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This idea has been sitting at the back of my head for maybe a week now, and I thought I might throw it out there to see if there was anything to it.

OTL, Mussolini deployed significant forces in 1940 against France along the Alps, against France in western Libya, against Greece in Albania and against the British in eastern Libya and Italian East Africa, something that was way beyond the capabilities of Italy's armed forces.

Also, instead of attacking immediately in Egypt and east Africa and trying to catch the British off guard, he basically sat back (except for the disaster in the Alps) and waited for a quick end to the war and then, when peace was not forthcoming, he finally invaded Egypt and Greece with well-known results.

Now, my question is how could the Italians have put on a better show with their existing resources ? Could they have taken Egypt before the British had a chance to build up ?

Maybe the POD could be that Mussolini listens to Balbo more. He seemed to be a man who understood the effect of modern technology on warfare and was more keen on having an adequately supplied and armed force rather than a mass of useless and impossible to supply poorly-armed conscripts.

Here's a quote from him: "It is not the number of men which causes me anxiety but their weapons ... equipped with limited and very old pieces of artillery, almost lacking anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons ... it is useless to send more thousands of men if we cannot supply them with the indispensable requirements to move and fight."

Here are some ideas, without any particular order of importance, on how the Italians might do better in the short term:


  1. Focus on Egypt and East Africa
  2. Scrap the invasion of Greece. Send whatever quality material gathered in Albania OTL to the 10th Army in Cyrenaica. Greece can be taken later, once the British are neutralized
  3. Scrap the attack on the French Alps. May not be possible because of political reasons.
  4. Keep only a skeleton force in Tripolitania to guard against an unlikely French attack. Send their best men and equipment east for the invasion of Egypt.
  5. Have a more aggressive commander in charge of the 10th Army
  6. Plan ahead for the invasion of Egypt. Have it be the surprise knock-out blow Balbo envisioned
  7. Organize a way to get at least a trickle of supplies into Abbisinia. This may include a small airstrip in south-east Libya or maybe tiny caravans heading through the desert and somehow across the Nile.
  8. Send most of the colonial soldiers used in Africa home. Only use them for garrisoning fortified locations or counter-insurgency operations. This should improve the logistical situation at least a little bit
  9. Exception to the above: the Somalian Dubats and Eritreean Askaris.
  10. Compensate for the lack of motorized transport available to the 10th Army for its invasion of Egypt by employing the 600 mules Graziani at one point requested, and also about maybe twice as many camels taken from the local Libyans.
  11. Launch airstrikes against British targets (airfields, depots, command & control centers) immediately after the declaration of war. OTL something like this had some success in Kenya.
  12. Invade Malta on day 1
  13. Mine the Red Sea both sides of the Bab el Mandeb as well as the entrance to the Persian gulf before the British can react
  14. More submarines and commerce raiders in the Red Sea and Indian Ocean
  15. Build up substantial supply depots close to the Egyptian border prior to the outbreak of war
  16. Put pressure on the British in Egypt and make use of the overwhelming advantage in numbers. Try to minimize the effects of their superior mobility. (maybe something like the Brusilov offensive - strike everywhere at once ?)
  17. Have the Germans force the Vichy government sell most of its trucks in NA to Italy ASAP.
  18. Send a squadron of ships filled with troops to take over Port Sudan on day 1 ala German operations in Norway. Then blow up whatever you can, scuttle a ship or two to block the entrance and then head back for Massawa. This should seriously hamper British attempts to build up a force in southern Sudan for an invasion of Abbisinia.
  19. Conduct small raids against British outposts in Sudan, Kenya and Aden, but nothing major, in order to preserve supplies. Invade British Somaliland after the French surrender
  20. Offer as much support as quickly as possible to Iraq once it rebels against the British. It might just turn the tide in favor of the Iraqis. OTL efforts were too little to late.

Now, are these things in any way useful ? Are they enough to get the Italians to the Suez ?

Assuming they are, and the Italians somehow do manage to reach Suez, gain Iraq as an ally and cause some serious headaches to the British in East Africa and the Indian Ocean, how does the situation evolve ? Obviously their position is untenable in the long term, but what kind of an effect might such a success generate in other theaters ?

Barbarossa 2 weeks early ? Nazi conquest of Leningrad with the help of the forces that OTL went to NA ? Fall of Churchill's government to a no-confidence vote ?

Also, how long would it take for the British to kick them out ?

Finally, what other ideas do you guys have ? Also, what kind of measures might be required in the medium and long term to make the Italian army at least decently effective ?
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