A Lenin-less World

[Hnau]

A Lenin-less World​

Vladimir Lenin was a man who lived and breathed revolution. What if he was never born? What if the Ulyanov family in Simbirsk, Russia, never produced such a passionate, ambitious individual? Lenin was working towards his brand of socialism from the very beginning, splitting the Russian Social Democratic Labour Party in half only a couple years after he had entered into its ranks. There he found the loyalty of radicals and zealots, the very people who later would lead to the deaths of millions, in fanatic honor for a utopian ideology. Communism was indeed fabricated by Vladimir Lenin, even Marx himself hadn’t imagined in his lifetime how such a society would work in the real world. After his famed sealed train ride across the German Empire, Lenin arrived in Petrograd and within months united the squabbling socialist factions into a fighting force that would dominate world concerns for the next seventy years. Could anyone imagine at the beginning of the 20th century that one man could transform an aging despotic empire, populated by ignorant nobles and subsidence farmers, into a power that would bring panic to every corner of the globe? Adolf Hitler may have held the attention of world leaders for a decade, and Albert Einstein might have changed the lives of the scientific community forever, but Vladimir Lenin’s legacy painted the 20th Century red. What color might have these last 100 years been painted with, if his chance prominence had never been?​

 

[Tobit]

If this is simply the trailor of a timeline that is already written, then I apologize for volunteering an answer before I see yours; but your underneath your name it says reply to the thread so I will.

I think the century will still be painted red. Because even without the Bolshevik rise to power the Socialist idea was already entrenched in the Duma. And I believe that Socialists were in power when the Bolshviks pushed them out in 1917. Will the flag look exactly like it did OTL maybe not but the Tsar will not last.

 

[Hnau]

We enter into the timeline at the second quarter of the year 1917, the year when things really start to change. Vladimir Lenin hasn’t been, and there are definitely some consequences for his non-existence. However, I believe that time has something of a momentum to it… I don’t do butterflies. Not to say that there aren’t butterflies, just that they are of so little consequence that they don’t really matter on a world scale. So an insect dies in this timeline somewhere around the world, its not going to make someone decide to start a war or cause a hurricane in a place where there wasn’t one originally, really know. Anyway, that’s my theory and I’m sticking to it.

Now that that’s out of the way: let’s see the divergences of the Lenin-less World from our own by this point, 1917 Q2.

- Vladimir Lenin’s pre-1917 life affected only one historical event of note: the development of the Russian Social Democratic Labor Party. After entering the RSDLP in 1900, in three years he had stolen the radical half of its membership and shaped it into the Bolshevik faction. Without his influence, without What Is To Be Done?, the party remains much more unified. Julius Martov becomes the undisputed leader of the RSDLP, and without Lenin’s philosophical foundation, radical leftists within the Party are pulled towards the center. The more united organization can afford more expensive congresses, attracts more members, and is slightly more powerful than OTL, but is much less radical.

- Nevertheless, there is the emergence of Alexander Bogdanov. In OTL, he joined the Bolshevik faction in 1903 and even challenged Lenin for its leadership in 1906. A majority supported him in mid-1908, but after Vladimir Lenin published a criticizing book, Materialism and Empiriocriticism, Bogdanov was defeated and expelled from the party. In this timeline, Alexander Bogdanov is able to provide the philosophical understanding the leftists of the RSDLP found in Lenin in OTL. By 1906 he is heading a large leftist faction in the RSDLP. The Bogdanovists (known ITTL as Mensheviks as well, the minority) are different from the Bolsheviks in OTL. Lenin accused Bogdanov of being an idealist and he certainly was, this leads to less of a membership and less radicals, being more centrist. The Bogdanovists consist of the more utopian, scientific, pacifistic members of the RSDLP Left, and though they push to recall their representatives from the State Duma, they aren’t daring enough to split from the RSDLP.

- Alexander Bogdanov retires from politics by 1913 to pursue scientific interests. Leadership of the Bogdanovists in the RSDLP is left in the hands of a Lunacharsky-Pokrovsky-Gorky troika and weakens slightly.

- By 1917 the only real difference in the world is the RSDLP. The Social Democrats are more unified, slightly more powerful, and have slightly more members and reputation than in OTL. They have less radical leftists and, due to Alexander Bogdanov’s influence, a more scientific, pacifist, idealistic bent, which continues to drive radicals to either move to the center or leave the party. Some people are in a higher place of power than they were in OTL, such as Nikolai Bukharin (he would have done better under the Bogdanovists), while some are lower than they were in the power structure (such as Josef Stalin, who benefited greatly from Stalin’s friendship in OTL).

- The February Revolution goes off without a hitch. The major events are all the same. There are different people running around, with different speeches being made, all due to the much-diverged Social-Democrats. The end effect is virtually identical: the Romanovs are overthrown, and the Provisional Government under Prince Georgy Lvov is established.

And that’s about it. Nearly fifty years after the original divergence, not much is different. Three years into the Great War, the offensives and mass casualties are only different when you look at it all very closely. Lenin didn’t affect the world much until after he assumed control of the former Russian Empire. It's in this slightly divergent world that the timeline begins.

 

[Hnau]

1917 Second Quarter

- April 1: The autonomous province of Estonia is established by the Provisional Government of Russia.

- April 6: The United States declares war on Germany.

- April 20: Street protests in Petrograd and Moscow led by Yakov Sverdlov and his radical leftist faction, the Left-SDs, causes Julius Martov and other RSDLP leaders to move towards making concessions towards the Provisional Government in order to escape blame.

