A List of PODs on the Russian Revolution of 1917

Hnau

Banned
I already posted one of the more interesting PODs: Victor Chernov becomes Minister of Foreign Relations instead of the Minister of Agriculture, leading to the weakening of the Provisional Government, an earlier revolt of the rightists, but also a Treaty of Brest-Litovsk in July 1917 rather than March 1918, which would give Russian control to Estonia, western Latvia, and the Ukraine.

How about another one:

- In Kharkov, there was extreme resentment against Kornilov for restoring the death penalty. The Left SRs there joined with the Bolsheviks and the left-wing Mensheviks to set up a "revolutionary staff" there that simply took over the military functions of the Provisional Government. A few of the Left SRs decided not to institute a full-fledged soviet regime. Had they decided to, the October Revolution could have began at the end of August in the Ukraine.

What are your other PODs that could have happened during the Russian Revolution. It was a crazy time, a time of a thousand choices that made a difference, where one extra voice or one less action could have changed everything. List them here.
 
Ace of Spies

I have been intrigued by the possibility of the Lockhart Plot actually succeeding in early Sept 1918 with Sidney Reilly becoming the de facto dictator of Russia.
 
I have a thing for a train crash killing of Lenin and the whole sealed wagon somewhere in Sweden. Or a stabbing of Lenin at PUB where he brought a coat.
 
I find the idea of the Provisional Government deciding to hold elections to a Constituent Assembly sometime in the spring or summer of 1917 (before the Kornilovshchina), instead of repeatedly delaying them and continually weakening their own base of popular support, very intriguing.
 

Hnau

Banned
I would agree, but for some reason the Provisional Government wasn't decisive enough to do that... hmm... I wonder if the Assembly's results in the Summer of 1917 would be similiar to the OTL Assembly in October. The Bolsheviks might have less power... in any case the SRs would win, and without the schism of the Left SRs.
 

Hnau

Banned
I've been doing some research on the Lockhart Plot and Sidney Reilly. I have no doubt that if Fanya Kaplan hadn't tried to assassinate Lenin, it would have worked. Lenin would have been killed, along with some of his more close associates (Sverdlov, maybe?). The coup would put a junta of generals in control of the country: the head of the Latvian Rifleman, General Ioakim Vatsetis, would hold a higher-up spot. Also, Abram R. Gotz, former head of the Socialist-Revolutionary Party, a right-centrist that favored returning to the war and was a big name, would also probably be included. I can see the generals making a big deal about Russia 'being returned to a liberal, democratic, parliamentary republic'. Certainly some of the more democratic White generals would request or be requested to join the new government right away, while the monarchists would be shunned. Meanwhile they would declare resumed "defensive" hostilities against Germany, an end to the war shortly, and the Allies would announce their support of the regime. The junta would be mostly mid-level generals, with the more ideological and loyal personalities being executed in a sort of 'White and Red Terror'. Ultimately, I expect Russia to be co-opted by the Whites and the centrists, despite a lot of backlash from the people and the Bolsheviks (maybe even a counter-coup by Trotsky if he gets away at first), and even be invited to the Paris Peace Conference. No doubt Poland would only extend to the Curzon Line (maybe some referendums could be made for additional land), and there would probably be an independent Ukraine, an independent Finland and Baltic states. Oh, and Transcaucasia as well. As for Central Asia... I think they'll be able to keep it.

The Bolsheviks will be livid. A lot of trouble from them. The Civil War won't stop there, no way.
 
I would agree, but for some reason the Provisional Government wasn't decisive enough to do that... hmm... I wonder if the Assembly's results in the Summer of 1917 would be similiar to the OTL Assembly in October. The Bolsheviks might have less power... in any case the SRs would win, and without the schism of the Left SRs.
The Kadets would probably do considerably better, too, not having been subjected to months of Bolshevik propaganda and harassment. Hmm...this could develop into a quite interesting timeline. I remember thinking a while ago about a scenario in which Russian democracy manages to establish itself on fairly solid foundations, the Kadets join with the remnants of the right-wing parties into a "Progressive-Constitutional Union," and the SRs begin to be challenged in rural areas by a non-socialist Agrarian Labour Party.

