First of all, great job @Lusitania as far as the work you've done already. My folks are from Cabo Verde and I'm always psyched to see anything Portugal related on the forums.

I generally agree with the analysis laid out here, only adding that there seemed to be a sociopolitical element to why Portugal could do something like this (and as some historians have further extrapolated, why they might have been able to maintain a federation with their African colonies while the idea was a simple non-starter in many other countries.) Of course, this cast of thinking is not all good, it's probably at least somewhat behind the viciousness and stomach-turning propensity for atrocities so often displayed during Portugal's wars during the era of African decolonization. Certainly, while the elements are there, the semi-fascist coalition of Salazar would never accept the peace offered by Amilcar Cabral (remaining with Portugal if Guinea-Bissau and Cabo Verde received one-man-one-vote progressive representation in the halls of power) because they'd realize that would mean "too much power" in the hands of blacks. All in all, the situation in Portugal is sorta unique and lends itself to a number of thought-provoking scenarios: whether it be the social-democrat dream of unity between black and white Lusophones or the OTL horror of village burnings and massacres.

(BTW, I'll be keeping an eye out for that certain Portuguese Guinean in this TL. He's basically considered somewhere between George Washington and Jesus Christ back in Cabo Verde and what he does ITTL will have a huge impact on not only Lusophone Africans but the African liberation movement as a whole. Hoping homeboy doesn't get assassinated here, for sure.)

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Thank you for your input and yes there is a huge difference in iotl Estado Novo /Portugal and ittl estado novo / Portugal. The absence of Salazar will slowly allow for much greater progressive reforms in the 1940s onwards. One huge reform was the colonial act in late 1930s. For starter starting in late 1930s blacks, Indians and Asians who spoke Portuguese and were catholic became Portuguese citizens (this is decades ahead of iOTL) which helps eliminate a huge amount of resentment amongst many people. In the 1940s further liberalizing reforms are introduced to the act.

Secondly citizens are allowed to vote be they in metropolitan Portugal or ultramar provinces be they white, black, Indian or Asian. White settlement of Africa in late 1930s is already reaching iotl 1960s levels and the 1940s were transformative years.

The issue of one person one vote can be manipulated. Look at the communist countries, where everyone is allowed to vote. The biggest issue is who you are allowed to vote for. An African casting his vote for government approved candidate in Portugal or Portuguese federation is no different than African casting his vote in majority of African countries shortly after independence where one party rule was instituted in most countries. The difference is the candidates are all African in the African countries where in Portugal they be mixed.

Lastly for the individual mentioned Minister Cabral, I mean Mr Cabral his upbringing and education be much different than iotl and both his employment opportunities and politics would be shaped by economic, political and social issues he faced. So his future could very well be different.

This brings me to the colonial wars of 1960s. I will spell out that they are completely different, of different magnitude as well as world shaping importance but we have to get through the 1940s and most importantly the 1950s before we talk about them.


Thanks for the thoughtful response, yo.

Yeah, one thing that people don't often realize is that initially, the efforts of Africans inside Portuguese colonies were directed at getting equal treatment as fellow citizens of Portugal instead of full independence. This goes a long way to keeping the locals happy and united behind the flag.
Yes we ill delve into that including their involvement in military and business.

Yup, even in the scenario you've constructed, there's a long way to go for full equality de facto as well as de jure. The difference is that the fact that the Portuguese are moving on this quicker than OTL means that there's time for that to happen before the colonial anger reaches a boiling point.
Yes the 1950s were formidable years to recruit and groom many people from different groups into business, government and higher society. By 1970 when Prime Minister Rapazote cabinet was sworn into office and their picture was published it was also published alongside US president Nixon's cabinet and distributed world wide to show the discrepancy and to undermine the American dream and provide proof of the Federation government not only reflected but worked for all people in the country not like US which was all white men.

I'm so hyped right now. I can imagine him and his half-brother Luís as more akin to American civil rights figures ITTL than the independence-movement inspiring thinkers of OTL. Probably still firebrand politicians by mainland Portuguese standards, but not to the extent of separatism.
oh his brother Luis Cabral the president of Portuguese conglomerate CUF from 2000 - 2008 and husband to Maria Teresa Guimarães José de Mello and one of the richest men in the Federation? hm different paths. Where as Amilcar Cabral was an engineer till 1968 when he entered politics and was elected the governor of the province of Bissau for the National Union party. In 1973 he entered Federal politics when he was elected to the National Assembly but was in 1975 promoted to the Minister of Foreign Affairs and was Portugal's main diplomat in Europe I think I have picture of him meeting President of Romania, Nicolae Ceaușescu, which was only one of two communist who had diplomatic relations with the Federation (other was Poland) in 1977.

Minister Amilcar Cabral meeting Romanian President Nicolae Ceaușescu​

In 1980 he shocked the country by switching parties to the Social Democratic party and became Sa Carneiro right hand man. In 1985 he succeeded Sa Carneiro after the shocking bombing of the RTP studios in Tetuan being used to host the debate for the regional elections of the country. Sa Carneiro and Prime minister Marcelo Caetano along with over 210 people were killed in the explosion planted by suicide reporters and agents from Communist China. Amilcar stayed leader of the Social Democratic Party and Representative of the Democratic Alliance but never achieved the popularity and success of Sa Carneiro. Amilcar suffered a stroke in 1994 and retired from politics. In 1996 he was named the Marques de Bafatá by king Duarte III.
1930s - Culture and Sports


1930 – 1939 (cont.)

Culture and Sports

Antonio Ferro, the National Information Secretary, continued using the recent founded Portuguese radio stations to provide the people with information and promote nationalism. By 1932 the number of radio stations had grown to four with two starting in the north; “Rádio Lusophone” in Porto and “Rádio Altitude” in Braga while the Catholic church began their own radio station “Rádio Renascença”. By 1939 the number had grown to over 20 with radio stations available in every major city and region in Metropolitan Portugal and major cities of the Ultramar provinces.[1] The popularity of the radio stations became indispensable in providing the Portuguese with information on health, economy as well as cultural programming. It also became a primary way of the various government departments providing information to millions of still illiterate Portuguese.

During the 1930s the Ministry of Culture and Sport continued promoting and supporting Portuguese movies. In 1932, the Portuguese movie industry received a boost with the founding of Companhia Portuguesa de Filmes Sonoros Tobis Klangfilm whose primary purpose was to support the growth of Portuguese cinema. From 1932, onward Portuguese cinema produced between three to six movies a year. During the 1930s many movie cinemas were constructed in the larger Portuguese cities and towns. In 1938, the ministry assisted in the founding of several new movie companies such as Lisboa Filme, Sonoro Filme and Luso Filme. Three of the largest movie companies concentrated on theme of Portuguese comedies and on popular Portuguese historical figures with the goal of doubling the number of Portuguese movies by 1945.

In 1939, new genre of Portuguese films started being shown, weekly action adventure and serialized dramas. The action adventure films portrayed Portuguese characters overcoming enemies of the state “communists” and “foreigners”, while the serialized dramas were based on family and moral issues being overcome. These movies were usually 30 - 60 minutes long and were proceeded by information and news. Cost to the new genres was made very cheap with whole families able to come to the theatre for several centavos and usually shown in afternoons on weekends.

