Japan’s growing power was a threat to American interests. As noted before, China’s economy was growing quickly and because of China’s affluence, a massive new consumer market of some 400 million people had emerged. America was a very large industrial power with an enormous consumer based industry which explains the enormous amount of exports to China. American investment in China increased substantially in the post-war years regardless of allegiances elsewhere; it was nothing more than profit hunting, but it had profound political effects too and caused yet another shift in commercial patterns. Because of America’s internal problems regarding the integration of the former Confederate states, an isolationist ‘America First’ President known as Johnson won the elections of 1920, making him the first isolationist in quite some time. He installed stiff tariffs to protect American markets from cheap products coming from Europe and Japan. The Germans, Italians, Spanish, Ottomans and Hungarians responded in kind by forming an economic block with free trade and traffic of capital, people and services between members of this ‘Continental Alliance’ as it was known which was also a military alliance. To the outside world, on the other hand, they also maintained high tariffs, effectively closing European markets to many countries. Besides Germany, Italy, the Ottoman Empire, Spain and Hungary-Croatia-Romania, Serbia, Belgium, Sweden-Norway, the Baltic States, Poland and the Ukraine were members although the ‘Big Five’ were dominant. The Netherlands and Denmark remained neutral while France was an unwilling client, unwilling, but also unable to break free. The distancing between the Continental Alliance and its Japanese allies on one side and the Americans on the other seems odd, but reality was that irredentist factors had driven America to seek their help. America fully dominated the western hemisphere and competed heavily for markets with the Europeans all over the world. Japan added a political and military factor to this since the spheres of influence of the two great empires on the Pacific clashed in the middle and Japan was building up a navy that could dominate the Pacific Ocean. A naval race between the Empire of Japan and the United States ensued in the latter half of the 1910s. Japan was also at odds with China where America had plenty markets and investments. US-Japanese competition for markets as well as dominance in the political and military sense in the Pacific led to estrangement.
The Alliance weakened until it was only a mere piece of paper since the European half continued its support for Japan. Washington DC therefore sought to strengthen ties with Beijing and, by extension, London and St. Petersburg. Britain had been eliminated as a threat in the Americas and didn’t interfere with US interests anymore which applied to Russia as well. Russia’s interests were far from the Americas; rather, Russia wanted to restore its power in eastern Europe, the Balkans and Persia. The British saw the Canadians as cowards or traitors for their surrender and the Canadians saw the British as fools, starting a war against Canadian interests. Enmity there was big and so Britain would rather concentrate on the restoration of its formerly prestigious African and Asian empires. Also, in both countries, the generation that had fought in the Southern War of Independence (or Secession, also known as the Third Anglo-American War) was slowly dying off. Many saw America being whole again as a fait accompli; while Britain still held some grudges over the loss of its American possessions, ever regaining them was unrealistic and thus they gave up on Canada. The Americans also tried to coerce Paris, but came to the realization that France was too much under the thumb of Berlin, Rome and Madrid. Due to mutual interests, Washington, Beijing, St. Petersburg and London grew into a new Entente.
In the defeated countries, things were not going so well as they could not revel in victory and could not enjoy in the post-war affluence of continental Europe, Japan and America. France was burdened with severe war reparations although these were wholly justified considering this was the third war that the French had launched against its immediate neighbours. France had been definitively neutered due to these war reparations, the massive loss of territory accompanied by losses of at least a third of France’s industrial base and the crippling limitations on France’s armed forces which Germany, Italy and Spain strictly enforced. France sank into an economic depression as the new republican regime resorted to printing more money to able to afford paying the war indemnities which led to rising inflation and a drop in value of France’s currency which led to the German accusation that France was doing it purposefully to dodge war reparations. France’s unemployment levels soared to over ten percent of the entire population which was worsened by the mass demobilization of French soldiers who returned to civilian life as well as immigration from Frenchmen now living in Italy, Spain or Germany to rump-France as they didn’t want to live under the yoke of the Alliance powers. Due to the devaluation of the franc, purchasing power in France dropped radically which led to a dramatic drop in the sales of consumer products and this was followed by mass discharges. Besides this, many French soldiers traumatized by the war also didn’t really succeed in reintegrating into society whereas in Germany, large social programs had been set up specifically to tend to the needs of war veterans. The lower middle class and the low classes in French society slipped into poverty and this enormous mass of unemployed, disgruntled soldiers, factory workers and former middle class citizens such as clerks, civil, store owners and low civil servants formed a hotbed of both extreme right and extreme left ideologies as their rhetoric struck a chord, leading to the politicization of these millions of people, leading to widespread fear of coup or Marxist revolution. Especially the Marxist splinter of the socialists were popular since extreme right had been reduced as a factor due to its association with the Boulangist regime that had led to France’s downfall in the first place.
