A Lusophone World
Lusitania
Donor
Well if you read Argentina 1950s you would see they enacted a similar plan in 1958 with Peron as president. He got hurt in the plaza attack and has lingering health problems including problems focusing for long period of time. A Peronist, economist and general joined together to government in his name.
As for both Paraguay, Uruguay they stay in the Brazil - Argentina orbit but governed by strongman with limited democracy. The only South American full democracy to be allied with federation and Argentina/Brazil is Chile. (More on Uruguay, Paraguay and Chile after Argentina.
The VW “ disagreement” had its roots in the late 1950s agreement to setup what was know then as Auto-Portugal. A joint VW - Portuguese company setup as part of the Portuguese WW2 reparations. This joint company 50% owned by Portuguese and listed on Portuguese stock market served as basis for all Portuguese / federation future vehicle manufacturer agreements (followed by 25% tariff on foreign manufactured vehicles). We discuss the trade and legal dispute in the federation economy section.
As for the Japanese they have a protected market and Portuguese have as much luck entering it as the Europeans and Americans did. We will have a section of the creation and growth of the commonwealth later. But what we can state was that federation and Brazil were the two largest manufacturers of vehicles in the commonwealth plus bring two largest economies with Argentina being a close 3rd. The vehicle manufacturing for both federation and Brazil were very important. The Brazilians wanted to grow their industry and the European (Renault), American (GM) and Japanese (Toyota) auto manufacturers that were in Brazil and not federation wanted to get into the federation and commonwealth markets at reduced tariffs. Hence the auto pack which was negotiated at same time the US and Canada were negotiating theirs. The result was that cars manufactured in either country could be sold tariff free in both as long as content % was reached. Portuguese content requirements prior to pack were 70% and as result of agreement were also increased. The agreement also allowed for “global manufacturing agreements” these agreements like one by Volvo allowed manufacturers to designate specific plants to produce product and or models for international sales. This allowed federation Volvo trucks to be sold in Europe as though manufactured in Sweden while Swedish manufactured car entered tariff free in federation and now into Brazil.
The Brazilian subsidiaries of the various vehicle manufacturers who had lobbied for the auto-pack were not happy with the content requirements and majority had to greatly increase their parts procurement in Brazil, federation or other commonwealth countries such as Brazil and Uruguay at start then both African and Asian commonwealth countries.
As for Brazil requirements of stock listing of the subsidiaries it was only 25%. Although in 1967 there was the “GM scandal” in which it was disclosed that GM had setup a another company 100% owned by GM and that company owned 80% of the GM Brasil stock listed on the Brazilian stock market. The newspapers and Brazilian opposition tried making a big deal of it but the government responded by thanking the whistleblower and charging GM with fraud. GM agreed to slap on hand fine but was forced to sell the stock on the Brazilian stock market and shut down the ghost subsidiary. The minister of justice then asked public for support or tips of any other fraudulent behavior stating that it would not tolerate any person or company who violated not only the law but the spirit of the law.
The trade between the Federation / commonwealth and soviet block and communist China was near or equal to 0. ITTL Macau also had no trade with communist China and unlike iotl Macau was not used as means to smuggle in western products to its leaders. The situation only got worse following the Pan African war with federation only having diplomatic relations with Poland and Yugoslavia. Majority of full member commonwealth nations following federation lead or no relations at all. While some trade was done it was mostly done through 3rd party with countries such as Kingdom of Baroda or Eastern Indonesian importing products/raw materials from communist or federation/commonwealth countries well in excess of their need and then selling the excess quantity to the other side. So while there was no official trade there was unofficial trade.
The thing is that iotl Bolivia had launched legal procedures against its neighbors snd demands its land illegally annexed by neighbor be returned with greater emphasis on lands taken by Chile and Peru.
Here we have president González following through on the promise he had made to his fighters during the revolution and fight to seize control of Bolivia plus Guevara is a huge influence in the government to spread the revolution elsewhere. The weakest country was Paraguay. So González being in box he created for himself and with Guevara egging him and Bolivian people to continue their fighting against imperialism.
There was also a lot of anger towards Brazil for their constant border incursions in pursuit of communist compatriots and bombings against remnants of Brazilian communists based in Bolivia.
As of now (more changes in future) There will be two major American immigration influxes that are different the huge Afrikaner emigration to the US. The exodus of whites from SA led to two different white emigration patterns. Those who were evacuated first usually moderate whites, blacks and Asians and then the Afrikaners. The two groups had a very different emigration pattern with the 70% of Afrikaners going to the US (mostly southern states) while 20% going to Australia. They will have a big impact on US. The Brazilian emigration to the US is about 3x that iotl but not as huge.
As for cultural impact that is to be seen if Brazilian foods and culture will be part of American society. The number of Spanish refugee from Peru, Columbia and other Spanish speaking countries of Latin America are definitely much greater and that will have an impact on the US. As for SA Impact, yes huge in the Southern US. More on the US in the foreign relations section.
Good economically but cool diplomatically and we delve deep into that in the foreign relations section.
Lusitania
Donor
Brazil like the Federation and Argentina does accept emigrants and all 3 countries continued to be destination to those fleeing war and violence as well searching for better life.
During the 1960s there was no exodus from Europe and most of not all European countries were actually also looking for emigrants. Spain and Greece were two poorest countries in Europe and many of its citizens went to work in Germany and other European countries.
The other traditional immigrant countries América, Canadá, Australia and New Zealand also competed gor emigrants to feed its growing economies. This resulted in a very competitive market to attract emigrants.
Now with Europe tapped out and many countries looking to attract Europeans we are left with several other areas of the world that would become new centers emigration. South Americans, Africans and Asians were all fleeing poverty and war the acceptance of these people was based entirely on national priorities and country specific criteria used to admit imigrantes.
Brazil and Argentina with few Europeans choosing to emigrate to them did turn to emigrants from South America and to imigrantes with education and skills they needed from Asia.
Lusitania
Donor
Yes, we will have few mentions about environment in both economic and health sections.
