A Light in the East: A Korean TL

[MonAngel]

I thought I made it clear several times already, so please read the timeline over again. The Wei was decisively defeated on Canhe Slope in 395, which means that it was unable to consolidate control over North China as it did IOTL, while the Yan managed to retain its position until it finally collapsed in 410. I also mentioned the Wei several times as part of the western alliance, which should have indicated that it was not in a strong position if it had to rely on its neighbors to resist the Yan. In other words, the Wei has only managed to dominate most of North China by 417, so it's nowhere near the position that it was IOTL, although it will become more influential afterwards ITTL for a while. If the Rouran had conducted a large campaign ITTL, however, which would be highly unlikely considering that it would be busy consolidating, the states in North China would have most likely allied against the invaders, and neither side would be in a position to score continuous offensive victories given their relative decentralization at the time.

You mentioned that Wei was just lost battle, but was able to retreat. They wasn't small power they was major Nomadic Power, which means they doesn't suffered a lot (being Nomad also helps to retreat with little suffering) . They was rising power which means as energetic as Goguryeo. You just made them disappear which doesn't made sense. By 400 they was already very powerful, they was strongest Nomadic tribe. When they moved to North China, Rouran was able to fill power vacuum, but still not able to beat them.

 

[democracy101]

You mentioned that Wei was just lost battle, but was able to retreat. They wasn't small power they was major Nomadic Power, which means they doesn't suffered a lot (being Nomad also helps to retreat with little suffering) . They was rising power which means as energetic as Goguryeo. You just made them disappear which doesn't made sense. By 400 they was already very powerful, they was strongest Nomadic tribe. When they moved to North China, Rouran was able to fill power vacuum, but still not able to beat them.

The Wei retreated, but they still exist. I never mentioned that they disappeared, but that the Wei's influence is nowhere near that of its counterpart IOTL. The western state needed to borrow troops from the Later Qin in order to fight the Yan, suggesting that it was unable to confront a state on its own around 395. IOTL, the Wei's success at Canhe Slope enabled it to gain influence within the Yellow River, which enabled it to gain resources and manpower in order to confront its neighbors from both sides afterward. However, the Later Qin continued to exist until 417, even though it was attacked continuously by the Rouran, Wei, and the Eastern Jin, suggesting that although the Wei had managed to consolidate its control within the eastern portions, the western portions remained out of reach until its neighbor was finally conquered.

Meanwhile, the Yan was also a nomadic state, so after almost a decade of continual operations into Wei territory, the other states within the alliance would be exhausted from providing troops in order to counter the invasions, and would most likely not be willing to support their eastern neighbor for long if there were no tangible gains. In addition, the fact that the Rouran IOTL were unable to conquer either the Wei nor the Later Qin suggests that it was certainly not in a situation to overrun North China. Also, the Wei IOTL decided to maintain cordial relations with Goguryeo for a century, even though the latter was significantly smaller than its counterpart ITTL, suggesting that the western state would be extremely wary of attacking its eastern neighbor if it had just recently managed to conquer the Later Qin in 417, let alone consolidation.

 

[Rex Mundi]

I've heard Mongolia referred to as Central Asian numerous times.

 

[democracy101]

I've heard Mongolia referred to as Central Asian numerous times.

Same here, but there are different interpretations, and the nomenclature is ultimately a very minor issue.

 

[MonAngel]

The Wei retreated, but they still exist. I never mentioned that they disappeared, but that the Wei's influence is nowhere near that of its counterpart IOTL. The western state needed to borrow troops from the Later Qin in order to fight the Yan, suggesting that it was unable to confront a state on its own around 395. IOTL, the Wei's success at Canhe Slope enabled it to gain influence within the Yellow River, which enabled it to gain resources and manpower in order to confront its neighbors from both sides afterward. However, the Later Qin continued to exist until 417, even though it was attacked continuously by the Rouran, Wei, and the Eastern Jin, suggesting that although the Wei had managed to consolidate its control within the eastern portions, the western portions remained out of reach until its neighbor was finally conquered.

Wei didn't need Yellow river basin to gain some man power. They was very strong and since they could beat Rouran's, their cavalry is very formidable, I say most strong at the moment.
I didn't find any historical source that Wei got military assistance from Later Qin, which that time was almost at chaos.

At Canhe Slop Battle, Wei was attacker and Yan was defender. Which means Wei was rising and Yan was surviving.