In 1938, the Ministry funded traveling cinema companies that traveled the countryside and showed movies in rural towns and villages.[2] For many Portuguese these were the first movies they saw, and the town’s mayor and priests were always required to attend to provide assurances that they were both safe and morally acceptable.

Publishing also continued under the government’s watch, with the increased literacy the number of books and at same time came increase in authors some of whom such as Alexandre Cabral, Almada Negreiros, and Antero de Figueiredo went on to become literally famous. While one of Portugal greatest artists and writers, Fernando Pessoa who died in 1935 saw his legacy and fame increase as his work became even more popular following his death. The control of newspapers also increased with those newspapers deemed more critical of government suffering greater scrutiny. Arts in general increased throughout the country as number of plays and musicals and number of musicians increased and more affluent population created greater demand both for recorded music as well as live performances.

In 1934 “Mocidade Portuguesa” Portuguese Youth Organization was founded under the direction of Marcelo Caetano. The Portuguese Youth emphasized patriotism, moral values and physical wellbeing. Guided by Catholic Church teachings and Scout Movement it was open to all youth between ages of 7 to 20. The organization grew as new chapters were opened in every major city and town by the end of decade.

Mocidade Portuguesa Emblem and Dia de Camoes march

The Portuguese government supported the construction of several new parks, recreation and cultural centers, they included Feira Popular and Estufa Fria in Lisbon, Portugal dos Pequenitos in Coimbra and Serralves Park and Museum in Porto.

In 1934 Portugal failed to qualify for the FIFA world cup held in Italy. Two years later in 1936 Portugal sent 29 competitors to the Berlin Olympics with the equestrian team winning a bronze medal.

Following the disappointing results in the 1934 FIFA world cup and 1936 Olympics the Ministry of Culture began a comprehensive promotion of sports throughout the country with emphasis on larger urban areas first. Money was provided for the development of Youth and Sports Centers in major centers. The objective of the Youth and Sports centers was to encourage Portuguese youths to participate in sports and cultural events. It also had the objective to identify and develop youths with good potential for various sports to double the number of athletes at the 1940 Tokyo Summer Olympics.[3]

In 1938 the Portuguese national soccer team competed against Switzerland for a spot at the 1938 FIFA world cup. Portugal played two games against Switzerland, the first one in Switzerland on 22th of January which ended in a 2-2 tie.[4] The second game held in Lisbon on 1st of May was won by the Portuguese team 4-1. In the 1938 World Cup, Portugal was pared against Germany in the first round. The game ended tied 1-1 then Portugal went on to win the game on penalties (4-2). In the second-round Portugal lost 2-1 against Hungary. Overall a very positive display for Portugal in its first World Cup appearance.

Portugal in 1938 World Cup

The number of soccer and sporting clubs doubled in the 1930s including the building of over 30 stadiums, The Portuguese Soccer Federation began the Bota de Prata completion showcasing the best Portuguese soccer clubs in country.

[1] Unfortunately, Japanese occupation of Portuguese territory in Asia prevented the establishment of “Rádio Macau” till 1946.

[2] Due to the lack of electricity in these towns and villages the traveling technicians took along generators to power the projectors.

[3] In 1938, the Olympics were move to Helsinki Finland due to the continuation of the Chinese-Japanese war. In 1939, the Olympics were cancelled due to the outbreak of WWII.

[4] iOTL Switzerland refused to travel to Portugal and instead one game was played in neutral country and the game was played in Italy. In the 55th minute Joao Cruz missed a penalty for Portugal and Portugal lost the game 2-1, Switzerland then qualified for the World Cup instead of Portugal.

So we explore two cornerstones of the Portuguese government policies culture/propaganda and sports. We start noticing a more astute government and just as importantly a government with more resources invest heavily in radio and communication. Plus just as important was the support and creation of Portuguese movies which were instrumental in portraying government message. Ironically the travelling movie companies were accompanied by policemen who made sure local government officials and church leaders appeared at the movies and that no negative comments were made by either. The arrival of the movies served two purposes: it provided opportunity for the government to toot its own horn showing development throughout the country which in turn spurred movement of rural people to the cities in search better lives.

The sports were also impacted although the major impact would have to wait till the 1940s but the new attitude and development allowed Portugal and Switzerland to play two games in each country like other countries trying to qualify for the world cup. The intense interest in the country in the games and world cup provided the government with ingredients it would use in the following decades.

Next up Foreign Affairs .
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1930s - Foreign Affairs


1930 – 1939 (cont.)

Foreign Affairs

The 1930s was perilous time for Portugal who was betrayed by its longtime ally; Great Britain. Portugal then turned to Germany and lesser extent US, Argentina and Brazil as it tried to expand its trading partners and continue its economic development. The ascension of the Nazis to German government and its anti-Semitic and anti-religious policies made the Portuguese government uneasy and it slowly turned back to Great Britain when the British alarmed at the economic, military cooperation between Portugal and Germany approached the Portuguese in re-establishing normal economic and financial ties in the mid-1930s. The re-establishment of normal trade and diplomatic relations between Portugal and UK in 1936 provided Portugal with an alternative source of economic and industrial influence much to the irritation the Germans who believed the Portuguese to be in their sphere of influence. For next few years Portugal tried to balance its relationships with its oldest ally, the UK, and its new ideologically aligned friend Germany. Both the UK and Germany pulled on the Portuguese to be in their sphere of influence, but the Portuguese government was adamant that it wished no part in the growing overcharged political and military environment of Europe at the end of the 1930s. In June 1939 as Europe looked like it was marching to war Portuguese government sent a letter to both the British and German governments stating that Portugal was a neutral country and it was not siding with either country and requested that all sides respect Portuguese neutrality.

Apart from the German and UK tug of war trying to gain Portugal’s favor the biggest diplomatic event preoccupying the Portuguese during the 1930s was the Spanish Civil War. The potential for the war to spill into Portugal or bring a hostile government into the Iberian Peninsula was Portugal’s greatest fear. It was this reason that motivated the Portuguese to support Franco and the Nationalist side as much as they did, not realizing or intending the leverage they would have over the Nationalist side at the end of the war.

The 1930s was instrumental in the development of Portuguese Foreign policy which due to British involvement in the attempted 1930s revolt would provide the Portuguese government with both the need to seek independent path which then provided Nazi Germany with a opening and in 1936 before relations between the Portuguese -Nazi Germany cooled the Germans had huge plans for the Portuguese allies. Secret plans only uncovered after WWII showed they planned on stationing troops and submarines and Luftwaffe squadrons in both Portugal and African colonies safeguarding Nazi access to Portuguese resources. The move by the Portuguese away from Germany was both a shock and major disappointment. But the Portuguese were not about to trade one dependency (Britain) for another (Germany). They wanted their independence.

Next up Brief description of world affairs. .
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1930s - World


1930 – 1939 (cont.)