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Venditg
Banned
@Lusitania So she in her 20s but her parents are much older than than that. If I understood correctly her mother is mid 50s and her father apparently late 60s, the younger of 8 children.
If I understood correctly he was a military men in Mauritania, but for what reason she isn't sure.
I replied so late because I didn't get a notification and had to look through the thread.
Lusitania
Donor
Hi no problem, I think the biggest decision to serving in Mauritania might be his religion. Till 1974 the Catholic church had a strong hold on the country and only since then has its grip been loosened. That might of been my best guess. If the father is late 60s today that mean h could of been drafted into the colonial wars in 1972-1974 and could of been serving there at time of revolt. So what would he do if he not want to return to Portugal? He could not really stay in former Portuguese colonies and with his religion he could of then hired on to serve in another country in Africa. But that speculation.
Venditg
Banned
@Lusitania would a recently independent country such as Mauritania hire what would be a living symbol of colonialism? If I remember my history correctly Mauritania, as much is it today sadly, was in a situation of "beggars can't be choosers".
Lusitania
Donor
I will cover these countries in the foreign Relations section.
Thank you for the vote and congrats. It is a pleasure to write and interact with its readers and fans. I would really like to thank everyone who voted for the TL. Next update coming ASAP.
1960 - World - Argentina
Lusitania
Donor
1960 – 1969
World (cont.)
World (cont.)
Argentina
Argentina
From Peron to start of the Post Peron Era
Argentina entered the 1960s with both confidence in itself and under a cloud of political uncertainty. The 1950s had been a transformative decade as Peronism had bent and molded to fit the precarious situation the country found itself in. During the previous decade, the country had taken huge steps in transforming itself from an agrarian economy to an industrial one able to produce many of the goods it required and provide its people with a high standard of living. In that process it had reformed many of its laws to allow foreign investment as the country sought sources of foreign currency it could use to modernize and industrialize. Resource development became a huge boon to the economy by providing much needed resources for its own development but also to export but many challenges remained as different segments of the economy faced problems. The leading political leader during the 1950s was none other than Juan Domingo Peron who had defined Peronism as way to modernize the country and transform it under the control of the Argentinians themselves. President Juan Domingo Peron was both popular figure but also a divisive who inspired adoration from his admirers but also hatred from his adversaries. The hatred for Peron culminated in the 1955 Plaza de Mayo attack that left 300 people dead 1,000 injured included in those injured was Peron himself. That could have been the end of Peron and Peronism but Peron unwilling to let his dream for Argentina die stunned both supporters and adversaries by assembling a team of top ministers to govern the country while he recovered. He appointed Rogelio Julio Frigerio as Finance & Economic Minister, the strong Peronist Domingo Mercante as Minister of Labor and General Eduardo Ernesto Lonardi Doucet as the Minister of Defense and Security to control the military and police.
In 1958 Peron and his party won the Presidential and Chamber of Deputies election but Peron health never fully recovered and both his physical and mental ability was limited. Peron continued both physical and speech therapy so that by 1960 he was able increase his public appearances and make short statements and answer questions. But everything was carefully choreographed, and Peron never regained control of the government which remained under the direction of the Triunvante.
President Juan Domingo Perón (1895 – 1964)
Rogelio Julio Frigerio | Domingo Mercante | General Eduardo Ernesto Lonardi Doucet |
Finance & Economic Minister | Minister of Labor | Minister of Defense and Security |
The Argentinian Triunvante (1958 -1962)
From 1955 to 1962 the country continued to witness strong economic growth as foreign investment continued to flow into the country attracted by the strong economy. Argentinian production of domestic appliances, vehicles and other consumables finally reached a level equal to domestic demand. Under Minister Frigerio the country manufacturing, mining and agriculture contributed to success of the country, but the economic and monetary policies of the government benefited some sectors more than others. The economic success of the 1950s had left the country with a overvalued currency that by 1960 hindered exports especially resources and agriculture. The barter system was able to take some pressure off government but in 1961 the government announced the devaluation of the currency by 25% which angered many people living in cities and many businesses as cost of many goods and machinery that was imported increased. There were many demonstrations in major cities, but country stayed stable.
After about two weeks on unrest President Peron went on television and radio and spoke for over 40 minutes about the great challenges that country faced while at same time reminding people of the great progress the country had made in the last two decades and how its people had been blessed. The conversation took people back to the early years of Peron rule in which he would regularly talk to the people with his “pep talks”. The Peron chat had a calming effect over the country and while many were still upset about the changes the spark seemed to dissipate. Over the next year Peron would make these monthly television/ radio talks (usually on a Sunday night) and they seemed to give people hope of better times ahead.[1]
In 1961 the Triunvante that was the de facto government of Argentina suffered a major blow when General Eduardo Ernesto Lonardi Doucet the Minister of Defense and Security became sick. He was diagnosed with cancer and flew to Portuguese Federation to be treated at the Hospital da Luz in Lisbon the country’s top cancer hospital. But the cancer was to far gone and General Doucet returned to Argentina two months later and died on 5th of October 1961. Th death of General Doucet set off a power struggle within the Argentina military command to replace him in the Triunvante. The two leading candidates were General Juan José Valle and General Pedro Eugenio Aramburu Silveti. General Valle was favored by Peron faction while General Silveti was favored by the conservative and anti-Peron faction of the military. On October 10th there was an assassination attempt on General Valle, but he survived although he was hospitalized for three weeks. During his hospital stay based on the investigation into the assassination attempt a purge of the more conservative anti Peron military leaders occurred which included General Silveti who was implicated in the assassination attempt. He along with 20 other military leaders were tried and found guilty of treason and sentenced to death. On 2 November 1961 upon his discharge from the hospital General Juan José Valle was sworn in as Argentina’s Minister of Defense and Security.
