A Light in the East: A Korean TL

In terms of the actual conflicts that occurred IOTL during the time period in question, the Book of Jin states that Goguryeo conquered the Yan Commandery in 403/4, while the Gwanggaeto Stele states that 6 fortresses in Yan territory were conquered in 407, and a tomb mural constructed by Goguryeo states that the state established a governor in Youzhou, who died in 408. These details as a whole suggest that Goguryeo temporarily managed to seize territory roughly corresponding to what is now Hebei and Beijing, both of which are located west of the pass that you mentioned, so the fortification itself was probably not particularly efficient as a whole, if it existed during that time.

This is quite fanciful, but I should point out that most scholarship doesn't adhere to the view that Koguryo held Beijing (or Youzhou, but I think Beijing proper had a separate name and Youzhou was the metro area). This is never stated in any source, Korean or Chinese, so it should probably be dismissed.
 
This is quite fanciful, but I should point out that most scholarship doesn't adhere to the view that Koguryo held Beijing (or Youzhou, but I think Beijing proper had a separate name and Youzhou was the metro area). This is never stated in any source, Korean or Chinese, so it should probably be dismissed.

Within China, Yan Commandery was located near what is now Beijing, and Youzhou was roughly composed of the area surrounding it. However, the general consensus is that the Yan Commandery that Goguryeo took over refers to the area around the Daling River, which is currently located around the western border of Liaoning, between the Liao and Luan Rivers. Regarding the later incident, scholars disagree over whether the incident in 407 mentioned in the Gwanggaeto Stele refers to a conflict with Later Yan or Baekje. However, Murong Xi had recently attacked from 405-6, while a Baekje-Wa alliance had last invaded in 404, not to mention that 58 of the fortresses north of Wirye had already been taken over by Goguryeo, and no conflicts between Goguryeo and Baekje around 405-11 are mentioned in the Samguk Sagi. As a result, it's likely that Gwanggaeto attacked when the Later Yan was falling apart in 407, and based on the location of the Yan Commandery that I provided earlier, the regions conquered were most likely west of Linyu Pass. However, Goguryeo was eventually forced to withdraw after the Northern Yan was established, and the temporary governor died in 408.
 
Within China, Yan Commandery was located near what is now Beijing, and Youzhou was roughly composed of the area surrounding it. However, the general consensus is that the Yan Commandery that Goguryeo took over refers to the area around the Daling River, which is currently located around the western border of Liaoning, between the Liao and Luan Rivers. Regarding the later incident, scholars disagree over whether the incident in 407 mentioned in the Gwanggaeto Stele refers to a conflict with Later Yan or Baekje. However, Murong Xi had recently attacked from 405-6, while a Baekje-Wa alliance had last invaded in 404, not to mention that 58 of the fortresses north of Wirye had already been taken over by Goguryeo, and no conflicts between Goguryeo and Baekje around 405-11 are mentioned in the Samguk Sagi. As a result, it's likely that Gwanggaeto attacked when the Later Yan was falling apart in 407, and based on the location of the Yan Commandery that I provided earlier, the regions conquered were most likely west of Linyu Pass. However, Goguryeo was eventually forced to withdraw after the Northern Yan was established, and the temporary governor died in 408.
Perhaps I'm seeming stubborn, but none of this particularly convinces me. If Kwanggaeto reached and took a major city like Youzhou, why doesn't he mention it? Why don't Chinese sources mention it (after all, they generally have no qualms about documenting Chinese defeats) or Korean sources discuss it (presumably, they would have fewer misgivings about concealing such a victory)? Now, from a bit of Internet research, I've uncovered some stuff related to what you're saying. I'm not in a particularly diligent mood, so I might make a few mistakes. It appears that Wontack Hong (who I don't particularly trust, but that's another issue) reports:
According to the Jinshu, the king of Later Yan (Murong Sheng, r.398-401) invaded Liaodong and took away five thousand households to “Liaoxi” in 400. According to the Samguk-sagi (corroborated by the Zizhi Tongjian), the Koguryeo army invaded an area north-east of Longcheng in 402, and the king of Later Yan (Murong Xi, r.401-7) “invaded Liaodong” (but failed) in 405. According to the Jinshu, the Koguryeo army had invaded the Yan Commandery (寇燕郡) sometime before 405. The Deuk-heung-ri Tomb of a Koguryeo dignitary named Zhen (鎭 331-408) contains the record that he held the position of Governor of Youzhou. The Samguk-sagi records armed conflicts between Koguryeo and Later Yan in 404 and 406. The Jinshu also records that Murong Xi attacked Koguryeo sometime after 405.
Leaving aside the issue of his scare quotes around Liaoxi, this presents some issues in itself. I'm not sure about the 405 versus 407 discrepancy, but I don't think it's major. First, I note even Hong isn't asserting that Kwanggaeto conquered Yan Prefecture, since the word kou is not necessarily one of conquest. I then searched on Wikisource for the phrase "invaded the Yan Commandery" (寇燕郡) and got this:
會高句驪寇燕郡, 殺略百餘人. 熙伐高句驪, 以苻氏從, 為沖車地道以攻遼東. 熙曰: "待剗平寇城, 朕當與後乘輦而入, 不聽將士先登." 於是城內嚴備, 攻之不能下. 會大雨雪, 士卒多死, 乃引歸.
Now, at this, I could have just thrown up my hands and decided not to hit my Chinese-English dictionaries, but I decided to try my hand anyways. Of course, I have a feeling that I might be using an anachronistic translation, so anybody should feel free to point out my mistakes.
Regarding Koguryo, it attacked Yan Commandery and killed and plundered more than one hundred people. [Murong] Xi attacked Koguryo. In order that Lady Fu could join [or "go through" but this makes little sense], he rushed chariots [literally, I assume this means cavalry] on the highway to attack Liaodong. Xi stated "Delay the leveling of the walls. I think it is appropriate, with the one behind me [Lady Fu?], to ride the imperial carriage and enter. Don't allow troops to ascend [the walls] before me." (Might also be "I intend to level the city ... Don't follow the generals' earlier records." This would make less sense.] Thus, those inside the city were strictly prepared. The attackers were unable to descend [literally "go down"]. There was heavy rain and snow, and many soldiers died, upon which Xi pulled back and retreated.
Aside from providing me with a slight headache, this passage also provides evidence that this invasion by Koguryo was probably not a major affair. It merits little treatment if it involved a conquest of an entire prefecture, given how the text sends comparatively much more time on an anecdote regarding Murong Xi and his consort. Remember, a prefecture was larger and more valuable than a commandery, which Yan would be. Regarding the governor of Youzhou? Coincidentally, scroll 124 of the Book of Jin also mentions one later:
盡殺寶諸子. 大城肥如及宿軍, 以仇尼倪為鎮東大將軍, 營州刺史, 鎮宿軍, 上庸公懿為鎮西將軍, 幽州刺史, 鎮令支: 尚書劉木為鎮南大將軍, 冀州刺史, 鎮肥如.
At which point I stopped bothering to translate specifically, except for the part in bold, which states "Murong Yi, Duke of Shangyong, became General Pacifying the West, Governor of Youzhou, Controller of Lingzhi." Given the fact that Murong Xi seems to be at Dacheng Mountain, and is giving orders for someone to retain Lingzhi (both sites are east of Youzhou), and was just attacking the city of Liaodong, it really seems hard to imagine that Koguryo actually conquered a major city which the Later Yan then retook or reconquered. I'm not opposed to reading between the lines, but going from "Koguryo killed over a hundred people" to "Koguryo conquered Youzhou but retreated or was defeated and forced all the way back to Liaodong" is a very shaky interpretation. At the very most, I could accept a Koguryo attack on Hebei and the Beijing area. However, given Hong's description of fighting around Liaodong, it makes more sense that Yan and Koguryo were fighting along the Liao River, and perhaps the authors of the Book of Jin, being in Southern China, used the term "Yan Commandery" as a vague term for the area. The historical evidence is just absent for what you are calling a conquest.

On the other hand, let's look at the claim that the King of Koguryo appointed this temporary governor (I found a reference online stating his identity, because the research seems thin) for Youzhou. This doesn't necessarily mean that Koguryo did control Youzhou. First of all, throughout history, it is a known fact that people lie. Yes, people also lie on their tombs as well. It's possible that he wasn't a prefect of Youzhou. However, this would be a lazy way out. There are other possibilities: he was appointed prefect/governor by somebody in the Yan, but fled to Koguryo, where he was given a nice tomb, and somebody in Koguryo decided to be boastful by saying he was appointed by the King of Koguryo. Less likely, he was captured. Or, perhaps Kwanggaeto did appoint a person, Xianbei or otherwise, to serve as prefect, but the forces of Koguryo never took Youzhou, so the title became moot. Regardless of the scenario, it seems insufficient to take a few lines on a tomb, make a mountain of a claim from a molehill of evidence.

