still invade France (or some country in the west, maybe Belgium or whatever) and the point where the two allies expect to meet is more to the east with west-Germany up to Berlin and Austria and the Czechs clearly in the western camp. Maybe you can get Poland on the western site, but that will be hard, certainly as the soviets will demand part of Germany. I expect Silesia, Pommern and Prussia to remain German and become soviet eastern Germany (with Poland possibly losing their eastern parts to the Soviet Union and gaining hardly any german territory).

 

[Mulder]

I guess in such a scenario, since the Western allies are in a position where they could demand more from the Soviets, Poland would retain some, but not all of their eastern territories (maybe Wilno and Lwow) and gain Danzig and East Prussia as a compensation for the territory they lost. In my opinion the most likely East-West German border would basically include all of Pomerania, Mecklenburg-Strelitz (the eastern part), East Berlin and the parts of Brandenburg east of it, Lower Silesia (Poland would still want Upper Silesia and I'm not sure Stalin would let East Germany keep it) and maybe Grenzmark Posen-Westpreussen (once again, Poland would want it, but it is just poor and rural and by far less valuable than either East Prussia or Upper Silesia). The result would of course still be that this East Germany is by far poorer than its OTL counterpart.

 

[Xen]

I wonder how did it happen, with Germany having a real army in France, as opposed to OTL shell-shocked bits and pieces of units mauled by Russian meat-grinder, considered unfit for Eastern Front...

Perhaps the Western Allies find France is a meat grinder? Lets say for the sake of argument the Allies decide that Normandy is not a good option and goes into Southern France where the defenses were much less formidible and gain a foot hold. The allies are forced to claw their way north through France AND Italy taking heavy casualties but are eventually able to liberate France. A clearly frustrated and angry United States sends more men to Europe (the US had 9,000,000 in arms during the tail end of the war, only the USSR and Germany had more I believe). The Germans can not defend against both the USSR and USA in those numbers and thus have to choose which one to lose ground too. Of course in such a scenario I can see the Germans negotiating with one side or the other to end hostitlities so they can concentrate on the other power.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

If the Soviets are still in the war but suffered greater defeats in the first half then there might be adjustments in the Iron Curtain, particularly if the Western Allies embark on diversionary efforts in Scandinavia or the Balkans, but if the Soviets are out entirely then either Hitler wins or the US flames much of Germany with atomic weapons.

 

[T3h_shammy]

What about the absolutely gigantic Red Army, the one who could have defeated Hitler without US support, albeit a few months later?

Say what? Why do people throw Lend-Lease under the bus so easily. People don't realize its value to the Soviets. It let them work entirely on weapons of war. Specialization of an economy to an extreme if you will. I don't think they could go at it alone.

 

[Eurofed]

If you want a more eastern iron curtain, just let the Nazi's do better in the east, but not good enough to defeat the soviets. Avoid Stalingrad, maybe even let them capture Moscow without capturing any important soviet leaders, while the soviets manage to recapture the city quickly after it (or maybe a Stalingrad in Moscow). In the end the Nazi's still focus most of their troops on the Soviets; the western allies still invade France (or some country in the west, maybe Belgium or whatever) and the point where the two allies expect to meet is more to the east with west-Germany up to Berlin and Austria and the Czechs clearly in the western camp. Maybe you can get Poland on the western site, but that will be hard, certainly as the soviets will demand part of Germany. I expect Silesia, Pommern and Prussia to remain German and become soviet eastern Germany (with Poland possibly losing their eastern parts to the Soviet Union and gaining hardly any german territory).

It is correct that the Soviets being much less successful than IOTL and ending the war with the Eastern front still within their own borders is the key to keep the Iron Curtain rather more eastern than OTL, but if the Soviets have no military foothold in Central and Eastern Europe, and hence no plausible political justification to claim a sphere of influence there, by the same reason they have no strategic foothold or political justification to claim an occupation zone in Germany itself. The two things would be wholly contradictory. If Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Romania remain in the Western camp, the Soviets perforce have no occupation zone in Grossdeutchsland whatsoever.

 

[pompejus]

It is correct that the Soviets being much less successful than IOTL and ending the war with the Eastern front still within their own borders is the key to keep the Iron Curtain rather more eastern than OTL, but if the Soviets have no military foothold in Central and Eastern Europe, and hence no plausible political justification to claim a sphere of influence there, by the same reason they have no strategic foothold or political justification to claim an occupation zone in Germany itself. The two things would be wholly contradictory. If Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Romania remain in the Western camp, the Soviets perforce have no occupation zone in Grossdeutchsland whatsoever.

True, that is why I was just talking about an Iron curtain east of the Czech republic and part of East-Germany. Poland, Rumania, Slowakia and Hungary still fall in the Soviet sphere. I think it is a lot harder to place the Curtain even more to the east, as the Germans will stop focussing most of its troops to the Soviets if the western Allies threathen the German core lands. Why fight for Moscow if Berlin is about to fall. This slows the western advances and strengthens the soviet ones. In the end the iron curtain still lies in Germany, but more to the east.

 

[Sigma7]

I was watching a documentary recently about Rommel that included a number of interviews with some of his former staff officers.

According to the documentary and corraborated by the staff officers, Rommel was convinced after the allied breakout from Normandy that the war was unwinnable and at the time he was injured in the straffing run, (July 17,1944) he was either seriously considering or on the verge of surrendering his entire command in the hopes of bringing the war to an end, thus saving his troops, the allies and Germany further fighting and destruction.

Had Rommel not been injured in that straffing run and maintained his command and in turn surrendered his entire force on the western front in late July of 1944, could that have stemmed the Russian advance further into eastern and central Europe?

