A landlocked 1848 Hungary

What if the Hungarian Revolution of 1848 had been a partial success, but Austria retained Croatia?

I'm thinking Western Slovakia and Burgenland remain Austrian here as well.
 
Hungary will have to defend against Serbia and Romania in a few decades as they have claims to some Hungarian lands. They will have to find an ally (Bulgaria).
 
One of the most interesting aspects of this are the implications for Germany. IOTL it never really made sense for Austria to be part of German unification because it came with the rest of the Hapsburg empire. If you're trying to create a unified German ethno-state you don't want all those slavs. But with Hungary's half of the empire out of the picture there'd probably be a German majority or close to it in the remaining Austrian territory. They might end up spearheading unification themselves, or getting gobbled up in a similar to OTL Prussian led unification.
 
Romania doesn't exist yet in 1848 and Serbia is a vassal principality. Hungary would have a head start in theory.
That's why I said in a few decades. War of 1877-1878 of TTL will see the Balkans become independent of de-facto Ottoman control and the rivalries will emerge.
 
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This Hungary would probably allign with some other regional power than Germany. Potentially France or the Ottomans? This also likely means that Germany would get a different regional ally, perhaps Serbo-Croatia?
 
Italy? Boh are interested in contrasting Habsburg revanscism (and potentially carving up Croatia. Or they could even become a Russian client, subverting the events of 1849.
 
This Hungary would probably allign with some other regional power than Germany. Potentially France or the Ottomans? This also likely means that Germany would get a different regional ally, perhaps Serbo-Croatia?

Considering the large numbers of Slavs and or Eastern Orthodox population in Eastern part of the Kingdom of Hungary a pro-Ottoman approach would do a lot. Especially to prevent Serbia from taking advantage. The alliances might be altered. Without a large A-H, Prussia might even let Croatia, Galicia and the Italian populated part go in exchange for support to annex Bohemia and Austria. Croatia might end up as a second Slavic Kingdom under Jelacic next to Serbia rivaling each other. Germany makes the most sense due to not letting Russia become a bigger threat. France will depend on if Prussian led Germany eyes on parts of Hungary.
 
Italy? Boh are interested in contrasting Habsburg revanscism (and potentially carving up Croatia. Or they could even become a Russian client, subverting the events of 1849.

I'm not sure if Italy can carve up Croatia so easily in after it gets independent in 1848. It looks too good as a point of influence in the Balkans for Great Powers.
 
One of the most interesting aspects of this are the implications for Germany. IOTL it never really made sense for Austria to be part of German unification because it came with the rest of the Hapsburg empire. If you're trying to create a unified German ethno-state you don't want all those slavs. But with Hungary's half of the empire out of the picture there'd probably be a German majority or close to it in the remaining Austrian territory. They might end up spearheading unification themselves, or getting gobbled up in a similar to OTL Prussian led unification.

Maybe we have two Germanies or Austria gobbles up the Southern German states. France will probably either play them off one another or pick one to support
 
What if the Hungarian Revolution of 1848 had been a partial success, but Austria retained Croatia?

I'm thinking Western Slovakia and Burgenland remain Austrian here as well.

Austria is in a weaker spot. It has effects on the Crimean War, German unification, Italian unification.

I can see Hungary giving up Croatia, hell even Burgenland. But Western Slovakia? I doubt that.

However. An independent state in 1848 gives them an advantage over their neighbours. No Romania, Serbia is too weak. A neighbour in the South that doesn't really care about the existence of Hungary as long as it doesn't get partitioned.
 
Maybe we have two Germanies or Austria gobbles up the Southern German states. France will probably either play them off one another or pick one to support

Makes sense... But even then I wonder if Prussia will allow two Germany's. One might leave the Prussian led for the Austrian led Germany. Something Bismark will know and won't let it risk. Other than the fact that if Austria still has prestige among German states after losing half of their lands.
 
I'm not sure if Italy can carve up Croatia so easily in after it gets independent in 1848. It looks too good as a point of influence in the Balkans for Great Powers.

I agree, but I meant as a long term shared interest between the two: "I get Istria and Dalmatia, you take Slavonia" for the next war with Austria (the 1866 equivalent). If the Habsburg Empire utterly collapses in '48 I agree that an independent Croatia is more likely.
 
Makes sense... But even then I wonder if Prussia will allow two Germany's. One might leave the Prussian led for the Austrian led Germany. Something Bismark will know and won't let it risk. Other than the fact that if Austria still has prestige among German states after losing half of their lands.

Possibly yeah since I figure Austria will find a way to survive and I figure Hungary being forced to deal with its neighbors would help it grow.

Prussia would probably not want two Germanys, but whether they will get anyone else to agree is a different thing. My guess would be on who could befriend France first would help determine things.
 
There's a big question of what happens to Galicia when all this takes place. Does Russia march in and grab it, or does Hungary try and hold on to it?
 
There's a big question of what happens to Galicia when all this takes place. Does Russia march in and grab it, or does Hungary try and hold on to it?