I'm not going to go out of my way to oppose the claim that Koguryo occupied or conquered small parts of Hebei, even west of what is now Shanhai Pass, but I will oppose any claim that Koguryo conquered what is now Beijing.

EDIT: I also understand that this whole post isn't really related too much to your timeline, because in your timeline, you have Koguryo conquer Youzhou, and I have no objection to that, with writer's liberty being essential. I'm just pointing out that from a historical perspective, this doesn't seem to be what happened. If only a hundred people are killed, it doesn't seem like Kwanggaeto was putting in substantial effort into conquering the Youzhou region.
 
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I'm not going to respond thoroughly in detail as I usually do, as I need to focus on other things, but I'll respond briefly.

Perhaps I'm seeming stubborn, but none of this particularly convinces me . . . The historical evidence is just absent for what you are calling a conquest.

The problem is that although numerous Chinese sources discussed Goguryeo, only the Book of Jin and the Zizhi Tongjian, along with the Samguk Yusa and the Gwanggaeto Stele, describe the situation around 391-411. Considering that other Chinese sources go directly from the 3rd/middle 4th to late 5th/6th centuries, skipping the details in between, it's extremely likely that the vast majority of the details regarding Gwanggaeto were lost during and after the war between the Sui/Tang and Goguryeo.

Anyway, the limited evidence suggests that the border between the (Former/Later) Yan and Goguryeo was fluid from around 339-407. The Samguk Sagi, for example, records three conflicts between Goguryeo and the Former Yan, two between Goguryeo and the Later Yan before 391, and five during Gwanggaeto's reign. Goguryeo did not gain the offensive until 385, as it was struggling to recover from the attacks on Hwando and Pyongyang, but after that date, with an exception in 399/400, the Yan continued to lose fortresses, giving up Liaodong, Xuantu, and Sujun, along with the six mentioned in the Gwanggaeto Stele, and other regions that have not been mentioned, such as the Yan Commandery mentioned in the Book of Jin. These details suggest that although Goguryeo managed to take the Liaodong Peninsula and expand into some regions west of it, there is no conclusive evidence that Goguryeo held what is now Beijing until around 407, while the eastern portions of Hebei were probably buffer zones.

On the other hand, let's look at the claim that the King of Koguryo appointed this temporary governor (I found a reference online stating his identity, because the research seems thin) for Youzhou. This doesn't necessarily mean that Koguryo did control Youzhou. First of all, throughout history, it is a known fact that people lie. Yes, people also lie on their tombs as well. It's possible that he wasn't a prefect of Youzhou. However, this would be a lazy way out. There are other possibilities: he was appointed prefect/governor by somebody in the Yan, but fled to Koguryo, where he was given a nice tomb, and somebody in Koguryo decided to be boastful by saying he was appointed by the King of Koguryo. Less likely, he was captured. Or, perhaps Kwanggaeto did appoint a person, Xianbei or otherwise, to serve as prefect, but the forces of Koguryo never took Youzhou, so the title became moot. Regardless of the scenario, it seems insufficient to take a few lines on a tomb, make a mountain of a claim from a molehill of evidence.

I'm not going to go out of my way to oppose the claim that Koguryo occupied or conquered small parts of Hebei, even west of what is now Shanhai Pass, but I will oppose any claim that Koguryo conquered what is now Beijing.

Based on the evidence presented above, I would assume that Goguryeo managed to seize most of the territory east of Linyu by around 403-5, and temporarily expanded into what is now Hebei and Beijing around 407-8 during the chaotic transition between the Later and Northern Yan, although control was probably tenuous, as it was forced to retreat by 408. It remains uncertain exactly which regions Goguryeo managed to conquer around 403-8, but the extremes were probably near the Liao River and Beijing.

Later, Jangsu ordered generals to capture Helong (modern-day Chaoyang, Liaoning) in 436, in which they succeeded, but this is technically not relevant to this discussion.

EDIT: I also understand that this whole post isn't really related too much to your timeline, because in your timeline, you have Koguryo conquer Youzhou, and I have no objection to that, with writer's liberty being essential. I'm just pointing out that from a historical perspective, this doesn't seem to be what happened. If only a hundred people are killed, it doesn't seem like Kwanggaeto was putting in substantial effort into conquering the Youzhou region.

I usually resort to artistic license when there are no other options available, but for the most part, I try to base the details on roughly corresponding details IOTL as best as possible. In this case, given the evidence through limited sources, I would assume that if Gwanggaeto had access to much more manpower after capturing Wirye Fortress and forced the southern states to send troops, there might have been an impetus to head further west and hold onto the newly captured territories for a longer period of time.
 
I'm not going to respond thoroughly in detail as I usually do, as I need to focus on other things, but I'll respond briefly.



The problem is that although numerous Chinese sources discussed Goguryeo, only the Book of Jin and the Zizhi Tongjian, along with the Samguk Yusa and the Gwanggaeto Stele, describe the situation around 391-411. Considering that other Chinese sources go directly from the 3rd/middle 4th to late 5th/6th centuries, skipping the details in between, it's extremely likely that the vast majority of the details regarding Gwanggaeto were lost during and after the war between the Sui/Tang and Goguryeo.

Anyway, the limited evidence suggests that the border between the (Former/Later) Yan and Goguryeo was fluid from around 339-407. The Samguk Sagi, for example, records three conflicts between Goguryeo and the Former Yan, two between Goguryeo and the Later Yan before 391, and five during Gwanggaeto's reign. Goguryeo did not gain the offensive until 385, as it was struggling to recover from the attacks on Hwando and Pyongyang, but after that date, with an exception in 399/400, the Yan continued to lose fortresses, giving up Liaodong, Xuantu, and Sujun, along with the six mentioned in the Gwanggaeto Stele, and other regions that have not been mentioned, such as the Yan Commandery mentioned in the Book of Jin. These details suggest that although Goguryeo managed to take the Liaodong Peninsula and expand into some regions west of it, there is no conclusive evidence that Goguryeo held what is now Beijing until around 407, while the eastern portions of Hebei were probably buffer zones.



Based on the evidence presented above, I would assume that Goguryeo managed to seize most of the territory east of Linyu by around 403-5, and temporarily expanded into what is now Hebei and Beijing around 407-8 during the chaotic transition between the Later and Northern Yan, although control was probably tenuous, as it was forced to retreat by 408. It remains uncertain exactly which regions Goguryeo managed to conquer around 403-8, but the extremes were probably near the Liao River and Beijing.

Later, Jangsu ordered generals to capture Helong (modern-day Chaoyang, Liaoning) in 436, in which they succeeded, but this is technically not relevant to this discussion.



I usually resort to artistic license when there are no other options available, but for the most part, I try to base the details on roughly corresponding details IOTL as best as possible. In this case, given the evidence through limited sources, I would assume that if Gwanggaeto had access to much more manpower after capturing Wirye Fortress and forced the southern states to send troops, there might have been an impetus to head further west and hold onto the newly captured territories for a longer period of time.

If you don't want to add details and discuss in depth, I guess that's fine, but you have zero evidence. Koguryo did not conquer Yan Commandery: that's not what the textual, Korean or Chinese, evidence says. There were details that were lost over time: that's true for all historical sources and events, but what is left, like the Book of Jin is plenty of evidence, sufficient to establish what territory that the Yan and Koguryo had, and full of plenty of other details as well. You have evidence that Koguryo conquered six castles: I guess that could be true. But, out of the three named forts still left, the fortresses mentioned, "沙溝城, 婁城, 還住城" don't correspond to Chinese places, so you have no evidence that Koguryo captured Chinese territory in the Dingwei year (at first glance, it seems more likely to be a follow-up attack on Paekche or Silla if it's not an outright fabrication). You have no evidence that the man appointed to be temporary governor of Youzhou actually had any sort of Koguryo authority over his theoretical domain.

There is thus no conclusive evidence for Koguryo holding Youzhou or Beijing before 407, and no conclusive evidence for Koguryo holding Youzhou after 407. Implying anything else would be akin to filling in historical gaps with imagination. (Hebei buffer regions are still possible, though I would assert, as from the quoted text earlier, that the Yan had the upper hand, so I'm leaning toward a division at the Liao).
 
