A landlocked 1848 Hungary

Assuming Croatia gets independent under Jelacic post 1849... so between 1849 and 1866... how do you think Hungary will keep the relations with Croatia? Hostile or more developing?

Considering Croatia has no claim in Hungary but Serbia does.

Depends greatly on Serbian-Croatian relations. Lets assume that Croatia gets independent with no border changes toward Hungary. That puts a significant serbian population under Croatian rule as the territory between the Sava and Danube - across Belgrad - would be part of Croatia. If they have sour relations and Hungary renounces its claims on Croatia - likely in this scenario - I think Hungary and Croatia will be natural allies to each other. To demonstrate: OTL after WWI Croatian ustashe's had training camps in Hungary. Croatian nationalism could easily have this result. Or they could try to make common cause with the serbs - likely they try at first but as stated above, nationalism can easily sour this so I have little hope it working in the long run. The problem is I dont know enough of Jelacic to guess which direction he would go. It also wont help when serbian serbs will start to demand annexation of said territory of Croatia.

As I see it right after independence the main focus of Hungary will be to regain its lost territories - Croatia not included of course. Hungary also needs good relations with Croatia as the animosity with Austria makes it the most likely route for hungarian grain through croatian ports. Croatia too will have interest to have this hungarian trade go through them.

To sum it up: My guess is it doesnt start great however as hungary is focused elsewhere and needs Croatia for its trade and I expect Croatian-serbian relations to sour pretty quickly they will soon become allies or something close to that.
 
Neither of the Romanian duchies was in any position to try anything in regards of Transylvania in 1848-49. Both had its liberal revolution but they were repressed by russians and ottomans by the september of 1848. So without a further POD no chance there.

Also before a peace is settled between Austria and Hungary resulting in the independence of Hungary any attack on Transylvania would be basically an attack on Austria as well.

And after the peace the Principalities would have to face Hungary alone. The Carpathians provide a very easily defendable border - which can be fortified as well. Add to that that Hungary will have a battle hardened army and better economy. If you wait long enough a railway system - if OTL is any indicator Hungary will have a huge advantage here. Add to that as I formerly pointed out a Kossuth led Hungary will try to reach an understanding with its national minorities so I expect much less trouble from that direction.

So to be honest, in a 1 vs 1 between Romania and Hungary in this ATL I would put my money on the latter. Romania can later ally with Serbia and that does a lot to even the odds. Also with Austria if Austria doesnt end up swallowed by a Greater Germany. However Hungary can find allies of its own: most likely Bulgaria and Croatia, depending on the developments of the Balkan the Ottomans are candidates as well.

But IMO the most likely scenario from this POD is that Austria becomes a part of Greater Germany and Hungary ends up as a german puppet. The latter happens in any case because of the russophobia of the hungarians.
 
Add to that as I formerly pointed out a Kossuth led Hungary will try to reach an understanding with its national minorities so I expect much less trouble from that direction.

Would Kossuth be able to sell that to his Magyar followers? Or would they just say "Thank you and goodbye" like the British did to Churchill in 1945?
 
Would Kossuth be able to sell that to his Magyar followers? Or would they just say "Thank you and goodbye" like the British did to Churchill in 1945?

Thats a really good question I already delt with partially in my first post in this thread.

The siutation is complicated because:
1. You are right that Kossuth views in this regard werent supported by many. Most of the hungarian leadership would support the OTL course.
2. OTOH you simply cant get rid of Kossuth after a successful 1848 revolution. He is immensly popular with the people, and with a most likely wider frenchise that consolidates his position even more. Remember that the hungarian revolutionary army OTL was raised in significant part after his recruitment tour. He was also no magnate so he is much closer to the people. And most importantly he was instrumental in the land reform of 1848 that won the masses of the peasentry for the revolution. So if a bunch of magnates - who still have too big estates - come and try to displace him... Good luck with that.

The outcome I see as most likely is what happened on an occassion OTL at the later days of the revolution. Im not in the position to check for the exact details right now but Kossuth managed to reach some sort of understanding with some of the transylvanian Romanian leaders. In the end the whole deal came basically to nothing because the local representative of the hungarian government sabotaged it.

However after the war is done the ability to sabotage the central government will be much reduced. Anyway if he manages to reach a workable understanding even with some of the national minorities it will be a much better situation than OTL. But I expect a better treatment overall as long as he is in power even without a specific understanding. The real problem will come when he steps aside. At that point however the system he creates will be in place for decades and working. Also if he has retired he can still step up again if necessery. But the gist of it is that after he is off the stage I expect that steps will be taken - slowly - towards OTL. Or if there is only 1-2 minorities that proved problematic (no agreement in place) they will be focused upon - made to scapegoats.
 
Last edited:
Top