It is outside the old Kingdom of Hungary so Hungary won't go for it. Besides, Hungary is in no position to defend Galicia against Russia.

You might say it will be annexed by Russia.
 
So lets assume that the 1848 revolution was a success, Hungary is independent, but lost Croatia and aformentioned territories. Croatia is not important in a sense if the hungarian leaders are willing to loose something its that. However Burgenland and other nortwestern terrotiories will create revanschism in Hungary towards Austria. So most likely Hungary will ally itself with any potential enemy of the Habsburg state to regain Burgenland and the rest. So this makes an alliance between Hungary and France/Piedmont, or Prussia later very likely - I assume that he will regain those terriotires in one of these coming conflicts.

OTOH home affairs of Hungary would start off as very different than OTL. Kossuth was on the opinion that a consensus should be reached with the national minorities. As we know from OTL the wast majority of the hungarian politicans dont agree with this - however Kossuth has tremendous prestige and is immensly popular by the people so it would be very hard to go against him. I also think that this Hungary would be much more democratic - based on Kossuth's views I see a much wider franchise than OTL from the get go. But most likely still a constitutional monarchy.

As for Serbia and Romania. Hungary has a headstart and not only in independence. There is a long standing hungarian elit with lots of money and political experience. Hungary was a more or less autonom state under Austria and has inherited much more efficient practices from Austria than Romania and Serbia from the Ottomans. Its economy is already more developed - though dont having a port will be a problem. OTOH it can develop its own industry without having to compete with the already established and much more developed Austrian and Bohemian lands - one of Kossuths most famous sayings was: "Without industry the nation is a half armed giant" - and he did make some small steps in this direction OTL. Militarily Hungary has easily defendable borders - especially to Romania. Later it can always ally with Bulgaria. Unlike Austria-Hungary Hungary is not a Great Power so can dabble on the Balkans without necessating Russian intervention.

Though Hungary will be at the end of the century be a puppet of the German Great Power. Hungarian leadership end the elit, including Kossuth was very Russophobe - and seeing planslavism growing influence in Saint Petersburg with a good reason. However their only hope against Russia is to align themselfs towards Germany - even if Russia too is allied to it.
 
Considering the large numbers of Slavs and or Eastern Orthodox population in Eastern part of the Kingdom of Hungary a pro-Ottoman approach would do a lot. Especially to prevent Serbia from taking advantage. The alliances might be altered. Without a large A-H, Prussia might even let Croatia, Galicia and the Italian populated part go in exchange for support to annex Bohemia and Austria. Croatia might end up as a second Slavic Kingdom under Jelacic next to Serbia rivaling each other. Germany makes the most sense due to not letting Russia become a bigger threat. France will depend on if Prussian led Germany eyes on parts of Hungary.

OTL Hungarian popular feeling was Pro Ottoman during the 1878 conflict. Though I suspect that was more thanks to russophobia.
 
So lets assume that the 1848 revolution was a success, Hungary is independent, but lost Croatia and aformentioned territories. Croatia is not important in a sense if the hungarian leaders are willing to loose something its that. However Burgenland and other nortwestern terrotiories will create revanschism in Hungary towards Austria. So most likely Hungary will ally itself with any potential enemy of the Habsburg state to regain Burgenland and the rest. So this makes an alliance between Hungary and France/Piedmont, or Prussia later very likely - I assume that he will regain those terriotires in one of these coming conflicts.

OTOH home affairs of Hungary would start off as very different than OTL. Kossuth was on the opinion that a consensus should be reached with the national minorities. As we know from OTL the wast majority of the hungarian politicans dont agree with this - however Kossuth has tremendous prestige and is immensly popular by the people so it would be very hard to go against him. I also think that this Hungary would be much more democratic - based on Kossuth's views I see a much wider franchise than OTL from the get go. But most likely still a constitutional monarchy.

As for Serbia and Romania. Hungary has a headstart and not only in independence. There is a long standing hungarian elit with lots of money and political experience. Hungary was a more or less autonom state under Austria and has inherited much more efficient practices from Austria than Romania and Serbia from the Ottomans. Its economy is already more developed - though dont having a port will be a problem. OTOH it can develop its own industry without having to compete with the already established and much more developed Austrian and Bohemian lands - one of Kossuths most famous sayings was: "Without industry the nation is a half armed giant" - and he did make some small steps in this direction OTL. Militarily Hungary has easily defendable borders - especially to Romania. Later it can always ally with Bulgaria. Unlike Austria-Hungary Hungary is not a Great Power so can dabble on the Balkans without necessating Russian intervention.

Though Hungary will be at the end of the century be a puppet of the German Great Power. Hungarian leadership end the elit, including Kossuth was very Russophobe - and seeing planslavism growing influence in Saint Petersburg with a good reason. However their only hope against Russia is to align themselfs towards Germany - even if Russia too is allied to it.

Assuming Croatia gets independent under Jelacic post 1849... so between 1849 and 1866... how do you think Hungary will keep the relations with Croatia? Hostile or more developing?

Considering Croatia has no claim in Hungary but Serbia does.
 
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