In 1933, the Nazi Party came to power in Germany, over the next two years all other parties were banned, and Hitler became dictator. The German government began huge public work projects putting millions of unemployed Germans to work. Germany began re-arming scrapping all limitations of the Treaty of Versailles. Requiring resources, the German government and industry made overtures to the Portuguese government to provide Portugal with expertise and funds to exploit its resources (oil, gas and mines). In 1935 Germany withdrew from the League of Nations and supported the Italian invasion of Ethiopia. The German armed forces were increased to 500,000 and an air force was created while the German Navy was greatly expanded. In 1936 Germany decided to remilitarize the Rhineland. In 1935 Nazi Germany passed the Nuremberg Laws, which stripped German citizenship from all Jews and forbade marriage and/or sexual relationship between Germans and Jews. The law was subsequently expanded to include Romani and Afro-Germans. German Jews lost their jobs and their business were seized or destroyed. Prime Minister Salazar criticized the laws and anti-Semitic attacks and ordered all Portuguese diplomats in Germany to defend all Portuguese and their property regardless of their religion.

Great Britain under the leadership of Chamberlain tried to appease the Germans thinking that in doing so it was avoiding war.

In March 1938 Hitler engineered the unification of Germany and Austria. He then demanded that all German speaking parts of Europe be unified under German leadership. The first country he targeted was the Republic of Czechoslovakia, whom he demanded they hand over Sudetenland which was mostly German. The Czechs refused and the British, Czechoslovaks, and France (Czechoslovakia's ally) prepared for war over the German demands. Attempting to avoid war, British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain arranged a series of meetings, the result of which was the Munich Agreement, which was signed on 29 September 1938. The Czechoslovak government was forced to accept the Sudetenland's annexation into Germany. At first the British Prime Minister, Chamberlain, was seen as a hero but when Germany invaded and occupied the remainder of Czech territory in March 1939 the world realized Hitler could not be trusted. Germany set up a puppet state in the Slovak speaking part of Czechoslovakia. Germany next turned its attention to Poland by demanding it return the Free City of Danzig and the Polish Corridor, a strip of land that separated East Prussia from the rest of Germany. Great Britain and France provided Poland with guarantees while both countries increased their home army and the pace of rearmament increased. Europe marched towards war.

On 7 April 1939 Italy invaded Albania and both France and UK subsequently provided Greece and Romania with guarantees also. The following month Mussolini hosted anti-communist conference in April 1939, the Portuguese government refused the Italian government’s invitation to sign the Anti-Kominterm Pact (anti-communist pact signed by Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy, Imperial Japan and Spain).[1]

On 1 September 1939 Germany invaded Poland starting WWII.

In 1931 Imperial Japan invaded and occupies Manchuria. They setup a puppet regime called Manchukuo, and the former Emperor of China, Puyi, was installed as the official head of state.

In 1933 Jehol, a Chinese territory bordering Manchuria, was also taken. In 1936, Japan created a similar Mongolian puppet state in Inner Mongolia named Mengjiang. Japanese, Koreans, and Taiwanese were banned from immigrating to North America and Australia. Manchukuo was opened to immigration of Asians, and the Japanese population in the newly occupied territory subsequently grew to 850,000.

In 1937, Japan invaded China, creating what was essentially a three-way war between Japan, Mao Zedong's communists, and Chiang Kai-shek's nationalists.

In 1938 Portuguese forces in Macau occupied the adjacent Chinese islands of Lapa, Dom Joao and Montanha (Wanzai, Small and Large Hengqin) due to the withdrawal of Chinese forces and government from the region as result of Japanese invasion of China. The Portuguese government justified its occupation of the islands on the premise that it was there to protect Portuguese missionaries in the region.[2]

[1] The Kominterm act served as the basis for the formation of the Axis and Portugal’s refusal to be part of the act allowed it to maintain its neutrality stand. This decision was strongly criticized by several vocal anti-communists organizations in Portugal and some elements of the Portuguese League.

[2] In 1890s Portugal had attempted to include the three islands with Macau but the Chinese had refused.

This brings us to the end of the 1930s. We have a new Portugal growing and developing hoping to continue its path being suddenly unsure how to proceed as war breaks out around it. There was Germany which accounted for huge amount of trade on one side and Britain / France which was also very important for the Portuguese on other side. In the middle was Portugal. How will it react? Will war come to the Portuguese or will they like iOTL be able to avoid war?

Return in 2 weeks on February 17 as we start the 1940s.
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1940 – 1949

The decade of the 1940s was divided into two distinctive eras: WWII which lasted from 1940 to 1945 and Post War Era 1945 to 1949. WWII had a profound effect on most countries and people in Europe, Asia, and elsewhere. The consequences of the war lingered well into the second half of the decade, with a war-weary Europe divided between the jostling spheres of influence of the Western World and the Soviet Union, leading to the beginning of the Cold War. To some degree internal and external tensions in the post-war era were managed by new institutions, including the United Nations, the welfare state, and the Bretton Woods system, facilitating the post–World War II economic expansion, which lasted well into the 1970s. However, the conditions of the post-war world encouraged decolonialization and emergence of new states and governments, with India, Pakistan, Israel, Vietnam, and others declaring independence, although rarely without bloodshed. The decade also witnessed the early beginnings of new technologies (such as computers, nuclear power, and jet propulsion), often first developed in tandem with the war effort, and later adapted and improved upon in the post-war era.

Portugal was affected greatly by the two distinctive eras; while the country was able to avoid the horrors of the war for the most part (Macau was occupied by Japanese and Timor attacked by Japanese forces) the Portuguese lived for the greater part of the war afraid it would engulf the country and scrambled to appease both Axis and Allies at great personal cost while trying to remain neutral. At same time the country continued its industrialization and development. The post war years Portugal’s principal preoccupation was on industrial and economic growth in all areas of Portugal especially its overseas provinces. It was also a time that it faced political opposition from both sides of the growing super powers.

With the two distinctive Eras the 1940s is divided into two separate sections:

We now start one of the most formidable decades for the Estado Novo Portuguese Federation, for much of it mindset and future accomplishments had its start in this decade.

Next up will be the start of the War Years (1940 -1945).
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1940s - The War Years (1940 - 1945)


1940 – 1949 (cont.)

The War Years 1940 – 1945

The War Years (1940 – 1945), was a time that the world was consumed in an worldwide war, the which mankind had never witnessed. The war that started at the end of 1939 with the Nazi Germany invasion of Poland would soon consume all of Europe and Portugal spent most of the war worried it would reach its border. Asia which also had witnessed growing conflict and fighting between Japanese and Chinese in the 1930s also became a major conflict involving all countries on the continent. This war would inflict misery and affect part of the country for the first time requiring diplomatic and military means to dela with Japanese aggression against the country.

In an attempt to keep both sides out of the country’s border it tried to appease both the Axis and Allies while using its neutral status to trade with whom it could. The fall of France in 1940 to the Nazi Germany made the threat of German invasion of the country a huge possibility. The government used deception and diplomacy to maintain the Nazi on the north side of the Pyrenes Mountains. As the war progressed Portugal played both sides trying to remain neutral and keep the war away from its borders, only abandoning that policy when it was safe from invasion.

