A Land of Ice and Cold: Poland as a Great Power

A solitary horseman galloped along a long, deserted, and frozen rode. He rode with a purpose; he had no time. His breath froze in the morning cold, and his hands would not stop shaking. But he continued on, for his message would not wait. His destination was Dinaburg, where his king August waited, and he carried news of great import. The rider carried news of the anti-Augustian alliance; his lord would make great use of this news.

August was not the only one scheming to upset the alliance. Friedrich Wilhelm I, Elector of Brandenburg and King in Prussia, was not entirely satisfied by the alliance he had agreed to. To be sure, he would gain Saxony – a territory of immense value – but the prospects of a resurgent Commonwealth allied with the fearsome Swedish lion gave him great pause. Rather than seeing them as allies, Friedrich Wilhelm saw his erstwhile partners as potential, and future enemies, because of the geographical tensions caused by the Swedish enclave in Western Pomerania, and the Polish enclave around Gdansk.

Friedrich Wilhelm desired far less than a total victory for the alliance; he desired a total victory for Prussia, while Sweden, the Commonwealth, and Russia tired themselves with incessant fighting. With the Habsburgs already embroiled with the Bourbons in the west, the Hohenzollern lands would have years of peace to integrate and strengthen themselves. Unknowing that August was aware of his planned demise, he searched for a way to alert August of the alliance without violating it.

So on April 1st, 1702, an entire month ahead of schedule and with cries of Protestantism on their lips, the armies of Brandenburg-Prussia streamed across the Saxon border. The Saxons were entirely unprepared. The cream of their army was prancing around Lithuania, doing who knows what, and they were not expecting an attack – August’s frantic messages had remained unable to cross the vast hinterland of the Commonwealth. Hohenzollern armies brushed aside whatever pathetic Saxon resistance they encountered – within weeks they had taken Dresden, by the 22nd they were across the Elbe, and the city of Leipzig fell on the 29th. The conquest of Saxony had not even taken a month.

416px-Friedrich_Wilhelm_I_1713.jpg

Friedrich Wilhelm I

It is said that Holy Roman Emperor Leopold I Habsburg flew into a wild rage when he heard the news, driving all of his attendants into hiding for a full day. But, engaged in the struggle with France that he was, he could ill afford to start another war to his north.

Despite Friedrich Wilhelm’s best efforts, though, he did not manage to warn August of anything, for August’s spies had already brought him word. On April 3rd, August’s Saxon army drove on the Polish forces gathering at Troki. However, his Lithuanian allies refused to go with him. They eyed Lewenhaupt’s army gathering at Riga with trepidation, and refused to leave their homes defenseless; for all they opposed the Warsaw Rokosz, the Lithuanian magnates saw no reason to bend over backwards for August. August’s attempts to woo them proved to be in vain.

So it was only August’s 5,000 Saxon infantry, along with 7,000 Saxon cavalry and 1,000 Cossacks from the Vitebsk Konfederocja, which marched out to strike the armies of the Warsaw Rokosz before they could link up with the Swedish forces and create an army so large it would be undefeatable. Lewenhaupt’s spies carried him word of the Saxon march, but they could only ride so fast.

In Troki, Kazimierz planned a war with his advisors, the most prominent of whom were Aleksander Pawel Sapieha and Stanislaw Leszczynski. The Polish Crown Army, as well as the collected armies of the magnates, had yet to entirely assemble – most notably, there were as of yet almost no dragoons – but there were still 10,000 men – 6,000 “foreign” infantry, and 4,000 assorted cavalry – in Troki. On April 6th, jazda lekka brought word of August’s Saxon advance.

The generalnosc, composed of Kazimierz and his advisors, gathered to plan their course of action. They could not link up with Lewenhaupt before they clashed with August, though messengers were dispatched to him immediately. Retreat, of course, was unthinkable; a defensive battle simply unwinnable. The only course of action remained to attack.