- [Divergent] April: There are no April Theses written by Vladimir Lenin. The RSDLP and other revolutionary parties in Petrograd, Moscow and elsewhere are not unified under a strong opposition to the Provisional Government. Josef Stalin, Lev Kamenev and other prominent leaders continue their moderate stance: cooperation with the liberals and socialists in the Provisional Government, continued Russian involvement in the war. The idea of revolutionary defensism continues to grow more popular, instead of being interrupted by the sudden introduction of revolutionary defeatism which has gone un-championed.

- June 23: Ukrainian autonomy is ratified by the Provisional Government of Russia.

 

[Hnau]

1917 Third Quarter

- July 1: The Kerensky Offensive begins. The Russian Army is weak: the Petrograd Soviet has given “soldier’s committees” a mandate over their officers, the death penalty was abolished, and revolutionary agitators were allowed on the front. However, as defeatism has not gained such a following as it did in OTL, morale is in the end, much better.

- July 18: The Russian Army is in a retreat from a counter-attack.

- July 20: Alexander Kerensky becomes premier of the Russian Provisional Government.

- July 20-23: Russian lines hold against the counter-attack. In some areas, soldiers even managed to gain a few miles.

- July 24: Premier Kerensky spins the news of the Offensive as a lukewarm victory, highlighting that Russia had remained able to defend her country. While the July Days never happen, there is one day of rioting in Petrograd which is put down with little consequence. Kerensky and his generals agree that another Russian offensive would ruin them: they must hold the line and keep the Allies patient and hope for a swift end to the war.

- [Factual] July: The Finland Senate passes the “Power Act”, to substantially increase the power of Parliament and restrict Russia’s influence on domestic Finnish affairs. Kerensky vetoes the Power Act and responds by sending soldiers and dissolving the parliament, announcing new elections to be held next October.

- August: There is never a “Kornilov Plot”. With no horrible riots in Petrograd during the July Days, General Lavr Kornilov has less reason to imagine there is a rebellion to be put down. There is better communication between Kerensky and Kornilov, and no act of treason ever occurs.

- September 1: Germany begins a siege of Riga. The Russian defenders, with such low morale, surrendered immediately in OTL. ITTL, there is less defeatism, and the Kerensky Offensive isn’t a fiasco: Riga holds and remains Russian for the winter.

- [Factual] September: The Armenian National Congress, though it hasn’t declared independence, is established to organize war efforts against the Ottoman Empire, after the abandonment of the Caucasus Front. They train soldiers, collect old Russian arms and supplies, and organize into armies.

 

[Hnau]

1917 Fourth Quarter

- October 6: Riga falls to a German offensive.

- October 17: The Petrograd Soviet to vote down the resolution to create a Military Defense Committee to direct the arming of the populace of Petrograd. Mensheviks and SRs in OTL opposed this, and ITTL, more of the RSDLP votes as Mensheviks would, and there is no upwelling of Bolshevik support due to the absence of Lenin.

- October: The Finnish parliamentary elections conclude with the Social Democrats having lost their absolute majority.

- November 14-19: The Finnish Social Democrats launch a general strike for an eight-hour workday, higher wages and universal suffrage. It receives approval from Julius Martov.

- November 18: The Kornilov Reforms gives more power over the military to General Lavr Kornilov, dissolves the soldiers’ committees, and removes political agitators from the front. By this point, the Provisional Government has adopted the philosophy of revolutionary defensism, that is, no more offensive, and the creation of a ‘Line of Steel and Fire’ to prevent any German offensive until the end of the war.

- November 20: Municipal elections in the Petrograd Soviet reveals that the RSDLP have taken a third of the votes, a 50 percent increase in the last six months. A rise in the number of seats for the Left-SDs convinces Yakov Sverdlov that the time is right for a revolution.

- November 22: Peaceful manifestation of 75,000 in the Petrograd city center. It does not lead to violence, but does encourage Sverdlov that violent revolution will be successful due to the lack of a response. Leon Trotsky pleads with him to rejoin the RSDLP. The successful demonstration leads to the Left-SDs dominating newly-revitalized smaller soviets, which had only existed on paper for the last few months.

- November 23 – The socialist autonomous government of Ukraine declares the autonomous Ukrainian Republic.

- December 10 – A local nationalist group, the Alash Orda, established an autonomous government in Kazakhstan, within the Russian Republic.

- December 25 – The National Diet of Bessarabia declares the Moldavian Democratic Republic, as part of a Russian Federation.

 

[Faeelin]

Interesting; so, this is a summation of your old TL?

 

[Hnau]

There will be differences, mainly in the fact that Austria-Hungary won't throw in the towel so soon. Didn't seem plausible. It will also continue from here. I like this format better than the Faux-Wikipedia one.

 

[Hnau]

1918 First Quarter

- January 20: Julius Martov uses recent increases in his power to establish a second All-Russian Congress of Soviets. The Ispolkom denounced the Congress due to only 3 out of 160 soldiers’ or workers’ soviets expressing support.

- January-February: In Finland, Conservative paramilitary groups known as the White Guards clash with their Social Democrat counterparts, the Workers' Security Guards, in Tampere, Helsinki and Turku. Only the most radical socialists participate in the terror campaign. Violence appears in other townships and cities across Finland for a brief period of time but not to the same extent. Russian soldiers are brought into active duty in cities across Finland to put down the violence. The insurrection and following crackdown leads to nearly 700 deaths across the country. The event becomes known as the 'Finnish Rebellion'. In the end, the Finnish government becomes indebted to the Russian military, which quiets their appeals for greater power within the new Russian Republic for a period of time. The Finnish socialists also pull more to the centre following public condemnation of their party for harboring such terrorists.