The entry of the US in the war on the Allied side provided the Portuguese with some breathing room as circumstances on other fronts greatly diminished the threat of Nazi invasion but the US became increasingly belligerent toward Portugal over its continued trade with the Axis. The continued Allied pressure on the Portuguese intensified as the war progressed and finally forced Portugal to choose one side and forever give up on its dream of neutrality.

During the war industrialization and development of Portugal’s resources continued with the aid of several technology transfers from both the Axis and Allies. During the war Portugal was also beacon of hope for tens of thousands of refugees fleeing Nazi persecution, many of whom then made it their new home.

The historical information on Portugal and the major events impacting the country are presented in the following sections:

We now start the War Years and all that happened and affected the Portuguese and the world.

Return in next week on February 24 as we start the 1940s - politics.
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I love these updates!
Specially in how Portugal is turning out in this AU. :)

The section we've been waiting for! Really interested to see how this Portuguese Federation keeps the ship of state afloat through the WW2 era.
With a lot of cork to plug the holes. lol.

In reality it is very difficult task for the Portuguese, while iOTL it only had Tungsten which it along with Spain sold to both Allied and Axis countries the oil and other developed resources suddenly make the possibility of war coming to Portugal's doorstep and not only from Axis side. iOTL the Americans made several very threatening gestures towards the Portuguese and even went as far as stating that they would never let the Azores fall under Axis Portuguese control. The Portuguese government had close to 30,000 troops in the Azores to both guard it from American aggression but also to help defend it in case Axis invaded and the government was forced to evacuate from Lisbon.

Umm... it is the 18th right now!
Sorry my mistake I corrected it, new update on this Sunday.

Has Portugal been involved in rebuilding Spain?
This will be one of the main topics during the 1940s. iOTL the Portuguese did subsidize Spain to keep the Spanish neutral. So how will a much more economically developed Portugal react? We need to realize that a weak Spain is importance to Portugal, for a weak Spain will be less inclined to join the Axis. First major 1940s update on Sunday.
1940s - The War Years (1940 - 1945) - Politics (1of 2)


1940 – 1949 (cont.)

The War Years 1940 – 1945 (cont.)

Politics (1 of 2)
During the war Prime Minister João Semedo and the Portuguese government’s focus was to appease both the Allies and the Axis. To this end they attempted to play one against the other and to provide each side either with reason to accept Portuguese neutrality or believe they were preparing to enter the war on their side. Either way, there was in great relief on the Portuguese side when a clear winner became evident and the only decision left was to either enter the war or remain neutral. While the Prime Minister’s office was occupied with Allied & Axis the Minister of Economy and Finance preoccupation was in continuing the development of the Portuguese economy.

Strategic Development Plans
In 1940, the Portuguese government developed its 3rd “Strategic Development Plan” which called for investment in industry, infrastructure, housing, education and social services. With the world engrossed in major war, prices for raw materials, food and manufactured goods increased and as the world economies switched to war manufacturing the Portuguese economy was severely impacted as many projects and businesses developments were postponed or cancelled due to lack of raw materials, manufactured goods, machinery, vehicles and qualified personnel. The government’s Strategic Development plan called for price controls and rationing of food, basic goods and raw materials. This was done for the following three purposes i) to allow for equal distribution of food and basic goods for all citizens ii) to provide adequate supply of raw materials to businesses iii) provide resources and product that could be exported. The government plan also identified agricultural goods, raw materials and manufactured goods being produced in excess of national demand in order to export them to the Allied and Axis (once transportation routes through France were established). In addition, the government and industry identified agricultural products and raw materials which Portugal had the ability to increase production either for national consumption or export. The manufacture of consumer goods, manufacturing machinery and vehicles for national market was made a priority.

The onset of the war and increased demand for all basic goods including agricultural products resulted in shortages not only in Portugal but throughout the world. The Portuguese government worked hard to guarantee not only Portuguese supply but to strengthen Portugal’s position. The primary Portuguese source of wheat, corn and beef was Argentina and the Portuguese government increased its trade with Argentina, becoming the country’s major customer of wheat, corn and beef in return for sale of oil, refined oil products, as well as increased sale of manufactured and consumer goods to Argentina.[1] By the middle of the war the Portuguese had become the major purchaser of Argentinean agricultural products. The trade between Portugal and Argentina was very beneficial to Argentina with it being able to buy Portuguese goods at very good rates. Trade continued to increase by double digit year after year that by 1944 the Portuguese had become the largest purchaser of Argentinean agricultural products becoming for all intensive purposes the sole purchaser of the Argentinean products. The Portuguese in turn sold the excess to both Spain and the Allies reinforcing the value of trade and good relations with Allied nations.

The Minister of Finance worked with the National Industrial Council to guide Portuguese industrial development during the war. The Emphasis was to identify sectors limiting Portuguese development and to increase exports. With the Agriculture product prices rising very fast Minister of Finance and Minister of Agriculture also emphasized increasing agriculture production, proper land use continued to be emphasized. Wheat, potatoes and vegetable output were mandated while the movement away from subsistence farming in areas like Azores, Madeira and areas of Africa continued to be promoted and supported.

In 1940, the Portuguese government passed a new Citizenship Act, which provided a simplified framework for new immigrants to become Portuguese Citizens. Citizenship was open to any man or women over the age of 21 who had resided in Portugal (both Metropolitan and Ultramar) for minimum period of three years. That person had to be able to speak Portuguese and be literate.[2] In addition the Citizenship Act abolished the requirement to be Catholic which some conservative groups and the Catholic Church continued to lobby for. Any emigrant who was Christian or Jewish was allowed to apply to become citizen as long as they met the other criteria.

In 1942, the Elections Act was amended to reduce the President’s term from seven to four years and to hold the Presidential election at same time as the constituency elections. The Constituency was increased from 100 to 150 members of which the number representing the Ultramar provinces was set at 40. The 100-member constituency was replaced with 22 multimember constituencies and six single member constituencies.[3] The additional restriction on women was eliminated with women and men having the same requirements.

On 1 November 1942 elections took place with the National Union the only party allowed to contest the elections. The extended voting franchise to more women, new immigrants, Africans, Indians and Asians along with the increased literacy greatly increased the percentage of the population who could vote, and the level reached 22%. As for the Presidential election, President António Óscar de Fragoso Carmona, ran for re-election unopposed and was re-elected with over 86% approval rating for a new 4-year term.


Axis and Allies
At the start of the war, the Portuguese government publicly notified both the Allied and Axis nations of Portugal’s neutrality and its right to trade with all nations, but the Allies (Britain and France) refused to accept Portuguese and any other country’s neutrality and instituted a blockade of Germany stopping all ships transporting food, war material and other prohibited items to Germany. This cut Portugal off from its largest trade partner; Germany, which in 1939 accounted for over half of Portuguese exports and put the Portuguese – German relationship in jeopardy.