If you don't want to add details and discuss in depth, I guess that's fine, but you have zero evidence. Koguryo did not conquer Yan Commandery: that's not what the textual, Korean or Chinese, evidence says. There were details that were lost over time: that's true for all historical sources and events, but what is left, like the Book of Jin is plenty of evidence, sufficient to establish what territory that the Yan and Koguryo had, and full of plenty of other details as well. You have evidence that Koguryo conquered six castles: I guess that could be true. But, out of the three named forts still left, the fortresses mentioned, "沙溝城, 婁城, 還住城" don't correspond to Chinese places, so you have no evidence that Koguryo captured Chinese territory in the Dingwei year (at first glance, it seems more likely to be a follow-up attack on Paekche or Silla if it's not an outright fabrication). You have no evidence that the man appointed to be temporary governor of Youzhou actually had any sort of Koguryo authority over his theoretical domain.

There is thus no conclusive evidence for Koguryo holding Youzhou or Beijing before 407, and no conclusive evidence for Koguryo holding Youzhou after 407. Implying anything else would be akin to filling in historical gaps with imagination. (Hebei buffer regions are still possible, though I would assert, as from the quoted text earlier, that the Yan had the upper hand, so I'm leaning toward a division at the Liao).

I thought I already stated that Korean scholars came to a consensus in which the Yan Commandery taken by Goguryeo refers to territory around the Daling River, which is still significantly west of the Liao River. In addition, I looked for the present-day locations of some of the fortresses mentioned in the Samguk Sagi and came up with this list:

Liaodong/Yanping (Yodong) = Liaoyang (Conquered and lost in June and November of 385, defended in January of 404/5)

Xuantu (Hyeondo) = Fushun or Liaoyang (Conquered and lost in June and November of 385)
Shin = Fushun, on the Hun River, which would technically place it in Qingyuan (Lost in February of 399/400)
Namso = Xinbin, Fushun (Lost in February of 399/400)
Sujun (Sukgun) = Beizhen, Jinzhou (Conquered in 401/2)
Yan Commandery = Daling River, Chaoyang/Jinzhou/Huludao (Conquered in November of 403/4)
Mokjeo = Muqi, which is within Xinbin, Fushun (Defended in December of 405/6)
Xingbei = Nong'an, Changchun (Defended in December of 405/6)
Helong = Chaoyang, Liaoning (Conquered in April of 436)

Xingbei and Helong refer to fortresses that were held by Beili and attacked by Goguryeo in 436, respectively, so I will discuss them later. Anyway, based on the above, it becomes clear that there are several gaps, specifically concerning when Goguryeo retook the first four fortresses. Based on their locations, it becomes clear that around 385-400, the border was already located very close to the Liao River, so if Goguryeo began to make attacks to the west, it would eventually hold territory relatively far away from the river. This assumption is further confirmed with the attack on Sujun, which was located significantly west of the river, and the gatekeeper essentially ran away without a fight. As a result, the previous four fortresses were probably retaken around 399-402, as not doing so would probably have led to a Yan counterattack near Hwando.

The records also state the month for all of the locations attacked except for Sujun, which suggests that it was one of several which was attacked in that year, although the others are uncertain due to the loss of records, and this assumption would make sense given the unstable border at the time. Also, given Sujun's location, another attack by Goguryeo would have been to its north or west, after ruling the south and east out as possibilities. The north would be highly unlikely given that Beili was located in that region, and had already been re-subjugated by Goguryeo in 395 and forced to pay tribute, which leaves the west as the only possibility, suggesting that the region was near the Daling River. The Yan did manage to counterattack by attacking Liaodong and Mokjeo, but given the lack of information, this either means that it either bypassed most of the intervening fortresses, such as Sujun, before attacking the ones mentioned, or retook some of them. The attack on Xingbei also illustrates how the Beili were firmly located in the north, given how the Yan troops were apprehensive about attacking, and clarifies that attacks by Goguryeo after 399 would have been to the west, not north. In addition, the much later attack on Helong, while demonstrating a different situation, suggests that the region near the fortress had been considered as a buffer zone for a while.

Regarding the six fortresses taken in 407, the Samguk Sagi mentions that 沙口城, with an identical pronunciation in Modern Sino-Korean, had been newly built in 417, and given how the details of the supervising officer refer to a previously stated event, it's highly unlikely that the date was copied incorrectly. In addition, the pronunciations of the two could have been different centuries ago, not to mention that Mandarin has an alternative pronunciation for "溝." Also, toponyms in the vicinity of the Liao River changed over time, as Yangping (襄平) was renamed to Yodong (遼東) by Goguryeo, for example, so it's very difficult to tell what each specific fortress was called over time.

To sum up, the limited evidence is not enough to come up with a clear picture for the entire situation, but it suggests that what is now Liaoning and Hebei frequently switched control between the Yan and Goguryeo around 399-407, while the Yan attacks east of the Liao River after 400 ultimately failed, suggesting that it was not in a very strong condition to continuously maintain an offensive position. If Goguryeo had invaded the Yan in 407, the conquered regions would have most likely included Hebei, and possibly Beijing, but the specific details are uncertain, and there is also the possibility of Goguryeo invading west through Beili, which may or may not have occurred IOTL.
 
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I usually resort to artistic license when there are no other options available, but for the most part, I try to base the details on roughly corresponding details IOTL as best as possible. In this case, given the evidence through limited sources, I would assume that if Gwanggaeto had access to much more manpower after capturing Wirye Fortress and forced the southern states to send troops, there might have been an impetus to head further west and hold onto the newly captured territories for a longer period of time.

I don't think so...
It would be logistic nightmare for Goguryeo to send army to such a long distance without proper preparation.
Even Sui and Tang Dynasty had problem with logistic and supply during they war with Gogureyo. And we are here talking Gogureyo much small, poor, less developed technologically and economically country.
About man power. I don't think Gogureyo had many man power. They couldn't colonize even Han river basin during hey day of Gogureyo so I don't think they had population boom early days of Gogureyo.
 
I don't think so...
It would be logistic nightmare for Goguryeo to send army to such a long distance without proper preparation.
Even Sui and Tang Dynasty had problem with logistic and supply during they war with Gogureyo. And we are here talking Gogureyo much small, poor, less developed technologically and economically country.
About man power. I don't think Gogureyo had many man power. They couldn't colonize even Han river basin during hey day of Gogureyo so I don't think they had population boom early days of Gogureyo.

Which is exactly why I had Goguryeo expand gradually over time, as Goguryeo attacked the Yan in Youzhou and Shandong twice before finally conquering both, and is still consolidating its gains. I also provided the statistics concerning the mobilization in 407 and 410 multiple times, and the state was semi-nomadic due to the fact that the vast majority of its resources were used for establishing a strong military, and gained supplies by either raiding or absorbing its neighbors, allowing it to expand and consolidate its gains. In other words, if Goguryeo ITTL required Baekje, Gaya, Seorabeol (Silla), Beili, Buyeo, and the Mohe to send about 30,000 troops in total, and increased its core component from 50,000 to 70,000 after adding troops inside fortresses and new recruits, it probably wouldn't be a stretch to increase the total number of troops to 100,000.

In addition, Goguryeo did not take Wirye because Asin surrendered, so there was no reason for Gwanggaeto to push further south. Given that 58 fortresses were conquered from 391-6, it's almost certain that if Asin made the decision to hold out, then Baekje would have been forced to retreat south of the river, similar to what occurred in 475.
 
I thought I already stated that Korean scholars came to a consensus in which the Yan Commandery taken by Goguryeo refers to territory around the Daling River, which is still significantly west of the Liao River. In addition, I looked for the present-day locations of some of the fortresses mentioned in the Samguk Sagi and came up with this list:

Liaodong/Yanping (Yodong) = Liaoyang (Conquered and lost in June and November of 385, defended in January of 404/5)

Xuantu (Hyeondo) = Fushun or Liaoyang (Conquered and lost in June and November of 385)
Shin = Fushun, on the Hun River, which would technically place it in Qingyuan (Lost in February of 399/400)
Namso = Xinbin, Fushun (Lost in February of 399/400)
Sujun (Sukgun) = Beizhen, Jinzhou (Conquered in 401/2)
Yan Commandery = Daling River, Chaoyang/Jinzhou/Huludao (Conquered in November of 403/4)
Mokjeo = Muqi, which is within Xinbin, Fushun (Defended in December of 405/6)
Xingbei = Nong'an, Changchun (Defended in December of 405/6)
Helong = Chaoyang, Liaoning (Conquered in April of 436)

Xingbei and Helong refer to fortresses that were held by Beili and attacked by Goguryeo in 436, respectively, so I will discuss them later. Anyway, based on the above, it becomes clear that there are several gaps, specifically concerning when Goguryeo retook the first four fortresses. Based on their locations, it becomes clear that around 385-400, the border was already located very close to the Liao River, so if Goguryeo began to make attacks to the west, it would eventually hold territory relatively far away from the river. This assumption is further confirmed with the attack on Sujun, which was located significantly west of the river, and the gatekeeper essentially ran away without a fight. As a result, the previous four fortresses were probably retaken around 399-402, as not doing so would probably have led to a Yan counterattack near Hwando.