On the night of April 6th, the entirety of the assembled cavalry and the majority of the lords – Aleksander Sapieha was forced to stay back to command the infantry, over his strenuous objections – departed the town of Troki to launch a surprise attack on August’s army. The magnates viewed the infantry as worthless soldiers which would only slow their attack down.

On April 11th, August’s army pitched camp for the night around the town of Swieciany, about halfway between Dinaburg and Troki. An hour after sundown, the army of the Warsaw Rokosz arrived. Kazimierz, and the magnates, decided to launch a nighttime attack to catch the Saxons, who had a 3:1 numerical superiority, unawares. The attack was a decisive success. The Saxons under direct attack panicked and fled the field.

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The Night Attack by Theodore Aman​

Then, a unit of pancerni mistook a unit of jazda lekka for a unit of Cossacks. They fired, and charged. A unit of passing hussars commaned by Stanislaw Leszczynski assumed the pancerni had to be Saxon cavalry – why else would they attack jazda lekka? – and charged in as well. Before the confusion was resolved, hundreds of soldiers had died, and with them so did Leszczynski. The forces of the Warsaw Rokosz withdrew in confusion.

All in all, the attack was a disaster for the Rokosz. 400 cavalry, including Leszczynski, were dead, for just 300 Saxon infantry. When the light of day exposed both sides, Kazimierz ordered a retreat to avoid further disaster. The magnates meekly acquiesced.

On April 16th, Kazimierz and his army returned to Troki, their heads hung in shame. The Rokosz resolved not to undertake any more action until the linkup with Lewenhaupt was completed. Then, on April 21st, August’s forces appeared outside the city.

The Saxons had dozens of cannon; the Rokosz had assembled only 5. Troki, however, was fortified – Aleksander Sapieha had been busy. The forces of the Rokosz hunkered down in their fortifications, and were forced to wait for Swedish relief. The hussars, pancerni, and jazda lekka needed to fight on foot to offset the Saxon numerical superiority. The magnates who fought with them were noticeable by their ostentatious uniforms, and as such were easy pickings for Saxon soldiers.

Days of bombardment, and three attempted stormings, were withstood and repelled the by defenders of Troki. Rations, never completely gathered in the first place, began to run out. The Polish artillery was knocked out on the second day of the siege, eliminating any ability to reply in kind to the Saxon bombardment. Morale was at an all-time low.

The sun crept above the horizon on the day of April 26th. It seemed a day like any other – more bombardment with no respite. At noon, however, August’s Cossacks began to return with some disturbing reports. Lewenhaupt’s army was rapidly approaching from the town of Olita, after boarding the Swedish navy at Riga and sailing the Baltic and the River Nemen.

August launched one final assault to dislodge the Polish defenders. Unlike all of the others, it stormed across the Polish lines, displacing block after block of Polish infantry. The situation was perilous. Kazimierz himself elected to lead a thin line of hussars in a desperate effort to repel the attack. Rather than fight with firearms, they drew sabers and charged the Saxon infantry – an environment where the hussar’s heavier army would bear results. After hours of desperate fighting, the Saxons were repelled.

Almost immediately thereafter, August began to pack up camp. On the morning of April 27th the Saxon army was gone. At lunchtime, the Swedish army, 15,000 strong, under Lewenhaupt, had arrived.

The siege of Troki was costly for both sides. The Saxons lost 3,000 infantry, which they could not replace. The Warsaw Rokosz lost 2,000 infantry, 2,000 dismounted cavalry, and all of their artillery. But now Lewenhaupt was in command.

The combined Polish-Swedish army advanced into Lithuania, brushing off continuous attacks by Vitebsk Cossacks. They met the army of August, now with Lithuanian allies, outside the plains of Dinaburg on May 13th. The Swedish infantry won the day. Their Ga-Pa tactics embarrassed the opposing infantry, leaving them wide open to charges by Swedish and Polish cavalry. The Swedish artillery, combined with anti-cavalry Swedish and Polish infantry, managed to fend off the Saxon and Lithuanian cavalry. August, along with the surviving Lituanian magnates, fearful of reprisals, fled to Russia.

