Be glad that OTL Macedonia was pragmatic and reasonable during the main phase of the 90s craziness. The insurgency issues with some UCK-supplied lunkheads in the northwest are regrettable, but it's still a lot better than having to be directly dragged into the Yugoslav Wars and endure them.
A Macedonian Conflict in the Yugoslav Civil War
- Thread starter MarshalBraginsky
- Start date
Angel Heart
Banned
For the Bulgarian POV you'd have to ask Dementor or our other resident Bulgarian friends. For all I know is that IIRC Bulgaria offered military assistance to Macedonia while Ukraine was selling arms and Serbia even sent advisors.
Ali Ahmeti created the Macedonian UÇK out of the remnants of the one based in Kosovo and the UÇPMB.
No! Greater Albanian irredentism was directed by the United States. As long as Greece (a member of both NATO and the EU) is considered an ally, the local Albanians won't do anything significant in Tsamouriá.
Watch with smug satisfaction as Macedonia burns?
MarshalBraginsky
Banned
Macedonia would have been in a far worse shape had the Macedonian UCK get involved in this mess. I still don't know as to why the Liberation Army of Chamaria existed in northern Greece though, they're practically like a white elephant: they paid more to maintain it and the LA of Chamaria guys have no role whatsoever.
I can safely add this though: I do not know any Macedonian politician that is on par with the Unholy Trinity that occupies the government posts in Belgrade, and hopefully there won't be any. I don't see Macedonia as the nation most likely to put their heads in the sand.
I can safely add this though: I do not know any Macedonian politician that is on par with the Unholy Trinity that occupies the government posts in Belgrade, and hopefully there won't be any. I don't see Macedonia as the nation most likely to put their heads in the sand.
UC Chameria was just a branch of UCK, ie some Kosovars trained on the mount of Nerodimlje (near Urosevac), financed through a bank account in the Bank of Tirana. They perfrormed a couple of small scale sabotages and bomb attacks in Thesprotia in early 2000's, just to show they exist. You see, there is no Albanian minority in Greece, just Albanian immigrants, who are well intergrated into the Greek society and have no interest in UCK like adventures.
Kicked them out at some point, did you? According to at least two historical atlases that I've seen there were certainly some Albanians living in areas just south of the border back druing the period when the border was originally established, just as there were some Greeks living to the north of it...
In any way, it's hard to see FYROM getting into some kind of war during or after her intependance:
Milosevic is claimed to have proposed to the Greek PM, Mitsotakis, a joint operation andpartition of the FYROM, but the latter refused, as Greece is dedicated to the maintainance of the current status in the Balkans, and International Law.
Bulgaria was not in a posistion to raise a war, nor has the ground to raise demands on FYROM, at least not such to justify a war.
Albania was (and is) in no position to make war.
Anyway, if something hapenned in FYROM in the early or mid- '90's it would involve either the Serbs ir the Albanians, the most propable outcome could be a NATO operation through Greece, after the FYROM agreed to accept the Greek demands for the name, flag and "minority" parlor.
In the case of the involvement of Serbia, I can see a fast overthrow of Milosevic, and a totaly different history since.
In the case of the involvement of the Albanians, I can see a totaly different developement in Kosovo, with the Albanian Kosovars getting little support from abroad.
Milosevic is claimed to have proposed to the Greek PM, Mitsotakis, a joint operation andpartition of the FYROM, but the latter refused, as Greece is dedicated to the maintainance of the current status in the Balkans, and International Law.
Bulgaria was not in a posistion to raise a war, nor has the ground to raise demands on FYROM, at least not such to justify a war.
Albania was (and is) in no position to make war.
Anyway, if something hapenned in FYROM in the early or mid- '90's it would involve either the Serbs ir the Albanians, the most propable outcome could be a NATO operation through Greece, after the FYROM agreed to accept the Greek demands for the name, flag and "minority" parlor.
In the case of the involvement of Serbia, I can see a fast overthrow of Milosevic, and a totaly different history since.