At first the Portuguese attempted to circumvent the blockade by increasing sales to Germany’s neutral neighbors but within a few months the Allies announced the implementation of right to inspect any ship and seize any goods destined for Germany even if being shipped to a neutral country. In October 1939 two Portuguese tankers on route to Denmark were intercepted in the English Channel. This was followed by the seizure of three more Portuguese ships travelling to Denmark. Their cargo including oil was seized on suspicion it was destined for Germany through Denmark. Portuguese government strongly protested British and French naval actions demanding that they recognize Portuguese neutrality. The Portuguese ships and crew were returned to Portugal but their cargo including the oil were seized. In November 1939 Portugal responded by announcing that Allied ships could only use the Lisbon and Setubal ports and that all other Metropolitan and Ultramar ports were closed to non-Portuguese ships. While this caused major congestion in these ports it emphasized to the Allies Portugal’s neutrality and also its control of Portuguese ports.[5]

The Germans responded by attacking any ships transporting goods to the Allies with U-boats. Unfortunately, they did not distinguish between Allied and neutral ships and attacked ships indiscriminately. In an attempt to prevent attacks from either side Portuguese ships wrote “PORTUGAL” on the sides of their ships in bright colors, unfortunately this did not always work and over a dozen Portuguese ships were sunk during the war. With German market inaccessible the Portuguese expanded their trade with the Allies and South America in 1939 selling them raw materials, food, oil and manufactured goods.

Iberian Plan and Axis Threat
Following fall of France Portugal re-started selling the Axis raw materials, food, oil and manufactured goods through Spain and Vichy France. When the British learned of the Portuguese trade they were angry, but Portuguese government was able to mollify Allied anger by increasing trade to British and British Commonwealth and only selling to the Axis approx. half what it had been selling to France. At first the British rejected the Portuguese offer but when the Portuguese provided the Allies with details of the Iberian Plan they relented.[6]

In 1940 after the fall of France, the danger of the war reaching Portugal increased exponentially. Nazi Germany approached both Spain and Portugal in joining the Axis. For the next two years Portugal attempted to play both sides meanwhile trying to stay neutral. In Autumn of 1940 Portugal re-started selling oil, food, strategic war materials and steel to Axis. The problem was transporting the materials and goods to Germany. At the meeting between Germany and Spain on 23 October 1940 at Hendaye France, Germany negotiated the elimination of Spain’s debt to Germany in return for its export of vital materials to Germany and for allowing the special “Iberian Trains” to pass through Spain. The UK became incensed at Portugal’s trade with Nazi Germany and began stopping Portuguese merchant ships travelling between Metropolitan and Ultramar Portugal. Portugal retaliated by closing its ports to Allied ships including the transport of raw materials from British and Belgium African colonies.[7] In December 1940 Portugal and UK resumed trade and the Allies stopped all interference with Portuguese shipping between Metropolitan and Ultramar Portugal.[8]

[1] By 1942 the Portuguese were the only country continuing to manufacture consumer manufactured goods which were sold to Brazilian and Argentinian markets. The entry of USA in the war in 1941 had stopped the sale of USA goods in these countries.

[2] Literate was defined as being able to read and write at a grade 4 level; which was the same as the definition for elections.

[3] The multi-member constituencies were as follows: Iberian Peninsula 10, Guinea 2, Angola 4, Mozambique 4 and Portuguese India 2. The single member constituencies were Azores, Madeira, Cape Verde, São Tomé & Principe, Timor and Macau.

[4] 13 women were elected.

[5] The exception being cargo from British Africa or Belgium Congo travelling through Portuguese Ultramar provinces and being transferred to foreign ships in Portuguese ports.

[6] The Iberian Plan was a detailed analysis of maintaining both Spain and Portugal out of the Axis. On 23 October 1940 German Chancellor Adolf Hitler met with Franco at Hendaye France to discuss Spain’s entry in the war on the Axis side. Portugal provided the Allies with intel and gave them the impression that Portugal was the only one keeping Spain out of the war on the Axis side.

In reality while Portugal did hold some influence with the Spanish government it exaggerated its influence with Franco. Prior to leaving for meeting, Franco met with the Portuguese ambassador in Madrid, at the meeting the ambassador re-iterated Portugal’s continued support for Spain and discussed the challenges Spain and Portugal would face if both joined the war on the Axis side. Both countries were dependent on trade to non-Axis countries and would suffer economically and socially from being cut off. Franco who was already very leery of entering the war due to continued lingering effects of the Spanish Civil War accepted the Portuguese support and planned on refusing German demands.

Armed with Portuguese support Franco made several large territorial demands in Africa (at expense of Vichy France) as well as demands for food and goods it was currently purchasing from Portugal and USA. Hitler was angered at Franco’s demands and the impact they would have on relationships with Vichy France which he valued more. Following the unsuccessful meeting with Franco Hitler met with Marshal Petain the leader of Vichy France in Montoire on 24th of October to solidify Vichy France’s support for Germany before leaving for Germany. That day an urgent message was sent to Lisbon inviting President Carmona to meet with Hitler in Montoire, but the Portuguese government slighted at the last-minute meeting request sent its regrets stating President Carmona health preventing him from travelling.

The Iberian Plan presented by Portugal re-iterated Portugal’s commitments to limit exports of Portuguese goods to Axis in meantime it increased Portugal’s support to Spain in order to maintain both countries out of Axis camp All while maintaining Allied sales at current level and promising that any future production increases to be divided equally between Portuguese and allied demands.

[7] In December 1939 PVDE uncovered plans by South Africa to invade and capture both Mozambique and Angola. The plan code named Operation Cecil was ultimately not approved by British government. Portugal responded by increasing its armed forces in Africa. By the summer 1940 its forces in Africa had tripled making any attempt to invade Portuguese Africa much more difficult.

[8] Following the interception and seizure of the seven Portuguese merchant ships off the African coast, which damaged Portuguese - UK relationship, British Prime Minister Churchill and Portuguese ambassador, Tovar to Monteiro, met over the month of November 1940. The result of these meetings was the Iberian Plan that allowed Portugal to remain neutral and continue its increased exports to Allies as well as limited exports to Axis. Churchill also instructed the British Ambassador in Lisbon to begin secret Portuguese – UK negotiations in December 1940 to strengthen Portuguese defenses and keep it neutral. The Portuguese – UK Accord of 1940 had the following main points:
  • Authorize Portugal to continue selling materials to Germany while increasing Portuguese exports to UK (Portugal exported to the Germans half of the oil and materials it had previously sold the French, in fact most of contracts were with Vichy France), while the remaining half was reserved for UK;
  • Portugal increased its credit to UK for purchases of Portuguese oil, war materials and resources.
  • Portugal to build 50 naval trawlers with UK to provide Portugal the technology to produce all required machinery (this was subsequently reduced to 20 when Germany found out about the Portuguese naval yards building ships for the RN).
  • Portugal to receive technology and support from several British companies to setup machinery, rail stock, transportation and aircraft plants in Portugal. All costs were borne by the Portuguese and the British companies retained 70% control and ownership of the companies. Retired and injured workers who could not be used in Britain came to Portugal as consultants and advisors.
  • Portugal to receive technology and support by several British companies such as Vickers, Parson, Yarrow and Rolls-Royce who at Portugal’s cost were allowed to setup up Portuguese subsidiaries. All costs were borne by the Portuguese and the British companies retained 70% control and ownership of the companies. Retired and injured workers who could not be used in Britain came to Portugal as consultants and advisors.
  • UK to assist Portugal in modernizing its armed forces including the sale of military equipment.