If the entire western front collapses, there's absolutely nothing to keep the Americans and British from sprinting across Germany to take Berlin and chances are such an utter collapse and the urging of such a respected figure such as Rommel not to resist western allied troops may very well see the Nazis removed from power shortly thereafter, producing a provisional government intent on surrendering specifically to the west to save them from invasion from the Soviets.

Realistically, Churchill and Roosevelt, if offered, have no other choice than to accept the German surrender and agree to a seperate peace if neccessary.

1944 is an election year in the U.S. and if Roosevelt refuses a seperate peace, I can't see him remaining in office for long; his own party would impeach him to save themselves from the inevitable voter backlash at the polls that would follow a refusal for peace just to placate Stalin's need for land and revenge. Also, why expend more troops to Europe than neccessary when there's still a very brutal and nowhere near finished war raging in the Pacific?

Churchill, with his disdain for Stalin, I presume takes the German surrender as quickly as it's offered, checking the Soviet expansion of their sphere of influence on the continent being in everybody's best interest, even if "everybody" in Churchill's mind at the time is him and him alone. He's still got a war in the Pacific to fight too and the sooner these wars are finished, the sooner Britain can get back to the business of preserving her empire.

Possible?

 

[Eurofed]

True, that is why I was just talking about an Iron curtain east of the Czech republic and part of East-Germany. Poland, Rumania, Slowakia and Hungary still fall in the Soviet sphere. I think it is a lot harder to place the Curtain even more to the east, as the Germans will stop focussing most of its troops to the Soviets if the western Allies threathen the German core lands. Why fight for Moscow if Berlin is about to fall. This slows the western advances and strengthens the soviet ones. In the end the iron curtain still lies in Germany, but more to the east.

Your point is one reason why a more eastern Iron Curtain that theoretically still divides Germany might exist. However, it is also true that the vast majority of PoDs that create a more eastern Iron Curtain, such as a successful Walkyrie in 1943-44, an Anglo-American successful landing in the Balkans in 1943-44 instead of Italy and/or France, or a more successful Axis that manages to defeat the USSR or stalemate the Soviets within their borders and to repel Allied landings in Europe and is felled by nukes, would leave all of Greater Germany in the Western bloc. This because pretty much any alternative German leadership but OTL Hitler in the bunker would go to all extents to avoid Soviet occupation of Germany even when they accept a compromise peace or a conditional surrender, and because the lesser the Red Army reaches in Central and Eastern Europe the lesser ground they have to claim an occupation zone in Germany.

Depending on specific PoDs and subsequent military butterflies, you may have the ATL Iron Curtain being placed:

A) on the Brest-Litovsk/1991 Russian border, with Russia proper remaining Soviet, whileas Ukraine, Belarus, the Baltic states and the rest of Central and Eastern Europe (including Finland keeping its 1939 territories and all of Karelia) are in the Western bloc. Typical PoD for this: Germany wins a decisive but not complete victory on Russia in 1941-43 and signs a Brest-Litovsk peace, however somehow this does not crack the will to fight of the Anglo-Americans, who defeat the Nazi Empire with nukes. This could also be the result of Hitler being overthrown by the March 1943 Valkyrie plot.

B) on the 1939 or 1941 Soviet border, with the USSR keeping its pre-war
territories (with or without the 1939-41 conquest, depending on military-diplomatic butterflies), but the rest of Central and Eastern Europe is in the Western bloc (including Finland). Germany is more successful in the Eastern front in 1942-44, but is unwilling or unable to reach a separate peace on Brest-Litovsk and is still fighting the Soviets within their territory when the Allies land in the Balkans or drop the nukes. Alternatively, Germany reaches a status quo ante separate peace with Russia in 1943-44, does not achieve peace with the Western Allies, and is nuked. This could also be the result of Hitler being overthrown by the March 1943 Valkyrie plot.

C) Germany is not able to avoid the Soviet strategic breakthrough in the southern Balkans, but does not suffer the Bagration debacle. As a result, when Germany is felled by Allied nukes or D-Day, the Baltic countries, Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia, and Bosnia go into the Soviet Sphere, whileas Grossdeutchsland, Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia, and Croatia remain in the Western bloc. Depending on the occurence and timeschedule of an Allied landing in Greece, Albania and Greece may either go in the Western or Soviet bloc. Romania may end in the Soviet bloc as a whole, or the Iron Curtain may divide it on the Carpathians (in such a case, Hungary may keep Northern Transylvania). Likewise, Stalin may balance the lack of gains in Central Europe by invading Finland and making it a Communist satellite, and do likewise with Finnmark (this however surely causes Sweden to join NATO). This could be the result of a successful July 1944 Valkyrie, and a post-Nazi Germany achieving a conditional surrender to the Western Allies.

D) As above, but Germany is less successful to contain Soviet breakthrough in Central Europe, albeit partially so. Depending on military butterflies, the final German-Soviet front, and hence the Iron Curtain when the Western Allies fell Germany with D-Day or nukes or post-Nazi regime surrenders, may divide Poland (either on the Vistula or the Warta) and Hungary (on the Danube), or perhaps it lies on the pre-war German-Polish border (but Danzig and East Prussia go in the Soviet bloc) and on the Grossdeutchsland-Hungarian border. Butterflies for Greece and Finland as above, (East) Poland may be an SSR or an independent satellite, Slovenia and Croatia may go in the Western or Soviet bloc depending on where the final front line lies in Hungary.

E) The Western Allies conquer Berlin and Vienna and the final demarcation line is on the Oder-Neisse or the Oder, and the Grossdeutchsland-Hungarian border. The Soviets get all their OTL stuff (butterflies for Greece and Finland as above) but their occupation zone in Germany is Pomerania and Silesia. Brandenburg, Saxony, and Austria are within the Western occupation zone. Slovakia is Soviet, whileas Czechia may go either way, depending on military and diplomatic butterflies.