 

[democracy101]

Wei didn't need Yellow river basin to gain some man power. They was very strong and since they could beat Rouran's, their cavalry is very formidable, I say most strong at the moment.
I didn't find any historical source that Wei got military assistance from Later Qin, which that time was almost at chaos.

So why was the Wei able to only gather 20,000-30,000 troops when attacking the Yan during the battle, who had up to 100,000? The Wei was heavily outnumbered when both attacking and defending, which was why they were forced to continually retreat earlier in 395 when the Yan initially invaded, instead of confronting them directly. In terms of the battle itself, here's a passage from the Zizhi Tongjian, which Wikipedia relied heavily upon, and provides the troop numbers and specific events:

燕軍至參合陂，有大風，黑氣如堤，自軍後來，臨覆軍上。沙門支曇猛言於寶曰：「風氣暴迅，魏兵將至之候，宜遣兵御之。」寶以去魏軍已遠，笑而不應。曇猛固 請不已，麟怒曰：「以殿下神武，師徒之盛，足以橫行沙漠，索虜何敢遠來！而曇猛妄言驚眾，當斬以徇！」曇猛泣曰：「苻氏以百萬之師，敗於淮南，正由恃眾輕 敵，不信天道故也！」司徒德勸寶從曇猛言，寶乃遣麟帥騎三萬居軍後以備非常。麟以曇猛赤妄，縱騎遊獵，不肯設備。寶遣騎還詗魏兵，騎和十餘里，即解鞍寢。
魏軍晨夜兼行，乙酉，暮，至參合陂西。燕軍在陂東，營於蟠羊山南水上。魏王珪夜部分諸將，掩覆燕軍，士卒銜枚束馬口潛進。丙戌，日出，魏軍登山，下臨燕 營。燕軍將東引，顧見之，士卒大驚擾亂。珪縱兵擊之，燕兵走赴水，人馬相騰，躡壓溺死者以萬數。略陽公遵以兵邀其前，燕兵四五萬人，一時放仗斂手就禽，其 遺迸去者不過數千人，太子寶等皆單騎僅免。殺燕右僕陳留悼王紹，生禽魯陽王倭奴、桂林王道成、濟陰公尹國等文武將吏數千人，兵甲糧貨以巨萬計。道成，垂之 弟子也。

And here's a passage indicating that the Wei relied on its neighbors even after the battle in order to maintain an offensive position:

五月，辛亥，以范陽王德為都督冀、兗、青、徐、荊、豫六州諸軍事、車騎大將軍、冀州牧，鎮鄴；遼西王農為都督並、雍、益、梁、秦、涼六州諸軍事、并州牧， 鎮晉陽。又以安定王庫辱官偉為太師，夫餘王為太傅。甲寅，以趙王麟領尚書左僕射，高陽王隆領右僕射，長樂公盛為司隸校尉，宜都王鳳為冀州刺史。

In other words, the Wei was nowhere near a position to assume a dominant stance until it first scored a decisive victory over the Yan, then take over the rest of North China after vanquishing the Later Qin. These events occurred in 395 and 417 IOTL, respectively, so a different outcome in the first battle ITTL would butterfly these results away.

At Canhe Slop Battle, Wei was attacker and Yan was defender. Which means Wei was rising and Yan was surviving.

This essentially means nothing in context of the battles as a whole. The Yan was on the offensive for most of that year, and Murong Bao only retreated on November 23 due to adverse weather, not because he was suffering significant losses against the Wei. In addition, Tuoba Gui was forced to entice the Yan into retreating by capturing its messengers and forcing to lie that Murong Chui had passed away, as he was hoping to hold out until the invaders were forced to retreat. The battle at Canhe Slope was a large gamble by Tuoba Gui in the hopes that Murong Bao would be caught unprepared, which succeeded IOTL, and he was forced to slaughter most of the Yan forces who had surrendered, which outnumbered his total forces, suggesting that he had nowhere near the capability to equip and support troops that were originally not under his control.

To sum up, the Wei's decision to attack the Yan was essentially a huge risk that could have easily gone the other way, instead of part of several battles and/or campaigns which the latter had continuously lost, causing a gradual power shift over time. In fact, Murong Chui conducted another campaign in 396 into Wei territory, and won several battles, along with killing Tuoba Qian. In other words, if the Wei had suffered a loss on Canhe Slope due to Murong Bao's preparation beforehand, then the Yan would retain control over its possessions, and the Wei would no longer be in a position to regain the offensive until Goguryeo would eventually interfere.