This results in the survival of 1.2% of the population of Finland ITTL.

- February 1: The Provisional Government under Premier Kerensky declares that a Constituent Assembly election is to be held at the end of the month. Socialists throughout the Provisional Government set out to discredit the Petrograd Soviet’s authority.

- February 4: In reaction to the declaration of a Constituent Assembly, Yakov Sverdlov and the Left-SDs organize massive armed demonstrations in Petrograd calling for the overthrow of the Provisional Government and recognition of the supremacy of the Soviet. Hundreds of thousands march on the headquarters of the Petrograd Soviet, and in the ensuing clashes with other groups many are killed.

- February 8: Alexander Kerensky orders the arrest of the Left-SDs and the other leaders of the protests. General Kornilov retakes the city with military force. Yakov Sverdlov is thrown into jail.

- February 9-23: The Germans launch the first operation in their Spring Offensive against the Russians in the southern Eastern Front. This is a diversionary tactic, and the Germans only take as much territory as they would have in the OTL Kerensky Offensive.

- February 11: After the “January Days”, the Social Democrats seek to rebuild their reputation, leading Julius Martov and Leon Trotsky to sign with Alexander Kerensky a Writ of Supremacy which dissolves the Petrograd Soviet. Martov and Trotsky begin planning on building the RSDLP within that framework.

- February 14: A peaceful protest in Petrograd by Soviet-loyalists turns into a defeatist riot that is put down by the military.

- February 15-25: The Austro-Hungarians conquer the rest of Romania.

- February 22: The Russian Constituent Assembly is held on the anniversary of the February Revolution. The Socialist-Revolutionary Party takes 51% of the vote, a bare majority only when counting the independent Ukrainian SRs. The RSDLP takes second place with 23% of the vote, and the Constitutional Democratic Party at a distant third with 6% of the vote. Delegates are to convene in a month at Petrograd.

- February 26-March 12: The Germans launch another offensive into the Baltics, towards Petrograd. With the Russians concentrated on the south, the Germans are able to take the rest of Latvia and Estonia, threatening Petrograd.

- March 28: The Ludendorff Offensive is launched on the Western Front. There are a number of differences: the Germans are less confident in Hutier infiltration tactics, but there are more soldiers, as half a million men that would have been busy occupying the Ukraine are free to fight. The beginning of the Offensive is seven days later than OTL, but the end result is very much the same, all differences are balanced out somehow. I believe it is within plausibility that the conclusion of the Spring Offensive isn’t divergent enough from OTL to warrant a more detailed description.

- March 30: The Constituent Assembly meets in the Tauride Palace in Petrograd. Victor Chernov, the leader of the Socialist-Revolutionaries, is elected Chairman by more than 100 votes.

 

[DrakonFin]

- January 16: The Finnish Senate and Parliament decides to create a strong police authority, a step towards legalizing the White Guards. Indeed, the White Guards become the Finnish White Army, which soon absorbs the Finnish Army into its structure.

A nitpick: the Finnish Army, such as it was during the autonomy, had been disbanded between 1901-1905.

- February: The Finnish White Army with the support of Russian soldiers have cracked down on cities with Red unrest, leaving smoldering rebellions in Kouvola, Viipuri, and Turku, while a Helsinki Workers’ Soviet remains in revolt.

- March: An offensive into Helsinki places the city back under the legitimate Finnish government. The White Terror begins in Finland, which leads to the political executions of nearly 6,000 people. The Finnish Uprising, as it is called, ends with a total of close to 12,000 deaths, a significant percentage of the population. This is much less than the 37,000 deaths of OTL during the Finnish Civil War, namely because the Reds didn’t receive help from the Bolsheviks which was crucial in convincing the less radical affiliated members to fight. Russia remains in control of Finland, with the government significantly indebted to them for the aid.

I still think the disturbances you posit happening in Finland, even in this form, are probably excessive. OTL, the Reds were armed by Lenin et al. from St. Petersburg (the Rahja brothers and their "Great Gun Train" playing an important role) and by taking arms from the depots of the disintegrating Russian units. ATL there is no weapons coming from either of these sources as the Russian units are presumably less disintegrated (?) and support only the White side.

I could see Socialist insurrections in some towns, say Tampere, Helsinki and Turku, but with a more timid leadership, less support and very lightly armed, they should be easily quelled. It is quite possible their actions would be so indecisive that the takeover of Helsinki would not happen at all. "The Uprising" could well fizzle out with minimal bloodshed, only hundreds killed and executed in the whole of the country. This is indeed what happened OTL in parts of northern Finland, say, in Kuopio, where the Reds were too weak to even try to grab power in earnest.

What is the legal status of Finland and the Finnish White army in your scenario, vis a vis Russia? Does the Constitutient Assembly and its leaders recognise that Finland has a right to its own army as a part of Russia?

Do the Finnish Jägers in Germany exist in your scenario, and if they do, what happens to them?

 

[Hnau]

Thanks for the advice, I'll edit the Finnish revolt.

Do the Finnish Jägers in Germany exist in your scenario, and if they do, what happens to them?

Certainly, however, they are going to remain fighting on the northern Eastern Front. The Germans only released the White-affiliated Jägers when the civil war started. I doubt there will be those who'll want to join the Reds, as weak as they are, in fighting for independence. No civil war, no use of the Jägers. After the war I can see many living in Germany or moving back to Finland where they might move the Whites towards a more pro-independence stance. What do you think?

 

[Hnau]

1918 Second Quarter

- April 1: The Law on the Land is passed, decreeing an abolition of landed proprietorship and the redistribution of the landed estates amongst the peasantry. Uyezd Assemblies of Peasant’s Plenipotentiaries and volost land committees are established to distribute all such property. Also, Russia adopts the Gregorian calendar, gaining 14 days.