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The Charge of Czartoryski at Dinaburg by R. Caton Woodville​

In the meantime, on April 28th, after Lewenhaupt left to help the Polish forces, Boris Sheremetov launched an invasion of Ingria. The 1,000 man garrison inside of Narva, tembling before the 17,000 man strong Russian force rampaging through the countryside, did nothing to stop it. Lewenhaupt, after dispatching August’s armies in Lithuania, hurried north to reconquer Ingria, to reestablish the land link so key in keeping the Baltic provinces supplied. Sheremetov withdrew before the full might of the Swedish army; by the end of June, Ingria was back in Swedish hands. Lewenhaupt was not yet ready to attack Russia though, as the combined Russian-Saxon-Lithuanian armies simply possessed too many men.

August, after taking up residence in the border city of Pskov, personally journeyed to Moscow to request shelter from Tsar Peter. Peter granted his armies shelter, with the condition that the Saxon generals train the Russian peasant soldiers. Aleksander Menshikov joined the Saxons forces to learn from them.

After the battle of Dinaburg, Kazimierz attempted to pass three acts of legislation through the much now reduced – many magnates had been killed in the fighting – Warsaw Rokosz. The first, and arguably most important, was the addendum of the Sejm to majority voting; only 75% of the Sejm would need to agree to a bill for it to pass. After many arguments and much bribery, the Czartoryskis and the Lubomirskis convinced the Rokosz to narrowly adopt the measure.

Kazimierz’s other efforts were less successful. He tried to convince the Rokosz to accept the Vitebsk confederation back into the Commonwealth’s fold by granting their demands; instead, the Rokosz passed an agreement damning the rebels and their aims of religious toleration. The Rokosz also shot down Kazimierz’s attempts to both raise the tax rates and increase the Polish Crown army. Whatever the national security threats, the magnates were opposed to paying more money to the Crown.

Elections for a new king were set for late next winter, then the magnates comprising the Rokosz went home to their estates.
 
Based on your last update, it seems that - in order to win a quick victory - the soon-to-be commander of the armed forces would have to use strategy over sheer force, as well as counting on help from foreign allies. Something tells me this will not go according to plan.

Still though, I'll figure the Commonwealth would have to do something about the Protestants and Orthodox citizens living in their borders unless they want to have another rebellion in the long-term, or invite a dangerous foreign patron.

The question is, will the Sejm allow it?

EDIT: Also, is the divide between the Lithuanians and the Ruthenians/Belorussians very wide yet?

Stop reading my notes :p All I'm going to say is this could lead to some problems down the road.

Will you look at pop culture, technology, et. al., ITTL?

Good start.

I'll definitely be looking at technology when the industrial revolution hits speaking of which, when was Newcomen's engine? 1712?) and as far as it impacts military affairs. I probably won't update culture in the main updates unless it effects the course of events, but I'll be doing a culture based update every twenty years or so.
 
Wait, Friedrich Wilhelm the First? As in, the dad who forced his son to witness his best friend's execution? :eek:

Whatever direction you're taking Poland in this timeline, I hope his son got a better childhood than in OTL.
 
EDIT: Also, is the divide between the Lithuanians and the Ruthenians/Belorussians very wide yet?

Modern day Lithuania and Lithuania back then was two different beasts. If anything what we know as Lithuania now become a successor only when Stalin granted Vilnya (now Vilnus) to them.
Back then the "Lithuanian" nobility such as Sapiehas and Radziwills were "Litsvin" nobility, and "Litsvin" was a synonym for what we now know as "Belorussian" (my compatriots did not call themselves Belorussians en masse until about century in the events described, the ethnonym (sic?) was "Litsvins". Just to stop the confusion.
The full title was the Grand Duke of Litsvins, Ruthenians and Samogitia (which was what is now Lithuania known back then). Litsvins here stands for what is now known by pro-Russian ethnonym Belorussians.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samogitia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Litvin
 
