A Macedonian Conflict in the Yugoslav Civil War

[Dementor]

So this is a long way before Romania and Bulgaria joined NATO in 2004, though with the NATO intervention in Macedonia, can Bulgaria choose not to seek NATO membership by this point? Bulgaria actually helped Macedonia train its army, from what I can gather. And this UCK is different from the Kosovo UCK, right?

Bulgaria joining NATO is a separate matter and all the support NATO was giving out to various rebel groups actually helped persuade any doubters of the merits of joining NATO. As they say, it's better to be a hammer than an anvil.
Bulgaria did send weapons to Macedonia and the president suggested sending troops but that was shot down by the government.

Also, with regards to this issue, could the Albanian insurgency against Macedonia spill over into Greece, especially with the Liberation Army of Chameria?

It's a bit difficult to have an insurgency without any insurgents. There are far too few native Albanians left in Epirus for that. The Muslim Albanians were expelled after WWII, while the Christian Albanians have been assimilated.

Be glad that OTL Macedonia was pragmatic and reasonable during the main phase of the 90s craziness. The insurgency issues with some UCK-supplied lunkheads in the northwest are regrettable, but it's still a lot better than having to be directly dragged into the Yugoslav Wars and endure them.

I'm not much of a fan of the Macedonian government but they have been pretty good in the treatment of their non-Bulgarian minorities. Not that it helped them against the Albanians...

 

[Dementor]

If the rumors of Milosevic proposing to partition Macedonia with Greece, then they'd just pissed off Bulgaria at this point since they have not yet acknowledged the independence of Macedonia. I don't know when did they recognized Macedonia's independence.

Fears that this could happen apparently led to the swift recognition of Macedonia by Bulgaria.

Bulgaria was not in a posistion to raise a war, nor has the ground to raise demands on FYROM, at least not such to justify a war.

That most Bulgarians considered Macedonia Bulgarian probably makes an invasion less likely (and such an invasion was very close to ASB levels in plausibility, anyway) - it would be seen as a fratricidal war.

This is one good way to have a Macedonian Theater of the Yugoslav Civil War: it can spill over into the rest of the Balkans, and with Bulgaria and Turkey in the same alliance, they can deal Greece a big headache and at the same time the Bulgarophiles in Macedonia might even tell their friends in Sofia to move double time into Macedonia.

I have to agree with the Greek posters in this thread that there would be little chance of a Serbian-Greek division of Macedonia. What would Greece gain from this, anyway? Lots of angry Slavic Macedonians and worldwide condemnation - and in a period when they had especially bad relations with Turkey.

 

[Dementor]

The possibility of a Greek-sponsored invasion of FYROM is intriguing, however as Romanos noted, it's probably ASB as long as Greece interferes directly.

On the other hand Greece can interfere indirectly by putting pressure on Bulgaria to accept a Serbian move and with covert operations. There are rumors of Greek militias fighting in the Yugoslav war along the Serbs, so why not do the same in the case of FYROM too, perhaps even with elite army units or air raids at night. Flying low and coming in from the North at night, greek fighters cannot be distinguished from Serbian.

I don't see Bulgaria intervening, if there are adequate provisions for their minority in FYROM, something which can be regulated. It's also clear that the plans for a greater Albania are against Sofia's interest, so if the case is made that the FYROM-intervention is supposed to stop such a development, Sofia can only gain from that. Soft pressure from Greece concerning Bulgaria's future in NATO and possibly the EU will also aid.

The Turks will certainly disagree, but who cares? They are too far away to intervene and won't risk war with Greece over this.

Sorry, but this whole scenario is pretty implausible.
As Angel Heart pointed out, Serbia was not in a position to do anything like this, not to mention no way to justify such a invasion at all - there are far too few Serbs in Macedonia.
And the Greek volunteers were fighting against the Muslims in Bosnia. I doubt you could get many volunteers to fight against fellow Orthodox Christians. And planes are out of the question - they would be detected pretty quickly by Italian radar and then there would be an enormous scandal.
As for Bulgaria, an intervention is possible, especially if the Serbian army uses the same tactics as in Bosnia and Croatia. And no, assurances about protection of minority rights is not going to be taken seriously after 50 years of relentless prosecution. Not to mention that most Bulgarians would not want the Macedonians be opressed by the Serbs, anyway. Add the likely refugee crisis and an intervention might seem a pretty good idea. Also, why would Bulgaria care about a Greater Albanian state to the extent of abandoning Macedonia? Bulgaria doesn't have an Albanian minority.
And yes, Greece could prevent a Bulgarian intervention but what have they gain from this?

 

[MUC]

1. Italian radars cannot detect low flying aircraft flying over mainland Greece towards FYROM. NATO E3s can, but their patters are known to the Greek Air Force.
2. The Serbs can claim Albanian nationalism and oppression of others in FYROM as a reason to invade. This can be very well staged.
3. The Bulgarians have a lot to lose from a Greater Albania appearing next to them.
4. The Greeks are also very concerned about a Greater Albania particularly because of the imperialistic ideas of such a movement and the fact, that such a nationalist movement may oppress the Greek minority in S. Albania.
5. Having a land border with Greece is important to Serbia. They can use it to smuggle in goods, while the Greek frontier troops watch away. It's thus quite profitable for Greek firms too. Kind of like food-for-oil in Iraq, this time inofficially in the Balkans. Only this time it's food-for-exclusive contracts of greek firms in Serbia.

 

[Dementor]

1. Italian radars cannot detect low flying aircraft flying over mainland Greece towards FYROM. NATO E3s can, but their patters are known to the Greek Air Force.

But they can probably detect Greek fighters flying over the Otranto strait to reach Yugoslavia, so they can attack Macedonia from the north.

2. The Serbs can claim Albanian nationalism and oppression of others in FYROM as a reason to invade. This can be very well staged.

That's absurd, because if a government has difficulties with rebellious minorities, destroying that government probably won't help at all with the insurrections.

3. The Bulgarians have a lot to lose from a Greater Albania appearing next to them.

First, I don't think that anyone would buy the Serbian excuse.
Secondly, Greater Albania wouldn't border Bulgaria unless Bulgaria absorbed Macedonia - which would be rather a plus, as far as many Bulgarians concerned. In any case Bulgaria can help Macedonia with this problem much better than a Serbian invasion.

4. The Greeks are also very concerned about a Greater Albania particularly because of the imperialistic ideas of such a movement and the fact, that such a nationalist movement may oppress the Greek minority in S. Albania.

Yes, but a danger from Greater Albania would be just an excuse in this scenario.

5. Having a land border with Greece is important to Serbia. They can use it to smuggle in goods, while the Greek frontier troops watch away. It's thus quite profitable for Greek firms too. Kind of like food-for-oil in Iraq, this time inofficially in the Balkans. Only this time it's food-for-exclusive contracts of greek firms in Serbia.

Macedonia was practically a wide open door as far enforcement of the embargo went. No need for a Serbian occupation.

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

Didn't Greek volunteers with connections to Golden Dawn participate in the fall of Srebrenica?