 

[MonAngel]

So why was the Wei able to only gather 20,000-30,000 troops when attacking the Yan during the battle, who had up to 100,000? The Wei was heavily outnumbered when both attacking and defending, which was why they were forced to continually retreat earlier in 395 when the Yan initially invaded, instead of confronting them directly. In terms of the battle itself, here's a passage from the Zizhi Tongjian, which Wikipedia relied heavily upon, and provides the troop numbers and specific events:.

Nomads never outnumbered the Chinese, they had just superior cavalry. Chingiss could occupy Hwarezm with only 100K troops while they had at least 450K.
And nomads always had more cavalry, while Chinese troops was more spread in they cities.

To sum up, the Wei's decision to attack the Yan was essentially a huge risk that could have easily gone the other way, instead of part of several battles and/or campaigns which the latter had continuously lost, causing a gradual power shift over time. In fact, Murong Chui conducted another campaign in 396 into Wei territory, and won several battles, along with killing Tuoba Qian. In other words, if the Wei had suffered a loss on Canhe Slope due to Murong Bao's preparation beforehand, then the Yan would retain control over its possessions, and the Wei would no longer be in a position to regain the offensive until Goguryeo would eventually interfere.

Seems you are not very familar with Central Asian history and their military tactic. You just take it from Korean or Chinese point of view.

 

[democracy101]

Nomads never outnumbered the Chinese, they had just superior cavalry. Chingiss could occupy Hwarezm with only 100K troops while they had at least 450K.
And nomads always had more cavalry, while Chinese troops was more spread in they cities.

Seems you are not very familar with Central Asian history and their military tactic. You just take it from Korean or Chinese point of view.

These points really don't apply when Goguryeo, the Former/Later Yan, Dai/Northern Wei, Former/Later Qin, Rouran, and Beili, along with other states in North China, were all founded by nomads who frequently shifted their capitals, utilized highly mobile cavalry during battles, and temporarily retreated to another base after initial losses. All of them frequently raided their neighbors in order to gain more resources, as they mostly concentrated on building up a strong military, while neglecting other aspects until they had consolidated significantly. Within any given battle, one side might have outnumbered the other, but until one side decisively dealt several blows which permanently weakened its opponent, there was no clear outcome. For example, the Yan had a slight possibility of countering the Wei after 395, given how it conducted another campaign in 396, but the massive slaughter of troops at Canhe Slope, along with Murong Bao's succession in that same year, and three rulers from 398-401, all destabilized the state and weakened it over time. From a geopolitical viewpoint, the Wei did not conduct enough troops in 395 to take over most of the Yellow River by 396, as the Yan eventually counterattacked, but allowed the cities within the disputed area to eventually side with the Wei after the Yan lost many of its troops and began to undergo political turmoil soon afterward.

 

[MonAngel]

These points really don't apply when Goguryeo, the Former/Later Yan, Dai/Northern Wei, Former/Later Qin, Rouran, and Beili, along with other states in North China, were all founded by nomads who frequently shifted their capitals, utilized highly mobile cavalry during battles, and temporarily retreated to another base after initial losses. All of them frequently raided their neighbors in order to gain more resources, as they mostly concentrated on building up a strong military, while neglecting other aspects until they had consolidated significantly. Within any given battle, one side might have outnumbered the other, but until one side decisively dealt several blows which permanently weakened its opponent, there was no clear outcome. For example, the Yan had a slight possibility of countering the Wei after 395, given how it conducted another campaign in 396, but the massive slaughter of troops at Canhe Slope, along with Murong Bao's succession in that same year, and three rulers from 398-401, all destabilized the state and weakened it over time. From a geopolitical viewpoint, the Wei did not conduct enough troops in 395 to take over most of the Yellow River by 396, as the Yan eventually counterattacked, but allowed the cities within the disputed area to eventually side with the Wei after the Yan lost many of its troops and began to undergo political turmoil soon afterward.

What I'm saying is Touba Wei was real Nomads, not like assimilated fake Nomads. What history tought us is, when nomads adopt Chinese culture they cavalry become very weak.
Jurchen Jin Dynasty's once strong Iron Cavalry was inadept after they adopted Chinese culture. Same was Mongolian strong cavalry when Yuan Dynasty established. And same is true about Manchu Qing military. So once you conquer China and sit there your military no longer strong as once it was.

My point is Wei rise was inevitable after 395. In order to stop rise of Wei
1. You need to make Later Qin strong and keep Wei as their vassal. But it is impossible since Qin was crumbling after late 380.
2. You need to make Rouran win Wei around 390. Then Wei will no longer exist and will be assimilated to some of lesser Chinese Kingdoms. Rouran will go back to their steppe. - IMO it is most plausible scenario.

