A Mongolian America: New Great Yuan

So in this timeline, as the Yuan Dynasty in China collapses in 1368, some loyalists and Mongol military personnel board ships that flee China across the Pacific. These ships eventually arrive in OTL California, and by the time Columbus arrives in the Bahamas in 1492, the self-proclaimed "New Great Yuan" have spread across half of North America, making peace with many native societies. The "New World" was still a "discovery" because the ships that left never made contact with the Ming dynasty, leading to the belief that the fleet had simply disappeared into the ocean. After Spanish colonists made contact with the NGY, it was realized that the ships that departed in 1368 were of Yuan origin. The decline of the NGY began when colonization of the Americas took off in the mid-to-late 1500s and early 1600s, with the NGY going from almost half of all of North America to only an area slightly bigger than OTL California. Updates coming
 
There is some problems:

Pacific is hellish large to cross and really difficult to navigate from East Asia to California. Futhermore Mongols hadn't even ocean cabable ships. These even didn't survive from invasion to Japan. And what would make them decide to take trip over unknown sea without being sure that there even is anything.

Perhaps better would be try establish that Yuan Empire to Philipphines or Australia.
 
There is some problems:

Pacific is hellish large to cross and really difficult to navigate from East Asia to California. Futhermore Mongols hadn't even ocean cabable ships. These even didn't survive from invasion to Japan. And what would make them decide to take trip over unknown sea without being sure that there even is anything.

Perhaps better would be try establish that Yuan Empire to Philipphines or Australia.
I would offer that perhaps the Mongols commence a form of 'island-hopping' similar to what the US did in WWII, except in reverse.
This is a long shot, to be sure..but consider...
Mongols first invade Phillippines from bases in southeast China and Taiwan. NOT THE ENTIRE PHILLIPPINE ISLAND GROUP, just perhaps Luzon and a couple of the islands close to them. Over a short period of time they would spread their authority to the rest of the islands.....
They next sail to New Guinea and either colonize or conquer the island, which would put them within jumping distance from the Solomon and Caroline Islands....
Take those islands next, and continue to make improvements on their ship designs along the way, enabling them to reach Hawaii......
Now here is where it could get tricky, sailing from Hawaii to California or even Baja California would be the most difficult because there are no islands between Hawaii and California. BUT, if they've made enough improvements on their ship designs, they could in theory reach the western seaboard.

One additional point, they could colonize the northern and northeastern coasts of Australia for the timber supply they would need for the construction of their ships. Whether or not they decide to go further down the eastern coast and deeper inland would depend on them.

I say again that this is a long shot, but I say it because the ocean currents in the Pacific generally do not allow for easy navigation from eastern Asia to western North America. Thus a direct route from Shanghai to San Francisco would take several days with the best weather (which is also not guaranteed). Their best chance of traversing the Pacific to reach California would have to be the island-hopping as in addition to establishing outposts along the route they would establish, they could always get provisions and again additional timber to build more ships.
 
Question being, of course, why they'd even think to go that far. Even the Polynesians took centuries to expand to Hawaii... and the Mongols are firmly landlubbers.
 
More plausible if some ships from the ill-fated Mongol invasion of Java got lost on the way back to China. Maybe a storm can separate some of those ships from the rest of the fleet. From Indonesia, the surviving Mongol ships can island hop the outlying islands from New Guinea to the Solomons, Melanesia and Polynesia. The currents can take them all the way maybe to central America in about 7 months maybe.
 
It would be very hard of them to get so far, and the Mongols of that time period were no longer the superb soldiers they had been in Genghis Khan's time.
 
The Ming remnant’s invasion of Taiwan under Koxinga is the closest analog to what you’re proposing. That invasion had 3 additional centuries of naval technological advancement including exposure to European ship designs+maps and covered much smaller distances (180 km vs. 5,800 km Hawaii to California). Investing in improved shipbuilding during Yuan rule is likely a must here.

Another factor is what could push the Mongols to take the plunge and risk flight across the ocean. The Ming were able to expand so quickly partly because they offered surprising leniency to surrendering Yuan officials.

When the Ming reached Guangzhou historically, He Zhen, the local commander didn’t take to the sea for an oceanic migration with the Yuan coastal forces. Instead he was offered titles, posts in the new gov., and a comfy retirement, he surrendered, and the Ming followed through with all their promises. ATL, a more prolonged, violent rebellion spearheaded by the no-mercy Red Turbans rather than the softer Zhu Yuanzhang could serve as the push factor.
 