General Juan José Valle General Pedro Silveti
In 1962 Argentina once again prepared to hold elections for president and Chamber of Deputies. Rumors of Peron health had slowly leaked and both Peron and Justicialist Party decided that if Peron was to run once again for President, he would need to come clean about his health. Peron went on television/radio and announced that while his health had never fully recovered since the attack he had remained in charge and that his government had continued the great work they had started he would be running for the last time for President. He seemed to speak to the soul of the people and explained to the people that while it would be easier to just retire but as his loving wife had shown the most important duty was to serve the people and the next term was necessary as a way to guarantee the Peronist Vision for Argentina would continue and that he could groom a successor. Peron did not campaign but held weekly chat during the election.
Arturo Umberto Illia | Juan Domingo Perón | Oscar Eduardo Alende |
Radical Civic Union (UCRP) | Justicialist Party | Intransigent Radical Civic Union (UCRI) |
1962 Presidential Election Candidates
The two other presidential candidates campaigned but it was as if they were campaigning against a ghost and on election date Peron won 72% of the vote while his Justicialist party worn 64% of the deputies cementing their control over congress and guaranteeing Peron his mandate.
On 10 March 1963 Peron had a small stroke and for first time in over a year he missed his monthly chat. In sharp contrast to previous attempts to hide his medical condition this time the government allowed his doctors to go on television and make statements about Peron health. A month later cameras were allowed for a few minutes in his room showing Peron discussing government business. Six month later news reports would show Peron attending cabinet meetings. But all these were only for show as Peron was more and more shun from daily government running.
During the remainder of 1963 and first half of 1964 Peron made brief appearances on television but he looked frail and the country waited anxiously as Peron health deteriorated in the front on the country. On 19 March 1964 Peron was admitted to the Hospital Británico and he died in his sleep on 25 March 1964. The country was in mourning for a month and his funeral was attended not only by millions of people but some of the worlds most important leaders such as President Goulart of Brazil, Dr. Antonio Rapazote Prime Minister of Portuguese Federation, John William McCormack speaker of the US House of Representatives led the American delegation and George Alfred George-Brown deputy Prime Minister of Britain amongst many dignitaries and heads of state. Absent were leaders from Soviet Block and other communist countries.
Perón's funeral cortège along the Avenida de Mayo
On 15 April 1964 under the direction of the Triunvante the Argentinian Congress nominated Arturo Frondizi Ércoli of the Justicialist Party as President of Argentina. He was sworn in as President on 1 May 1964. His term as President was turbulent as he had a hard time working with the Triunvante who were in fact the leaders of the country. While his policies were for most part similar to those enacted by the Triunvante, President Frondizi had expected the Triunvante to be subordinate to President while the Triunvante wanted a President who was more ceremonial instead of actual leader. The power struggle became so heated that both the President and Triunvante issued opposing proclamations stripping the other of its power. While constitutionally President Frondizi was the ruler of the country the Triunvante controlled the courts, police and military and on 1 July 1965 the President was stripped of his powers and held under house arrest.
Arturo Frondizi Ércoli
President of Argentina (1964 -1966)
In 1966 the country once again held elections in which the opposition parties were severely restricted and weakened by government tactics to prevent them from competing with the Justicialist Party and their allies. With the President having lost majority of its power there were not a great many candidates who wished to become president. In end the voters were provided with two main candidates Arturo Umberto Illia representing a united opposition and Héctor José Cámpora representing the Justicialist Party. The election was marred by voter irregularities, in the end the Justicialist Party won another majority and Héctor José Cámpora won 53% of the vote becoming Argentina’s new President.
Arturo Umberto Illia | Héctor José Cámpora |
Radical Civic Union (UCRP) | Justicialist Party |
Economic Development
The surprise devaluation of the Argentinian Peso gave domestic manufacturers and exporters alike a jolt as exports became cheaper and imports more expensive. Argentina growing manufacturing base including domestic appliances, clothing, vehicles and machinery also received boost with both American and European manufacturers investing in Argentina. Homegrown industry also grew with the Argentina government decision to transfer manufacturing of several of Argentina’s best domestic vehicles from National Directorate of Aeronautical Manufacturing and Research, abbreviated (DINFIA) to private enterprises. The state-owned complex in early 1960s was producing a variety of vehicles such as the Justicialista and the Graciela automobiles, Rastrojero small pickup truck that had been expanded into larger truck called the Gauchita and Camión Frontal along with prototype bus. It had also developed the Pampa tractor and by 1962 has 4 different model and series of configurations. Lastly was the Puma motorbike series. Private domestic companies which also included upto maximum of 30% foreign investment bought the models, designs and ownership from government. DINFIA continued designing and manufacturing domestic appliances, various boats and outboard motor Surubí. It also started producing generators, turbines and in 1965 started manufacturing mining equipment and vehicles. On the military side it continued manufacturing planes, weapons and military vehicles.
Argentina continued to expand both thermal power plant as well as Hydro Electric construction. During the 1960s the country also expanded the electrical grid bringing electricity to even the most remote parts of the country. In 1969 the National Atomic Energy Commission in conjunction Portuguese Federation power company Luso Power began construction of Argentina first nuclear power plant.
Argentina mining continued to expand and that spurred expansion of the country’s railways. Which during the 1960s were in a state or re-organization Ferrocarriles Argentinos (FA) the operator of all Argentina railways as it closed redundant lines and expanded the lines to the mining areas along the border with Chile in the Andes Mountains. In 1965 the government sold 50% of the national rolling stock manufacturer Fábrica Argentina de Locomotoras ("FAdeL") to Portuguese company Henschel & Sohn who promised to invest in Argentina and produce Portuguese diesel engines and other rail stock in Argentina. In Buenos Aires the metro both underground and above ground in the suburbs. The metro operator Subterráneos de Buenos Aires Sociedad del Estado (SBASE) continued its aggressive expansion during the 1960s. In 1967 Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil announced the signing of plan to build a railway link between three countries. In 1969 FA started building a railway bridge over the Uruguay River to eventually link Uruguay Railway being built from Montenvideo to Argentina border to the Argentina railway.
During the 1960s both the mining and agriculture industry continued to experience shortage of labor and both industries became dependent on migrant labor especially from Bolivia and Peru which suffered continued communist insurrections. Argentina had several refugee camps along its border Bolivia. Migrants also came from Paraguay and Uruguay.