Battle of Canhe Slop won't hinder Wei's rise period between 390 to 410. It is inevitable. Battle of Canhe Slop wasn't main trigger for the rise of Touba Wei. It was fall of the Later Qin and victory against Rouran that made Wei's rise inevitable.

I'M NOT SUGGESTING you to change your ITTL. I'm just giving my 2 cents.

 

[MonAngel]

Also one thing.
From military point of view conquering North China from Manchuria is very difficult. Only path is through Shanghai Pass. It is very well defended and fortified Pass. Manchu's couldn't overcome defense of Shanghai Pass until defending Ming General defected to Qing side.
So if power controlling Shanghai pass is strong it is almost impossible. So I suggest you make Yan more weak.

 

[democracy101]

We can talk about this forever, but your statements haven't been very convincing as a whole, and I need to post an update later, so this will be my last response for a while.

What I'm saying is Touba Wei was real Nomads, not like assimilated fake Nomads. What history tought us is, when nomads adopt Chinese culture they cavalry become very weak.
Jurchen Jin Dynasty's once strong Iron Cavalry was inadept after they adopted Chinese culture. Same was Mongolian strong cavalry when Yuan Dynasty established. And same is true about Manchu Qing military. So once you conquer China and sit there your military no longer strong as once it was.

I'm usually wary of any statements containing the words "real" and "fake" when distinguishing similar concepts, because they imply definitive concepts, which technically do not exist except in very rare circumstances. Anyway, it takes decades, if not centuries, for the way of life of a certain state to drastically change over time. Both the Yan and Wei, along with their predecessors, had established themselves within North China for almost a century, suggesting that integration was somewhat significant for both sides. However, both the Later Yan and Northern Wei were founded after the Former Qin's collapse in 383, while the conflict at Canhe Slope occurred only 12 years later, which suggests that they had reincorporated nomadic tactics in order to reestablish a standing army. In other words, both the Yan and Wei would have been able to rely heavily upon efficient cavalries until the former began to disintegrate between 396 and 401 due to severe political conflicts regarding succession issues, along with extensive military purges.

My point is Wei rise was inevitable after 395. In order to stop rise of Wei
1. You need to make Later Qin strong and keep Wei as their vassal. But it is impossible since Qin was crumbling after late 380.
2. You need to make Rouran win Wei around 390. ThenWei will stop exist. Rouran will go back to their steppe.

But Battle Canhe Slop won't hinder Wei's rise period between 390 to 410. It is inevitable. Battle of Canhe Slop wasn't main trigger for the rise of Touba Wei. It was fall of the Later Qin and victory against Rouran that made Wei's rise inevitable.

There's a huge difference between the ability to defend against foreign invaders and attacking other states. For example, Goguryeo was able to defend itself against the Sui and Tang for 70 years, but if it had attempted to extend further into China, it would have eventually been decisively defeated and left open to invasion.

Anyway, although the Wei had won several battles by 399, neither the Wei nor Rouran were in a position to conduct offensive maneuvers in order to destroy the other's ability to fight, which was why the conflicts between the two lasted for around a century and a half. In addition, the Later Qin was in a strong position to influence its neighbors well into 409, as it either vassalized or conquered most of them, while the Wei was unable to destroy it until 417. In other words, the Later Qin maintained a strong offensive position until 409, while the government remained mostly intact until 414. As a result, even though the Wei had significantly consolidated its territory around the Yellow River IOTL after 398, it was not in a strong position to expand significantly further until the Qin's political collapse allowed it to exploit the advantage.

I'M NOT SUGGESTING you to change your ITTL. I'm just giving my 2 cents.

That's fine. I'm usually open to constructive criticism.

Also one thing.
From military point of view conquering North China from Manchuria is very difficult. Only path is through Shanghai Pass. It is very well defended and fortified Pass. Manchu's couldn't overcome defense of Shanghai Pass until defending Ming General defected to Qing side.
So if power controlling Shanghai pass is strong it is almost impossible. So I suggest you make Yan more weak.

I'll look into it, and I'm assuming you mean Shanhai, not "Shanghai," which was not founded until centuries later. However, the Yan was extremely unstable during this time due to several rulers taking the throne within a few years, causing political turmoil, not to mention that there were numerous defections of generals to Goguryeo ITTL due to extensive purges. In addition, one of the attack routes included heading to Shandong by sea, so the defenders would have to split up their forces when making preparations beforehand. I also stated that it took months to finally subdue the Yan, so that should explain any potential issues that Goguryeo would have when invading.

