A modified Talleyrand Plan

OTL the Talleyrand Plan involved partitioning Belgium between a British Antwerp protectorate, the Netherlands, a French south, and a Prussian Luxembourg (more or less). The British weren't big on the idea, not wanting continental holdings.

What if Belgium had been similarly partitioned but in a three-way fashion, with the Antwerp Free State remaining part of the Netherlands?

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Hecatee

Donor
Flanders is still catholic... And the region East of Namur is wallonian/french speaking, not German speaking, while there is no reason why Dutch Limburg should become german... But in such a scenario France gets a big boost in coal and potential industry, especially if it gets even part of the Liege/Seraing industrial zone (which was already proto-industrialized and would be one of the main starting area of industrialization in the european mainland)
 
Flanders is still catholic... And the region East of Namur is wallonian/french speaking, not German speaking, while there is no reason why Dutch Limburg should become german... But in such a scenario France gets a big boost in coal and potential industry, especially if it gets even part of the Liege/Seraing industrial zone (which was already proto-industrialized and would be one of the main starting area of industrialization in the european mainland)

The western border of Prussia is on the Meuse River. Meanwhile, it's not as if the Netherlands didn't retain Catholic lands historically. Most of the population of the Netherlands south of the Rhine after 1830 was and is Catholic.

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I think this is a bit more likely than the Talleyrand plan. It solves of the two problems of the Talleyrand plan. First of all the Netherlands keeps Zeelandic Flanders, which had been Dutch since the revolution (and was partly protestant as seen in the map above) and remained in Dutch hands during the Belgian revolt. There is no way the Dutch would have it over. Secondly, it gets rid of the British protectorate, which the British don't realy want. There is still the problem of the Meusse border. In Vienna it was decided that Prussia would lose all the areas bordering the river Meusse, suddenly a couple of years later Prussia gets a Meusse border again? While doing basicly nothing? Doesn't seem right to me. I think a more reasonable solution is giver the Netherlands all of Limburg, give Prussia Luxemburg and Eastern Liege and give France the rest.

I think this would be reasonable borders ad relatively stable. I suspect a lot of upperclass (and thus Francophone) Flemish will move to France. Probably earlier emancipation of catholics, since they will I think be a majority now, although not by much (it depends on the exact border, are Dendermonde, Mechelen and Aalst in France or not?, I can't tell). The Netherlands will be slightly stronger and maybe a bit richer in the 19th earlier 20th century (although Flanders wasn't terribly rich either in those days). Maybe a slightly larger colonial empire (they might keep Dutch goldcoast, or a larger part of Borneo). It will probably bad for all Flemish living in France now, they will end up like the Flemish in Dunkirk.

For France this will be good, very good. They will have most of the Belgian industrial areas, especialy if they gain more of the Liege province as I sugested. I wonder (and hope) they would be more of a match against the Germans. Although Prussia gains some, the French gains are more significant. A balance of power between France and Germany would probably benefit all of Europe, certainly of both world wars are butterflied away.
 
Why should the plan be limited to decisions made at the Congress of Vienna? At Vienna it was decided to have a United Netherlands and to constrain France, yet clearly that isn't working out here. I could see Prussia getting a boundary on the Meuse, particularly due to a desire to limit what gains France might make.

Why was it decided at Vienna that Prussia would not be near the Meuse?

Dendermonde, Mechelen and Aalst seem to be in France, but I could be wrong.



Your boundaries are somewhat like those below I imagine?


upload_2018-11-27_14-53-9.png


Additionally, could the Netherlands perhaps gain some Prussian territory? Cleves and Moers come to mind given their Dutch past. Maybe the whole slice of the Rhineland between Limburg and the Rhine could work, assuming the Dutch keep Limburg here.
 
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The western border of Prussia is on the Meuse River. Meanwhile, it's not as if the Netherlands didn't retain Catholic lands historically. Most of the population of the Netherlands south of the Rhine after 1830 was and is Catholic.

I knew the southern regions (conquered later) were mostly Catholic but I am surprised there were so many Catholics in parts of the original seven provinces. Did religious toleration vary from one province to the next?
 
For France this will be good, very good. They will have most of the Belgian industrial areas, especialy if they gain more of the Liege province as I sugested. I wonder (and hope) they would be more of a match against the Germans. Although Prussia gains some, the French gains are more significant. A balance of power between France and Germany would probably benefit all of Europe, certainly of both world wars are butterflied away.
On the other hand, France now has a very vulnerable salient that it has to defend and that Prussia can easily cut off. Acquiring Wallonia doesn't necessarily remove the factors that led to Prussian victory, since it was more military and rail (and thus mobilisation) capabilities that determined the war, not economics and a bit of manpower. If anything, France's strategic depth is reduced considerably, with such an industrial region so close to the border. The Dutch would end up friendlier with Prussia with France right on the border (Napoleon still being in living memory), so it's not necessarily a net positive.
 
On the other hand, France now has a very vulnerable salient that it has to defend and that Prussia can easily cut off. Acquiring Wallonia doesn't necessarily remove the factors that led to Prussian victory, since it was more military and rail (and thus mobilisation) capabilities that determined the war, not economics and a bit of manpower. If anything, France's strategic depth is reduced considerably, with such an industrial region so close to the border. The Dutch would end up friendlier with Prussia with France right on the border (Napoleon still being in living memory), so it's not necessarily a net positive.

I'm sure the Dutch will favor Prussia in the short term, but if events follow similar to OTL and Prussia in the 1860s is aggressively expanding, will they still do so?

I'm not sure where France goes from here. Does it decide after this partition that the north-east border question is settled for good, and pursue other policy objectives?
 
Why should the plan be limited to decisions made at the Congress of Vienna? At Vienna it was decided to have a United Netherlands and to constrain France, yet clearly that isn't working out here. I could see Prussia getting a boundary on the Meuse, particularly due to a desire to limit what gains France might make.

The problem I have with any gains is that Prussia wasn't realy a party during the Belgian revolt. France was, since their supprt caused Belgian independence. The Netherlands (obviously) was, but Prussia wasn't and if Prussia was they would have supported the Netherlands. There is no reason for Prussia to gain any territory, except maybe Luxemburg, which was part of the German confederation and was actualy defended by Prussian troops. Thus I can see Prussia gaining Luxemburg, but not much else (the eastern part of Liege is just to create a better border).

Dendermonde, Mechelen and Aalst seem to be in France, but I could be wrong.
The problem with the map is that the border are too broad and rough to exactly determine this. they are very close to the border at least, on whatever side they are. Also I don't think these are ever meant to be exact borders. It was basicly a vague idea of Talleyrand that barely had any support.
Your boundaries are somewhat like those below I imagine?

Yeah, basicly this

Additionally, could the Netherlands perhaps gain some Prussian territory? Cleves and Moers come to mind given their Dutch past. Maybe the whole slice of the Rhineland between Limburg and the Rhine could work, assuming the Dutch keep Limburg here.
As compensation for the loss of Luxemburg? Doubtful. I see no reason for the Netherlands to get it and even less reason for the Prussians to give it away. Maybe during an alternative Vienna congress (Prussia gains Luxemburg, while the Netherlands gains Cleves, or whatever), but afterwards? No. (unless the Netherlands wins a war against Prussia....somehow.
 
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