During the 1960s the Argentinian economy continued to grow and with the growth increasing by 30% when Argentina joined Lusitanian Commonwealth as associate member the same year as Brazil. Argentina was able to maintain protection for many of its domestic industries as associate member while giving preference to commonwealth goods as opposed to non-commonwealth goods but more importantly it was able to gain preference access to Federation and Commonwealth markets for its agricultural products. In essence Argentina became the Federation and commonwealth primary source of grains and other agricultural products. While the Federation became Argentina primary source of manufactured goods. Another major factor became Federation barter system that provided each country with ability to purchase and sell goods at agreed exchange thus helping Argentina foreign currency reserves.
Foreign Relations and Exterior Military Entanglements
During the 1960s Argentina external relations was dominated by two things American attitude towards Argentina and its government as the communist insurrections occurring to the north in Columbia, Peru and Bolivia. The changing of American administration from Republican to Democrat at the start of the 1960s did little to bring Argentina and USA closer together. With some Ambassadors being more unwelcome than others in 1960 Roy Richard Rubottom, Jr. was appointed ambassador to Argentina but so caused so much discord between the two countries that he was replaced in 1961 by Robert McClintoc. The American administration of President Kennedy and Johnston were antagonistic and maintained sanctions and restrictive trade on Argentina over its relations with other countries that the USA believed to be against American interests. Namely the growing military, diplomatic and economic relationship with the Federation. Several critics have cited that instead of facilitating trade between Argentina and USA and providing better support than the Federation (which they could) successive American administrations continued to believe in applying pressure alone to force Argentina to buckle but instead it pushed Argentina to further its relationship with the Federation. In the mid-1960s when JK assumed power Argentina and Brazil also started becoming closer feeding off each other anger at the American schemes in South America.In 1966 Argentinian and Brazilian governments became alarmed at the increased US involvement in the affairs of Uruguay which lay between the two countries and was an excellent location to spy on both countries. The situation in Uruguay was very fluid and things changing very rapidly. As the leaders of Argentina and Brazil discussed intervention there were some in the military and government who thought it was too risky but in end the intervention was approved, and the joint Argentinian and Brazilian intervention went off without any major incidents. The installation of friendly government in Montevideo and the withdrawal of both Argentinian and Brazilian forces before the deadline announced at the onset of conflict proved to be in Argentina favor. Following the invention in Uruguay Brazil and Argentina expanded their military cooperation, defense and alliance treaty.
In 1968 Argentina was “dragged” into another military intervention this time in Paraguay. While Argentina waited for General Andrés Rodríguez to request assistance, Argentina was actually one of the primary supporters of General Andrés Rodríguez coup against General Stroessner and the Colorado Party. Argentina was the first country to recognize President Rodríguez seizure of government and when he requested help from its neighbors, Argentinian forces were already along the border waiting permission to cross and both Argentina and Brazilian forces moved into the country and defeated the Paraguay forces loyal to Stroessner. The installation of President Andrés Rodríguez in Paraguay left Argentina with two neighbors that were not aligned to Argentina Chile to the west and Bolivia to the north. Relations between Chile and Argentina were cordial while at times tense. In 1964 with the election of Christian Democrat Eduardo Frei Montalva as President of Chile began to bring the two countries closer. President Montalva had very ambitious social programs to both modernize the country and raise the people standard of living. To accomplish this, he moved the country more aligned to both Argentina and Brazil but more importantly with the Portuguese Federation.[2]
Relations between Argentina and USA sank to their lowest level following the Paraguay intervention. 1968 was an election year in the US and both the American administration of President Humphrey and his Republican challenger Richard Nixon condemned both Argentina and Brazil and promised undisclosed American intervention and actions during the election. But events would soon play into the Argentina and Brazil favor. In September 1968, the government of Peru suffered its greatest defeat to the communist rebels with the fall of Lima. Meanwhile the Bolivia government collapsed, and Communist General Juan José Torres González assumed power in La Paz. The situation in South America many believe contributed to Nixon victory as the American people felt threatened by the deteriorating situation in Latin America. The attitude in Washington was one of desperation and the USA reached out to Argentina as well as Brazil and Chile to get their assistance in containing the growing communist threat. Coincidently Bolivia issued a declaration of war against all its non-communist neighbors demanding all seized territory from the previous century. On 15 December 1968 the three countries met in the Argentina city of Cordoba and planned defense of Paraguay and the invasion of Bolivia with the ultimate objective of defeating the communist forces threatening the continent.
[1] The television/radio talks were billed as live chats between Peron and the people of Argentina but in reality, they were a huge undertaking. It would take almost a week for the speech writers and Peron to agree on the speech and then almost two weeks to taping small sections of the speech at a time (due to Peron health) and then assembling all the different segments into a single program.
[2] See 1960 – 1969, World, Chile.
Sorry for the delay several events conspired to delay my writing of this post. First as I have indicated I write several months in advance and had all of 60s and 70s completed but when I started posting the Portuguese-South America section did not seem right and been revising the section since the 1940s. We have till the 1950s seen a small deviation in the events and lives of South America with majority being concentrated in Brazil and Argentina. As we got to 1960s several major events were needing to be changed as the iTTL Argentina had deviated sufficiently to make the changes necessary.
So what have we changed? Basically everything.. to understand how we have to gotten to this situation we need to read Argentina 1950-1959 in which Peron was hurt in the attack but instead of losing power he become the figure head for Argentina Triunvante that combined military, economic and people power into s single government. What this meant both in the 1950s and 1960s was a Argentina that continued to grow economically, with mining, agriculture providing the exports and manufacturing providing increased manufactured goods for Argentina market. What we also had was a neighbor who was undergoing the same type of transformation. Around them we also have Communist threat that would change both the geo-political balance with communist threat real. Questions/ Comments?
Return on March 21st we discuss the Uruguay & Paraguay..
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I was waiting for Chile to come around, finally it did.
