A Mexican "Victory" 2.0: A Timeline

Update!


So What Exactly Happened in Puebla?

Even today most historians cannot agree on what exactly provoked the Puebla uprisings of 1848. However, most agree that the events where crucial in causing General Winfield Scott’s retreat from the Mexico City and the termination of the Mexican American War.

Since Santa Anna’s ascension to power Puebla had been in constant conflict with Federal government of Mexico City. This rivalry was defined by the struggle between liberals and conservatives, and between centralists and federalists that had plagued the nation from birth. When Precedent Herrera solidified his hold on the Presidency, no one could be more discontent with the outcome than the local elite of Puebla. It was not until the execution of Santa Anna that this antagonism was appeased and Puebla began to cooperate with the Federal government. But even then, when the American army approached the city, Puebla surrendered without a shot being fired.
But as the war progressed the local residents of the city had grown tired of their guests. Truthfully their guests had overextended their stay for quite some time. Not to mention that Scott’s Mexican collaborators, the Mexican Spy Company, where prone to looting and raiding local estates. There is much debate over what exactly was the spark that started the fire but in March of 1848, Matías de la Peña y Barragán, a local elite, rose up against the occupiers declaring himself Jefe del Ejercito Salvador de la Independencia y Libertad (Commander of the Salvation Army of Independence and Liberty) [1]. Ironically, Barragán’s declaration also called for the abdication of Herrera, who, according to him had failed to deliver his promises of a hasty end to the war.
Barragán mustered a small force and hastily marched against the occupying American forces. Although the Americans barely suffered any losses Barragán’s actions had stirred the populace of Puebla. Over the next few days several other militias of the kinds had sprouted; some were targeting the Mexican Spy Company for their treason, others the American forces, while even others had declared themselves against the rebellion and actively fought against Barrágan and other militias. Most notably was the Ejercito de la Patria under José María Lafragua. Lafragua had rallied a significant number of volunteers who fought in the name of the Federal government against both Barrágan and the American occupiers. (Ironically Barragán and Lafragua will serve together in the army during the quelling of the Caste War in Yucatan [2])
Puebla had been set aflame; the American occupation control of the situation, threatening Scott’s supply line to Veracruz. To worsen all matters a similar event, although of much smaller scale, had occurred in Cuernavaca where a small Mexican militia under José Vicente Miñón had attacked the occupation force under Capatain Robert E. Lee. Although it was quickly quelled the uprising had caused Scott to retreat from the Mexico City Valley to Cuernavaca in order to quell it. There, Scott had to make the choice of whether to press forward hoping for a quick victory in Mexico City or retreat back to Puebla.
Luckily, an envoy from Washington arrived just then saving him from having to make the choice.

batalla-de-puebla.jpg

The Puebla Uprisings

[1] de la Peña y Barragán actually adopted this title in OTL during the Polkos Rebellion when he rose up against Farias’ government. In this case he was actually fighting alongside his former enemy Santa Anna, who had astutely switched sides.
[2] This is true for Barragán in OTL, Lafragua was just a minor figure during the Polkos rebellion but I guess he will be more prominent ITTL.
 
jycee

Damn I missed this earlier. Looking like a crucial check. Presumably from the fact the diplomat means Scott doesn't have a choice suggests that there's some peace proposal being made. Question is what are the terms going to be and will they be acceptable to the Mexican government.

Steve
 
I knew it, America must be getting pissed off here as their is no way they will get anywhere as near as much land as they did in OTL I mean all their attempts have just failed and they are going to be pushed back very soon into Texas I could say
 
Just about everything that could go wrong for the Americans and right for the Mexicans has, it seems. I really love the details from Mexican history in this story, but also how it is a fairly quick read. I don't expect this TL to go to the end of the Century, but it would be nice to see a few years of post-war Mexico before the TL concludes.

I almost thought the big event in Puebla had to do with Polk. President Polk's health had severely declined throughout his term and he died of cholera exacerbated by his poor health only three months after he left office OTL. I half expected him to have died by now in your TL from all the extra stress.