- April 2: The Constituent Assembly passes a law declaring the Democratic Federal Republic of Russia (RDFR).

- April 5: The Constituent Assembly sends peace-feelers to Britain, France, the United States of America, and the German Empire. “Russia desires peace without annexations or indemnities.”

- April 8: Eager to move forces to the Western Front, the Germans move the Central Powers to agree to an armistice with Russia. Meeting in Brest-Litovsk, the German position is the cession of all Russian territories under German control: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, parts of White Russia and the Ukraine. Victor Chernov is able to concede areas held by Germany before 1917, but attempts to negotiate over as much border territory as possible.

- May 18: The Treaty of Brest-Litovsk is signed, ceding Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland to German military command. Territory including Ardahan, Batum, and Kars is ceded to the Ottoman Empire.

- May 20-June 21: Ottoman soldiers push into Russian territory ceded to them, though they face resistance from Armenian militias.

- May 24-25: The Armenian National Congress, in reaction to the surrender of their lands to the Turks, declares independence as the Democratic Republic of Armenia. A day later they declare war against the Ottoman Empire.

- May: The Republic of the Northern Caucasus is established under the RDFR framework when a pro-independence Shamilite faction begins inciting small-scale riots.

- May: Their involvement in the Great War concluded, Chairman Chernov allows all soldiers to return to their homes, save a skeleton crew on the Eastern Front for self-defense. This leads to much wrangling in the Assembly over when and how to pay soldiers. Otherwise the Chernov government turns to social issues. The military command, however, consisting of many conservative and pro-war generals, is thrown into turmoil. Many do not want to oppose the democratically-elected government, but they do want a chance to bring Russia to a more conservative state. General Lavr Kornilov and General Anton Denikin resign from the military to organize a pro-war, revanchist, conservative political group in Moscow. Admiral Aleksandr Kolchak, an absolute supporter of the Allied cause against Germany, leaves with a small faction of his to organize a Russian Volunteer Army to fight in Mesopotamia against the Ottoman Empire. General Pyotr Wrangel retires to the Crimea: there he becomes the center of one of the most active Russian monarchist groups, who begins pushing strongly from the liberation of the Romanov family from house arrest. Many monarchists gather around heir apparent Grand Duke Michael of Russia, who is staunchly against taking the throne unless the people vote in favor for it.

- June 15: Commisar Grigory Semyonov, leading a military district in the Far East around the Vladivostok-Transbaikal region, turns against the Chernov government and stirs up an anti-socialist rebellion. He is defeated and retreats to Manchuria.

- June 20: The Czechoslovak Legion, number 70,000 soldiers, reaches Vladivostok after a long voyage across the Trans-Siberian Railway. There they pile into Allied ships for transport to France.

- June 29: The government of France formally acknowledges the right of Czechs and Slovaks to independence, a reward for the services of the French Czechoslovak Legion.

- June: The Ottoman Army begins an offensive against the Democratic Armenian Republic. There is much confusion over which territory is Armenian or Russian, especially since the entire Caucasus is virtually devoid of Russian soldiers, being controlled by ethnic militias. The Transcaucasian Committee notifies Petrograd about both Armenian independence and Ottoman aggression. The Chernov government fears renewal of hostilities against all the Central Powers if he declares war against the Ottoman Empire. The declaration of independence is rejected by Petrograd, and soldiers sent down to the Caucasus in case the rest of the Caucasus breaks away. Anti-Ottoman units from Azerbaijan, Georgia and Russia arrive in Armenia to join volunteer armies.

 

[DrakonFin]

Certainly, however, they are going to remain fighting on the northern Eastern Front. The Germans only released the White-affiliated Jägers when the civil war started. I doubt there will be those who'll want to join the Reds, as weak as they are, in fighting for independence. No civil war, no use of the Jägers. After the war I can see many living in Germany or moving back to Finland where they might move the Whites towards a more pro-independence stance. What do you think?

That is pretty plausible. If you like the idea, the Jägers that stay in Germany could form the nucleus of a Finnish pro-independence diaspora, strenghtened slowly with people again slipping away from Finland to join them in the next years, secretly sponsored by the German government in hope for a future possibility to foment unrest in the Russian lands.

While the radical left has been put down in Finland and a national tragedy averted, the co-existence of the (White) Civil Guards and the Russian troops makes for an interesting situation. The Russians would be suspicious towards the Guards, and certainly a part of the Guard members would be pro-independence. With a majority of even the moderate Social Democrats actually condoning their actions, they could gain a strong following in the coming years and form a focus of nationalist sentiment.

Unless Russia finds a way of either legitimising these troops and putting them under a formal chain of command, or, alternately, tricking them into disarming peacefully (which would be hard), this setup might spell trouble for Finland in the coming years.

I guess this all leaves you a few openings to use Finland as a background for future developments, in the Russian Federal Republic as well as for the Russian-German relations.

Keep up the good work!

 

[Faeelin]

Interesting; poor Poland, in the ATL.

 

[Hnau]

Poland's definitely going to get less than OTL, I don't see Russia forfeiting to them that much territory, especially when they have less enemies and a stronger military.

@ DrakonFinn - I could see the White Civil Guards being put into legitimate military service, much as the Czechoslovakian Legion was as an ethno-national unit under Russian command. Good note about the Jagers, I don't see any reason why that wouldn't be exactly what would happen.