The more Successful the Luso Commonwealth is in contrasting with it's unstable neighbors the more attractive it'll be to smaller powers not aligned with West-Red blocks.
Would Mysore survive the DUI surrounding it like that.
~EDIT~
Hopefully this prompt the US to take a more 'Japan' &/or Marshall Plan approach to stabilizing nations of interest.
The more Successful the Luso Commonwealth is in contrasting with it's unstable neighbors the more attractive it'll be to smaller powers not aligned with West-Red blocks.
Would Mysore survive the DUI surrounding it like that.
~EDIT~
Hopefully this prompt the US to take a more 'Japan' &/or Marshall Plan approach to stabilizing nations of interest.
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Lusitania
Donor
There will be two more post about South America - Chile & Paraguay/Uruguay. I will leave the details of each these countries 1960s to be explained in their individual posts.
To answer your question I think we need to understand both the situation in the US during the 1960s and the regions political situation.
The US politically suffered from a fractured political leadership with the country having four different Administrations. Three democratic and one Republican.
The Democratic administrations (Kennedy, Johnson & Humphrey) each had a different approach to Americas with American policy becoming more progressive as time went on. President Humphrey administration was the one that started support policies that addressed many of the core causes of people supporting communist rebels (poverty, discrimination & inequalities). Unfortunately he was the president that had the least amount of time and was under the most pressure as communism continued its advance. When the Republicans came to power in 1969 they stopped all support for reform. One of the cornerstones of American policy started under President Kennedy was Alliance for Progress (which was the American equivalent to Marshal plan). The biggest deterrent to its success was the fact that majority of the region's governments were against it for it targeted many of the special interest and most powerful leaders in each country. Another factor was the perceived American advantage or bias in the plan in which it seemed that only the American multinational companies benefited from the plan. Lastly what inevitably doomed the plan was the need for America to maintain the region free from communist threats and the American view that conservative element of the regions was the best suited for the task The conservatives and those in power were able to use the premise of staying aligned to US while at same time having the US turn a blind eye to their treatment of people and the abuses within the countries. Those countries that elected neutral or left leaning governments like Dominican republic in 1963 and Chile 1970 (iOTL) resulted in American CIA and government conspiring with conservative elements in those countries to bring those elected governments down. By 1970 the Alliance for Progress was pretty much forgotten.
iTTL Latin America is different than iOTL. The American sponsored invasion of Communist Cuba was successful and Nationalist Cuba was able to liberate 2/3 of the island leaving a rump of Communist Cuba in the north. A communist Cuba separated from Nationalist Cuba not only by a 10 kilometer barrier "no-mans land" running across the island but also by policy where anyone trying to flee was executed as traitor. It sought revenge on the west and its primary export was revolutionaries and communist mercenaries to every country in the region. Coupled with a more aggressive Soviet and Chinese expansion in the region that sets off a cascade of war. As we indicated in past posts the region was plagued by communist insurrections with communist rebels operating in almost every country. The worse affected were:
Bolivia - this was the first country other than Cuba to fall to communism but unlike Cuba it was aligned with China. As the decade came to no an end the ew communist government of Bolivia had just started a war with all it neighbors (except Peru). This along with economic and social policies would link these countries closer together and with Portuguese Federation and Lusitania Commonwealth.
Peru - the fall of Lima in 1968 to communist rebels (Chinese backed) would of normally resulted in the fall of US backed government but Maoist rebels only controlled a 1/3 of the country with remainder split between Leninist rebels and US backed president Alvarado. The saving grace for new President Alvarado and his forces was that communist rebels fought as much against themselves as they did Peru’s forces and the close to 100K US forces in country. In 1969 the new American administration had made it their priority to liberate Lima.
Columbia - another country in Latin America that over 2/3 of the country was under communist rebels control. But like Peru the communist rebels were not United and 3 different groups operated in the country. (2 Soviet and 1 Chinese backed ) fought one another as much as the government of president Restrepo and the US who like in Peru had substantial number of troops in country (approx. 70,000).
Ecuador/Panama/Venezuela - these three countries also had significant communist insurrection movement levels operating in them but by end of 1960s had somewhat limited their control operations to the more remote areas of the country. The unfortunate factor in their war against communist was that these countries governments had rejected reforming and progressive approach to eradicate the rebels of support amongst the poor and marginalized and instead relied on old military approach. The 1970s would be crucial decade in their struggle.
Reformists (Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua and Costa Rica) have taken what many saw as the answer to the inequalities and problems plaguing the region. Inspired by Nationalist Cuba who having seized 2/3 of the island of Cuba decided to maintain all of the rights and protections the Cuban people had gained under Castro but also gave them freedom and ability to decide their own destiny. These countries with initial American support and investment made great headway in tackling the problems affecting them. In turn turning the people away from communists and turning the rebels against the people thus aligning the people with the government. Note: calls by many in Congress to extend the same policies and support to rest of Latin America were sidelined by the Nixon Administration that while doing nothing to hinder these countries reforms and support did not support extending it further.
Mexico - was in country living in what many described two different realities. The southern region with its large indigenous population and poverty proved fertile ground for communist and rebel activity and attacks against landowners and government are increasing with Communist activity growing while it is decreasing in neighboring countries to the south. Mexico military forces along with American support are conducting extensive patrols and operations in region but even so the communist threat in the southern part of the country is growing. In contrast the central and northern parts of the country are relatively quiet although protests continued to grow to the government. Politically the situation is becoming more complicated with the PRI who have been in power in Mexico since 1929 splintering into reformist and conservative camps, with the Army while no longer part of the PRI aligning itself with conservative side. Demonstrations such as the those that occurred around the 1968 Summer Olympic Games were brutally suppressed or put down with hundreds arrested and in the case of the 1968 Tlatetolco Massacre several hundreds were killed by what the government called exchange between communist rebels and government forces. Mexico was another country that the 1970s would determine its fate.