I just read this TL to date in one sitting and now I'm anxious for... MOAR
 
I knew it, America must be getting pissed off here as their is no way they will get anywhere as near as much land as they did in OTL I mean all their attempts have just failed and they are going to be pushed back very soon into Texas I could say

zeppelin247

Providing I'm not getting my TLs mixed, I think America has a kind of hold of all it's OTL gains. It's just that their pretty fragile with a lot of unrest in California and New Mexico. Coupled with the heavy losses and lack of success in the Mexican heartlands and along the Texas border and the resultant war-weariness it means that Mexico may threaten to continue the war if America tries to keep all the gains. Which could back-fire if American will firmed up or Scott gets a big win but could well mean the US recognises it has to return some territory. How much would depend on the details.

Steve
 
Damn I missed this earlier. Looking like a crucial check. Presumably from the fact the diplomat means Scott doesn't have a choice suggests that there's some peace proposal being made. Question is what are the terms going to be and will they be acceptable to the Mexican government.

Steve

You shall know soon.

Is this going to continue our stop after the war?

neat TL, i like it. Hope it continues =D

Thanks for the support. I only have it planned out for a few years after the peace around the late 1850s, with developments in both Mexico and the US. But I have many ideas that I want to develop. The TL will most likely be placed in a, hopefully brief, hiatus until I flesh out an outline of what follows.

Since this is an ALT Mexican history, I would like to do something interesting with Maximilian, who iTTL will never get to Mexico. But so far this is just all floating ideas. So we will see.

Just about everything that could go wrong for the Americans and right for the Mexicans has, it seems. I really love the details from Mexican history in this story, but also how it is a fairly quick read. I don't expect this TL to go to the end of the Century, but it would be nice to see a few years of post-war Mexico before the TL concludes.

I almost thought the big event in Puebla had to do with Polk. President Polk's health had severely declined throughout his term and he died of cholera exacerbated by his poor health only three months after he left office OTL. I half expected him to have died by now in your TL from all the extra stress.

I just read this TL to date in one sitting and now I'm anxious for... MOAR

That is mostly what I was going for. The luckiest possible scenario for Mexico that was as ASB free as possible. Obviously for someone in TTL an even better scenario would be imaginable since everything is relative. However, I am also hoping for a peace that will have positive long term effects on Mexico.

About Polk, I did think of killing him earlier (he will still die very soon) but I opted for having him live longer so the image of what a bad over ambitious president would be i TTL solidifies with him. But don't worry the cholera is getting to him.

I should have the next update up early next week.
 
jycee

Must admit I would have preferred a longer reaching TL, looking at how a more powerful and stable Mexico would develop and affect the wider world. But then that's probably just me being greedy.:)

Thanks

Steve
 
Steve, it is not just you being greedy. Honestly I hope I can write a longer reaching TL. If I can I will. I,ll do my best to, at the very least, get to the 1900s. Although post-war updates might not be as regular as they are now.
 
Update!


The Hasty Ceasefire

Although the Mexican American war had dragged on for almost two years, the peace process seems to have been rushed do to several factors. President Polk had promised to serve a single term during his campaign; by the summer of 1848 the next election was rapidly approaching and both the Democrats and the Whig parties were suffering schisms within their parties as a result of the war’s unpopularity.
A second factor that pushed for the war’s hasty end was the threat of British intervention. Anglo-American relations had soured since the Oregon dispute. After the Oregon Treaty, the American settlers of Fort Vancouver found themselves living in the British side of the border. The British government guaranteed the settlers the right to stay many chose to relocate south of the Columbia River. The movement was not a peaceful as either government would have preferred. When the residents of Fort Vancouver rioted against the arrival of British troops, it was rumored that the American provisional government had been behind them. Britain had become adamant in preventing the United States from further excreting influence in the Pacific. The position of both governments regarding the Oregon territory is what pushed John McLoughlin, the former Chief Factor of the Columbia Fur District, to advocate for the creation of an independent nation in the territory. This position was not taken kindly by the local British authorities.
In Mexico the Herrera administration had been ready to end the war since before it started; there was no hesitation from the President’s part to accept a ceasefire when the American envoy arrived in Veracruz. By this time the American retreat had worsened and Scott had lost his foothold on the Mexico City Valley and Doniphan had suffered a defeat in Reynosa, allowing a small number of Mexican to cross the Rio Bravo. On April 25th Herrera accepted an armistice; three weeks later the peace negotiations began in Havana. David Conner, and John Slidell, who had previously served as ambassador to Mexico, acted as the American representatives. While President Herrera appointed Vicente García Torres, a popular spokesperson and well-liked politician, and General Yañes who had served as Secretary of War, to the Mexican lobby. Henry Bulwer, who had replaced Lord Ashburton as the British ambassador to the United States was also present in the signing of the treaty.