As for the Lockhart Plot, I can't say I know much about it. Were any of the White generals actually willing to support a parliamentary democracy?
 
I have a thing for a train crash killing of Lenin and the whole sealed wagon somewhere in Sweden. Or a stabbing of Lenin at PUB where he brought a coat.

I read a story about Lenin getting shot as he gets off the train (Kerensky becomes the head of happy sunshine-and-lollipops democratic Russia; a bit unlikely, IMHO) but the name of the shooter (Lev Harveivich Oswalt) was pure awesome. :cool:
 

Thande

Donor
I read a story about Lenin getting shot as he gets off the train (Kerensky becomes the head of happy sunshine-and-lollipops democratic Russia; a bit unlikely, IMHO) but the name of the shooter (Lev Harveivich Oswalt) was pure awesome. :cool:
That's so bad it's good :D

I always think Kerenksyite republican Russia is one of the most interesting and underdone AH possibilities - without a Red Scare, would fascism still be successful in the 1930s? Would communism remain more idealistic and internationalist? At what rate would Russia modernise and industrialise?
 

Hnau

Banned
I've been reading a few books by Oliver H. Radkey about the Socialist-Revolutionary Party before, during, and after the revolution. Kerensky is an AH.com trope and in reality he couldn't have done it. He basically hijacked the SR Party because it was the most popular, and even in his first few months, the higher echelon of the party intelligentsia didn't trust him. Soon they broke with him entirely over the Kerensky Offensive. But even without the K.O. (which was entirely against Kerensky himself... he supported the war, by God, and he was going to fight it for the Allies as long as he was in control) the break with Kerensky is inevitable. I mean, consider that in the 1917 Congress of the SR Party, he wasn't voted in as a representative in any fashion, and there were thirty reps!

Kerensky was a man that saw Russia as a country without parties. He viewed the February Revolution as proof that the Russian people were united in a grassroots movement and didn't believe in political parties because after the Revolution, Kerensky thought that society had progressed passed them. He wanted to concede something to everyone, which is way he didn't make a move against the Petrograd Soviet, nor did he upset the Allies. He was overly idealistic, with his 'most democratic army in the world' that proved democracy doesn't have a place in the military.

Even ignoring all these faults, if Alexander Kerensky participated in presidential elections, he wouldn't win. His own party didn't want him, the people didn't want him. Kerensky was, unfortunately, one of those personalities in history you just can't trust to do something right without a personality change, like Hitler (in a lot of ways not like Hitler, but still).

and the SRs begin to be challenged in rural areas by a non-socialist Agrarian Labour Party.

That could happen. Professor Radkey, perhaps the most informed man on the SRs, says that if the SR Party had stuck around, they would have likely lost their socialist element in favor of a small land-owner's democratic party. But I think it would take some time... consider that the Socialist-Revolutionaries didn't split until the October Revolution with the departure of the Left-SRs, and were even divided between the centre left and the far right in the party passed this point. I'd say a whole different party could only come about a few years after the revolutionary episode.
 