Caribbean - the communist threat in the region during the 1960s had resulted in both the British and Canadian forces being deployed to English speaking commonwealth countries including British Honduras and Guiana. The French increased the number of troops in the region also as did the Dutch who came under attack in Suriname. The island that most troubled the region was Hispaniola comprising of French Haiti and Spanish Dominican Republic. American forces provide support to both countries in dealing with uprisings, The Dominican Republic had been invaded by the American forces in 1964 to what President Johnson described as reestablish order and prevent a second Cuba. In 1963 leftist Juan Bosch had been elected but within a year had been overthrown spurring a revolt by his supporters. In 1965 the US pulled most of its forces out and President Balaguer backed by American military and government was able to reestablish control of the country, Meanwhile in western part of the island Haiti lived under the constant fear from President Duvalier known as 'Papa Doc' and his private militia known as Tontons Macoutes ("Bogeymen"), which maintained order by terrorizing the populace and political opponents. Uprising against his rule were violently suppressed, with the ringleaders publicly executed and hundreds of mixed-raced citizens in the town killed. Despite the well-publicized abuses under his rule, Duvalier's firm anti-Communism earned him the support of the Americans, who furnished the country with aid.
Lusitania
Donor
In regards to the commonwealth, you are right as the 1970s start the success of the commonwealth will become evident and there will be countries from Latin America, Africa and Asia that will start joining in Just like European countries all wanted to join EEC.
In the 1960s is when the commonwealth gains traction and both economic weight and strength. The inclusion of Brazil and Argentina give the commonwealth legitimacy.
Some historians compared commonwealth to the EEC with the federation to Germany, Brazil to France and Argentina to Britain (economically) so will see more information and interaction about commonwealth in the next decade.
Now in regards to Indian subcontinent (we will have extended section on it in the 1970s). But I can say that both Mysore and Hyderabad gained access to the sea during the Indian civil war. Mysore has access just south of Goa to west coast while Hyderabad has access to the Bay of Bengal.
Mysore and Hyderabad have a long border together and Mysore also borders Goa to the west and Tamil Nadu to the south.
the Democratic Union of India (DUI) is the main proponent of uniting the various Southern Indian countries (Baroda, Hyderabad, DUI, Mysore and Tamil Nadu into single country (some in DUI also want to incorporate communist Travancore into the union). The other countries have either been lukewarm to the idea, playing lip service or indecisive but after over 20 years of independence none are really keen to join DUI. They happy with current situation and we will also see greater integration by some with the commonwealth.
This is interesting, the Big Three. Uruguay would then be the Netherlands or Denmark. The biggest loser of this emerging Tri-polar world order is the Communist Block, compared to OTL and internally fractured as it is.
I think the general population of the subcontinent and the atrocious OTL wealth gap might actually be better off this way. The DUI might try at an 'Indian' commonwealth as prospects of united India dwindles and the Luso Commonwealth encroaches before the government inevitably falls.
Lusitania
Donor
It is and the Communist block for the foreseeable future will continue split into 2 camps that hate each other as much as they hate the west. But that does not mean they are less dangerous. For China without Mao and his crazy ideas, is developing a strong communist economy similarly to Soviet Union did after their revolution. What the Chinese have in abundance is millions of people which are used in great numbers to advance theses projects thus saving the need for expensive machinery. They also expendable. So they are industrializing , farms being organized in collectives. Extra peasants not needed sent to work camps, mines and industrial projects.
As we have seen the the world is a more dangerous place with communism making inroads in places it did not iotl.
The Indian subcontinent till 1970 is dominated by republic of India that sits atop the other Indian states ready to pounce. Blocking it is mutual defense agreement between all these countries (including Pakistan which still includes east and west.)
The Indian civil war left a huge scar in the region.
1) Pakistan grabbed all of Kashmir and part of West Bengal in the war with republic of India.
2) republic of India has border with three Indian states (Baroda, DUI and Hyderabad)
3) Republic of India still claims these areas and its has claimed them as occupied. Border clashes while not regular fo occur periodically and the borders between Republic of India and its neighbors is heavily fortified and little to no trade occurs along the border. What trade does occur mostly agricultural is done by sea.
4) Geopolitically things also make diplomacy difficult. The Republic of India is aligned with the US making US diplomacy with other Indian nations difficult. No arms sales or other sensitive equipment allowed (per republic of India). What makes US stay aligned with republic of India is Pakistan being aligned with Soviet Union.
This leaves the rest of Indian states non aligned with federation, Britain and France being the primary economic, military and political supporters of them (except travancore which is hermit commits nation). All of the southern Indian states belong to British commonwealth (republic of India, Pakistan and Travancore left commonwealth). Both France and Federation which are the only two European nations with territories in the Indian subcontinent have also extended their nuclear umbrella to the southern Indian nations.
5) standard of living differences between republic of India and southern neighbors by end of the 1960s has greatly diverged with southern states between 2-3 times as prosperous. Only the heavily guarded border with barbed wire, mine fields slows the flow of people wishing to migrate south to a trickle. The interesting thing is that neither the southern countries Republic of India wish to see borders open and free flow of people. The southern are afraid of being over run by poor and republic not want to see people fleeing to wealthier southern nations.
1960 - World - Chile
Lusitania
Donor
1960 – 1969
World (cont.)
World (cont.)
Chile
Chile
Chilean and Portuguese relations had always be cordial and the two countries had slowly expanded their trading after WW2 as the Portuguese built up their manufacturing while purchasing Chilean agricultural goods especially fruits and vegetables grown during the Portuguese winter. In 1952 Chile joined majority of the South America in recognizing Portuguese Federation. Portuguese – Chilean trade continued to grow but Portuguese Chilean relations never reached the levels of its two neighbors to the east (Argentina and Brazil).
In 1958 Chile had won the right to host the 1962 World Cup and interest in Chile increased as did government and business interest in Chile. Then in 1960 Chile suffered two successive massive earthquakes and local tsunamis resulting in several thousand killed and thousands injured. The Portuguese Federation like many other countries rushed aid to Chile. The Portuguese in addition to immediate aid to Chile provided it with credit and generous discounts on equipment and vehicles to assist in the rebuilding as well as sending direct aid and personnel that stayed in Chile well past the World Cup. When the Portuguese Prime Minister Dr. Antonio Rapazote visited Chile during World Cup final, he met with Chilean President Jorge Alessandri Rodriguez who thanked Federation for its assistance. The meeting would serve to foster the growing Portuguese-Chilean relationship during the remainder of the decade.