The Peace of Havana

The Treat of Havana was signed on June 14, 1848 after being ratified by all participating members. Although the United States had, in theory, the upper hand in the negotiations, since it still occupied most of the Mexican heartland, the situation forced them to make major concessions out of their original goals. For the most part the treaty followed the border the Mexican President had proposed previously that year. The United States’ sovereignty over Texas was recognized. The border was established at the Nueces River, respecting the territorial integrity of the Mexican departments of Tamaulipas and Coahuila. In the west, however, the Texan was extended to the Rio Bravo, respecting some of its previous claims. As for the territory of California, the United States was to pay 20 million dollars for the territory north of the 38th parallel [1]. This border would grant both nations access to the San Francisco Bay. Furthermore the United States was to pay Mexico the total of 20 million dollars for the territory.

In an effort to show goodwill, Mexico also granted The United States the right to survey the Ismuth of Tehuantepec for the possible construction of a railway linking the Gulf of Mexico to the Pacific. The plan to do so, however, will never be consummated. Mexico also extended relations with Britain by recognizing their colony in Honduras. The Border between Mexico and the British Honduras was established at the Sibun River. [2]

The war was officially over. But, the question remaining was; who won? No one got everything they wanted, and everyone walked away feeling unsatisfied. This was particularly true in the United States, despite the fact that arguably they had been the victors. The James K. Polk presidency is now considered one of the most ineffective in the country’s history, as it misspent the opportunity of peaceful expansion in a classic case of overstretching one’s limit. Polk did not live to see the end of his presidential term. It is believed he had contracted cholera in New Orleans, during a goodwill tour prior to his presidency. Over the course of the war his health had steadily worsened. That September the disease took its toll, and George M. Dallas stepped in as President for the remainder of the unpopular administration.

In Mexico President Jose Joaquin Herrera was about to face an uphill battle to secure his presidency post war, and the stable reconstruction of the nation. He had prevented the country from being torn to pieces, but in the process he had created a number of enemies for his administration, which was not much more popular than Polk’s.

[1] It is not the measly 15 of OTL but not the full 30 the Mexican government had originally demanded.
[2] Mexico is gaining a tiny chunk of Belize's northern half. In OTL Mexico did not recognize British Hondruas/Belize until 1893, and Guatemala still doesn't officially recognize it to date. The Sibun River was what Mexico recognized as its border until then.

And here is the map of the Mexican-American border after the Treaty of Havana.

border.jpg
 
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Damn, that borders are no good for the States. I'd bet on a future against BOTH mexico AND Britain. Maybe during the Crimean War, also to distract from the slave states issue? Easily.
 
go Mexio, I am really happy they were able to keep such a good amount of land really and the USA has got a bit of bloody nose from this war lol but I can now see Mexico and maye Britain becoming national symbols of Hate which may unite the nation against them
 
I really like how the territorial integrity of Tamaulipas, NL, and Coahuila was maintained. I feel a bit sad that it appears that Santa Fe got annexed by the USA :(.

Now, the big question for California is when the Gold will be discovered. I have seen it discovered in AH as early at the 1830s (obviously in early POD TLs) and as late as 1870. It's a hot potato that could go off at any second.
 
go Mexio, I am really happy they were able to keep such a good amount of land really and the USA has got a bit of bloody nose from this war lol but I can now see Mexico and maye Britain becoming national symbols of Hate which may unite the nation against them

Damn, that borders are no good for the States. I'd bet on a future against BOTH mexico AND Britain. Maybe during the Crimean War, also to distract from the slave states issue? Easily.

Yes, the US is not happy. And there might be a politician or two who will at the very least campaign on such premise. It may or may not unite the nation, maybe for a little while.

But, my idea would be for the TL to become a Mexican mini-wank (within realms of possibility). So the US can't go too crazy.

I really like how the territorial integrity of Tamaulipas, NL, and Coahuila was maintained. I feel a bit sad that it appears that Santa Fe got annexed by the USA :(.

Now, the big question for California is when the Gold will be discovered. I have seen it discovered in AH as early at the 1830s (obviously in early POD TLs) and as late as 1870. It's a hot potato that could go off at any second.