The records also state the month for all of the locations attacked except for Sujun, which suggests that it was one of several which was attacked in that year, although the others are uncertain due to the loss of records, and this assumption would make sense given the unstable border at the time. Also, given Sujun's location, another attack by Goguryeo would have been to its north or west, after ruling the south and east out as possibilities. The north would be highly unlikely given that Beili was located in that region, and had already been re-subjugated by Goguryeo in 395 and forced to pay tribute, which leaves the west as the only possibility, suggesting that the region was near the Daling River. The Yan did manage to counterattack by attacking Liaodong and Mokjeo, but given the lack of information, this either means that it either bypassed most of the intervening fortresses, such as Sujun, before attacking the ones mentioned, or retook some of them. The attack on Xingbei also illustrates how the Beili were firmly located in the north, given how the Yan troops were apprehensive about attacking, and clarifies that attacks by Goguryeo after 399 would have been to the west, not north. In addition, the much later attack on Helong, while demonstrating a different situation, suggests that the region near the fortress had been considered as a buffer zone for a while.

Regarding the six fortresses taken in 407, the Samguk Sagi mentions that 沙口城, with an identical pronunciation in Modern Sino-Korean, had been newly built in 417, and given how the details of the supervising officer refer to a previously stated event, it's highly unlikely that the date was copied incorrectly. In addition, the pronunciations of the two could have been different centuries ago, not to mention that Mandarin has an alternative pronunciation for "溝." Also, toponyms in the vicinity of the Liao River changed over time, as Yangping (襄平) was renamed to Yodong (遼東) by Goguryeo, for example, so it's very difficult to tell what each specific fortress was called over time.

To sum up, the limited evidence is not enough to come up with a clear picture for the entire situation, but it suggests that what is now Liaoning and Hebei frequently switched control between the Yan and Goguryeo around 399-407, while the Yan attacks east of the Liao River after 400 ultimately failed, suggesting that it was not in a very strong condition to continuously maintain an offensive position. If Goguryeo had invaded the Yan in 407, the conquered regions would have most likely included Hebei, and possibly Beijing, but the specific details are uncertain, and there is also the possibility of Goguryeo invading west through Beili, which may or may not have occurred IOTL.
It's not so much an official policy, but three posts per thread is enough for me to air my objections per issue, and if I decide to respond to this, I will do so by PM.

I glanced at a map and thought the Daling River eventually became part of the Liao River, and was thus part of the area in question, but I think I'm wrong. Of course, I don't technically know the course of the river 1500 years ago, but that's minor.
 
Which is exactly why I had Goguryeo expand gradually over time, as Goguryeo attacked the Yan in Youzhou and Shandong twice before finally conquering both, and is still consolidating its gains. I also provided the statistics concerning the mobilization in 407 and 410 multiple times, and the state was semi-nomadic due to the fact that the vast majority of its resources were used for establishing a strong military, and gained supplies by either raiding or absorbing its neighbors, allowing it to expand and consolidate its gains. In other words, if Goguryeo ITTL required Baekje, Gaya, Seorabeol (Silla), Beili, Buyeo, and the Mohe to send about 30,000 troops in total, and increased its core component from 50,000 to 70,000 after adding troops inside fortresses and new recruits, it probably wouldn't be a stretch to increase the total number of troops to 100,000.

In addition, Goguryeo did not take Wirye because Asin surrendered, so there was no reason for Gwanggaeto to push further south. Given that 58 fortresses were conquered from 391-6, it's almost certain that if Asin made the decision to hold out, then Baekje would have been forced to retreat south of the river, similar to what occurred in 475.

Even Chingis Mongol Empire needed almost 30 year to beat Jin Dynasty which was in chaos during first half of 1200's. During that time Mongol cavalry was most powerful military in the world both in terms of strategy and technology. And they was most mobile army in the world.

Now we are talking about Goguryeo which hadn't 100% cavalry troops. Also you need to build strong Navy to conquer Japan and to beat Mongolian nomads and to defend long supply to your troops to reach Shandong and conquer so much land within 5-6 years is unrealistic.
Also Gogureyo can't be nomadic. Most nomads either allied with Rouran/Wei, or already become sedantary like Yan. So you can't find so many nomads. Nomads are born not made. So you can't be semi-nomad just because you are militaristic. You need a lot of man power to make your country function at home because your culture is sedentary.
 
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Even Chingis Mongol Empire needed almost 30 year to beat Jin Dynasty which was in chaos around early 1200. During that time Mongol cavalry was most powerful military in the world both in terms of strategy and technology. And they was most mobile army in the world.

So how is the Jurchen Jin in any way comparable to the Later Yan? The Jin ruled all of North China north of the Huai River, while the Yan only controlled the western portions, and needed to be constantly wary of the Wei, not to mention that the entire region was divided among multiple entities, and the situation as a whole did not stabilize until 439. There was also no comparable entity similar to Goguryeo around 1200, so the geopolitics in East Asia as a whole were drastically different.

Now we are talking about Goguryeo which hadn't 100% cavalry troops. Also you need to build strong Navy to conquer Japan and to beat Mongolian nomads and to defend long supply to your troops to reach Shandong within 5 year is unrealistic.
Also Gogureyo can't be nomadic. Most nomads either allied with Rouran/Wei, or already become sedantary like Yan. So you can't find so many nomads. Mohe at that time can't provide 30,0 thousand troops and if they had such manpower they already become very powerful. When Nurhach united all Jurchens it had approximately 30,0 thousand troops around 1600.

Goguryeo probably didn't recruit 100% cavalry, but the percentage IOTL was probably close to around 50-75%, depending on the situation, which is still significant. I stated earlier that Goguryeo itself was semi-nomadic, certainly before 500 or so, because the severe lack of resources essentially meant that its inhabitants were forced to look for them by continuously raiding its neighbors, then take over most of them altogether. In addition, the state had begun to culturally absorb Buyeo and Beili, along with the Mohe, by around 300-400 or so, and arranged strategic alliances with them, meaning that a steady supply of manpower would gradually trickle in over time, given how this was the situation IOTL. In any case, a significant amount of the Yan's military was also taken from conscripts and composed of infantry as well, so it would also have weaknesses.

The navy wouldn't be a significant issue, considering that the one in 396 IOTL managed to seize 58 fortresses in Baekje mostly because of it, and ITTL, the state as a whole would have been consolidating it for more than 15 years under Gwanggaeto by 407, with additional recruits from Baekje, and potentially Gaya and Silla as well. The supply would also be partially provided by the fortresses which had been conquered, so the issues would be partially nullified. Regarding reinforcements from other states, I meant that the six which I mentioned composed the total, meaning that each entity would contribute around 5,000 on average. Try to read more carefully next time.
 
So how is the Jurchen Jin in any way comparable to the Later Yan? The Jin ruled all of North China north of the Huai River, while the Yan only controlled the western portions, and needed to be constantly wary of the Wei, not to mention that the entire region was divided among multiple entities, and the situation as a whole did not stabilize until 439. There was also no comparable entity similar to Goguryeo around 1200, so the geopolitics in East Asia as a whole were drastically different.

Look at your Map. You conquered whole Hebei, Shandong which means half of North China, which in 400's term almost 40% of Chinese heartland.
In 1200 you need just deal with Jin Dynasty. Now ITTL you need to manage a lot of enemies. And as I understand Goguryeo had no allies ITTL. So Goguryeo had more difficult than 1200's Mongol.

Goguryeo probably didn't recruit 100% cavalry, but the percentage IOTL was probably close to around 50-75%, depending on the situation, which is still significant. I stated earlier that Goguryeo itself was semi-nomadic, certainly before 500 or so, because the severe lack of resources essentially meant that its inhabitants were forced to look for them by continuously raiding its neighbors, then take over most of them altogether. In addition, the state had begun to culturally absorb Buyeo and Beili, along with the Mohe, by around 300-400 or so, and arranged strategic alliances with them, meaning that a steady supply of manpower would gradually trickle in over time, given how this was the situation IOTL. In any case, a significant amount of the Yan's military was also taken from conscripts and composed of infantry as well, so it would also have weaknesses.

Nomads culture is way of life. Nomads are born not made. You can't be semi-nomad just because your are very war-like.
If you are not nomad warrior (i mean real nomad) you will have logistic and supply problem when you wage war far from your base.
You can't recruit Yan troops outright because you are aggressor. They won't trust you and serve you. Maybe some 10-20 years later you can recruit next generation as a troop.
Since you said your economy is very weak, that means you can't sustain large navy and army for such a long period.
 