The Political situation of Portugal was by some historians compared to standing on a needle, with the slightest misstep causing the country to fall. The fact that Portugal had oil, resources and much more developed made it much greater prize. But in Portuguese favor was the existence of Spain with all its baggage including destroyed infrastructure and other needs that Germany could not afford to cover. After the fall of France the German military priorities were Battle of Britain and gearing up for invasion of Soviet Union. The Portuguese / Spanish were very low on the priorities (as long as Germany had access to Portuguese resources and oil). Therefore it was imperative that Portugal keep the Axis content and that the Allies knew that the movement of German troops into Spain would mean they would also loose access to Portuguese oil, resources and support.

Return in 2 weeks on March 3 as we continue the 2nd part of 1940s war years politics.
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If you are a lusophone fan I invite you to also checkout the Portuguese timeline in the pre1900 forum (see signature) and if have not voted for the rebirth of empire in the best colonial poll I invite you to do so. Thanks / obrigado.
1940s - The War Years (1940 - 1945) - Politics (2 of 2)


1940 – 1949 (cont.)
The War Years 1940 – 1945 (cont.)

Politics (2 of 2)

Portuguese-Axis Agreements
Between 28 August and 1 September 1939 over 25 German merchant ships docked in Portuguese harbors for what was officially “repairs or refueling”.[1] The declaration of war by Britain and France against Germany left them stuck in Portugal otherwise they risked being captured by Allies. From 2 September to 30 November another 40 ships of assorted sizes as well as four ocean liners such as the SS Bremen and SS Europa made it to Portuguese ports. All ships were transferred to Portuguese Lusitania Lloyd (LL) a subsidiary of Norddeutscher Lloyd and registered as Portuguese and renamed.[2] The Portuguese Lusitania Lloyd shipping company ships were integrated in the Portuguese Merchant Navy and their crews were integrated with Portuguese speaking sailors. Each ship either had a Portuguese speaking captain or first officer.[3] While the action was supposable illegal the Portuguese contended that Allies were doing the same thing with captured Axis ships and that only Portuguese neutrality prevented it for openly doing same thing.

In December 1939 Portugal and Germany signed a secret agreement to supply and support German U-boats at Portuguese Viana do Castelo military dry-docks.[4] Included in the agreement was the building on new submarine dock including covered shipyard to repair any damaged U-boats that arrived. In 1940, Portuguese U-boats played the game of dissimulation – if a German U-boat entered the naval base, one of the Portuguese submarines went out on patrol, maintaining the fiction that all subs on base were Portuguese. From 1941 with the construction covered submarine dock German subs were able to be supplied and repaired in the dock without risk of being seen.

In 1940 three damaged U-boats reached Viana dry-dock; Portugal was able to repair two U-boats which then left Viana. The crew from the remaining U-boat returned to Germany. In 1941, 12 U-boats arrived, and Portugal was able to repair seven, Portugal was able to cannibalize the damaged six U-boats into two working U-Boats VIIC. In 1942, 20 U-boats arrived but only 12 could be repaired, from the eight remaining damaged U-boats Portugal was able to rebuild one U-boat VIIC41. In 1943 due to increased Allied presence in and around Portugal, it informed Germany that it would no longer be able to re-supply German U-boats but would still allow damaged U-boats to go to Viana and crews would be allowed to return to Germany, but the U-boats would remain in Portugal. This greatly reduced the number of U-boats utilizing Portuguese base since only those unable to return to Germany sailed to Portugal. By spring of 1944 when Portugal terminated its agreement with Nazi Germany, six damaged U-boats reached Viana and Portugal having gained broad knowledge over the preceding two years was able to repair three U-boats VIIC41.[5]

In 1941 Portugal confronted Germany regarding counterfeit currency it had received as payment for goods it had sold Germany. The issue put the Germans in an awkward position as Portugal and Germany were negotiating Portugal joining the Axis. The ongoing Eastern front in Russia was taxing Germany as it tried to increase war supply, meanwhile it had run out of hard currency. The continued export of oil, vital war materials and other goods by Portugal was essential to German economy so it was forced to increase its payments in gold and military hardware.[6]

Portuguese - Axis Duplicity
The resumption of Portuguese exports to Germany did not stop German military from developing several German plans for the invasion of the Iberian Peninsula and the seizure of both Gibraltar and Portuguese oil fields.[7] To counter the threat in December of 1940 Portugal entered in secret negotiations with Nazi Germany to join Axis. Portugal’s demand unlike Spain’s, which was additional territory, was extensive technology transfers in order for Portugal to build up its forces since Germany could not provide enough troops to protect both Metropolitan Portugal and Ultramar provinces. During 1941 several major German firms such as Focke-Wulf, BMW, Junkers, Krupp, Daimler-Benz AG, Siemens, Gustloff-Werke and AEG amongst others began providing Portuguese instructions for manufacturing plants in Portugal to produce military equipment. Germany lacked both the money and personnel to build and staff the plants, the cost was bore exclusively by the Portuguese and the plants were to be staffed by Portuguese engineers and personnel. The Portuguese government began construction of these factories in what was termed “Closed Manufacturing Parks” that had extensive PVDE security. During 1941 the construction of the plants and training of staff progressing smoothly, but the construction of several “closed” manufacturing parks attracted allied attention and the PVDE was forced to eliminate many Allied spies who attempted find out what the Portuguese were up to. Even so news of Portuguese closeness to the Axis did reach London and relationship between Britain and Portugal was strained in Autumn of 1941.

In December 1941 two major events happened, the USA entered the war on the Allied side and a major complication arose in Portugal's negotiations with the Axis. The talks broke down over the Germany's insistence that Portugal arrest all Jews and send them to Germany. The Germans stopped all technology transfers and assistance in training Portuguese workers. Meanwhile Portuguese factories were completed but the Portuguese lacked sufficient technology and training to begin building the German military equipment. In addition, the industrial machines would not be completed till the summer of 1942. But by May 1942 the entry of the US in the war plus the difficulties Germany was experiencing in its Eastern Front forced the Germans to return to the negotiation table. Now desperate for Portuguese assistance the Germans dropped the Jewish issues. The remaining industrial machines were finished by end of summer and with the Portuguese engineers and technicians trained the Portuguese began building its first German military equipment prototypes. Things were going very well and Portuguese government anxieties about actually having to go through with joining the war increased, then on 8 November 1942 the world changed, with the first major western Allied offensive, the invasion of Vichy French North Africa by American troops. The opening of the western front along with continued Axis difficulties along the Eastern Front reduced the risk of Germany crossing the Pyrenees Mountain. Therefore, no longer fearing German invasion Portugal dropped all pretenses of joining the Axis and withdrew from negotiations. Using the real risk of Allied invasion both Spain and Portugal signaled that they did not wish to join the Axis. Germany was incensed at what they perceived the betrayal of the two Iberian countries. Their contempt for the Portuguese was especially harsh and a number of remaining Portuguese citizens and diplomats in Axis Europe were arrested. The Portuguese stopped all clandestine sale of Tungsten, oil and minerals to Germany. Hitler wrote a very critical letter to President Carmona condemning Portugal and threatening unspecified action. In February 1943 the situation for the Germans grew worse and German ambassador Oswald von Hoyningen-Huene worked feverishly to mend fences with the Portuguese government so that trade between the two countries could resume. The Portuguese agreed to resume clandestine trade, to guarantee that German troop stayed out of the Iberian Peninsula.