 

[MonAngel]

You are just having too much Patriotism and Homerism. That's why you don't see thing as whole but just from Korean point of view and just forcing the TL rather than make them happen.
So maybe I wasted the time just for nothing. I just wanted to make your TL more realistic, but if you just force and rely only your Korean source then that is also fine. It just make your TL less credible.

I'm usually wary of any statements containing the words "real" and "fake" when distinguishing similar concepts, because they imply definitive concepts, which technically do not exist except in very rare circumstances. Anyway, it takes decades, if not centuries, for the way of life of a certain state to drastically change over time. Both the Yan and Wei, along with their predecessors, had established themselves within North China for almost a century, suggesting that integration was somewhat significant for both sides. However, both the Later Yan and Northern Wei were founded after the Former Qin's collapse in 383, while the conflict at Canhe Slope occurred only 12 years later, which suggests that they had reincorporated nomadic tactics in order to reestablish a standing army. In other words, both the Yan and Wei would have been able to rely heavily upon efficient cavalries until the former began to disintegrate between 396 and 401 due to severe political conflicts regarding succession issues, along with extensive military purges.

I'm telling you again, your information about Nomads is not accurate. And you are just relying some biased information.
Wei was Nomads around 400, while Yan was no longer nomads. Because Wei was vassal tribe, while Yan became already ruling Chinese Dynasty.

 

[democracy101]

I'll respond relatively briefly.

You are just having too much Patriotism and Homerism. That's why you don't see thing as whole but just from Korean point of view and just forcing the TL rather than make them happen.
So maybe I wasted the time just for nothing. I just wanted to make your TL more realistic, but if you just force and rely only your Korean source then that is also fine. It just make your TL less credible.

I'M NOT SUGGESTING you to change your ITTL. I'm just giving my 2 cents.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say here. On the one hand, you're basically asking me to make significant changes, which will severely delay my updates for months, not to mention that I still have to do more research for events after 420. However, you're basically telling me to generally keep the timeline as is, which is essentially impossible if I need to make widespread changes. I certainly see where you're coming from, and any constructive criticism is appreciated, but I've been consistently telling you that there are multiple ways to approaching issues, so there is no "definitive" answer. In other words, please try to write up an extensive timeline first, while responding to criticism from various angles in order to fully understand the situation that writers are stuck with, before attempting to expect any widespread changes to be virtually made at the same time.

In addition, you're far from the first to provide extensive criticism, and you will certainly not be the last. I also know it hasn't been been long since you first joined, but please try to change your mentality significantly before making further posts here or elsewhere. There's a huge difference between providing criticism to writers and doing the same to those who ask a simple question in order to further explore a scenario, as the former has done much more extensive research and actively posted the results. In addition, I've relied on various Korean and Chinese sources, of which the former extensively relied on the latter, which are much more detailed in scope.

I'm telling you again, your information about Nomads is not accurate. And you are just relying some biased information.
Wei was Nomads around 400, while Yan was no longer nomads. Because Wei was vassal tribe, while Yan became already ruling Chinese Dynasty.

Yes, but this also assumes that any Chinese state will be eventually conquered by more powerful nomads, which simply isn't true. For relative examples, the Han held out for more than two centuries against the Xiongnu, even while having a negligible cavalry, while the Tang managed to conquer many of the Gokturks possessions even after it had significantly integrated into Chinese society beforehand. The Wei also held out for more than a century against the Rouran, even though the former had essentially integrated itself into Chinese culture and mindsets in many respects by then, while its northern neighbor remained nomadic. My point is that after considering the complex geopolitics within the area, not to mention the possibility of political instability after significant defeats, the situation is liable to change drastically at any time, so nothing is set in stone.

EDIT: Also, I have yet to see you cite any sources, while I have done so extensively within this thread, which suggests to me that you're making numerous claims with minimal, if any, evidence to back them up. In fact, I did further research, which suggests that the Yan was highly crucial in the Wei's rise to power from 386-91, as both allied with each other in order to attack the Western Yan, so both needed each other for support. In addition, Tuoba Gui had already begun to consider establishing a stable aristocracy and change succession laws, while Murong Chui had no such plans, suggesting that the former had already started to assimilate into Chinese society. Also, as I stated earlier, the Wei consistently suffered from defeats until 395 due to Murong Chui's tactics, and it was not until political instability raged from 396-401 that the Wei was finally able to gain the advantage and seize territory around the Yellow River by 399. All of these details can be found in the Zizhi Tongjian.