The Marxist party grew in size massively and quickly and in 1917, they staged a revolution as the price of bread had increased yet again. Many people were unable to buy enough food, fuel and clothes or pay the rent of their houses which led to widespread discontent among these now homeless people who were dependent on charity, a far cry from their pre-war social status in many cases. The Marxists promised bread and work and an end to social inequity by breaking the rich, capitalist bourgeoisie and the aristocracy who generally didn’t feel the effects of the economy as much if they felt them at all. Bread riots in Paris and several other large industrial cities in northern France were the start and soon many hundreds of thousands took to the streets and started looting. Red banners were raised and the Marxists and their supporters undertook a march to Paris, but fortunately the army remained loyal as a bulwark of conservatism. Even so, the army was only 75.000 strong with nothing more than rifles and machine guns, weapons that the Red militias also had. These militias also had a number of disgruntled veterans among them who could provide some military expertise to what was essentially a horde of about 120.000 people ranging from peasants to clerks and teachers. The government evacuated to Bordeaux while mobilizing its own militias of loyalist veterans who still adhered to the Boulangist legacy while also instating martial law, installing curfew and suspending the constitution. Barricades were erected in Paris and vicious street battles took place; France was descending into anarchy and civil war. Germany and its allies feared that this violence would expand across the border to their own French minorities and therefore announced a partial mobilization of their armed forces. The German army invaded northern France while a Hispano-Italian force invaded the south and together these professional forces managed to squash the Red Threat. This didn’t lead to an improvement in relations since the French populace didn’t want enemy forces policing their country although Berlin, Rome and Madrid promised to spread war reparations. In the Treaty of Geneva, war reparations were set to end in 1975 instead of 1945 and Germany, Italy and Spain promised economic aid (because they didn’t want a Marxist anti-imperialist, anti-capitalist France on their borders which could stir up sedition in their colonies). The French economy started to show signs of recovery as the stagnation ended in 1918 and a small growth could be detected in 1919. Relations with the Alliance powers remained cordial at best, but their second defeat in under fifty years time made it clear that France simply could not win. France would slowly creep out of the dark years of 1916-1918 and very reluctantly settle for the position of junior partner in Germany’s continental hegemony, vowing neutrality in any future wars for France’s own sake.
Britain was doing relatively well economically since their economy was not burdened by such heavy war reparations as France, but British prestige was hurt. The once mighty British Empire had been reduced to almost nothing and the nationalist sentiments of many British were upset. Only India, Australia, New Zealand and Madagascar remained as some shreds of lost glory that Britain clung onto. Besides this, the Royal Navy that had once ruled the waves was reduced to a second-class force. Britain sought ways to regain its former power although it seemed that with France permanently ground into the dust and Russia turning inward to sort out its own problems, that was impossible as Britain would be facing the entire European continent in any war. Furthermore, unrest was brewing in India which was clamouring for more autonomy or even Dominion status. Britain saw potential in India’s massive numbers and resources; India had more than enough natural resources as well as a population of between 300 and 400 million people which had massive production potential and could also serve as soldiers. Britain acquiesced to Indian demands. India was given Dominion status with full autonomy in internal affairs such as education, judicial matters, economic policy, religion and so on while London retained foreign policy and national defence under its wing. India could do what it wanted internally and formed a constitutional democracy with a parliamentary system based on the Westminster model and with Leopold I, the reigning British monarch, as Emperor of India. He would be one of the longest reigning monarchs in British history with a reign spanning from 1916 to 1970, not much shorter than the reign of Queen Victoria herself. Britain, in a move of desperation, would do what no other colonial power did which was to modernize its colonies, in this case India. Britain assisted India in setting up an educational system akin to the British model while supporting the progressives who were against the caste system which had held back India’s development back for so long. A problem that arose was the position of the Muslim and white minorities. Especially the former had problems with living in a Hindu dominated India and so they were given regional autonomy and their own parliaments in Baluchistan and Bengal. Britain tried to develop India as an industrial power to draw men and resources from as well as to oppose Alliance dominance in the Indian Ocean and the Middle East. India was already a major producer of agricultural products like rice, wheat and potatoes. Natural