A more devastating raid on Taranto

What if the Admiral Cunningham had managed to inflict more damage to the Regia Marina Italiana(Italian Royal Navy) with Operation Judgement(the attack on Taranto)? In other words, he destroyed or damaged all the vessels, including all 6 battleships, and all the harbor facilities? How would this have affected the sea war in the Mediterranean?
 
"Whale" assumes an early POD to give a much better FAA

I think bigman is proposing a later and/or lesser POD
that means Cunningham could do more damage but not have significantly more resources post Judgement than OTL

IMHO its unreasonable to expect Illustrious by itself could do much more than OTL
- but lets say Eagle avoids its mishaps and contributes another 12 or so attackers.

Unfortunately even 3 dozen string bags aren't enough to take out the battleships AND wreck the harbour or even seriously attack the cruisers and destroyers in the inner harbour

The RN would still have to give BBs in the Grand Mare priority - especially for torpedoes

In OTL Eagle's aircrews were actually rated as more experienced than Lusty's so
More hits on more ships is a reasonable outcome
and if Italian damage control is worse (or their luck with running aground doesn't hold)
then that could well mean 3 BB as CTL + 3 damaged during the first night
(rather than 1+2 as OTL)

IMHO - thats a quite plausible POD
 
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When the Eagle is unable to participate you could have the Ark Royal take her place even if the raid has to be further delayed to allow this. Her Skuas would play merry hell with Tarantos facilities and other ships in port while the Swordfish deal with the Battleships. Of course she'd have to run like hell to get out of range before then Italian Air Force found her. Without the llustrious's armour any bombs that hit would be desaterous.
 
Immediate and obvious impact

with no RM force to threaten

17 Nov : Operation White succeeds

the Ark and Argus sail further east than OTL and deliver up to an extra 11 fighters to Malta

20 Nov Operation Collar sails on schedule with only its DD and CA escort
reaching Malta and then Alex arriving some days before OTL

Little changes but potentially the start of an avalanche of dominos
e.g.
The extra squadron of fighters kill a few extra bombers
but disrupt a lot of raids reducing damage to Hal Far and Luqa

(even grounded a/c provide much needed spares for the remainder)

Force H can strike in the Western Med basin

Force D from Alex can operate against the open flank of the Italian Army
15" shells from Ramilles

The main fleet with Warspite and Illustrious can be more proactive in the dodecanese
 
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Which PoD do you think?
I vote for waiting for the Ark when they realise Eagle can't make it for one thing it'll change the attitude to Divebombers, and emphasise the importance of large airwings (Ark Royal's 60 to Illustrious' 36).
 
I'd vote for Eagle being available on the 11th

Primarily because its a smaller POD but also because it keeps the Taranto on its OTL schedule

the OTL Judgement was part of an overarching set of operations (MB8):
  • 6 separate naval forces (in addition at least two met and exchanged components)
  • Effectively 5 convoys (tho two held no merchantmen with skilled men and key supplies on fast warships)
  • 1 cruiser raid (that sank 4 merchant men plus an escort)
  • 2 separate carrier airstrikes - the sucker punch being Judgement itself
A CV was needed to cover the Western half of this waltz
including 'Crack' an air attack on airfields in Corsica

so although using the Ark - with more Swordfish than Lusty + a squadron of Skuas - is a temptation
Occams razors prefers the lesser change

Of course IF Eagle is fully operational, Judgement might have gone ahead 3 weeks earlier - Trafalgar Day would have been nice

I accept your points about the appreciation of dive bombers and larger number of a/c
but Eagle and Illustrious would also show the use of a large strike from a CV Task group

for an earlier date the deception plan would have been different and maybe the Ark could also have been used more fully
(I vaguely remember reading that prewar planning had consider a 3 CV strike any way using F,C & G ious)
 
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If you dont want to use Arkm you can always make the raid a two-night affair as was the original intention.
A fully operational Eagle plus a double raid will do a lot more damage.
 
in OTL the second night was cancelled due to weather

so assuming the same date that is still ruled out

AIUI The actual delay from Trafalgar Day to Nov 11th (the next suitable phase of the moon)
was down to the problems on Illustrious

Eagle shock damage was a separate issue, happening as early as 12 October
Unfortunately the effects weren't found till early November, resulting in the old carrier being 'benched' for OTL Judgement

The minimum POD would be that Eagles shock damage is noticed and fixed in Mid October
That would rule her out for Trafalgar Day
but If Lusty has similar but lesser issues, a fire but less damage, the timetable would still be changed as OTL
bringing Eagle back into play

That would give 30+ attackers on the night of the 11th

and if the contaminated fuel could also be noticed it might be 36+
 
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Or have the POD further back - Glorious has a different commanding officer and isn't sunk by the 'twins' off Norway. After a minor refit - she rejoins the RN in the Med and is available with the Illustrious +/- Eagle. Glorious IMO would still have Skuas - in the second wave when it's all lit up - doubt if they'd want to dive in the dark!!
 
See "Happy and Glorious" thread

for a VERY complete TL where Glorious survives and prospers

or "The Whale has Wings" for an even deeper divergence when the FAA is allowed full independence in 1930 and is able carry out most of its planned program


I think in some ways this is a more interesting POD leading to smaller and subtler changes

little advantages accruing almost imperceptibly until finally you realise the position has fundamentally changed

like a Steinitz pawn opening rather than a Morphy blitz on the chessboard :eek:
 
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