I've been doing some research on the Lockhart Plot and Sidney Reilly. I have no doubt that if Fanya Kaplan hadn't tried to assassinate Lenin, it would have worked. Lenin would have been killed, along with some of his more close associates (Sverdlov, maybe?). The coup would put a junta of generals in control of the country: the head of the Latvian Rifleman, General Ioakim Vatsetis, would hold a higher-up spot. Also, Abram R. Gotz, former head of the Socialist-Revolutionary Party, a right-centrist that favored returning to the war and was a big name, would also probably be included. I can see the generals making a big deal about Russia 'being returned to a liberal, democratic, parliamentary republic'. Certainly some of the more democratic White generals would request or be requested to join the new government right away, while the monarchists would be shunned. Meanwhile they would declare resumed "defensive" hostilities against Germany, an end to the war shortly, and the Allies would announce their support of the regime. The junta would be mostly mid-level generals, with the more ideological and loyal personalities being executed in a sort of 'White and Red Terror'. Ultimately, I expect Russia to be co-opted by the Whites and the centrists, despite a lot of backlash from the people and the Bolsheviks (maybe even a counter-coup by Trotsky if he gets away at first), and even be invited to the Paris Peace Conference. No doubt Poland would only extend to the Curzon Line (maybe some referendums could be made for additional land), and there would probably be an independent Ukraine, an independent Finland and Baltic states. Oh, and Transcaucasia as well. As for Central Asia... I think they'll be able to keep it.

The Bolsheviks will be livid. A lot of trouble from them. The Civil War won't stop there, no way.

What would you see as Reilly's role in this long term?
 

Hnau

Banned
Reilly would definitely be coordinating the coup, but the fact is that his skill-set is in espionage... I bet the British will keep him on as "Their Man in the Kremlin" and Reilly will no doubt keep some of his prestige as leader of the coup. But it would be too risky for him to stay there long, eventually the Russian government will realize he's a spy. For the first half of the 1920s, he could play power games in the Kremlin, making Russia play to the tune of the British through manipulation. In fact, that might even result in the loss of the Central Asian territories. The British would want new, smaller states to intervene in and apply pressue on Afghanistan. The problem is the New Government's martial stand... I don't think they'd take it lightly. Certainly if there are some nationalist movements in Central Asia, Reilly would do his best to try and get the Junta* to sympathize with them.

And now I'm looking through Russian Central Asian history, and whadyaknow, the Turkmenis under the guise of the independent state Transcaspia held out the longest of all the anti-Bolshevik states, until the early 1920s, and were allied to the British until 1919! So, Transcaspia becomes an independent nation, no doubt Reilly could use his skills in intrigue to pull that off.

How about the Emirate of Bukhara? The Young Bukharans were ready for a revolution of their own, and they could go to the British or the Russians for help. Reilly might be able to manipulate its independence, but this is harder to say. It was so ripe for the taking... some of the generals would no doubt feel it would dishonor the country. Perhaps Reilly could support the left-SRs and democratic-nationalists who wanted to give away the border territories: an election in mid-1919? That would be difficult: the generals would want to keep the Terror going as long as possible before an election, they knew they would be voted out of power, the least they could do is get rid of the extremists. Perhaps the Allies force the Russians to hold democratic elections before they are accepted to the Paris Peace Conference? I can see that.

The Allies will need to concede some territorial concessions to the Russian government if they are to become their puppet... perhaps some priority among the Straits Authority or even a Free City of Istanbul to be open to Russian immigration and a free trade pact. Hmm. Certainly they could re-direct Russia's military-expansionist motive into Turkey, against a common enemy, instead of against secessionist movements which the Allies supported.

In any case, by 1925 Reilly needs to get out there or compromise the whole regime. It would be easier as well: after the Constituent Assembly, his alias will hold significantly less influence.
 
That could happen. Professor Radkey, perhaps the most informed man on the SRs, says that if the SR Party had stuck around, they would have likely lost their socialist element in favor of a small land-owner's democratic party. But I think it would take some time... consider that the Socialist-Revolutionaries didn't split until the October Revolution with the departure of the Left-SRs, and were even divided between the centre left and the far right in the party passed this point. I'd say a whole different party could only come about a few years after the revolutionary episode.
I'd agree - the SRs would have to do the significant work of creating a small land-owning peasant class before any fundamental change in the party's ideology. But if they were reasonably successful, after perhaps a decade, I could see them evolving into a center-left agrarian party - similar to BANU in Bulgaria, for instance.
 
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