Modern day Lithuania and Lithuania back then was two different beasts. If anything what we know as Lithuania now become a successor only when Stalin granted Vilnya (now Vilnus) to them.
Back then the "Lithuanian" nobility such as Sapiehas and Radziwills were "Litsvin" nobility, and "Litsvin" was a synonym for what we now know as "Belorussian" (my compatriots did not call themselves Belorussians en masse until about century in the events described, the ethnonym (sic?) was "Litsvins". Just to stop the confusion.
The full title was the Grand Duke of Litsvins, Ruthenians and Samogitia (which was what is now Lithuania known back then). Litsvins here stands for what is now known by pro-Russian ethnonym Belorussians.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samogitia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Litvin

Huh... never knew about that; My Eastern European history is basically zilch, so thanks for pointing that out! :)
 
February 3rd, 1703: The Royal Castle, Warsaw

The frozen winter air blew through the stone halls of the castle. Great baroque drapes turned and tossed, buffeted by the wind. The screeching and whistling of the wind as it squeezed through crevices and cracks sounded like nothing so much as an avenging spirit. A lone figure, clothed in the finery of a royal servant, hurried down the corridor, buffeted by the wind, and struggled to force shut the window. Eventually, he was successful.

Down the hallway, and through a door, the assembled szlachta breathed a noticeable sigh of relief. The infernal cry of the elements rendered all their wealth and power useless in its face; however, in the realm of man, they were supreme. They, and the rest of the Sejm they dominated, had assembled to elect a king. August was not dead – far from it, he still terrorized them in the night – but all agreed he had forfeited his right to rule. They were not so unanimous in who should succeed him.

Many magnates won great glory and standing for themselves in the Warsaw Rokosz. Almost as many died in the Warsaw Rokosz. Magnate families spearheaded by widows and minorities still had influence, even if it was reduced, but no chance at a royal title. The only two families with the resources and influence to stand a snowball’s chance were the Sapiehas and the Czartoryskis.

Kazimierz Czartoryski’s family was incredibly influential. La Familia, as they were known, had infiltrated the highest reaches of government and power. He had also gained great renown for his actions in leading the Warsaw Rokosz. The Swedish Chancellor Gyldenstolpe sent him what funds could be spared from the war effort: Sweden much preferred an ally they had already worked with to a complete unkown.

Aleksander Sapieha could draw on the support of his family, and gained a great boon from the treason of his traditional familial enemies. However, he was not much loved, if respected. Friedrich Wilhelm, in an attempt to destabilize the kingdom, supported him – not in any hope of success, but to stoke tensions within the Commonwealth.

Prussian money, however, only swayed so many. Kazimierz won convincingly on the first vote. He was crowned Kazimierz IV, in remembrance of Kazimierz the Great, on February 4th, 1703. There was much rejoicing.

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The Coronation of Kazimierz IV by Jacques-Louis David​

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February 10th, 1703: The Royal Castle, Warsaw

Kazimierz IV, the King of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, and ostensibly its most powerful individual, ran his hands through his hair. Then he rested his head in his left hand, and stared at the useless Sejm in front of him.

The Sejm had not supported his proposals. He had proposed a policy of toleration with the rebels in the east. A small, catholic polonized plurality could not, in the long run, keep control of a large latvin orthodox and uniate population. But the magnates, in their arrogance, did not see that. They thought it was possible.

Kazimierz thought back a mere half hour:

“The Sejm has decided that the King shall lead an army to suppress the unlawful Vitebsk Confederation.” proclaimed Aleksander Sapieha, his eyes daring Kazimierz to object.

“So be it.” Kazimierz replied, “However, the current funding, the current army size, they are not enough. The King’s estates have been wrung dry. I request a small tax increase to fund the expedition.” The tension in the room was palpable.

“We fought to rid ourselves of one tax increase. We shall not have another.”


Now the Sejm finished deliberating on what to do with the lands of those who had sided with August. Some 80% of the assembled szlachta agreed that the lands should be confiscated – but to who? The most popular proposal was that the lands default to those next in the line of succession of each family, but there were others. One proposal was that the lands default to the office of the king. Another was that they be divided up amongst the most powerful magnates. No on proposal garnered the requisite three quarters majority to pass.