 

[Hnau]

1918 Third Quarter

- July 10: The Ottoman Army occupies Erevan, the central authority of the Democratic Republic of Armenia, and surrounding territory. They continue to push into Nagorno-Karabakh, which is Armenian but uncontrolled by the pro-independence government. This causes panic in Azerbaijan, which fears an Ottoman advance.

- July 14: Chairman Victor Chernov finally claims that the Ottoman Empire is invalidating the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, and declares renewed hostilities against them and the secessionist Armenians. At the same time, communications are opened up with Germany: Russia desires the German Empire to push the Turks into ceasing military operations in the Caucasus, and at the same time professes peace between the two countries. The peace has lasted less than two months.

- July 15: Political assassination of the German ambassador to Russia, Count Wilhelm Mirbach, by pro-war terrorists who hope Germany will respond with a renewal of hostilities. Chairman Chernov apologizes on behalf of his country. Mirbach was central in negotiations to keep peace with Germany; his assassination at this time alerts the upper levels of the German military to the possibility of continued war against Russia. Ultimately this will come to nothing, as Germany is already facing a resurgent Allied force on the Western Front.

- July 16: The Russian military engages the Ottoman Army in Batum. The Ottoman Empire declares war the same day against the Russian Republic.

- July 20: General Aleksandr Kolchak, motivated by the renewed Russo-Ottoman war, calls on British units, extremely lackluster during the summer, to march on Mosul.

- July 21: The Ottomans have conquered Nagorno-Karabakh. At this point, the majority of the army begins pulling back to defend Batum, Ardahan and Kars.

- July 22: Batum is taken by the Russian Army. The Russians turn towards taking Ardahan more inland.

- July 25: End of the Ludendorff Offensive. The Germans have captured the most territory on the Western Front in a single offensive than they have during the entire war, owing mainly to new Hutier tactics and the use of stormtroopers.

- July 28: When the British under Sir William Marshall on the Mesopotamian Front are unable to be aroused to engage in an offensive against the Ottomans, General Kolchak pulls his 9,000-man Russian Volunteer Army to Persia, where they are shipped by train and truck to Baku.

- July: Anarchist-nationalist movement in Ukraine under the ‘Black Guards’ becomes a nuisance to Russian and Ukrainian authorities. A few thousand of these radicals have established a terrorist campaign that draws the attention of Petrograd.

- August 1: General Kolchak takes command of the Azerbaijani-Armenian militia and the Russian Army in the Baku region.

- August 6-21: Kolchak leads a mixed army of Russian troopers, his own experienced Volunteer Army, and local militia in taking back Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia. The offensive quickly forces a retreat of Ottoman defenders. By the end of the offensive, Kolchak is building up his forces to retake Erevan.

- August 8: The Allies begin a general offensive on the Western Front.

- August 15: 4,000 Allied troops occupy Archangelsk, in North Russia, where Allied war materiel is confiscated and the port protected. This cools relations quite a bit: the biggest problem isn’t that Russia has left the war. That was perfectly legal, though many don’t like it. The problem is that the Chernov government refuses to pay back loans made before the February Revolution. This is fine for the Americans, who only started lending to the Russians after the fall of the Tsar, but the Europeans are concerned with the massive payments they expected from Russia after the war. Re-starting the Eastern Front is hopeless, though, without any concentrated opposition force in Russia… and the Russian government is democratically-elected. Instead, the Allies occupy Archangelsk in protest against the Assembly’s economic actions. A similar operation, headed by the Americans and the Japanese, occupy Vladivostok.

- August 20: An assassination attempt by a radical Social Democrat on Chairman Victor Chernov’s life fails.

- August 25: Despite the departure of many Azerbaijani militias, Kolchak’s makeshift army is reinforced by multiple Russian divisions. An order from Petrograd establishes General Kolchak as the head of the Caucasian Front. He leaves for Tiflis to assume military command.

- August: Grigory Semyonov and Roman Ungern von Sternberg have become successful warlords, attacking supply trains from the Trans-Siberian railway and distinguishing themselves for extreme cruelty against the local population.

- August: “Spanish Flu” influenza becomes pandemic; over twenty-five million people die in the following six months.

- September 4: The Russian Army, a majority consisting of former Armenian militia, begins an offensive against Ardahan and Erevan.

- September 7: Erevan falls to the Russian Army. At the same time, secessionist Armenian forces are compromised. Self-autonomy is promised to Armenia, as well as Azerbaijan, Georgia, and the North Caucasus. The leadership of the Democratic Republic of Armenia is largely re-organized into the Federative Armenian Committee.

- September 15: Ardahan falls to the Russians.

- September 19: Kars is surrendered to the Russian Army. The Russian-Armenian forces begin to push into Western Armenia, reclaiming land surrendered in the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk.

- September 21: The Ottoman Empire capitulates to the Allies with the signing of the Armistice of Moudros. This is a month and nine days earlier than OTL due to the victories in the Caucasian Front being replaced with hostile Russians pushing back into Western Armenia, as well as increased pressure in Mesopotamia due to divergences caused by Kolchak’s presence there.

- September 23: The Armistice of Eleskirt is signed between the Russians and the Ottomans on the same grounds as the Armistice of Mudros. The Turks are forced to retreat outside of Western Armenia, which is to be occupied by the Russian Army due to a “threat to national security”.

- September 25: The Supreme Command in Germany informs the Kaiser that the military situation is hopeless. This is four days earlier than OTL.

- September 27: Bulgaria signs an armistice with the Allied Powers. A four-day republican uprising consumes the country. It will have little effect other than forcing Tsar Ferdinand out of the country. His son, Boris III, succeeds him. This is all factual, only a day earlier.

- September 29: Kaiser Wilhelm II appoints Prince Maximilian of Baden the new Imperial Chancellor.