 

[MonAngel]

I'll respond relatively briefly.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say here. On the one hand, you're basically asking me to make significant changes, which will severely delay my updates for months, not to mention that I still have to do more research for events after 420. However, you're basically telling me to generally keep the timeline as is, which is essentially impossible if I need to make widespread changes. I certainly see where you're coming from, and any constructive criticism is appreciated, but I've been consistently telling you that there are multiple ways to approaching issues, so there is no "definitive" answer. In other words, please try to write up an extensive timeline first, while responding to criticism from various angles in order to fully understand the situation that writers are stuck with, before attempting to expect any widespread changes to be virtually made at the same time.

What basically I'm saying is you need to understand Nomad psychology and they dynamic. Many misunderstand that Nomads need Chinese resources to become powerful. But it is not true.
What made Wei's rise inevitable is POWER VACUUM. First, fall of Later Qin, victory against Rouran (main nomad rival) and fall of Yan that made Wei hegemon of North China. (which I understand how your ATL is developing)

Yes, but this also assumes that any Chinese state will be eventually conquered by more powerful nomads, which simply isn't true. For relative examples, the Han held out for more than two centuries against the Xiongnu, even while having a negligible cavalry, while the Tang managed to conquer many of the Gokturks possessions even after it had significantly integrated into Chinese society beforehand. The Wei also held out for more than a century against the Rouran, even though the former had essentially integrated itself into Chinese culture and mindsets in many respects by then, while its northern neighbor remained nomadic. My point is that after considering the complex geopolitics within the area, not to mention the possibility of political instability after significant defeats, the situation is liable to change drastically at any time, so nothing is set in stone.

I agree with you on this. Without internal problem no one can conquer China. Even Mongol Empire conquest was successful because China was divided and ruled by foreign ruler.

EDIT: Also, I have yet to see you cite any sources, while I have done so extensively within this thread, which suggests to me that you're making numerous claims with minimal, if any, evidence to back them up. In fact, I did further research, which suggests that the Yan was highly crucial in the Wei's rise to power from 386-91, as both allied with each other in order to attack the Western Yan, so both needed each other for support. In addition, Tuoba Gui had already begun to consider establishing a stable aristocracy and change succession laws, while Murong Chui had no such plans, suggesting that the former had already started to assimilate into Chinese society. Also, as I stated earlier, the Wei consistently suffered from defeats until 395 due to Murong Chui's tactics, and it was not until political instability raged from 396-401 that the Wei was finally able to gain the advantage and seize territory around the Yellow River by 399. All of these details can be found in the Zizhi Tongjian.

IOTL Wei was very strong they could unify North China.
I'm just saying it is impossible to make them just sit without doing nothing whole decade, while in North China existed Power Vacuum.

My apologize if I'm reacting to aggressively. To be honest I want to Gogureyo stayed strong as long as possible. Stronger Korea better future for Mongolia.

 

[WhatIsAUserName]

This is a bit of an aside (I have no intentions about getting into a giant debate over real nomads and the conquest of China) but I have a few questions about this bit ...

And here's a passage indicating that the Wei relied on its neighbors even after the battle in order to maintain an offensive position:

五月，辛亥，以范陽王德為都督冀、兗、青、徐、荊、豫六州諸軍事、車騎大將軍、冀州牧，鎮鄴；遼西王農為都督並、雍、益、梁、秦、涼六州諸軍事、并州牧， 鎮晉陽。又以安定王庫辱官偉為太師，夫餘王為太傅。甲寅，以趙王麟領尚書左僕射，高陽王隆領右僕射，長樂公盛為司隸校尉，宜都王鳳為冀州刺史。

What neighbors are you referring to? I'm reading this over and over and all I see (and a bit of research confirms this) are references to Yan princes, one Yan general, and the Fuyu (or Puyo, but this is a Chinese text). I don't remember too much about Wei allies, but I'm not sure this relates to the Wei at all.

 

[democracy101]

I need to work more on my update after posting this, so I would appreciate it if any criticism is presented afterwards. General comments are certainly welcome, though.