Kazimierz could only stare and wish for more power as the Sejm agreed to sort the matter out later.

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March 8th, 1703: Narva

Lewenhaupt watched one of the largest armies he had ever seen march out of the city gates. It was a well-oiled, supremely drilled, military machine. Even ants could not march in better formation; it did the Swedish Lion proud. 20,000 infantry, 15,000 horse, 100 cannons, and provisions sufficient to last months. Their aim was to subjugate Grozny Novgorod, and force the Tsardom of Russia out of the war before the Saxon training combined with sheer Russian numbers proved overwhelming.

Lewenhaupt remembered the last Swedish general to invade Russia from Narva. Rehnksiold had died gloriously, with much pain to the Russians. Lewenhaupt intended to avenge his defeat.

“Tonight, we ride”

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The Swedish Rider by Theodore Gericault​

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March 29th, 1703: Grozny Novgorod

Boris Sheremetov ducked as a cannonball soared through his chambers. “Damn Swedes.”

He went back to studying his map. A gigantic – there was no other word for it – Swedish army surrounded his city. He had a grand total of 15,000 Russian troops, and 10,000 Saxon. The Swedes outnumbered him; there was no chance for a victory in battle. The Alliance forces had only barely managed to withdraw into the city before the Swedish forces, and send a letter to Tsar Peter. They had to hope Peter arrived before death did.

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April 23rd, 1703: Minsk

Kazimieriz felt a pit in his stomach, fill one minute and empty the next, as he surveyed the Royal Crown Army. Or, more accurately, he surveyed the bruised remnants of the Royal Crown Army. A scarce 5,000 cavalry, armed with old, decrepit, weapons, stood before him: 500 hussars, 1,500 pancerni, 500 jazda lekka, and 3,000 dragoons. Individually, each towered above a Cossack in qualitative terms, but they would not be fighting on anything like equal numbers.

If only he had money. If only he had more men. If only the Sejm would have accepted the Vitebsk Konfederocja as it was…

The army departed, Kazimierz at the head.

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May 19th, 1703: On the outskirts of Shklov

“Ride! Ride!”

Kazimierz leaned down in his saddle. This was not working. This was not working at all. The Royal Crown Army had attacked what appeared to be a defenseless encampment. Then the Cossack infantry had refused to break even in the face of a hussar charge. A veritable swarm of mounted Cossacks had appeared over the horizon. The Royal Crown Army had fled, outnumbered and outgunned.

Now they were riding for their lives, to reach the safety of Minsk. Cossacks continuously took potshots at Kazimierz’s soldiers; they died by the minute. However, if the Crown Army were to turn and fight it would be annihilated. Kazimierz crouched lower in his saddle, and urged his horse even faster.

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Cossacks Charging into Battle by Franz Roubaud​

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June 11th, 1703: Minsk

The people were celebrating in the streets. Barrels of beer, of wine, were opened and enjoyed. Revelers were everywhere, engaged in merrymaking; even the army joined in. The last Cossack, the last soldier of the Vitebsk Konfederocja, had left. The Cossack army was not meant to lay siege to a fortified city, and suffered from a lack of centralized leadership. They had melted away. Kazimierz, however, was not as relieved as everyone else; he had gotten a lucky break and he knew it. He ordered an emergency session of the Sejm to be convened at once.

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July 4th, 1703: Grozny Novgorod

Peter had marched his 40,000 men over hill and under glen, at a breakneck pace – leaving important affairs unattended back home to do so. Now, at last, he had arrived. If Lewenhaupt sized Grozny Novgorod, then Russia’s position would be untenable. The Russians needed a victory, and, by God, Peter intended to deliver one. Still, even with the training August’s Saxon generals had given his troops, Peter felt they had no hope of standing up to Swedish troops in combat. Menshikov proposed a siege.