- September 30: The Baden government offers to negotiate with the Allies for an end to the war.

 

[Hnau]

A giant enters the war of the pygmies...

1918 Fourth Quarter

- October 1: The German public is informed about the dismal situation of Germany in the war.

- October 2: Austro-Hungarian Foreign Minister Baron Istvan Rajecz requests an armistice based on the Fourteen Points.

- October 2: King Ferdinand of Bulgaria abdicates and is succeeded by his son, Boris III.

- October 3-4: A French brigade enters Istanbul to begin its occupation. The first British troops enter a day later.

- October 4: To demonstrate good faith, Karl I issues a proclamation transforming Austria into a federal union. The Poles and Ukrainians in Galicia are granted full independence.

- October 5: The Chrysanthemum Revolution in Budapest thrusts Mihaly Karolyi, founder of the oppositional National Council, into the national limelight.

- October 6: The West Ukrainian People’s Republic is proclaimed in former Austrian Galicia.

- October 8: Erich Ludendorff, Supreme Commander of the German military, resigns due to his failure to secure victory for Germany. General Wilhelm Groener succeeds him.

- October 9: The Allies officially throw their support behind the Provisional Government of Czechoslovakia, to the panic of Austria-Hungary.

- October 12: Emperor Karl I names Mihaly Karolyi as the new Prime Minister at the head of a Provisional Government of Austria-Hungary, hoping his progressive reputation and abilities will save the Empire.

- October 15: Austria-Hungary signs an armistice with the Allied Powers, pre-empting a major Italian offensive.

- October 16: A Polish nationalist government takes power in Western Galicia.

- October 18: The State of Slovenes, Croats and Serbs is formed by a National Council of influential politicians at the time.

- October 19-21: The Prague National Committee proclaims the independent republic of Czechoslovakia. Two days later, the Slovak National Council accedes to the proclamation.

- October 19: Ukrainian soldiers occupy Lwow and raise Ukrainian flags throughout the city. It is declared the capital of the West Ukrainian People’s Republic.

- October 20: German Admiral Franz von Hipper, without authorization, orders the dispatch of the fleet for a last battle against the Royal Navy.

- October 22: German sailors refuse to obey the latest naval orders. On board of three ships off Wilhelmshaven, crews refuse to lift anchor. Outright mutiny and sabotage begins.

- October 23: Two torpedo boats point their cannons on mutinous ships, forcing the sailors to surrender. The naval command was scrapped as it was felt the crew could not be depended on. The ships are ordered back to Kiel. While moving through the Kiel Canal, a number of sailors are imprisoned.

- October 23: The Reichstag of Germany approves constitutional changes that change the German Empire to a parliamentary monarchy, giving supreme command to the Imperial Government.

- October 24: Emperor Karl I issues a proclamation relinquishing his participation in the administration of the state, and recognizing the people’s right to determine the form of the state they lived in.

- October 25: Carpatho-Ruthenia declares independence.

- October 25: The Czechoslovak Legion arrives in Rome after four months of sailing on the ocean. They are moved to Veneto where they request peaceful passage to Czechoslovakia, which Austria has an interest in delaying.

- October 25: The 1918 Constitution of the Russian Democratic Federal Republic (RDFR) is ratified. It establishes a republic with a president for a six-year term, elected by popular vote, as well as a National Assembly of 500 seats to be presided over by a Chairman of the National Assembly. The Federative Republics are considered autonomous for domestic matters, but leave foreign relations to the National Assembly and related organs. Federal law is constitutionally superior to all laws of the federative republics. Victor Chernov becomes the RDFR’s new Federal President, while Vadim Rudnev is quickly elected the new Chairman of the Federal Assembly. The Federative Republics of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarussia, Georgia, Kirghiz, Moldavia, Northern Caucasus, and the Ukraine are all expected to elect presidents next February.

- October 25: Ethnic German territories of Austria, known as German Austria, is declared a democratic republic.

- October 26: Sailors’ calls for a large meeting in Kiel in order to mobilize for the freeing of the imprisoned mutineers are answered by several thousand people with workers’ representatives being present. The gathering moves towards the military prison and are shot at by the prison guards. The demonstration ends, but the sailors and workers become even more impassioned.

- October 27: Groups of mutineers move through the town. With 50,000 revolting sailors, soldiers, and workers, the imprisoned sailors are freed and Kiel is placed under a council-republic. ITTL, with no requisitioned Ukrainian food, starvation is more rampant throughout the country, causing revolution to catch much more quickly. Delegations of sailors scatter to all larger cities in the country.

- October 28: The People’s Republic of Hungary is declared with Mihaly Karolyi as its Provisional President.

- October 30: The German Revolution has seized all larger coastal cities as well as Hanover, Brunswick, Frankfurt, and Munich. A Workers’ and Soldiers’ council forces the King of Bavaria to abdicate. Kurt Eisner of the Independent Social Democratic Party of Germany (USPD) declares Bavaria a “free state”.

- October 31: Karl Liebknecht of the Spartacist League declares the formation of a Free Socialist Republic of Germany in Berlin. At night, a group of two hundred revolutionaries occupy the Reichstag and form a Revolutionary Parliament.

- October: The Russian Army, having occupied Western Armenia and much of the restless Caucasus, turns on other separatist movements in Federal Republic, including the anarchist-nationalist movement in Ukraine, the Bashkirs, the Tatars, the Kyrgyz, and various Islamist groups. This is regarded as the beginning of the Russian Civil War, though it will be significantly smaller in scale than the conflict of the same name in OTL.