Look at your Map. You conquered whole Hebei, Shandong which means half of North China, which in 400's term almost 40% of Chinese heartland.
In 1200 you need just deal with Jin Dynasty. Now ITTL you need to manage a lot of enemies. And as I understand Goguryeo had no allies ITTL. So Goguryeo had more difficult than 1200's Mongol.

40% is much less than 100%, not to mention that the Later Yan also suffered from a variety of internal and external issues, such as military purges and the threat of invasion from multiple fronts. Goguryeo IOTL and ITTL contacted the Eastern Jin around 412-3, not to mention that ITTL, it contacted the Western Xia in 415, and will send diplomats to both the Rouran and the Liu Song later on, given that they will be willing to ally against the Wei. As a result, the Wei, not Goguryeo, will be surrounded by enemies.

Nomads culture is way of life. Nomads are born not made. You can't be semi-nomad just because your are very war-like.
If you are not nomad warrior (i mean real nomad) you will have logistic and supply problem when you wage war far from your base.
You can't recruit Yan troops outright because you are aggressor. They won't trust you and serve you. Maybe some 10-20 years later you can recruit next generation as a troop.
Since you said your economy is very weak, that means you can't sustain large navy and army for such a long period.

Again, your statements about "real" nomads make your argument weaker in general, not to mention ignoring Goguryeo's circumstances from around 100 BC to 500 AD. Goguryeo was forced to maintain a nomadic lifestyle for centuries because the land was not suitable for farming, meaning that it raided its neighbors for tribute until they were absorbed around 300-500, so it was far from sedentary until around 500-600 or so. The "nomads" that you're talking about also had numerous supply issues as well, as the Khitan were cut off from available sources and were forced to retreat after invading the Song and Goryeo, while the Yuan needed decades to conquer the Jin and Song, along with subjugating Goryeo, as it was forced to retreat and/or send reinforcements multiple times during lengthy sieges, not to mention the Jurchen and Manchus.

I also said nothing about recruiting troops from the Yan before 420, although many will join by 430-50. I also never stated that the economy was weak, but rather that it was concentrated on the military, allowing it to dominate and expand its control over its neighbors even during numerous pressures from Chinese states to the west.
 
40% is much less than 100%, not to mention that the Later Yan also suffered from a variety of internal and external issues, such as military purges and the threat of invasion from multiple fronts. Goguryeo IOTL and ITTL contacted the Eastern Jin around 412-3, not to mention that ITTL, it contacted the Western Xia in 415, and will send diplomats to both the Rouran and the Liu Song later on, given that they will be willing to ally against the Wei. As a result, the Wei, not Goguryeo, will be surrounded by enemies.

40% is huge for tiny Gogurye. it means at least 25 million Chinese.
I talking about you need ally to conquer Hebei and Shandong. Without you pacifying your west how you can have safe supply tp your troops while you wage war in Shandong?

Again, your statements about "real" nomads make your argument weaker in general, not to mention ignoring Goguryeo's circumstances from around 100 BC to 500 AD. Goguryeo was forced to maintain a nomadic lifestyle for centuries because the land was not suitable for farming, meaning that it raided its neighbors for tribute until they were absorbed around 300-500, so it was far from sedentary until around 500-600 or so. The "nomads" that you're talking about also had numerous supply issues as well, as the Khitan were cut off from available sources and were forced to retreat after invading the Song and Goryeo, while the Yuan needed decades to conquer the Jin and Song, along with subjugating Goryeo, as it was forced to retreat and/or send reinforcements multiple times during lengthy sieges, not to mention the Jurchen and Manchus.

I also said nothing about recruiting troops from the Yan before 420, although many will join by 430-50. I also never stated that the economy was weak, but rather that it was concentrated on the military, allowing it to dominate and expand its control over its neighbors even during numerous pressures from Chinese states to the west.

Seems you can't imagine who are nomads and what they do, and how they battle.
You can't be nomad just because you raiding your neighbours.
Nomadic pastoralism is where livestock are herded in order to find fresh pastures on which to graze following an irregular pattern of movement.

The "nomads" that you're talking about also had numerous supply issues as well, as the Khitan were cut off from available sources and were forced to retreat after invading the Song and Goryeo, while the Yuan needed decades to conquer the Jin and Song, along with subjugating Goryeo, as it was forced to retreat and/or send reinforcements multiple times during lengthy sieges, not to mention the Jurchen and Manchus.

I don't understand what are you want to tell me by this?
I'm telling Goguryeo will have logistic nightmare and huge supply problem.
And I'm telling Gogpryeo need decades to invade Hebei and Shandong not 5-6 years.

I also said nothing about recruiting troops from the Yan before 420, although many will join by 430-50. I also never stated that the economy was weak, but rather that it was concentrated on the military, allowing it to dominate and expand its control over its neighbors even during numerous pressures from Chinese states to the west.

You are boosting your troops to advance through China right?

If your economy weak you will have a lot revolt and instability at home. If your home is not stable you can't conduct successful military expedition abroad.

What I'm trying to tell you is Goguryeo expansion is too overstretched (in 411 AD) and unrealistic by your scenario.
 
This is going to be my last post before my next update, so I will not respond to any posts for some time. As a result, any detailed criticism should be in the form of a PM for about a few weeks, with the actual time depending on the situation, although I will probably respond to them sporadically due to other pressing issues.

40% is huge for tiny Gogurye. it means at least 25 million Chinese.
I talking about you need ally to conquer Hebei and Shandong. Without you pacifying your west how you can have safe supply tp your troops while you wage war in Shandong?

Where are your sources? I haven't seen you mention a single one. The Sima Jin probably did not have more than 25 million, although the census stated around 16 million, meaning that the population decreased by around three-fourths from its height during the Han due to the civil war. As a result, the population would have stagnated around 300-450, meaning that Hebei and Shandong, which I would consider to be about 5-15% of China Proper at the time, would have around 4-6 million, as I stated earlier.

The western alliance's incursions in 407 and 410 would be enough to distract the Yan and force them to station more troops in the west, not to mention that it had no navy.

Seems you can't imagine who are nomads and what they do, and how they battle.
You can't be nomad just because you raiding your neighbours.
Nomadic pastoralism is where livestock are herded in order to find fresh pastures on which to graze following an irregular pattern of movement.

Well, if you're going to quote Wikipedia, you conveniently ignored these definitions:

Nomadic cultures are discussed in three categories according to economic specialization: hunter-gatherers, pastoral nomads, and "peripatetic nomads".
A hunter-gatherer or forager society is one in which most or all food is obtained from wild plants and animals, in contrast to agricultural societies which rely mainly on domesticated species.
In other words, there are different types of "nomads," not to mention that I stated that Goguryeo was semi-nomadic, although its military adopted nomadic elements.

I don't understand what are you want to tell me by this?
I'm telling Goguryeo will have logistic nightmare and huge supply problem.
And I'm telling Gogpryeo need decades to invade Hebei and Shandong not 5-6 years.

You seemed to harp on the fact that the Wei was an example of a "successful" nomadic dynasty, even though its expansion was conditional on the relative disorganization of its neighbors. Your suggestions only make sense if Goguryeo did not have any allies, and was the only state that the Yan had to worry about, but the western alliance continued to remain relatively intact until the Yan's eventual downfall, while Goguryeo will continue to resupply from the fortresses that it gradually captured from 399-410.

You are boosting your troops to advance through China right?

If your economy weak you will have a lot revolt and instability at home. If your home is not stable you can't conduct successful military expedition abroad.

What I'm trying to tell you is Goguryeo expansion is too overstretched (in 411 AD) and unrealistic by your scenario.

Again, Goguryeo obtained resources and tribute from its neighbors after dominating or subjugating them, as they would have to contribute in order to avoid retaliation, subjugation, and/or conquest. ITTL, this would involve Baekje, Gaya, Seorabeol, Wa, Beili, Buyeo, and Mohe/Sushen before 410, along with the Yan afterward, so the resources produced within Goguryeo, along with those in the form of tribute, would all add up, similar to the corresponding troop numbers from most of the entities.
 
Well, if you're going to quote Wikipedia, you conveniently ignored these definitions:

I'm Mongolian, my father and grand father was nomads. So I could tell you what it is mean to be nomad, and how it was helping them to fight.

In other words, there are different types of "nomads," not to mention that I stated that Goguryeo was semi-nomadic, although its military adopted nomadic elements.

Can you distinguish all these nomads? Who they are? Where they live? How they lived? How they society evolved?
Not only you don't have any knowledge about Mongolia and its history you are totally out of mind about them. Never trust your biased Korean History, you just can take them as a indication not a fact.

