A limited naval war between Iran and Saudi Arabia in 2012. Who wins?

Who wins?

  • Iran

    Votes: 6 31.6%
  • Saudi Arabia

    Votes: 7 36.8%
  • Stalemate

    Votes: 6 31.6%

  • Total voters
    19
Random scenario:

In January 2012 Saudi Arabia has declared war on Iran, but both are prevented by other powers from waging total war or even attacking the cities with planes. Instead the war is mainly a series of naval battles between the Iranians and the Saudi Arabians in the Persian Gulf. Iran has had about eight months to prepare, Saudi Arabia has had about a month. Saudi Arabia is getting some financial support from Washington, Iran the equivalent but from Moscow.

Who is more likely to win?
 
Last edited:

nbcman

Donor
The Saudis as there is 100% chance for the US and others to get involved in a Persian Gulf conflict that jeopardizes the flow of oil. The US 5th Fleet is based in the Persian Gulf for just such an emergency. If you want to argue that everyone else stays out, that would require mind control ==> ASB forum.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
On the assumption that there's some kind of behind-the-scenes saber rattling - and that both backers will go nuclear if another power steps in (which is the only way to keep to OP terms and is itself silly), this comes down to who has the better navy.


Frankly you could simply ask that question.




...now, what makes this especially confusing is that Iran has two navies. One is their conventional navy, stuffed with subs and with six frigates and three corvettes.
The other is the army-navy, which has lots of small fast attack craft.


Frankly it does look like it comes down to training. If the Saudis don't have good ASW they're in trouble, for example, but the Saudis also have more modern anti-ship missiles.
 

Andre27

Banned
How do you keep the engagement from spiraling out of control?
How do you stop the active involvement of e.g. US naval assets?
What are your conditions for a "win"?

Overall IF it was a one on one engagement, despite the Royal Saudi Navy being more modernly equipped, the shear numbers would give Iran the advantage.

One more thing to consider, Iran has in effect two navies:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_ships_of_the_Islamic_Republic_of_Iran_Navy
and
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Navy_of_the_Army_of_the_Guardians_of_the_Islamic_Revolution

Royal Saudi Navy
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Saudi_Navy

Even if SA would sink 50% of Iran's surface fleet, the treat of submarines would completely stop the tankers and the engagement would be a de facto Iranian victory.
 

shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
If it's a limited series of skirmishes, then I can see Iran winning. Even if we have days long Navel Fights, Iran has the edge of just being a good Navy, although are faced with highly advanced tech. A large issue would be the time- a quick and decisive couple of battles would see the war likely end quickly with a decisive Iranian victory. However, a drawn out slog would do nothing but draw in new players.

TBH, I can't see Iran and Saudi Arabia going to full standoff; at this point, both are fighting Proxy conflicts against each other simply due to the high risk of what could happen if such a think breaks out. It'd be more likely that a Saudi backed UAE fights Iran.
 
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