- November 1: The Allies agree to take up negotiations with the German Empire for a truce. The main sticking point is the abdication of Kaiser Wilhelm II, which no one desires to force. Without the violent October Revolution, many do not believe that the current revolution could actually lead to the seizure of the country, and they are more confident that the monarchy can be preserved.

- November 1: Elections for the Revolutionary Parliament take place, along with council meetings. The USPD takes the majority, though the majority of the soldiers’ councils go to the SPD. In OTL, Freidrich Ebert and the SPD were more alarmed at the possibility of violent revolution. He does not deem it necessary to gain SPD dominance. This is a significant divergence from TTL.

- November 3: Prince Maximilian of Baden, as Chancellor of Germany, announces the abdication of the Kaiser without his consent, and resigns in favor of Friedrich Ebert. This is mainly to alleviate revolutionary pressure… however, the revolutionaries continue unabated. Friedrich Ebert secretly calls his friend Wilhelm Groener, giving them free permission to deal with the councils as they will. The army pledges support to Ebert, and Ebert assures them that the military hierarchy will be restored.

- November 3: The Central Romanian Council from Transylvania announces to the Hungarian government that it had assumed control of Transylvania.

- November 4: An armistice is signed between the German Reich and the Allies. The Great War has come to an end. As part of the terms, the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk and the Treaty of Bucharest are renounced. However, on the same day, the British will recognize the independence of all territories occupied by the Germans in former Russian territory.

- November 4: The Council of People’s Representatives and the Imperial Government both publish near identical social government programs, each not wanting to be outdone. Censorship is ended, general suffrage is introduced from 20 up, for the first time with women, workers’ benefits expanded, and all political prisoners are granted amnesty.

- November 5: The Independent Republic of Alsace-Lorraine is declared. It will last only eleven days before it is invaded by the French Army.

- November 6: German labor unions and industry leaders come to terms in the Stinnes-Legien Agreement. The council movement desired a democratization of heavy industry if not all production, which remove the powers of both unions and big business. The unions are given a pledge to uphold an eight-hour day for the workers, and in return the unions promised an end to wild strikes. Both sides pledge to fight the councils.

- November 7: The West Ukrainian People’s Republic requests admission into the Ukrainian Republic and therefore the Federal Republic of Russia, due to Polish rebellion in Lwow and elsewhere.

- November 8: The royals of all German states have abdicated by this point.

- November 9: With the collapse of German dominance over the country, the underground Estonian National Council issues the Estonian Declaration of Independence. They are re-organized as the Estonian Provisional Government, which calls for voluntary mobilization and the organization of the Estonian National Army.

- November 9: Romanian representatives of Bukovina vote for union with the Kingdom of Romania.

- November 10-17: The All-Ukrainian Army under the Russian Army invades Galicia and quickly reclaims Lwow from Polish nationalists. They also move into Bukovina and Carpatho-Ruthenia, both which have groups sympathetic to joining the Ukraine and the RDFR. The Romanians are angered over the ‘annexation’ of Bukovina.

- November 11: A Republic of Latvia is proclaimed in Riga by the People’s Council of Latvia headed by Janis Cakste.

- November 11: The return of national hero Jozef Pilsudski in Warsaw leads to the Regency Council of the Kingdom of Poland to cede all responsibilities to him.

- November 12: Transylvania proclaims unification with the Kingdom of Romania.

- November 13: The Polish government of Galicia joins the central Warsaw government.

- November 14-20: The Russian Army invades Narva in Estonia. The Chernov government declares that the nationalist resistance is actually a front for German imperialists. Baltic Germans in Russian-occupied territory are arrested and deported. Propaganda shows Russia merely resuming the fight against the German Empire, rather than crushing movements for independence. The populace is promised autonomy and even a referendum to determine whether the country should become a sovereign nation, at a later date.

- November 15: Vojvodina and the region of Syrmia, with a Serb majority in the population, secede to join the Kingdom of Serbia.

- November 17: The Council of the People’s Representatives declares that the councils in the whole Empire were to send deputies to Berlin to convene on November 25, for the “First General Convention of Soldiers’ and Workers’ Councils”. This happens sooner than in OTL due to USPD-control.

- November 19: Prince-Regent Alexander Karadordevic of Serbia declares the Kingdom of Yugoslavia, consisting of Serbia, Montenegro, and the former State of Slovenes, Croats, and Serbs.

- November 20-December 18: With Narva captured by the Russians, an offensive on Tallinn follows, while behind the lines a pro-Russian government is organized. The Federative Republic of Estonia is declared. 6,000 individuals are arrested for encouraging terrorism, many of them are Baltic Germans: of these, more than 1,000 will be executed.

- November 22: General Mikhail Alekseyev of the Russian Army dies of a heart condition at the age of 62. In OTL he died in late September 1918, but died earlier than he had to due to the stress of leading part of the anti-Bolshevik movement.

- November 23: The Russian Army enters Latvia. In Petrograd, Social Democrat Peteris Stucka proclaims the Federative Socialist Republic of Latvia as the head of the Provisional Government. Once again, nationalist resistance is labeled as a front for German imperialism, and Baltic Germans are heavily persecuted.

- November 24: Chancellor Ebert and General Groener order troops to Berlin to prevent the Council movement’s convention and regain control of the capital.

- November 25-30: A regiment in Berlin sent by Ebert and Groener advances too early and in doing so the soldiers are forced to open fire on a demonstration of unarmed “Red Guards”. Sixteen people die. This actually happened in the OTL convention in Berlin. The possibility of a dangerous conflagration is high but turns to nothing. The Councils vote 196 to 172 in favor of the creation of a Council System as the basis of a new constitution. They also demand the creation of a Central Council to be given supreme command of the army, the free election of officers and disciplinary powers over the Soldiers’ Councils. A congress would be held on December 15. The coup attempt by the Imperial Government fizzles due to lack of soldier motivation.