The Americans also took a keen interest in Chile and President Kennedy presented Chile with large offer of American assistance, but the American aid came with conditions which included moving Chile closer to American with their Alliance for Progress. Chile being in such dire need, President Alessandri agreed to join the American led program. Which had the aim of increasing investment and American influence in Latin America while advocation increase in development.
In November 1963, the Chilean Congress passed Law that transformed the Copper Office into the Copper Corporation of Chile (Codelco) which would eventually lead to the nationalization of the nation’s copper mines. This was opposed by US government and was viewed by some as Chilean tilting to the left. There was intense debate with Congress about nationalizing the copper mines but to do so would require a constitutional change and a referendum was planned to occur at same time as the presidential and congress elections.
As per Chilean constitution President Alessandri was not permitted to serve a second consecutive term and in the 1964 Presidential Election three candidates stood: Julio Durán on the right, representing the Democratic Front of Chile, a center-right coalition gathering the Liberal Party, the Conservative Party and the United Conservative Party which had participated in Alessandri's cabinet; Eduardo Frei Montalva for the Christian Democrat Party, and finally Salvador Allende for the FRAP left-wing coalition, unifying the Socialist Party and the Communist Party.
Eduardo Frei Montalva | Salvador Allende | Julio Durán |
Chilean 1964 Presidential Candidates
The September 1964 presidential election pitted Durán supported by American CIA running against Montalva who was supported by Portuguese Federation and other South American governments including Brazil. At the center of the divide was the Portuguese support for nationalization of Copper mines and the improvements in workers working conditions and citizens standard of living. Durán gave support to improving the benefit Chile received from mines while advocating less government intervention. Meanwhile Montalva fully supported nationalization of the mines and investing the profit from the mines into education, healthcare and infrastructure investment. He borrowed much of the left’s previous ideas. This had the effect of starving Allende of many of his ideas and robbing the left of some of its support. The CIA directly spent three million dollars to support the Julio Durán during the electoral campaign, mostly through radio and print advertising aimed at raising the "Red Scare" again.
The first round of the presidential election saw Eduardo Frei Montalva, getting 50.01%, Salvador Allende getting 40% and Julio Durán getting 9%. Frei was sworn in on 4 October 1964. Also approved in the election was the constitutional change to allow for the nationalization of the copper mines.
Frei's administration began many reforms in Chilean society. "Promoción Popular" (Social Promotion), "Reforma Agraria" (agrarian reform), "Reforma Educacional" (education reform), and "Juntas de Vecinos" (neighborhood associations) were some of his main projects. He also took measures to rationalize drug supply.
The Frei presidency did much to tackle poverty, as characterized by the growing share of wages as a proportion of GNP. By the end of the Frei presidency, the wage and salaried sector received close to 63% of GNP, compared with 42% at the end of the Alessandri presidency. This positive redistribution of wealth was encouraged by government policies, particularly in the rural sector, where wages rose by 52% in real terms. Between 1964-70, total enrollment in education increased by 59%, while around 350,000 houses were built, mostly for the poor.
Frei's administration also introduced a wealth tax and carried out a property tax reassessment in order to make the taxation system more progressive. Taxes as a percentage of GNP increased 12.8% in 1964 to 21.2% in 1970. The social reforms introduced by Frei's government led to a huge increase in public expenditure, which rose as a proportion of GNP from 35.7% in 1965 to 59.9% in 1970. Expenditures on education, agriculture, and housing rose went up considerably, with spending on housing increasing by 70% in real terms in 1965 alone.
During Frei's six years in office, an average of 62,000 housing units were constructed each year, and a total of 140,000 lots were assigned.[ Investments in primary care clinics and hospitals were also carried out, with 29 clinics and 19 hospitals built between 1965 and 1969.
In 1965, he started a presidential tour through France, the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Vatican and Portuguese Federation. During this time, he also visited countries in Latin America such as: Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, Ecuador, and Venezuela; places where he delivered important speeches on international issues.
On his return, he initiated important plans involving housing, education, reforestation, land reform, health, and the nationalization of copper. The Comisión Nacional de Cultura (National Culture Commission), the Consejería Nacional de la Promoción Popular and the Juntas de Vecinos (“Neighborhood Committees”) were also created.
One area of reform given high priority by the Frei Administration was the fostering of networks of local, self-help organizations (especially among the “unorganized” residents of the shantytowns), which was placed under a national supervisory council. As a result of the government's actions, mothers' centers, sports associations, youth clubs, residents’ committees, and parents' groups proliferated, with an estimated 20,000 units of this type in existence by 1970, according to government figures. Half of these new units were mothers' centers, with an estimated membership of 45,000 women, and the government claimed to have distributed 70,000 sewing machines to these centers. According to Frei, these measures had given “a new form of life and hope” to hundreds of thousands of people.
Improvements were also made in areas such as housing, education and medical care. Between 1964-70, around 260,000 houses were constructed (around a third by the state housing corporation CORVI) and about 200,000 housing solutions were claimed (referring to the provision of sites for self-help housing projects). The number of hospitals (and beds) doubled under the PDC, and spending on education as a proportion of public expenditure rose from one-seventh to one-fifth. Around 3,000 new schools were built throughout the country, and by 1970 95% of children in the relevant age group were covered by primary education. Expenditure on scholarships and school loans was doubled, and school enrollment was raised from 1.8 million to 2.9 million.
Expenditure on education doubled, the number of years of basic education was increased from six to eight, and a two-shift school-day was introduced that doubled the capacity of the country’s system. Frei's initiatives in education led to increased rates of enrollment in both primary and secondary education, with primary school coverage reaching 90% in the majority of rural and urban areas by 1970, while secondary school coverage reached 49% in 1970, compared with 18% at the start of the Sixties.