Portuguese – Allied Uneasiness
While the Portuguese were attempting to make the Axis believe they were on their side the Allies now headed by the USA increased their pressure on Portugal to stop its exports to Germany. During the spring of 1942 Portugal continued by its stand that as neutral country it had the right to sell its products to either side, but the USA was insistent and made what the Portuguese considered veiled threats. During the 1st half of 1942 the size of the Portuguese forces in Metropolitan Portugal increased by 30% while Ultramar forces were also increase in Ultramar provinces. Then in June the Portuguese ports of Lisbon, Setubal and Sines came to a standstill when dockworkers went on strike. News of Allied threats had reached dockworkers and they refused to load any allied ships.[8] In July negotiations once again commenced and this time the Allies, British Prime Minister Churchill was able to convince the US Administration that it was better to have a friendly Portugal on their side and the USA dropped any hint of military action. On 30th of July loading of Allied ships in Portuguese ports resumed then on 15 August 1942 the Portuguese – Allied Accord of 1942 was signed. In return for additional military and technological assistance Portugal agreed to only export to the Allies, and other neutral countries as well keep what it deemed necessary for domestic demand.[9] From September to November Portugal gradually reduced its public deliveries to Germany and on 20 November 1942 Portugal officially stopped all sales to German occupied Europe with the fall of Vichy France.[10] The Fall of Vichy France resulted in the doubling of German forces along the Spanish border and threat of Nazi invasion increased. After the signing of the secret Lisbon Accord between Portugal and German, the Portuguese clandestine exports to Germany started in 1943, due to increased Allied presence in the region there were limited only to oil, and strategic war materials and all exports were officially made to Spain, but the quantities delivered to Spain were greater than officially sold. The excess was then either flown out of Spain to Nazi occupied Germany or transported to occupied France where it was transferred to Nazi trains.[11] Portuguese oil exports to Germany had been reduced to 20% of its 1940-1941 levels.[12] In March 1943 Portugal agreed to also allow the Allies to use the airbase in Beja, Alentejo and more importantly open all Portuguese civilian ports to Allied shipping for first time.[13] By early 1944, it became obvious to the Portuguese government that the Allies were going to win, and negotiations started for Portugal to enter the war on the Allied side. The Portuguese government was convinced that the benefit of joining the Allies was greater than remaining neutral.[14] On 5 April 1944 Portugal declared war on the Axis.[15] All clandestine support for Germany including delivering of war materials and oil to Germany ended in March.

Axis Refuge
On 2 May 1945, the Portuguese Naval Yard in Viana received a message from an unknown submarine requesting permission to enter the naval base. The person communicating spoke Portuguese and identified themselves as German requesting asylum. The submarine, one of the last known German U-boat class XXI constructed, entered the base escorted by two Portuguese frigates and was escorted to the covered submarine docks. On board was the German deputy commander Hans-Georg von Friedeburg[16] who together with several other German officials had fled to Portugal requesting asylum. They brought with them the blue prints and schematics for the XXI as well as advanced German torpedoes. When news reached the Portuguese government, it decided that the offer was too good to turn down and the Germans were relocated quietly to remote parts of Portuguese Africa and lived out their lives in obscurity amongst the growing German migrants. In the coming weeks five additional U-boats appeared at Viana, three U-boat IXC/40 class and two IX class while the Portuguese navy in Porto Amélia in Mozambique took in two ICX/40 class and the Portuguese forces in Dili took in one ICX class. The Portuguese government kept the existence of these U-boats a secret from Allies and they were hidden in either the Portuguese naval base in Lobito Angola or Porto Amélia Mozambique. In 1946, a submarine base was added to each naval base. In 1945 as part of the disarmament of Germany Portugal received a dozen German U-boats none of which were the latest models. Over the next three years the Portuguese Navy paraded the “refurbished” U-boats which in all the cases were actually the U-boats it had rebuilt during the war or had secretly surrendered at end of war minus the XXI class. The ability of the Portuguese to refurbish the submarines made the US and Britain suspicious about the newfound Portuguese ability.

All German embassy staff including the German Ambassador were also granted Portuguese residency, during 1945 several senior German officials from the German Embassy in Madrid as well as German officials residing in Spain during the war also sought Portuguese residency. While the granting of residency to these Germans was public knowledge several thousands of other German military and government officials also fled to Portugal and hid amongst the growing German diaspora in the country.

Government Cabinet
During the 1st part of 1940s the priority for the Portuguese government was continued development and to maintain Portuguese out of both Axis and Allies camps (at least till a clear winner was evident). To accomplish this the men who had led the country in the later part of the 1930s were maintained, but a few new faces were added to deal with new priorities.

[1] In July 1939, Portugal and Germany signed a secret agreement that in event of war any ship that made it to Portuguese port would be transferred to Portuguese ownership and fly Portuguese flag till end of war at such time they would be transferred back to German flag. As German plans for the invasion of Poland finalized German transport companies ordered their ships to Portuguese ports as precaution without specifying to the captains the reason.

[2] In 1937 Norddeutscher Lloyd, one of Germany largest transportation companies, frustrated with Portuguese laws that charged foreign ships more than Portuguese ships decided to establish a Portuguese shipping company, Portuguese Lusitania Lloyd (LL). They then transferred 20 of their ships to the Portuguese subsidiary. During the summer of 1939 it registered 100 ships under Portuguese flag even though they did not exist at time. After the onset of the war it used those registrations to hide the German ships in Portuguese Merchant Marine.

[3] Following the end of war Portuguese Lusitania Lloyd remained Portuguese and all ships stayed as Portuguese registered. German sailors and captains were allowed to either bring their families to Portugal or immigrate back to Germany, 80% decided to remain in Portugal.

[4] As part of the agreement was a guaranty that German U-boats would not attack Portuguese ships, and, on many cases, German U-boats would surface close to Portuguese ships and after confirming the identity of the Portuguese ship they would depart. While the agreement did spare the merchant marine from devastations witnessed during WWI it still suffered the loss of over half a dozen ships and 46 sailors due to errors by German u-boats.

[5] Not all the crew members of the last six U-boats wanted to return to Germany. About half request asylum in Portugal, which was given.