- November 29-30: When Chancellor Ebert demands their disbanding and refuses their pay over a question to their loyalty; the People’s Navy Division (Volksmarinedivision) occupies the Imperial Chancellery and captured Otto Wels. They did not exploit the situation, but demanded only their pay. Troops loyal to the Imperial government are contacted and attack. The sailors repel the attack. The government troops withdraw to the center of Berlin, and were disbanded themselves and integrated into the newly-formed Freikorps. They temporarily occupied the editor’s offices of the “Red Flag”. Military power in Berlin was in the hands of the Volksmarinedivision. The Council of People’s Representatives begins negotiations to win the division to their side by paying them off, allegedly for peace but in actuality, to give their rule substance. Chancellor Ebert orders troops into Berlin to quell the uprising.

- November 31: German Chancellor Ebert declares national parliamentary elections on December 16.

- December 1: Friedrich Ebert and the Chancellery begin relocating the government to Kassel, the Germany army headquarters, out of security requirements.

- December 3-5: Battles between former soldiers consume the streets of Berlin; the Volksmarinedivision and their Red Guard allies against Ebert-loyal divisions of soldiers. In the bedlam, workers erect barricades on the streets, which influences the USPD to decide to support their actions and solidify the rule of the Council of People’s Representatives. They appeal for a general strike in Berlin on December 6 and call for peace.

- December 5-31: The Russian Army enters Lithuanian territory and marches in virtually unopposed. Those who resist are declared German collaborationists. Indeed, much of Lithuania’s security forces are German soldiers or Baltic Germans, and that is mostly all that the Russians will fight. By the end of the year, more than 2/3rds of the country will be taken.

- December 6: 500,000 people surge into downtown Berlin for a peaceful protest. The first day is peaceful, as Chancellor Ebert agrees to negotiate with the Council of People’s Representatives.

- December 7: Negotiations with the Chancellery fall through and Ebert orders troops into Berlin.

- December 8-9: An improvised revolt in Berlin against the occupying forces causes street fighting to begin once more, with many of the workers and general populace joining the fight. The Volksmarinedivision quickly takes the initiative with this help.

- December 9: The Russian Army enters Minsk virtually unopposed.

- December 10: The anti-republican Freikorps, which had been established as essentially death squads, move into Berlin and start brutally clearing the city. ITTL, the Freikorps have only started being trained. There aren’t as many of them and they aren’t as well-trained as in OTL. They do kill a couple of high-profile USPD members: Wilheim Dittman and Emil Barth of the Council of People’s Representatives.

- December 12: The fighting in Berlin ends, with the Council firmly in control of the city. Hugo Haase calls for solidarity throughout the movement and the recognition of the Council’s superiority. The conflict triggers mass strikes in the Ruhr District, the Rhineland and in Saxony. However, many soldiers are more eager to go to their families for the Christmas season. Strikes are organized as late as New Years’ Day with little reaction from the Chancellery try as Ebert might.

- December 14: First clashes between expansionist Polish paramilitaries and the Russian Army outside Brest-Litovsk. The Russians are routed, having expected little resistance by such an organized force. The westward advance of the Russians grinds to a halt. Both sides move little during the rest of the month, as winter sets in.

- December 15: The Congress of Workers’ and Soldiers’ Councils in Berlin leads to a to-be-expected majority of the USPD.

- December 16: Virtually the entirety of the USPD and a part of the SPD boycott the national parliamentary elections in Germany. The elections yield a 39% majority for the SPD, with the Centre Party getting 22% of the votes, the German Democratic Party over 21%, the German National People’s Party 12%. This is little different from OTL and results in the same coalition between the SPD, DDP and the Centre Party.

- December 17: Hugo Haase is elected Chairman of the Central Committee, and immediately uses his new powers to declare the lack of legitimacy of the Chancellery, the disbandment of the Freikorps, the creation of a ‘Red Army’ to consist of pro-council soldiers, and the recognition from all military units of the Chairman. Hugo is not a man seeking violent revolution, but rather feels, properly so, as if the movement is being physically attacked by anti-republican forces.

- December 18: The last of resistance forces in German Bohemia fall to the Czechoslovak Army.

- December 18-23: The Russian Army begins a siege of Talinn while southern forces push in on Parnu. In five days, the Estonian National Army is broken and the Russians move in. The rest of Estonia succumbs in a week, though the hardened nationalists move into the forests to take up guerilla resistance. ITTL, the Russian Army isn’t burdened by the Civil War and can provide more men, though secessionist elements are out there. Assistance from Finland does not arrive in Estonia; the British provide rifles and arms, but slightly less due to less fear of the Social-Revolutionaries.

- December 21: The Greater Poland Uprising breaks out in Poznan, led largely by Polish veterans.

- December 28: The National Assembly of Germany convenes for the first time in Kassel.

- December 30: Latvia is almost entirely under the control of the Russian Army. The united Latvian Nationalist and German forces are led by a government in Leipaja.

- December 31: Friedrich Ebert is elected President of Germany by the National Assembly.

 

[Hnau]

January 1, 1919

 

[yourworstnightmare]

Poland is an interresting case in this TL, much of it formerly belonged to Russia, and we might acctually see a Russia at Versailles that actively speak against Polish independence.

 

[Analytical Engine]

January 1, 1919

You forgot Tennasserim (sic) and the border between New Guinea and Papua is wrong...

Other than that, fine...

Austria's fate makes me , though...