Thank you for your input and yes there is a huge difference in iotl Estado Novo /Portugal and ittl estado novo / Portugal. The absence of Salazar will slowly allow for much greater progressive reforms in the 1940s onwards. One huge reform was the colonial act in late 1930s. For starter starting in late 1930s blacks, Indians and Asians who spoke Portuguese and were catholic became Portuguese citizens (this is decades ahead of iOTL) which helps eliminate a huge amount of resentment amongst many people. In the 1940s further liberalizing reforms are introduced to the act.First of all, great job @Lusitania as far as the work you've done already. My folks are from Cabo Verde and I'm always psyched to see anything Portugal related on the forums.
I generally agree with the analysis laid out here, only adding that there seemed to be a sociopolitical element to why Portugal could do something like this (and as some historians have further extrapolated, why they might have been able to maintain a federation with their African colonies while the idea was a simple non-starter in many other countries.) Of course, this cast of thinking is not all good, it's probably at least somewhat behind the viciousness and stomach-turning propensity for atrocities so often displayed during Portugal's wars during the era of African decolonization. Certainly, while the elements are there, the semi-fascist coalition of Salazar would never accept the peace offered by Amilcar Cabral (remaining with Portugal if Guinea-Bissau and Cabo Verde received one-man-one-vote progressive representation in the halls of power) because they'd realize that would mean "too much power" in the hands of blacks. All in all, the situation in Portugal is sorta unique and lends itself to a number of thought-provoking scenarios: whether it be the social-democrat dream of unity between black and white Lusophones or the OTL horror of village burnings and massacres.
(BTW, I'll be keeping an eye out for that certain Portuguese Guinean in this TL. He's basically considered somewhere between George Washington and Jesus Christ back in Cabo Verde and what he does ITTL will have a huge impact on not only Lusophone Africans but the African liberation movement as a whole. Hoping homeboy doesn't get assassinated here, for sure.)
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Secondly citizens are allowed to vote be they in metropolitan Portugal or ultramar provinces be they white, black, Indian or Asian. White settlement of Africa in late 1930s is already reaching iotl 1960s levels and the 1940s were transformative years.
The issue of one person one vote can be manipulated. Look at the communist countries, where everyone is allowed to vote. The biggest issue is who you are allowed to vote for. An African casting his vote for government approved candidate in Portugal or Portuguese federation is no different than African casting his vote in majority of African countries shortly after independence where one party rule was instituted in most countries. The difference is the candidates are all African in the African countries where in Portugal they be mixed.
Lastly for the individual mentioned Minister Cabral, I mean Mr Cabral his upbringing and education be much different than iotl and both his employment opportunities and politics would be shaped by economic, political and social issues he faced. So his future could very well be different.
This brings me to the colonial wars of 1960s. I will spell out that they are completely different, of different magnitude as well as world shaping importance but we have to get through the 1940s and most importantly the 1950s before we talk about them.