Where are your sources? I haven't seen you mention a single one. The Sima Jin probably did not have more than 25 million, although the census stated around 16 million, meaning that the population decreased by around three-fourths from its height during the Han due to the civil war. As a result, the population would have stagnated around 300-450, meaning that Hebei and Shandong, which I would consider to be about 5-15% of China Proper at the time, would have around 4-6 million, as I stated earlier.

Interesting, do you say now that one of the core region of Northern China has only 4-6 million population, or your Map is not accurately drawn?
During 400's Northern China Plain contained 80% of Chinese population. So it means this region contained at least 40 -50 million population. That's why I said 40% is around 25 million.

Again, Goguryeo obtained resources and tribute from its neighbors after dominating or subjugating them, as they would have to contribute in order to avoid retaliation, subjugation, and/or conquest. ITTL, this would involve Baekje, Gaya, Seorabeol, Wa, Beili, Buyeo, and Mohe/Sushen before 410, along with the Yan afterward, so the resources produced within Goguryeo, along with those in the form of tribute, would all add up, similar to the corresponding troop numbers from most of the entities.

I hope you are understanding burden of War. Sui dynasty fell because of burden of War, one of reason of Ming Dynasty fall was War burden.

All your subjects are ruined by war and conquest and you need to build their economy first in order to have do expansionist war.
 
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Again, Goguryeo obtained resources and tribute from its neighbors after dominating or subjugating them, as they would have to contribute in order to avoid retaliation, subjugation, and/or conquest. ITTL, this would involve Baekje, Gaya, Seorabeol, Wa, Beili, Buyeo, and Mohe/Sushen before 410, along with the Yan afterward, so the resources produced within Goguryeo, along with those in the form of tribute, would all add up, similar to the corresponding troop numbers from most of the entities.

I hope you are understanding burden of War. Sui dynasty fell because of burden of War, one of reason of Ming Dynasty fall was War burden.

All your subjects are ruined by war and conquest and you need to build their economy first in order to have do expansionist war.
 
I'm Mongolian, my father and grand father was nomads. So I could tell you what it is mean to be nomad, and how it was helping them to fight.



Can you distinguish all these nomads? Who they are? Where they live? How they lived? How they society evolved?
Not only you don't have any knowledge about Mongolia and its history you are totally out of mind about them. Never trust your biased Korean History, you just can take them as a indication not a fact.



Interesting, do you say now that one of the core region of Northern China has only 4-6 million population, or your Map is not accurately drawn?
During 400's Northern China Plain contained 80% of Chinese population. So it means this region contained at least 40 -50 million population. That's why I said 40% is around 25 million.
I'd have to argue about such specific data points. 50 million seems quite a bit for just Northern China at this time. 80% concentrated in North China would be a high estimate too. Around this time, the Tuoba Wei had an estimated 5 million registered households, so that would be around 30-35 million people, while the Liu Song had about 9 million people at around the same time. But, the censuses at the time wouldn't count the indigenous, ungoverned tribes particularly in the south. However, adding the figures up, and factoring in the uncounted tribal peoples, probably wouldn't exceed 50 million people for all of China. That part seems fairly reasonable to me. I'd have to do more research to be sure, but at a first glance, this isn't unreasonable.

But, I actually don't think the population of Hebei and Shandong only make up 5-15% of the entire Chinese population at this time. That estimate seems like a low estimate to me.
 
I'm Mongolian, my father and grand father was nomads. So I could tell you what it is mean to be nomad, and how it was helping them to fight.

A nomadic lifestyle generally implies the opposite of a sedentary one. This by extension would include hunters and gathers as well, whether they were from the Stone Age or lived around 1000 years ago, as they did not draw most of their resources from settled regions, but moved around from place to place. You're giving me one specific definition of a nomad, in which the individuals mostly rely on livestock for resources, but it doesn't encompass all of the possibilities, which cover multiple regions.

Can you distinguish all these nomads? Who they are? Where they live? How they lived? How they society evolved?
Not only you don't have any knowledge about Mongolia and its history you are totally out of mind about them. Never trust your biased Korean History, you just can take them as a indication not a fact.

Yes, but the Mongolians were far from the only nomads in the world. You're taking a very narrow definition and trying to apply it to all cultures and regions, which doesn't really make sense. For example, many individuals within the Amazon River Basin were and still are "nomads," even though the environment is mostly forest, so it is certainly not conducive to herding. The biggest weakness covering all of your arguments is that you only tend to view individual or broad components from a "Mongolian" point of view, although that essentially covers a negligible portion in comparison to global history as a whole, which covers thousands of years and numerous regions.

Interesting, do you say now that one of the core region of Northern China has only 4-6 million population, or your Map is not accurately drawn?
During 400's Northern China Plain contained 80% of Chinese population. So it means this region contained at least 40 -50 million population. That's why I said 40% is around 25 million.

Again, where are your sources? The population within China Proper fell from around 50-60 million in 0-100 AD to around 16 million in 300 according to censuses, although the estimate for the latter would probably be closer to 20-25 million, as many individuals in remote regions were left out of the total count due to the Jin's relative instability. In any case, the population decreased by more than half due to civil war, and the chaos after nomads invaded from the north suggests that the population of China Proper was only around 30-45 million during 350-400, with around 20-25 total within North China. The population within North China increased to around 30-35 million by the time that the Wei conducted statistics around 450, but that only shows that the figures grew from a smaller amount when states within the region continued to fight each other.

Also, the population in China Proper probably did not reach 50 million again until around the 7th century. As a result, unless you're telling me that the population decreased from 50-60 million (0-100) to 20-5 million (300), then inexplicably increased to 50-60 million despite the turmoil occurring in North China, in which 80% still remained in North China despite the mass exoduses southward, and the population stagnated, instead of increasing, around 450-650, I don't think that your figures really make sense as a whole.

I hope you are understanding burden of War. Sui dynasty fell because of burden of War, one of reason of Ming Dynasty fall was War burden.

Yes, but the Sui essentially faced an unified entity that had built more than 100 fortresses within various locations for centuries, and the Ming is a different matter altogether because the geopolitics had changed drastically. The Sui also faced severe logistical problems because they had to continuously supply more than one million troops, which was why Goguryeo used guerrilla warfare at one point, so is not technically relevant to this situation, given that the troop numbers on each side was around only 10% of the Sui.

All your subjects are ruined by war and conquest and you need to build their economy first in order to have do expansionist war.

Unless the Yan was a superpower that extended across most of China Proper, which it was far from both IOTL and ITTL, although it maintained a rough hegemony within North China at some points, I don't think that it can hold out against the western and eastern alliances forever. According to your logic, Gwanggaeto should have been stymied within about 10 years of warfare IOTL, but he continued to conquer and subjugate areas for about 20 years in four compass directions, and obtained tribute which he obtained from multiple regions, such as large amounts of livestock from Beili. He also managed to conquer around 75-100 fortresses in total, based on 58 that were taken from Baekje, which suggests that he used each newly conquered region to supply his troops and expand further into multiple regions, strengthening his position within Northeast Asia.

I hope you are understanding burden of War. Sui dynasty fell because of burden of War, one of reason of Ming Dynasty fall was War burden.

All your subjects are ruined by war and conquest and you need to build their economy first in order to have do expansionist war.

I think you accidentally repeated these statements, but try not to do it again.

I'd have to argue about such specific data points. 50 million seems quite a bit for just Northern China at this time. 80% concentrated in North China would be a high estimate too. Around this time, the Tuoba Wei had an estimated 5 million registered households, so that would be around 30-35 million people, while the Liu Song had about 9 million people at around the same time. But, the censuses at the time wouldn't count the indigenous, ungoverned tribes particularly in the south. However, adding the figures up, and factoring in the uncounted tribal peoples, probably wouldn't exceed 50 million people for all of China. That part seems fairly reasonable to me. I'd have to do more research to be sure, but at a first glance, this isn't unreasonable.

But, I actually don't think the population of Hebei and Shandong only make up 5-15% of the entire Chinese population at this time. That estimate seems like a low estimate to me.

Based on the available figures, my rough estimates would be around 20-25 million in North China by 400, and around 10-20 in the south, which provides a rough range of around 30-45 million for China Proper. The proportion within Hebei and Shandong might be higher, specifically around 10-25%, but my main points still stand.
 
Due to the extreme delay in posting this update, I have decided to introduce a personal set of policies within this thread, and I will not respond to members who choose to ignore them. Any general questions, comments, and feedback are certainly still welcome without any restrictions, but the limits on constructive criticism will be as follows:

Each member is allowed to provide three posts concerning specific details and/or facts (except for very general issues, such as writing style or general content) within a single month, although I will allow a few days for leeway. For the purposes of this thread, each month begins on the day that I post an update.

