Could Japan have obtained influence, markets and access to raw matierals in China without invasion and the appalling war crimes of OTL.
Could they have created an Indonesian pupet state in the Dutch East Indies if the Netherlands were still invaded in WW2?
A possible POV about this would have to occur when the
Gunjin Chokuyu (the Imperial Rescript to Soldiers and Sailors) was released by the government of the Meiji Emperor in 1882. Certain elements of the Rescript -- especially when it came to the idea of soldiers getting involved in politics -- WERE included in the text but eventually never enforced (hence the situation of Tôjô Hideki going from a senior position of the IJA straight to the Prime Minister's office).
Atop that, there was a part of an earlier draft that demanded that the IJA and IJN be subordinated to civilian control. That never made it to the final Rescript.
If the civilian control of the military clause did get into the Rescript
and ALL the elements of the Rescript were properly enforced in the wake of its promulgation -- say if not doing so would displease the Emperor as it was the Son of Heaven himself who issued the Rescript -- then, IMO, the militarist movement would have probably lost a lot of its initial power in the late 1920s and 1930s.
Yes, things like the occupation of Korea and Taiwan might have been unavoidable -- Japan wanting to be the equal of any of the Western powers, of course -- but events after that would, I believe, have gone quite differently.