Point 1) Hi guys, thanks for your replies; what if the Sixtus affair succeds? Austria signs a peace deal, only to be occupied by the germans soon after; the war continues to rage, until germany is ultimatley defeated: William II abdicates, Germany is a mess; in the meanwhile, Austria-Hungary is free of German military occupation, but still extremely shaky and on the brink of collapse; Charles, then, seizes the oportunity and is crowned emperor of Germany with support from the royalist factions within the country. immediatly later, he releaes Hungary, while still formally holding St. Stephen's crown (Milos Horthy will rule as regent, anyway). That said France is not happy at all, but they get Charles to subscribe the treaty wich the allies were preparing for Germany; also they realize that the armies have demobilisd, and thus, reopening the hostilities at that given moment would be impossible; also they realize that the french army was on the brink of collapse as well, and that neither the soldiers, or the public opinion would support such a move; so what we get is a negotiated settlement, with Germany having it's 1919 borders + Austria and Bohemia (and Slovenia as well; being that in the negotiated settlement after asutria's stepping back from the war, it was not considered to give that territoy away); Germany also retains upper Silesia; the Serbians get their Jugoslav state (minus Slovenia); Italy gets away as in OTL; same for Poland (the main difference here, being that the ensuing austrian leadership has no desire to reclaim polish lands). Hungary is reduced greatly, but keeps Slovakia. Germany has to pay indemnities, but less so than in OTL; alos military restrictions will be vague and temporary, as the new state claims to be the successor of the austrian empire, not the prussian-led german empire (wich will be equally blamed for starting the war). In the following years, I see Poland getting close to Germany, in an anti-soviet fashion. I aslo see Germany and Yugoslavia getting closer against Italy (Germany willing to reconquer land in the alps region, Yugoslavia willing to contain Italy. France will be in tatters.
Point 2) Antother possibility is having the war end by a negotiated settlement in 1918, assuming that the germans manage to break french lines in a last ditch offensive, but still being starved to death by british blockade; therefore, german political establishment collpases, and ...go to point 1; this secon case has the dvantag of having the war already over when the mess happens, also having central powers in a better negotiating position