IOTL the Lithuanians expanded from their base on the Baltic periphery to the Black Sea in an amazing run of vassalization and annexation. What if instead of expanding into the lands of the former Kievan Rus, they incorporate the neighboring lands of Prussia and Livonia, which from the 13th century onwards became bases for the Teutonic and Livonian Orders, respectively. Had the Lithuanians managed to expand pre-emptively into these lands and deny them as bases to these crusading orders, does the long term independence of Lithuania better secured? This would have resulted in a completely pagan state rather than the OTL majority Orthodox Grand Duchy of Lithuania. I assume that eventually they Christianize, but perhaps a century later and with more synchretic elements. Diplomatically being majority pagan might even help diplomatically, as they would not be cast as heathen overlords of Christians. Thoughts?