A logical Neville Chamberlain

Several threads such as https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=86523 look at building a better British fleet but the most serious danger facing Britain in the thirties was, in hindsight, the collapse of France. What if Britain had rearmed as France desired i.e. fighter aircraft and equipment for the BEF, especially tanks, being priorities, and with both bombers and ships being produced much more slowly. It would not have been too difficult to have five to six divisions with 300-400 tanks each with an expanded BEF (15 to 20 divisions) in 1940.

The most obvious POD is the formation in about 1935 of an alliance of Conservative politicians who were anti-German (or at least anti-Hitler), pro-French and who wanted to limit our list of potential enemies to Germany, which would have reduced the need for battleships and aircraft carriers. Chamberlain fits the last criteria, which why I chose him as the group's leader. He had no confidence in the USA and thus opposed any confrontation with Japan (unfortunately for my POD, none of Chamberlain, Simon or Hore-Belisha would actually have favoured cutting tariffs). However, I am simply asserting that the group had enough influence to offer Japan recognition of Manchukuo and low tariff access to India etc. Similarly, the group opposed any serious criticism of Italy over Abyssinia.

One problem is that such policies make everything too easy as Britain, France and Belgium crush Hitler in 1936. However, assuming that didn't happen, what would?
 
Well, let's answer 1936 not with a full scale mobilization but with a cold-war situation. The UK recognizes that Germany is belligerent and moves to quickly rearm as well. Here, however, the Allies can do a few other interesting steps. They might be able to prevail upon Belgium to remain a member of the Allies, on the grounds that France needs the Belgian defensive lines to defend itself in the East--perhaps they can simply bribe Belgium into doing this.

So I would propose that Chamberlain's foreign policy creates a France/Belgium/Czechloslovkia/Romania/Poland alliance to contain Germany. Events in Austria probably force Europe into a military standoff--Austria is not a part of the UK's alliance, so no direct military response can be taken. That said, Europe sees the light of what Germany is interested in doing--and former Austrian Chancellor Kurt Schussnigg is able to give them those answers.

Germany is now surrounded by a furiously mobilizing Europe. The SdP in Czechloslovkia and similar organizations in Poland are banned and publicly tried for their offenses, meanwhile, Germany is going bankrupt. Since Hitler is insane enough to go for Czechoslovakia despite its guarantees OTL, he would probably go for it here as well. Except that President Benes gives him the finger. Hitler actives Fall Grun, and all hell breaks loose as Germany is suddenly hit on three fronts--Poland/Romania and Belgium/France.

This is not 1936, but in 1938 you still have a German stomping. And good riddance.
 
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