A new law establishing work-accident and occupational disease insurance was signed into law in January 1968, providing for compulsory coverage of all salaried employees and wage earners, including apprentices and domestic servants. In March that year, a piece of legislation creating government-sponsored health insurance for public and private salaried employees and their dependents was signed into law.
Basic health services were expanded with the training of community health workers, the building of rural health clinics, and the shifting of financial and personnel resources from hospitals to community health centers. These efforts contributed to a steep decline in infant mortality in Chile during the Sixties and Seventies.
Much attention was also given to the improvement of social and economic conditions in the countryside. Both rural unionization and agrarian reform were accelerated, with the government starting to expropriate estates in a serious way. Family allowance for farmers was doubled, the agricultural minimum wage was raised to the same level as its urban equivalent, and an agrarian reform law signed by Frei in July 1967 made all farms of more than eighty “basic” hectares liable to expropriation. The Frei Administration had thus made a major start to land reform.
The agrarian reform carried out by the Frei Government organized the reformed sector according to a temporary system established in the law, whereby the expropriated estates became asentamientos. This was a legal form in which the farm operated as a joint enterprise between the state and the peasants who had lived in the former latifundia (extensive agricultural estates), with the state providing the credits, land, and technical assistance, and the peasants their labor. After an indeterminate period, the land would be made available for subdivision into small private plots, if the peasants wished. According to one study, the percentage of the population living below the poverty line steadily fell; from 39% in 1965 to 13% in 1970.
The nationalization of the copper mines provided to be the most contentious of Frei government especially with the United states. In 1965 legislation was passed by congress in which all coper mines in Chile were nationalized and setout “fair” compensation to the international corporations. The most contentious part dealt with review of copper prices and taxes paid to Chile in comparison to other jurisdictions. In the subsequent report it was found that the multinational companies had short changed Chile by an average of 12% and that the total “stolen” from Chile was greater than the value of the mines thus negating Chile from having to compensate the mining companies. To make matters worse Chile joined, Portuguese Federation, Katanga and Argentina in forming the Copper Consortium that raised copper prices by 25%. The four countries at the time accounted for over 50% of all copper production in world and without alternative sources the world was forced to pay the new copper prices. The American administration of President Johnson and subsequent President Hubert Horatio Humphrey were angry and threaten Chile with sanctions.
In 1968 the situation in Peru and Bolivia shocked Chile; the fall of Lima to communist rebels and the overthrow of Bolivia by communist brought possibility of war and communist insurrection to Chile. Thousands of Peruvians and Bolivians fled their country and Frei government was forced to setup three refugee camps in Northern Chile. Chilean military presence in Northern Chile was increased substantially. The biggest shock though came when Communist Government in Bolivia demanded that Chile return all “illegally occupied” Bolivian territory. Even going as far to threaten war against its neighbors if they did not return the stolen territory.
Territory that Bolivia demanded returned from its neighbors in 1968.
Chile joined with Argentina and Brazil alongside both Paraguay and Uruguay in opposing the Bolivian government and when Frei signed the anti-communist alliance with Argentina and Brazil and committing to providing troops to not only defend against Bolivian aggression against Paraguy but also “liberation” of Bolivia. News of Chile attacking Bolivia resulted in the communists and other left-wing parties in Chile protesting and holding increasingly violent demonstrations. In 1969 the Chilean communist party leader Luis Alberto Corvalán Lepe along with several hundred communist party members were arrested. This led to several attacks by communist members against the government. At the Santiago May day protest 14 people were killed and 258 injured while over 1,000 were arrested including Frei’s Presidential opponent Salvador Guillermo Allende. As 1969 came to a close and border clashes between Chile and Bolivia intensified the situation in Santiago also heated up as Chilean congress debating outlawing the Communist party and other left wing ‘radical” parties supporting or participating in violent demonstrations and attacks against the government.
Sorry for the confusion, with those expecting Uruguay & Paraguay but Chile is up first. The Presidency of President Frei actually was instrumental in advancing the rights and standard of living of majority of Chileans and there was only slight improvements in the development of Chile and the progress it made under President Frei compared to iOTL. The major difference is that the nationalization of the copper mines happened under President Frei as opposed to under President Allende in the early 1970s before he was deposed. Here Chile being influenced with what had and was happening in Brazil and Argentina decides that it wanted a better deal from the international mining companies and when they refused the country decided to go the route of Nationalization. This nationalization and subsequent price increase is greatly opposed by western world and will of course spur greater prospecting and development of copper elsewhere but the immediate result was a 25% increase in price and corresponding increase in state revenue that was plowed back into development of the country. Even the conservatives were happy with the increased business development. Another major change that happened was the appearance of new brands of appliances, motorcycles, vehicles and construction machinery as Portuguese companies began displacing American domination.
All of these political changes could of resulted in similar events that deposed President Allende were it not the the communist threat in Peru and especially in Bolivia that both preoccupied the Chilean military and the beleaguered American government. With Chile aligning itself with both Argentina and Brazil to fight the communists and with Bolivia acting like the antagonist the Americans needing all the support and friends against the communist threat they decide a neutral/friendly Chile is better than another enemy and decide to forget the nationalization thing. FYI iOTL after President Allende was deposed the military government did not reverse the nationalization since it benefitted Chile greatly.
The last point is the political situation of the left in Chile with them opposing military alliance with rightwing Argentina and Brazil and the 'war' with communist Bolivia. But this is a ideological that inevitable weakens and results in communist / left loosing much support with Chileans. The fact that Bolivia is demanding Chile return territory back to Bolivia is opposed by majority of Chileans due to result of national loss of territory. With continued violence and majority of socialist and communist leaders arrested the 1970 election will definitely be different especially if the majority of left wing parties get outlawed. Questions/ Comments?
Return on April 4 as we finish the world section and we discuss the Uruguay & Paraguay.
So instead of Paragua it is Bolivia who is deafeated and split up by it's neighbors unlike OTL in this TL, interesting even if I would love a TL were Bolivia keeps it's coastline ^^