What basically I'm saying is you need to understand Nomad psychology and they dynamic. Many misunderstand that Nomads need Chinese resources to become powerful. But it is not true.
What made Wei's rise inevitable is POWER VACUUM. First, fall of Later Qin, victory against Rouran (main nomad rival) and fall of Yan that made Wei hegemon of North China. (which I understand how your ATL is developing)

I understand your point about nomadic tactics, but the Wei was founded by nomads, although it was located in North China, so it was technically neither nomadic nor sedentary. It also had some territory in the desert/steppes as well, but so did the Yan at the time, and most of the population was located in the south and composed of Han Chinese, while the government and military were in the process of reorganization in 391 to adopt Chinese structures. In addition, the Wei initially needed to constantly ally with its neighbors, namely the Later Yan and Later Qin, in order to confront other states, so its presence was probably not as stable IOTL until 397-9 or so.

This was why I thought that a Yan victory at Canhe Slope would mean that it would retain more manpower to use in further campaigns, and would severely hinder the Wei from consolidation until after 417, as opposed to 398-9 IOTL. Also, Goguryeo would take a much more active stance in confronting the Yan, eventually seizing more territory by 407 and retaining it after 410. As a result, considering that the Wei left the former alone even in IOTL, and that it would need to go through a major restructuring in order to solidify its gains ITTL, the state would probably not be in a position to conduct major offensive operations until around 440-50, which I will cover much later.

IOTL Wei was very strong they could unify North China.
I'm just saying it is impossible to make them just sit without doing nothing whole decade, while in North China existed Power Vacuum.

Well, I tried to make the situation as different from OTL as I possibly could, so I hope you understand. My reasoning was that the Wei needed to consolidate between 398 and 417 IOTL, as the Later Qin remained strong until around 409-14, and although it unified North China in 439, the fact that the western states held out for so long suggests that the Wei preferred an indirect approach to control for a while. In other words, if the Wei cannot consolidate before 417 ITTL due to the Yan's consistent attacks, along with the resulting civil war, it's situation would be much less stable than that of the one IOTL. In addition, it would neighbor two powerful nomadic states to the north and east, along with a unified South China and holdouts in the west, so it will take several decades for the state to reinforce its grip in the region, which would first need to recover.

My apologize if I'm reacting to aggressively. To be honest I want to Gogureyo stayed strong as long as possible. Stronger Korea better future for Mongolia.

That's fine. I just wanted for you to understand my situation as well, and I'll try to take your points into consideration.

This is a bit of an aside (I have no intentions about getting into a giant debate over real nomads and the conquest of China) but I have a few questions about this bit ...

[passage]

What neighbors are you referring to? I'm reading this over and over and all I see (and a bit of research confirms this) are references to Yan princes, one Yan general, and the Fuyu (or Puyo, but this is a Chinese text). I don't remember too much about Wei allies, but I'm not sure this relates to the Wei at all.

You're probably right, and I think I quoted the wrong passage. I was probably misled by the "秦" and assumed it referred to the (Later) Qin. The general points that I presented earlier concerning aid from other states is in the text somewhere, though, although I need to look through volumes to find it.

 

[WhatIsAUserName]

You're probably right, and I think I quoted the wrong passage. I was probably misled by the "秦" and assumed it referred to the (Later) Qin. The general points that I presented earlier concerning aid from other states is in the text somewhere, though, although I need to look through volumes to find it.

I just did Ctrl + F on Wikisource and I think I do know what you're talking about:

秦興遣楊佛嵩將兵救魏. 燕術士靳安言於太子寶曰 "天時不利, 燕必大敗, 速去可免." 寶不聽.

This is the part you were looking for indicating Qin's involvement with Wei: "[Yao] Xing of Qin dispatched Yang Fosong so troops could rescue Wei." However, this is regarding assistance before the battle, and there are references latter in the same volume (#108) to Qin/Yan clashes, but I don't know if they're the specific instances of Wei's reliance on Qin that you're looking for.

The rest is the story mentioned in Wikipedia: "The Yan sorceror Jin An said to Crown Prince [Murong] Bao 'The heavenly time is not propitious, and Yan will certainly be defeated. Quickly leave if you can find an escape.' [Murong] Bao didn't listen." Changing this would be a detail to give your point-of-divergence a more poetical air.

 

[democracy101]

I just did Ctrl + F on Wikisource and I think I do know what you're talking about:

[passage]

This is the part you were looking for indicating Qin's involvement with Wei: "[Yao] Xing of Qin dispatched Yang Fosong so troops could rescue Wei." However, this is regarding assistance before the battle, and there are references latter in the same volume (#108) to Qin/Yan clashes, but I don't know if they're the specific instances of Wei's reliance on Qin that you're looking for.