In the case of the involvement of the Albanians, I can see a totaly different developement in Kosovo, with the Albanian Kosovars getting little support from abroad.
Yes, the Albanians living in Thesprotia flew or were expulsed just after the Germans left, before the establishment of the Greek Government which came from the Middle East. No matter of the stance of the majority of the Albanian minority during the war, their expulsion was not right, and I believe they deserve to get compensated.
There are still a lot of Greeks in Northern Epirus/Southern Albania, but Greece has raised no demand for the region, just the protection of human rights by the Abanian government.
http://s561.photobucket.com/user/ARHIV/media/Milosevic-portrait_of_a_tyrant_p189-190.png.html
Having Greece invade FYROM from the South during the Serbian invasion from the North would make a very interesting POD...
Having Greece invade FYROM from the South during the Serbian invasion from the North would make a very interesting POD...
Greece would certainly not intervene either for or against the government of fYROM by military means, the government didn't have any such plans or aspirations and it knew it couldn't do it, Greece being a member of NATO and a US ally. It is true that (according to a very widespread rumour at least) Milosevic proposed the division of FYROM between Greece and Serbia/Federal Yugoslavia, but PM Mitsotakis refused. I can see the government promising and providing aid to Skopje if a permanent agreement on the dispute can be reached, so it's a win-win for both governments but the problem is 2-3 government MPs would bring down the government over this and I don't know what Papandreou's PASOK would do.
As others said, I don't see how you can create a conflict apart from a UCK-government conflict similar to the one in 2001 happen earlier and get worse than iotl, but you can't make it happen as bad as, say, Bosnia.
As others said, I don't see how you can create a conflict apart from a UCK-government conflict similar to the one in 2001 happen earlier and get worse than iotl, but you can't make it happen as bad as, say, Bosnia.
MarshalBraginsky
Banned
If the rumors of Milosevic proposing to partition Macedonia with Greece, then they'd just pissed off Bulgaria at this point since they have not yet acknowledged the independence of Macedonia. I don't know when did they recognized Macedonia's independence.
MarshalBraginsky
Banned
So basically they were telling the world to pay attention to them. How come the Albanian resistance fighters always set up liberation armies, only to do little after the Kosovo War?
I'm baffled that Serbia and Greece even considered this. If this had actually happened, the region would never be the same again. A Greek-Serbian invasion of Macedonia would likely push Bulgaria and possibly even Turkey into the conflict, along with a drastically increased level of Western involvement. Basically you'd have war all over the region, with NATO members possibly fighting AGAINST each other. Very interesting POD though, and thankfully we'd only have to read it!
MarshalBraginsky
Banned
This is one good way to have a Macedonian Theater of the Yugoslav Civil War: it can spill over into the rest of the Balkans, and with Bulgaria and Turkey in the same alliance, they can deal Greece a big headache and at the same time the Bulgarophiles in Macedonia might even tell their friends in Sofia to move double time into Macedonia.
This must be a joke, right? You are kidding, I hope. Otherwise, if you're really claiming that the uprisings in Kosovo were instigated by and directed from Washington, you better have some proof to back that up.
MarshalBraginsky
Banned
http://web.archive.org/web/20080510052014/http://www.deltax.net/bissett/a-monster.htm
This is an article written by James Bissett on the Toronto Star, dated July 31st, 2001 about the mistake NATO made in arming the UCK.
This is an article written by James Bissett on the Toronto Star, dated July 31st, 2001 about the mistake NATO made in arming the UCK.
The possibility of a Greek-sponsored invasion of FYROM is intriguing, however as Romanos noted, it's probably ASB as long as Greece interferes directly.
On the other hand Greece can interfere indirectly by putting pressure on Bulgaria to accept a Serbian move and with covert operations. There are rumors of Greek militias fighting in the Yugoslav war along the Serbs, so why not do the same in the case of FYROM too, perhaps even with elite army units or air raids at night. Flying low and coming in from the North at night, greek fighters cannot be distinguished from Serbian.