The gold rush will be an issue, as well as Santa Fe, but it is still a while away. I still have no idea what I want to do with it.

For now the TL has reached the point up until it was planned, I have a rough idea for what happens in the US and Mexico the next few years. They both have a lot of issues to solve. But nothing really past the mid 1850s.

I'll try to continue the TL for a while and hopefully get far ahead. The next few updates might be a bio of characters I wanted to mention in the war but did not get a chance to do so.

Anyway I added one more paragraph to the previous update that I forgot to include earlier today. For those who didn't get to read it.
 
jycee

Interesting developments and as you say both sides will be unhappy with the results. Mexcio has lost a fair chunk of territory and the US has failed to seize as much as it would have liked, as well as not getting the decisive victory it was looking for.

Coupled with the less favourable [for the US] result in Oregon there could be Americans looking for further wars with both nations. However the strength of Britain and the relative success of Mexican resistance could well make attacks on either power look difficult and hence unpopular. Also there's the other ticking time-bomb which may be brought to a head further by the limited gains of this war. Will resentment initially be directed inwards leading to an earlier clash over slavery and succession?

One factor, given the opposition shown to US occupation, is that there may be continued guerilla resistance in parts of the new gains. This could foul relations as well and make it difficult for Herrera, torn between respecting the peace to avoid further conflict and alienating the population by not supporting such rebels.

In terms of the gold it sounds like the bulk, along with the initial OTL strike, are in the US part of California but there could be some tension over fields that cross the border. Also there could be more hostility towards Mexicans [and possibly other non-Americans?] in the American fields.

Possibly tension related to ideas of a new war and concern that the hold on the Pacific coast is weaker might prompt earlier government support for a trans-continental railway. Although the longer war has probably been a bit more expensive. Probably depends on how much internal squabbling there is over the outcome of the war.

I think a US attack on Britain during a Crimean war would be unwise. It would really anger Britain and the economic effects of a blockade would be felt pretty quickly while, unless they had spent quite a while increasing the size of their regulars the US would struggle to make major inroads into Canada.

Why the different borders with British Honduras? Is it that Mexico looks a bit stronger and hence feels it doesn't need good relations with Britain so much?

Would definitely be interested in seeing how things go, especially in Mexico. Hopefully Herrera can hold things together and give the country some much needed stability and development. Coming at this time rather than the chaos that occurred OTL it could make a big difference to the future of the country.

Steve
 
Why the different borders with British Honduras? Is it that Mexico looks a bit stronger and hence feels it doesn't need good relations with Britain so much?
Steve

Actually, quite the opposite. Anglo-Mexican relations are quite better. Mexico is recognizing Britain's claims and presence in Central America over 40 years earlier. At this point British Honduras is for the most part just Belize City; the Sibun River border was what Mexico regarded as its southern border in OTL until 1893 when it recognized British Honduras. Britain will also be keeping the Ambreguis Caye Island, so whatever territory they lost around Chetumal Bay is preatty much insignificant. For the most part Britain is just recognizing Mexico's previous territorial claims and Mexico is recognizing Britain's right to have a colony there, and possibly any further claims they'll have on Guatemala and the Miskito.

Its a win win for both.
 
Actually, quite the opposite. Anglo-Mexican relations are quite better. Mexico is recognizing Britain's claims and presence in Central America over 40 years earlier. At this point British Honduras is for the most part just Belize City; the Sibun River border was what Mexico regarded as its southern border in OTL until 1893 when it recognized British Honduras. Britain will also be keeping the Ambreguis Caye Island, so whatever territory they lost around Chetumal Bay is preatty much insignificant. For the most part Britain is just recognizing Mexico's previous territorial claims and Mexico is recognizing Britain's right to have a colony there, and possibly any further claims they'll have on Guatemala and the Miskito.

Its a win win for both.

jycee

OK, thanks. That makes sense.

How open is the friendly relations between the two? That could be another factor in increasing American hostility. A bit of paranoia always comes in useful in inciting hostility.;)

Steve
 

chubaca

Banned
nice.
can somebody paste a map of the final situation of complete north america, or better the whole world? thank you for the travel, was fun.
 
nice.
can somebody paste a map of the final situation of complete north america, or better the whole world? thank you for the travel, was fun.

Here's a quick map I whipped up. Hope you don't mind jycee. If there's anything wrong please point it out. :)

CE 1845 MexVicpwmap.png
 
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