The rest is the story mentioned in Wikipedia: "The Yan sorceror Jin An said to Crown Prince [Murong] Bao 'The heavenly time is not propitious, and Yan will certainly be defeated. Quickly leave if you can find an escape.' [Murong] Bao didn't listen." Changing this would be a detail to give your point-of-divergence a more poetical air.

That's perfect. Thank you. I also used Ctrl + F on Wikisource as well, but I was initially unsure on which passages to use, so that probably contributed to the confusion. There might be other passages which talk about the aid from the Qin after the battle as well, but the one that you presented will certainly suffice for the discussion.

Adding more details to the PoD also seems like a good idea, but it's been over a month since I posted that update, so I can't edit it. I'm also trying to flesh out the timeline until as much as I possibly can before deciding on another revision a few years later, as the different aspects haven't significantly accumulated yet for another rehaul.

What basically I'm saying is you need to understand Nomad psychology and they dynamic.

. . .

I'm just saying it is impossible to make them just sit without doing nothing whole decade, while in North China existed Power Vacuum.

I'm essentially responding twice to the same post, which I rarely do, but it's because I did some more research in between. IOTL, Murong Chui continued to maintain the offensive into 396, but Tuoba Gui soon responded by counterattacking later in the same year, after Murong Bao took power. However, the situation was much more disadvantageous for the Yan because the loss of 50,000 severely demoralized the army as a whole, causing it to eventually retreat, while the cities near the border began to side with the Wei as a result of the battle. ITTL, though, if the battle had gone the other way, then Tuoba Gui would have been much more cautious afterward, as he would assume that he would have misjudged Murong Bao's tactics, and the border cities would not be willing to side with the Wei when the Yan still remains around 100,000 strong.

 

[MonAngel]

@ democracy

Looking forward your further development.

one last opinion: I think you could do Gogureyo more maritime power. It will help you to hold Chinese proper more longer. If you want some idea maybe Hanseatic League can be good model. Gogureyo can dominate Liao river basin while uniting Shanding and Hebei via trade-economic bond. Gogureyo can be Hanseatic league of Yellow sea. Maybe you can change Chinese coastal culture more influenced by Gogureyo while mainland will remain Chinese...

 

[democracy101]

@ democracy

Looking forward your further development.

one last opinion: I think you could do Gogureyo more maritime power. It will help you to hold Chinese proper more longer. If you want some idea maybe Hanseatic League can be good model. Gogureyo can dominate Liao river basin while uniting Shanding and Hebei via trade-economic bond. Gogureyo can be Hanseatic league of Yellow sea. Maybe you can change Chinese coastal culture more influenced by Gogureyo while mainland will remain Chinese...

I'll think about it, although the Hanseatic League isn't exactly a good comparison, as it covered the coastline of various states politically independent from one another, while Goguryeo will have control over all of the territory surrounding the Yellow Sea. In general, the trade within the cities covered ITTL shouldn't be significantly different from that of IOTL. However, it will be hard to provide specific details thoroughly because cultural records concerning Goguryeo and/or Baekje, not to mention the other peninsular states, are extremely sparse, while other states in North China, such as the Northern Wei, which were located inland, did not place significant emphasis on coastal trading routes.

In addition, I did some research on Shanhai Pass (which was called Linyu before the Ming was founded), and realized that it wouldn't have made much of a difference around 390-410. The Han had previously refortified the Great Wall (which extended into what is now North Korea) in order to maintain a defensive border against the Xiongnu, but it was constructed from rammed earth, and the structure as a whole was largely ignored after the latter was eventually defeated in 89 AD. It was not until the Northern Wei had unified North China that another defensive structure was constructed once more, and although different ones located in various regions continued to be built afterward until the Ming, various nomads from both Mongolia and Manchuria continued to cross the boundary and conduct numerous raids south of it, suggesting that many areas were vulnerable.

In terms of the actual conflicts that occurred IOTL during the time period in question, the Book of Jin states that Goguryeo conquered the Yan Commandery in 403/4, while the Gwanggaeto Stele states that 6 fortresses in Yan territory were conquered in 407, and a tomb mural constructed by Goguryeo states that the state established a governor in Youzhou, who died in 408. These details as a whole suggest that Goguryeo temporarily managed to seize territory roughly corresponding to what is now Hebei and Beijing, both of which are located west of the pass that you mentioned, so the fortification itself was probably not particularly efficient as a whole, if it existed during that time.