resources of India include coal, iron ore, manganese, titanium, mica, chromite and bauxite. Thanks to Britain seeing the necessity of using Indian potential and power, food processing industries arose, but steel, chemicals, transportation equipment, textiles, cement and heavy machinery were also rising industrial sectors. Like in China, modernization wouldn’t change India into a powerhouse overnight; rather it would be a slow process with many hurdles along the way. Educational reform reached the rural populace much slower than city residents living in for example Bombay or New Delhi and a rising indigenous Indian elite would exploit the many illiterates and other low class people as cheap labour. Arguably, low wages sped up industrialization as this reduced costs with the result that in the period 1918-1928 factories, hydroelectric plants, coal fired power plants, railroads and solid roads popped up like weeds at the expense of a growing proletariat that dwelled in the city slums. Slowly, but surely, however, the reform reached them as they were all offered education. They realized the enormous political power they could exert through their numerical superiority over the elites and so the rulers of India were forced to grant them concessions such as an eleven hour workday and a minimum wage, commonplace in western countries, but less so in a rising India. Britain invested heavily in India and soon entirely Indian-trained soldiers entered the British Army which expanded in size quickly.
Militarily, Britain also evolved: its navy was limited to a 2:1 ratio in capital ships with the Germans and a 14 inch (356 mm) maximum gun calibre. Certain British admirals saw the potential of naval aviation with the enormous advances in aeronautics of the preceding twenty years. Capital ships were ill-defined by the victorious Germans as battleships and battlecruisers. Britain responded by converting unfinished battlecruiser and battleship hulls to so-called aircraft carriers which were disparaged by most Alliance naval minds as second-class vessels. The result was that by 1930, Britain would possess the largest, best trained, best equipped, best led and most experienced naval aviation force in the world.
In Russia, the liberal tendencies of before the war were reversed by the rise of influential rightwing parties in Russia’s political spectrum. Russia was experiencing uprisings from its minorities all over as they wanted autonomy if not independence; the unrest was crushed by returning Russian troops, but revolutionary movements took over several cities in western and southern Russia and Red banners rose here too. Marxism, however, was rather alien to the rural population who remained more loyal to the Tsar as the collectivization plans of the Marxists terrified the farmers who by now were mostly middle class and no longer poor peasants. Russian troops quickly and brutally stamped out who they perceived to be unpatriotic, disloyal traitors and executed the leaders. By 1917, the so-called ‘revolution’ had ended and Russia could begin to gear up for the next, inevitable conflict. Germany had made the mistake of leaving too much fighting strength in a very disgruntled Russian Empire.
The rightwing parties argued that Russia had not been defeated in the field by enemy forces; rather, the home front had given up hope on the eve of victory, leading to a Russian surrender. The National-Solidarist Party under the infamous firebrand Vladimir Petrenkov blamed Russia’s minorities for weakening Russia as well as leftwing sedition, incompetence of the old elites, the Jews and various other groups. They propagated extreme Russian nationalism exalting Russian values such as loyalty patriotism and the strength of the Russian people which would be fully mobilized with the single goal of restoring the glory and power of the Russian power as well as uniting with Russia’s Slavic brethren in the Balkans, part of wider Slavic nationalism. Part of this were support for the Russian Orthodox Church against Islam and Judaism which were seen as destabilizing and disloyal elements, anti-capitalism, anti-liberalism, anti-Marxism, anti-feminism (as part of ‘traditional values’) and riding on a platform of revenge against the Germans and restoration of Russian glory; the party was therefore very militaristic and totalitarian. They had no problems with beating up or even killing their opponents such as the liberals and social-democrats although they refrained from touching the nobles to avoid a backlash against them from the conservative armed forces. For this purpose, they made use of their Blue Shirt militias. Their party program further advocated a highly centralized one party state, one charismatic leader in the shape of Petrenkov, radical modernization and industrialization of all of Russia by removing the influence of the aristocracy as well as the internationalist Marxists. The party was very much against giving autonomy to Russia’s minorities and had some anti-Semitic tendencies to its rhetoric. In their foreign policy plans, they advocated a continuation of the alliance with the Chinese Empire, a nation arguably stronger than even Russia at this point. Their plans for further exploitation of Russia’s resources and manpower and their fierce opposition to social-democracy and Marxism earned them support from the bourgeoisie. Economic problems as well as rising nationalism among the minorities led to an increase in support from the Russian populace.