[6] From 1939 to 1941 Portugal provided goods to Germany in exchange for mixture of credit and gold. Following the invasion of Russia Portugal acceptance of credit diminished and Germany was obligated to increase payment in gold. In 1942, the diminishing German gold reserves forced it to increase the sale of military hardware to Portugal in exchange for oil and war materials. It was estimated that during this period Portugal received at least 453.8 tons net in gold directly or indirectly from the Reichsbank. iOTL during this period Portugal received at least 123.8 tons net in gold directly or indirectly from the Reichsbank.

[7] German Operation plans code named Felix and Directive 18 were discovered by PVDE agents in 1940 and forwarded to Lisbon. While PVDE agents in UK also discover the British plan to seize the Azores and Madeira islands in case Portugal joined the Axis. Then using these islands to bomb Portuguese oil fields.

[8] This was all orchestrated by the PVDE. It would later be discovered that the US government was in favor of embargoing Portugal and going as far as bombing Portuguese ports and oil fields. Prime Minister Churchill convinced the US that Portugal was far more valuable on their side than in the Axis camp. During the seven-week walkout Portuguese dockworkers continued receiving their full salary.

[9] Portugal agreed to let both British and US forces use its Lajes Air Base in the Azores for anti-submarine patrols. Special protocols were put into place to prevent Allied ships from attacking Portuguese-U-boats by mistake.

[10] Portuguese sale of oil, war material and other goods was officially made to Vichy France from 1940-1942 never to Germany, although it was Germany who paid for it.

[11] This last Spanish action between December 1942 and March 1944 eliminated the remaining Spanish debt to Germany.

[12] Some historians attributed this to one of the reason German fortunes reversed on the eastern front. Germany was forced to divide its southern forces. Germany initiated plans in 1943 to seize the Russian oilfields of Baku along the Caspian Sea leaving its flank on the Volga River exposed to Russian counter attack.

[13] Unlike iOTL, the bases were still under Portuguese control, with a Portuguese commander, an US or British sub-commander and shared MPs.

[14] iOTL Salazar was against the idea and Portugal stayed neutral.

[15] News of Portugal’s negotiations with Allies was leaked to certain German operatives and on 3rd of April these, select German operators in the country received very discreet message to evacuate ASAP or in 48 hours they would be detained.

[16] iOTL the admiral was present at the Nazi Germany’s surrender following the capture of Berlin. iTTL he was reported dead due to suicide and his body burned.

[17] Was Minister of Defense (1922 – 1936)

[18] José Caeiro da Mata was born in 1877, he graduated with doctorate in law from University of Coimbra in 1906. He taught law at University of Coimbra and University of Lisbon till 1920, when he started working for Bank of Portugal. In 1931 he was appointed as a judge at the Permanent Court of International Justice in the Hague. In 1940 when Netherlands was occupied by Nazi Germany he returned to Portugal and was nominated as Portuguese Minister of Foreign Affairs.
[19] Marcelo Caetano was born in 1906, he graduated with a law degree in 1927 and received his doctorate in Political Economic Sciences in 1931. During the 1930s he worked in a variety of occupations; he was President of Fidelity Insurance Company, judicial auditor of the Ministry of Finances and founder Portuguese Administration Law. At same time he continued to teach law, Political Science and Constitutional Law. In 1940 his involvement in Portuguese government increased and in 1944 was nominated as Minister of Youth and Sport.
[20] João de Avelar Maia de Loureiro was born in 1901 and graduated with Medical degree from University of Lisbon in 1929. From 1930 to 1935 he studied and worked abroad in various countries. In 1935 he returned to Portugal to head the new Department of Health.
[21] Augusto Cancela de Abreu was born in 1895 and graduated as Civil Engineer from University of Lisbon. From 1925 to 1935 he worked for various large Portuguese companies. In 1936 he joined the Portuguese government as secretary for Public Works and Communications. In 1939 he transferred to Ministry of Interior as part of the re-organization and in 1940 became Minister of Interior.

The Portuguese faced with an impossible situation made the best decision they could, hoping that the friendly relations and sale of oil and minerals was enough to keep the Nazis away. But cornered by the Allies the Portuguese did everything in their power to keep their relationship a secret and the Portuguese - German interactions away from the Allies. The ability to rebuke the Axis in 1942 was a huge relief in Lisbon. During 1941 and early 1942 in which the Axis looked like they would win especially when Moscow fell the Portuguese believed that nothing would stop the Axis and the danger of them marching into the Iberian Peninsula was enormous so with no other option the Portuguese almost joined the Axis. The timely arrival of the Americans in North Africa along with surprise Soviet resolve put the Germans on the rope and provided the government to finally break their pretense. In 1943 the only decision the Portuguese had to make was would they remain neutral or join the Allies.

Note: While Portuguese were able to keep much of their dealing with the Axis a secret during the war the truth would come out after the war much to the chagrin of the Portuguese. Questions/ Comments?

Return in 2 weeks on March 16 as we outline the changes to the Portuguese armed forces during the war.
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The ability to rebuke the Axis in 1942 was a huge relief in Lisbon. During 1941 and early 1942 in which the Axis looked like they would win especially when Moscow fell the Portuguese believed that nothing would stop the Axis and the danger of them marching into the Iberian Peninsula was enormous so with no other option the Portuguese almost joined the Axis.
Moscow fell in this TL!
How, because of extra oil?
Moscow probably fell because since they had source of oil hitler never stoped the push for moscow for a month like otl.


Moscow fell in this TL!
How, because of extra oil?
Like iOTL, Tungsten was so crucial to the German war industry that if Portugal and Spain had not sold it and other minerals to Axis the Germans would of marched south of the Pyrenees mountains to secure it. This was one of the reasons that Britain was forced to accept that both Portugal and Spain sell it to both Axis and Allies. iTTL Portugal has another very important commodity, oil, along with iron ore and copper from Africa. This made the possibility of Spain and Portugal joining the Axis that much more possible. Britain had no means to defend Portugal and secure Portuguese resources from Axis so it followed the same pattern as iOTL consent to Portugal selling to both.

The entry of USA in the war made it harder for the Portuguese to continue its sales as it had during 1941. iOTL they were very hard on both Portugal and Spain to the point that both countries were only allowed to join UN till 1955 due to they two countries being designated as Axis sympathizers. It was through British diplomacy that America did not act out against both cutting off both oil and food exports. iTTL things for the Portuguese were more dire with its ties to Germany stronger and that was one of the reasons the Portuguese joined the Allies in 1944 instead of staying neutral like Spain.

As for the impact of oil exports Germany especially during 1941 when they were at they highest was very important. While majority of Portuguese exports were to the Allies enough was sold to Germany to make a significant impact to Operation Barbarossa especially in the 1st phase. Starting in 1942 exports to Germany started becoming more difficult to the point in 1943 that they were done in secret with it being smuggled into Spain and then to Germany and that had a huge impact on German capabilities. On a side note the availability of Portuguese oil in addition to other German sources had the affect to slowing own German efforts to convert coal to oil which really ramped up in 1942 as the difficulties mounted for Germany and the quick victory in the east did not materialize.

Where is the TTL border between the WAllies and the Soviet Union?
Are you asking about iron curtain?

Moscow probably fell because since they had source of oil hitler never stoped the push for moscow for a month like otl.
Yes see above.
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