I don't see Bulgaria intervening, if there are adequate provisions for their minority in FYROM, something which can be regulated. It's also clear that the plans for a greater Albania are against Sofia's interest, so if the case is made that the FYROM-intervention is supposed to stop such a development, Sofia can only gain from that. Soft pressure from Greece concerning Bulgaria's future in NATO and possibly the EU will also aid.
The Turks will certainly disagree, but who cares? They are too far away to intervene and won't risk war with Greece over this.
On the other hand Greece can interfere indirectly by putting pressure on Bulgaria to accept a Serbian move and with covert operations. There are rumors of Greek militias fighting in the Yugoslav war along the Serbs, so why not do the same in the case of FYROM too, perhaps even with elite army units or air raids at night. Flying low and coming in from the North at night, greek fighters cannot be distinguished from Serbian.
I don't see Bulgaria intervening, if there are adequate provisions for their minority in FYROM, something which can be regulated. It's also clear that the plans for a greater Albania are against Sofia's interest, so if the case is made that the FYROM-intervention is supposed to stop such a development, Sofia can only gain from that. Soft pressure from Greece concerning Bulgaria's future in NATO and possibly the EU will also aid.
The Turks will certainly disagree, but who cares? They are too far away to intervene and won't risk war with Greece over this.
Angel Heart
Banned
I'm actually not sure how Sloba could have pulled off a war of aggression against Macedonia. Given the disasterous economic shape of Serbia, the real possibility of a high level insurgency in both Kosovo and Sandžak, the fact that the military presence in Kosovo costed IIRC around one million German Marks daily, the fact that Sloba and the army always had a strained relationship etc. it would have been almost as if Russia would attempt to go on a would conquest tour in 1994. I also can't see how Sloba and the gang could have justified a possible invasion of Macedonia.
You'd have to pardon me in advance as English is only my third language, but with directed I was actually meaning greenlighted and openly supported. We didn't see an open Albanian uprising in Kosovo during the early and mid 1990s when Serbia was at her weakest. As a matter of fact the aggression on Serbia and Montenegro was already scheduled for autumn 1998 until it was postponed a few months later. In Macedonia the UÇK was saved from annihilation in a similar fashion like the Republika Srpska while order was restored in Preševo, Bujanovac and Medveđa after NATO allowed Serbia to do so. The US, while certainly not their creator, were pretty much conducting this orchestra and told Greater Albanian irredentist what they could get and what not.
Greek volunteers did participate long with the VRS. Greek volunteers did participate long with the VRS.[/QUOTE]Oops, sorry, if I offended you. Let's just say, that the whole truth about those Greek volunteers is not quite clear yet.
There are claims, that they were embedded within the serbian/bosnian army units, while orhers claim they were stand-alone formations.
That Greeks fought in the war is however certain. What is not certain is how they were organized and whether or not tey were supported by the Greek government.
Not likely, unless either Serbia or Bulgaria attempts to take over Macedonia. Not to mention that one can hardly speak of "Bulgarophiles" as an organized force. It's true that VMRO-DPMNE was generally a bit friendlier to Bulgaria than the socialists, especially when it was led by its founder Ljubčo Georgievski, but that's quite different from being Bulgarians or even Bulgarophiles. There are exceptions (like Georgievski who took Bulgarian citizenship and has criticized the official history in Macedonia) but the majority certainly wouldn't fight in such a conflict.
The Bulgarian minority is not especially big and hardly posed a threat. So unless Yugoslavia wanted to deliberately provoke Bulgaria into invading, no point in persecuting them.For example, as far as I know, the Bosnians of Sandžak weren't treated very badly, and they had no one to defend them.
The Bulgarian minority wasn't treated especially well under Milosevic, though they weren't really prosecuted. And there were some efforts to "prove" that the Bulgarians were actually a separate nationality, the Shopi. But as I said above, not much a potential for conflict.