A more calculating Saddam

In our timeline Saddam Hussein was banking on the fact that the US and its allies would not be willing to go to war to liberate Kuwait. Obviously this plan did not work out for him as the coalition built up their forces and then decimated Saddam’s military driving them out of Kuwait. But what if after conquering Kuwait Saddam decided to be more proactive in his response?

After successfully conquering Kuwait Saddam Hussein began a massive public relations campaign to justify the invasion that Kuwait should have never been a separate country in the first place and was a result of British imperialism. He then moves into a campaign of blaming imperialism/Zionism from the US, UK and Israel of being the biggest threat to peace and unity in the Arab world.

The US began deploying forces to Saudi Arabia and the USS Eisenhower and Independence arrived in the Persian Gulf. Saddam then reached out to King Fahd and tells him Iraq has no territorial ambitions in Saudi Arabia and wants to sign a treaty of friendship with Saudi Arabia provide they expel all the western forces from their nation. Saudi Arabia doesn’t trust Iraq and turns down his offer. Saddam then begins publically blasting Saudi Arabia as being controlled by imperialist infidels and the House of Saud is not a worthy protector of the holy cities of Mecca and Medina.

In early September 1990 Saddam decides it’s time to act rather than let the US continue to build up its forces in the region. He puts his forces on high alert and launches a salvo of Scud missiles at Israel while immediately publically proclaiming many governments of the Middle East are weak and controlled by the Zionist/imperialists. He calls on all Arabs to unite to drive the westerners out and free the Palestinians from Israel, he also calls on all Arabs to overthrow any corrupt governments that are controlled by the Zionist/imperialists. Saddam purposely only targets Israel assuming the US forces in the region will need to respond and he can then accuse Saudi Arabia of allowing their territory to be used by the US to defend Israel.

The US is immediately thrust into a tough spot. Israel of course wants to respond threatening to expand the conflict throughout the entire region and shatter the coalition the US has been working on building.
 
There is a possibility it follows the OTL. The main reason for Saddam's invasion was Saddam's anger over how OPEC was driving the price of oil down which was done by the Saudis who wants to always control the oil market. Saudis see the threat and bring us in the other Arab nations are going to ignore Saddam's rants about infidels because they don't think he is being sincere.
 
There is a possibility it follows the OTL. The main reason for Saddam's invasion was Saddam's anger over how OPEC was driving the price of oil down which was done by the Saudis who wants to always control the oil market. Saudis see the threat and bring us in the other Arab nations are going to ignore Saddam's rants about infidels because they don't think he is being sincere.

I agree most of the other leaders in the Middle East wouldn't believe him, but if he can get Israel to enter the war the other Arab leaders have to worry about public opinion and would have to worry about appearing to be supporting Israel.

The US was barely able to keep Israel from attacking Iraq during Desert Storm and wasn't able to fully stop Iraq from launching Scuds. In this scenario they are going to have less forces available to try to stop the launches making it much harder to convince Israel to stay on the sidelines and let the US handle everything.
 

TinyTartar

Banned
The thing about Saddam doing PR campaigns is that he always did them OTL. The issue is that they were complete bullshit and would be in this case as well.

Remember his minister of information during 2003's war claiming that the American Infidels were being killed in the tens of thousands and were not in Baghdad? As tanks were busting down the gates of the palace?

The fact of the matter is that public opinion was with Saddam in areas of the Arab world to an extent, but it did not translate to shit. Jordanians were very supportive of him, yet the government knew who buttered their bread and stayed out of things. The Syrians knew that it was a bad idea as well despite pro-Saddam newspapers operating with notable sway.

Painting the war as an anti Zionist struggle would help, of course, but Egypt is not up for round 4 of getting humiliated in the Sinai and losing 20,000 killed, wounded, and captured to the Zionist entity in the span of days. Jordan once again would not go against the US, and finally, Syria would not attack without hope for success, and in 1991, they were hopelessly outclassed by Israel. And there is a risk that doing so would lead Israel to take a harder line on Lebanon.
 
The thing about Saddam doing PR campaigns is that he always did them OTL. The issue is that they were complete bullshit and would be in this case as well.

Remember his minister of information during 2003's war claiming that the American Infidels were being killed in the tens of thousands and were not in Baghdad? As tanks were busting down the gates of the palace?

The fact of the matter is that public opinion was with Saddam in areas of the Arab world to an extent, but it did not translate to shit. Jordanians were very supportive of him, yet the government knew who buttered their bread and stayed out of things. The Syrians knew that it was a bad idea as well despite pro-Saddam newspapers operating with notable sway.

Painting the war as an anti Zionist struggle would help, of course, but Egypt is not up for round 4 of getting humiliated in the Sinai and losing 20,000 killed, wounded, and captured to the Zionist entity in the span of days. Jordan once again would not go against the US, and finally, Syria would not attack without hope for success, and in 1991, they were hopelessly outclassed by Israel. And there is a risk that doing so would lead Israel to take a harder line on Lebanon.

True, also once the Americans were ready to commit what they were committing to they didn't want to get on America's bad side.
 
It would've been more realistic that Saddam Hussein kept his western hostages instead of releasing them and then drove straight into Saudi Arabia before significant U.S. and other forces arrived.
 
True, also once the Americans were ready to commit what they were committing to they didn't want to get on America's bad side.

That's true, even if Israel does fly over Syria or Jordan on its way to bomb Iraq after the Scud launches that doesn't mean they would have to go to war with Israel. They could public condemn the violation of their air space and threaten to shoot down any Israel planes that flyover their territory to placate their public, but then not actually do anything about it.
 
That's true, even if Israel does fly over Syria or Jordan on its way to bomb Iraq after the Scud launches that doesn't mean they would have to go to war with Israel. They could public condemn the violation of their air space and threaten to shoot down any Israel planes that flyover their territory to placate their public, but then not actually do anything about it.

The Jordanians and Syria would fuss and bother but if Iraq had just launched an unprovoked chemical strike against Israel they aren't going to jump in for another round of get fucked by the Israeli military. International opinion is going to be against Saddam and the Americans won't be far behind Israel. Jordan and Syria aren't going to be throwing their lot into a war with Israel when its also going to involve the West.
 
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