If any member wishes to go over this limit, he or she must specifically quote a passage from at least a reliable primary or secondary source written before 1900, so tertiary sources will generally not be allowed, although sources extensively quoting specific passages of the original are allowed. For example, the Records of the Three Kingdoms will be classified as a primary source, while the Samguk Sagi would be a secondary one. English translations are acceptable, but if sources do not have English versions, I will decide on an individual basis whether they are acceptable or not. It is also perfectly fine to thoroughly criticize a source as well.

If these procedures are thoroughly followed, the new limit will be five posts, although I will allow someone to temporarily bypass the second restriction if I feel that the points are reasonable. I'll also try to be flexible with shorter posts unrelated from others regarding content, as most of them will require less effort for me to respond.

In addition, PM's are not restricted to these limits, although my responses will probably be delayed.

If you still have any questions regarding these new policies, please send me a PM so that they don't clutter up this thread, and I will edit them if necessary.

Anyway, here's the extremely delayed update.



先己後人/선기후인 [1]

Yeonsu (연수/延壽) 10-20 (420-430)

Although Georyeon initially made the decision to relocate the capital to Yodong in 420, it was not until five years later that the plans were fully carried out [2]. The main intention for the transfer was mostly due to finding a more suitable method for governing a greatly expanded population and territory, most of which had been recently conquered a decade ago. However, another reason included weakening the power of the aristocracy within Guknae Fortress, which had begun to form various competing factions, and many of them had begun to undermine the power of the monarch due to his young age and relative inexperience. Moving the capital further north also had the potential of strengthening the fortresses in the vicinity of the Liao River, along with the coastline surrounding the northernmost reaches of the Yellow Sea, which would be crucial for defense during a potential invasion from the west or north. In addition, the location of the new capital provided an opportunity for former Yan aristocrats, Xianbei and Han, to actively participate in politics as well, allowing the foreign population as a whole to gradually integrate themselves into Goguryeo society. Although this decision also meant that the southern border within the peninsula would be comparatively neglected after the move due to the population, Georyeon was confident that any issues in the short run would be resolved diplomatically, while the military would be consolidated and expanded within that time period in preparation for an extensive conflict in the long term. As a result, after a large party was held in 424 to celebrate an abundant harvest, the capital was finally relocated to the northwest.

Meanwhile, the Northern Wei [3] was making preparations to consolidate and reorganize the territory that it had recently seized in 417. Although there were no major revolts stalling Tuoba Gui's efforts, the states to the west remained strong, as they would continue to solidify their positions after the Wei began to recover after around 30 years of warfare from 386-417, when it allied with various states such as the Later Yan and Later Qin [4]. Although the latter had also managed to briefly establish relative dominance over the westernmost states within North China from 407-12 [5], relations began to sour with the Wei in 405, when the alliance was in danger of falling apart. As a result, after conflicts between the two resumed in 410, the Qin gradually began to lose its influence within the region, and a succession dispute in 414, along with a revolt in 416, eventually led to the state's demise. After 417, North China was carved up among the Wei, Jin, and Xia, but the southern one was eventually driven out from the region by 425, and after several skirmishes, a mutually agreed border between the Wei and Xia was established later in that year, allowing each state within China to consolidate its government.

Within the Wei, the monarchy and the court were struggling to consolidate their respective positions from 395 onward. Although Tuoba Gui had been dealt a stunning loss at Canhe Slope, forcing him to maintain a defensive position, he carried out a purge of his generals who were blamed for the defeat, which greatly subdued the criticism against him in the short run [6]. After he had gained the throne in 386 by unifying the various Xianbei tribes within the area, he had begun to consolidate the monarchy by implementing reforms in order to allow the throne to be passed down from father to son, rather than to a brother, reducing political tension and instability in the short term. These changes allowed him to take further steps in 405, when the state had somewhat recovered from several invasions by the Yan, by shifting the balance of power from the military to a separate aristocracy by greatly increasing the number of positions in the latter, allowing the monarchy to gain more influence in the long term. Although he hoped to eventually obtain dominance over the Yan by the end of his reign in order to further ensure the state's stability, his harsh policies toward his officials due to extreme paranoia, along with a conflict with one of his consorts, led their son, Tuoba Shao (拓跋紹), to assassinate him in 409. Although the assassin then began making a bid for the throne, he was soon caught by hostile guards and executed, causing his successor and crown prince, Tuoba Si (拓跋嗣), to lay down most of the steps for further political consolidation and territorial expansion. His plans were greatly aided when Goguryeo's two attacks on the Yan in 407 and 410 enabled the ruler to increase his influence and expand to the east. These developments allowed him to successfully confront the Qin, which had been facing multiple attacks from the Rouran, Xia, and Jin for over a decade.

Soon after taking the throne, the Wei ruler began to focus on internal consolidation. He was originally appointed as crown prince due to his intelligence and rationality, in stark contrast to his mentally unstable younger half-brother, Tuoba Shao, which led to constant friction between the two until the power struggle was finally resolved in 409. Like most rulers during the time, Tuoba Si gained the throne when he was only 17, and was also saddened by the fact that earlier in the year, his mother had been put to death so that she would not exercise undue power through her son [7]. As a result, his young age and temporary emotional issues initially led to discontent among the officials, but was mollified when he began to appoint eight main officials in order to advise him in important matters. These reforms allowed the ruler to gather diverse viewpoints, allowing with causing aristocrats to compete with each other in order to gain the monarch's attention. In addition, he reversed most of his father's policies by allowing officials from various ethnicities to openly criticize his policies. However, when an advisor, Tuoba Qu (拓跋屈), failed to successfully carry out an offensive maneuver into Xia territory, the monarch swiftly executed him for incompetence, demonstrating his willingness to serve punishment when necessary, along with reaffirming his status.

However, threats from other states continued to loom throughout his reign. Although the Xia focused mainly on fighting the Later Qin in order to avoid antagonizing two powerful states at once, the Wei continued to clash with the latter. In addition, although Tuoba Wei had attacked the Rouran and killed its ruler earlier in 391, the state as a whole continued to remain strong. As a result, the northern state consistently looked for ways to undermine the Wei by conducting several raids in order to strain the latter's resources, causing the latter to respond in kind. These issues eventually caused Tuoba Si to send diplomats to the Later Qin, Eastern Jin, and the Rouran in 414 in order to temporarily establish stable relations with each, which all complied to. Meanwhile, the Jin took advantage of the Qin's civil war by attacking it in 416, and eventually brought an end to the state in 417 by conquering its capital, Chang'an (長安) [8]. Initially, the Wei ruler hesitated to participate in the conflict between the two due to mutual agreements, although it eventually decided to send troops to the Qin in order to harass the Jin through guerrilla tactics [9]. However, the latter responded by defeating the Wei in open battle, causing the raiders to withdraw. Although the Jin's victories meant that it managed to establish a stable presence in North China, the demise of the Later Qin meant that the Wei was left without any direct challengers in the region, allowing the ruler to proclaim himself as the emperor of the Northern Wei in 418 [10].

On the other hand, Georyeon continued to strengthen his status as the monarch by facilitating significant waves of immigration into recently conquered regions. Although the massive relocation of migrants within the Korean Plain [11] and the peninsula would continue for more than a century before stabilizing, the Taewang's policies would be the beginning of gradual population and political shifts from the center to regions in the west and south, which had been considered as frontiers only a decade ago [12]. Nobles and commoners alike were heavily encouraged to move from traditional bases near Jolbon and Gungnae to remote yet fertile locations, allowing closely-knit factions to be spread out among multiple regions. Due to the extensive changes implemented within a few years, members of the aristocracy began to grumble due to the hassle of relocating large amounts of resources, such as land and workers, so many of them elected to move northwest instead of further south. However, the ruler still managed to rearrange the court and force them to abide by his will, eventually allowing him to set up a core loyal faction, while officials in remote regions were able to operate semi-independently of the central government and make certain decisions without consistently sending messengers, allowing greater efficiency as a whole. Eventually, after the capital had been relocated, Georyeon decided to change the official name of the state to Goryeo in 427 in order to indicate significant shifts in both internal and external policies [13].