Pacific is hellish large to cross and really difficult to navigate from East Asia to California.
I say again that this is a long shot, but I say it because the ocean currents in the Pacific generally do not allow for easy navigation from eastern Asia to western North America. Thus a direct route from Shanghai to San Francisco would take several days with the best weather (which is also not guaranteed). Their best chance of traversing the Pacific to reach California would have to be the island-hopping as in addition to establishing outposts along the route they would establish, they could always get provisions and again additional timber to build more ships.
This objectively false and I don't understand why it keeps being repeated on site, and its easy to look at ocean current maps and wind maps to verify this. Here are the trade winds and westerties:

Map_prevailing_winds_on_earth.png
North_Pacific_Subtropical_Convergence_Zone.jpg

Notice how the prevailing winds near the equator blow west? Going island hopping from the Philippines or Melanesia requires a ship to go entirely against the wind for the whole way across, but going northeast you hit the westerlies and sail strait across. Similarly, the North Pacific Gyre moves clockwise, so sailing through the equator requires sailing against the current and going northeast does not.

We know this from more than just looking at wind and current maps though, because we need only look to the Spanish Manila Galleon route to see that this route works in practice. Going this way also spits you out right around Cape Mendocino, so just outside of San Francisco Bay.
Andres_Urdaneta_Tornaviaje.jpg
Manila-Accapulco_galleon_trade_route%2C_showing_onward_route_to_Spain.png


There is some problems:

Pacific is hellish large to cross and really difficult to navigate from East Asia to California.
The Manila route is a lot less far than most people think it is. Going from Edo Bay to San Francisco Bay along it is only a journey of ~5,000 miles, which is not remarkable more than Columbus's 4,000 mile journey from Seville to the Bahamas.

Futhermore Mongols hadn't even ocean cabable ships. These even didn't survive from invasion to Japan. And what would make them decide to take trip over unknown sea without being sure that there even is anything.
This however is problem. Without ocean going ships you can't make the journey. The only way to do it at that point is going along Kamchatka -> Chukotka -> Aleuts -> Alaska -> down the coast, and that begs the question of why would the Yuan sail into the frozen north rather than just return to the steppes as OTL.
 
This objectively false and I don't understand why it keeps being repeated on site, and its easy to look at ocean current maps and wind maps to verify this. Here are the trade winds and westerties:

Map_prevailing_winds_on_earth.png
North_Pacific_Subtropical_Convergence_Zone.jpg

Notice how the prevailing winds near the equator blow west? Going island hopping from the Philippines or Melanesia requires a ship to go entirely against the wind for the whole way across, but going northeast you hit the westerlies and sail strait across. Similarly, the North Pacific Gyre moves clockwise, so sailing through the equator requires sailing against the current and going northeast does not.

We know this from more than just looking at wind and current maps though, because we need only look to the Spanish Manila Galleon route to see that this route works in practice. Going this way also spits you out right around Cape Mendocino, so just outside of San Francisco Bay.
Andres_Urdaneta_Tornaviaje.jpg
Manila-Accapulco_galleon_trade_route%2C_showing_onward_route_to_Spain.png



The Manila route is a lot less far than most people think it is. Going from Edo Bay to San Francisco Bay along it is only a journey of ~5,000 miles, which is not remarkable more than Columbus's 4,000 mile journey from Seville to the Bahamas.


This however is problem. Without ocean going ships you can't make the journey. The only way to do it at that point is going along Kamchatka -> Chukotka -> Aleuts -> Alaska -> down the coast, and that begs the question of why would the Yuan sail into the frozen north rather than just return to the steppes as OTL.

Still them should have idea that on going to eastward is some point and there should be land. Columbus had idea that going far enough to west he would reach Asia. But I don't think that Mongols would have such idea.
 
I think the point about Ocean going vessels is the largest key here. The Mongols have very little naval tradition of their own (with the exception of Japan and Java), and some of the key advancements to longer transoceanic voyages done by the Ming or the Europeans might not have been developed yet. It is more likely for the Javanese expedition to get blown off course and land in Australia, establishing themselves "horselords of the outback".

Furthermore, where has this NGY established themselves? Mesoamerica? California? Anything further inland or south is extremely unlikely
 
The 1293 Mongol invasion of Java I believe was an el-Nino year. It might be possible to have some of the Mongol ships get prevented from sailing back to China, being at the mercy of the drastic wind changes that influence the flow of the currents. During an El Nino year, the current increases in strength powered by the changing wind directions. This could take the Mongol fleet to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (doldrums) where the winds are calm but conditions can be erratic with the sudden appearances of squalls and thunderstorms.
 
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