The party’s nationalist rhetoric appealed to broad segments of the Russian populace and it isn’t surprising they won the 1928 elections to establish their totalitarian dictatorship. The opposition was silenced, the press censored and all other political parties outlawed. They started to subsidize certain key industries and introduced the Three Year Plans in which set goals were to be attained. The first plan had the goal of restoring pre-war production levels. Russia’s St. Petersburg-Moscow industrial areas were expanded upon while the Urals industrial area, far from Germany and its allies, was given main priority. Kazakhstan’s enormous industrial resources as well as its landmass were utilized to create new enormous industrial centres. Central Asia had massive reserves of petroleum, natural gas, coal, iron ore, bauxite, silver, gold and so on as well as land for agricultural production. Many Russians migrated to Central Asia due to the explosion in economic activity there. By 1931, the plan had achieved its goals and the second Third Year Plan (1931-1934) further increased production levels in vital sectors such as steel, coal, the petrochemical sector, armaments and grain while an infrastructure was created from scratch. In six years, the network of roads and railroads in Central Asia had quintupled in length. The cost in human life, however, was high. The National-Solidarist regime crushed minorities and many were deported to do unpaid, forced labour, building infrastructure, power plants and factories in barren condition. A horrific example are the nickel mines above the arctic circle where Russia controlled 30% of the planet’s nickel. No one in his right mind wanted to work here and so Petrenkov used political prisoners and deported minorities as slaves. Russian propaganda extolled the enormous increases in production achieved (for example a doubling of coal and steel production, a 10% surplus of grain over state quotas, the completion of a certain railroad etc.), but failed to mention the hundreds of thousands of dead nor the pogroms of Jews that were quietly allowed or even stimulated by Petrenkov’s regime. This process of breakneck speed rebuilding and industrialization and modernization was supported by Russia’s former enemy the US with investments and machinery. The cost was nonetheless high for the peoples living in Russia. Nevertheless, a sense of optimism gripped Russia, confident of victory. Culturally, Russia was turning into a very xenophobic, oppressive and militaristic society which was signified by the outlawing of ‘modernist art’ among other things. Pogroms and Jews were not stopped as Jews became second-class citizens even more than they already had been under Tsarist rule. The same applied to many other minorities. It seemed that modernization and victory in the next war came at a price that the Russians were unfortunately willing to pay.
The Third Great War as it was known would commence in 1937 after an incident in the Balkans that the Russians immediately exploited. In June 1937, Ottoman Sultan Mehmet VIII was assassinated by a Bulgarian extremist nationalist. He was arrested and publicly executed by hanging, but the Ottomans went further as the Sultan’s son wanted vengeance. They revoked Bulgaria’s status of autonomous principality and instated martial law in Bulgaria. The Ottoman army went on a rampage through Bulgaria to look for an alleged terrorist network supported by Russia. Accusations between Constantinople and St. Petersburg came and went as the Ottoman army commanded by the new Sultan Mehmet IX carried out thousands of summary executions while many Muslim soldiers raped Bulgarian women. The Russian Tsar Alexander IV, the son of Michael II, demanded that the Porte ceased and desisted. The new Sultan, still hungry for revenge, bluntly told the Russians to mind their own business. On August 1st 1937, the Russians declared war. The Alliance powers quickly joined the Ottomans’ side and so Beijing, London and Washington were quick to declare war when they had the opportunity.