Goryeo also began to actively utilize its strategic location by controlling trade between the peninsula and China, and reorganized trade routes within the Korean Plain. In addition, beginning in 415, it began to charge tribute in the form of taxes on foreign traders entering Goryeo territory, and merchants were required to carry special name tags in order to indicate their status [14]. Although these policies had the adverse effect of more Baekje ships heading directly to the Song instead of going through Goryeo ports, most traders from Gaya, Seorabeol, and various Japanese statelets decided to head to its northern neighbor in order to gain access to a growing market. In addition, Buyeo, Beili, and the Mohe had no choice but to go through its southern neighbor in order to trade, and the latter's status as an intermediary allowed the northern entities to gain access to southern peninsular markets as well. On the other hand, although the Wei had developed stable political relations with its eastern neighbor in 415, the trade volume between the two did not become substantial until ten years later, due to the chaos within North China, and the lack of ships within the Wei. However, Goryeo decided to exempt its western neighbor from most taxes due to the lower status that it had initially adopted when initially approaching the Wei for diplomatic relations, and continued to occasionally send tribute afterward in the form of gifts. As a whole, although Goryeo's policies benefited the state at a disproportionate rate in comparison with its neighbors, they also allowed everyone as a whole to come into greater contact with each other, facilitating the flow of transportation and information across East Asia.

Meanwhile, political turmoil was rampant within East Asian states, as the rulers were replaced for various reasons. Jeonji had gradually restored contacts with Seorabeol, Gaya, and polities within the Japanese islands during his reign by sending gifts to each, along with welcoming diplomats. After his death in March of 420, his first son, Guisin (구이신왕/久爾辛王), took the throne, but an official, Mokmanchi (목만치/木滿致), who had close relations with his mother, ruled as regent due to his young age. Soon after, other officials began taking advantage of the fragile situation by forming factions, eventually overthrowing the figurehead in 427 and installing Biyu (비유왕/毗有王) in his place [15]. The new ruler then began to consolidate his power by conducting a tour of the country in February of the following year in order to inspect his subjects, and provided grain to those who were in need. In 428, 50 ambassadors from Japan arrived to pay their respects, and in October, the ruler appointed one of his officials, Haesu (해수/解須), as Sangjwapyeong (상좌평/上佐平) after Yeosin's death. However, an earthquake in November, along with strong winds and abnormally warm conditions in the following month, meant that the ruler had to focus on internal affairs for several months [16]. After they had been resolved, Biyu sent a diplomat to the Song in 429 to present tribute, and the latter responded with an ambassador in April. Seorabeol also had its hands full, as the ruler's younger brother, Misaheun (미사흔/未斯欣), escaped from Japan, while the state suffered from famines in 420 to the point where many prisoners were freed in the fall, and Nulji sent an envoy to Goryeo in 425 in order to maintain diplomatic relations.

In addition, the various states within the region attempted to set up strategic alliances in order to maintain their statuses, and although there were occasional conflicts, none was willing to escalate them due to the implied involvement and protection of several other states. Baekje continued to take the initiative in persuading Gaya, Seorabeol, and statelets within the Japanese archipelago to join an alliance against Goryeo. However, the process continued to be delayed as other issues trumped military ones, as aristocrats within each state generally focused on internal issues and favored maintaining tributary statuses in order to minimize risk. Although Baekje also sent envoys to the Wei and Liu Song as well in order to explore potential alternatives, their responses regarding an invasion into Goryeo were lukewarm, as each was busy with more pressing issues concerning border disputes with other states. Meanwhile, the temporary instability in the south soon after the fall of the Jin allowed the Wei to take a stronger stance, and it eventually attacked and seized Huatai (滑臺) [17], Luoyang (洛陽), Hulao (虎牢) [18], and Xuchang (許昌), from 424-5, soon after Liu Yu, as Emperor Wu (劉宋武帝), passed away in 423. The losses eventually caused his successor, Liu Yifu (劉義符), who was enthroned as Emperor Shao (劉宋少帝), to be removed from power and replaced him with his younger brother, Liu Yilong (劉義隆), who became Emperor Wen (劉宋文帝) in 425 [19]. As a result, although the southern Chinese state was suffering from political turmoil, it began to look for ways to counter Wei's increasing influence, causing it to seek closer ties with the Xia, Rouran, and Goryeo. Although all of them promised to counter the Wei, the Xia and Rouran were faced with internal issues after their rulers passed away in 425 and 429, respectively, making it difficult for them to focus on external affairs. As a result, each state became entangled in complex alliances, which would have drastic repercussions decades later when conflicts erupted across Central and East Asia.



[1] “First body after person.” The intended meaning is devoting oneself to personal matters before thinking about issues concerning others. The origin is unknown.

[2] IOTL, Jangsu moved the capital southward to Pyongyang in 427 because Baekje still remained as a potential threat in the south, in addition to the fact that the land was more fertile in comparison to Guknae, along with allowing the ruler to curb the court's growing influence within the government.

[3] This is the first time that I have decided to revert a change I have made in a previous post. Although “Tuoba Wei” is also an acceptable nomenclature for the state, “Northern Wei” should be the predominant one based on the names for other states within North China, such as the Southern Yan. I made the change earlier because of the mistaken assumption that the Northern Wei's name stemmed from the fact that it had unified North China. However, during the time period in question, the state would have been solely been referred to as the “Wei,” and the “Northern” identifier, like corresponding ones for other states, was added afterward by historians for clarification.

[4] I didn't include this in my previous updates, but the Later Yan and Northern Wei were originally allied from 386-91, and confronted other states such as the Western Yan, although the agreement ceased to exist after the former demanded more troops. The Northern Wei also briefly allied with the Western Yan after relations with the Later Yan became hostile, which eventually culminated in the Yan's loss at Canhe Slope in 395 and its eventual collapse in 409.

[5] IOTL, the Later Qin managed to maintain a relatively strong position within North China from 400-2 and again from 403-7 due to the chaos caused by the Later Yan's continuous defeats against the Wei, but the vassal states continued to remain independent, and each state's position in regards to geopolitics frequently shifted over time.

[6] Tuoba Gui began to sentence numerous officials to death around 406-9 IOTL due to extensive attempts in order to consolidate his rule, although he would have been motivated to carry out significant purges much earlier ITTL because he could have been in danger of losing his throne after such a devastating defeat.

[7] IOTL, while Tuoba Gui justified his decision by citing examples of previous emperors who had carried out similar actions, it remains unclear whether his increasing mental instability played a major role as well, as it provided a major reason for his eventual assassination by one of his sons.

[8] Located in modern-day Xi'an, Shaanxi.

[9] Chinese records suggest that the Wei raised around 100,000 troops, but this is highly unlikely considering the fact that they mostly limited themselves to sporadic raids and guerrilla operations, and never confronted the Jin directly in a pitched battle until the latter forced them to do so.

[10] Posthumously known as Emperor Mingyuan (明元帝). IOTL, a Wei victory at Canhe Slope, and its growing dominance over the Yan soon after, meant that Tuoba Gui, posthumously Emperor Daowu (道武帝), became emperor in 398, which is not true ITTL, as the Wei was able to extend its influence only after the Later Qin's demise.

[11] This term will be used ITTL from now on as the corresponding region of Manchuria IOTL, although other alternatives may be used in future updates if necessary.

[12] These population shifts also occurred IOTL, as even though the Liaodong Peninsula was not fully conquered until 403, historical records suggest that most of the population was concentrated within the Liaodong Peninsula by the time that Goguryeo fell in 668. In addition, numerous Goguryeo artifacts used by nobles have been found south of the Han River, suggesting that many settled there permanently. However, the migration south was relatively limited in comparison, as Goguryeo did not sack Wirye until 475, and a joint attack by Silla and Baekje meant that the northern state was eventually pushed north of the river permanently by 551.

[13] IOTL, this change occurred in the same year, and the state is referred to as “Goryeo” in most Chinese records complied afterward. However, the Samguk Sagi consistently refers to the state as “Goguryeo” due to the fact that “Goryeo,” which was founded in 918, was in existence when the record was complied (1145). For a loose comparison, labeling the state as “Goguryeo” makes as much sense as calling OTL Silla “Seorabeol,” as the shorter nomenclature was not officially adopted until 503. In other words, I've made the decision to switch the “old” and “new” nomenclatures for Goguryeo and Silla due to stylistic reasons, and I will refer to the former as “Goryeo” from now on.

[14] A similar policy probably existed IOTL, given that after Goguryeo's southward expansions, states in the south had no choice but to go through their northern neighbor for both land and maritime trade in most cases from 475-551, but the lack of extant sources means that this conjecture will probably remain unconfirmed.

[15] The Samguk Sagi simply states that he reigned from 420-427, but the Nihon Shoki provides further details about his reign. It is also unclear if Guisin was Biyu's father.

[16] IOTL, the earthquake affected Wirye, the capital, but as Ungjin, the capital at this time ITTL, was located not far from the original location, I assumed that the event would have significantly affected the new location as well, not to mention the original capital, which is within Goguryeo ITTL.

[17] Located in modern-day Anyang, Henan.

[18] Located in modern-day Zhengzhou, Henan.

[19] IOTL, Liu Yifu took the throne in 422, and Yiu Yilong succeeded him in 424.
 
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