Peter modified that idea to his wishes. The Russian army marched in a great encircling arm south of Grozny Novgorod, and appeared to its west, directly on Lewenhaupt’s supply lines. Peter expected Lewenhaupt to sue for peace, as he had no chance of resupply. The Russian army sent a delegation to the Swedish lines. The delegate were returned with nothing, not even the clothes on their backs; the Swedish army set up siege lines in both directions.

“Begin a siege” Peter said to Menshikov “And tell Lewenhaupt this, he will not be a Caeser to my Vercingetorix.”

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August 2nd, 1703: Grozny Novgorod

The Swedish army was desperately low on supplies. As loath as he was to admit it, Lewenhaupt’s strategy of a bidirectional siege, grounded in classical theory, simply was not working. They had to break out.

The Swedes packed up their cannons, their tents, and readied their boots. As the sun dawned on the day of August 3rd, the Russian commanders in the outside lines warned their troops of a possible Swedish attack. But its ferocity surprised even them.

The Swedes charged at the Russian lines. Not at the point where they were most heavily defended, to the northwest of the city, but to the relatively weak forces to the southwest. The Swedish cavalry spearheaded the charge. They should not have been able to cross an open plain in full view of the enemy’s cannon without suffering heavy casualties. But their steeds were swift, their enemies surprised. Once the cavalry collided with the Russian lines, it was absolute carnage.

The Swedish infantry followed behind the cavalry, cleaning up whatever Russian forces were lucky enough to survive the charge. The infantry then formed a corridor in which the cannon could escape. Peter ordered his infantry in, but the Swedish attacked first. Ga Pa tactics once again carried the day. By the time Lewenhaupt withdrew completely from the battle, with all of his cannon intact, 19,000 Russians were dead for the price of 7,000 Swedes. Peter chose not to pursue; Lewenhaupt temporarily retreated in search of supplies.

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October 13th, 1703: The Royal Castle, Warsaw

The magnates were gathered in the halls of the king once again. This time, however, they were rustling. They did not stop moving not once, their hands were always on their swords, and they eyed the shadows as if they were expecting a ghost. The Vitebsk Konfederocja was more powerful than they could have imagined. An Orthodox, peasant, uprising had strode in their nightmares since they were old enough to dream.

“…if the king had merely executed his duty as a general properly, none of this would have happened.” Aleksander Sapieha, of course.

“Bloody hell, what did you expect – a miracle?” Teofila Ludwika Zaslawska. She at least was a steadfast ally of the king. “An army of 5,000 can do nothing”

“What do you want, taxes?”

“At the very least. A compulsion to serve wouldn’t hurt either.”

“This is madness. We will absolutely not stand for anything of the sort. The king got into this mess, and he can get out of it.” The two opposing sides were not eying each other anymore; instead, they were glaring.

Before things could get out of hand, Kazimierz signaled Jan Dobrogost Krasinski, a minor and elder nobleman, to bring his proposal to the floor.

“Gentlemen of the Sejm, may I have your attention? Good, we shall not lose our heads quite yet. Ha ha ha.” Kazimierz wondered if this had really been a good idea. Krasinski continued “Now it is to my understanding that the king needs more revenue for the army, while you gentlemen cannot pay it. There is a solution. The lands in Lithuania, unclaimed since the flight of the traitors, are free for the taking. If they were to become Crown Land, all of our problems would be solved. No taxes, and a bigger army. “

“You expect us to give the king more power?”

“It’s that or the Cossacks”

The members of the Sejm collectively looked at each other, and voted assent. Aleksander Sapieha was heard saying that the king was too powerful, that the next election would collapse the house of cards.
 
sketchdoodle: Unfortunately, Frederick the Great probably gets entirely butterflied :( Nothing as extreme as Katte will probably happen, though I haven't planned that out yet.

Valena:Thanks! That's really useful information
 
Nice to see new update (keep going ;) ), but I think that's a bit unfair in this case.

Polish taxation system was clearly faulty. When it worked it was supposed to gather (relatively) big amounts of money during war, and quite small during peace.

Now we have situation when system is obviously already in decay. But because king has support of aristocracy and losing war is rather... dangerous for health, I can't see a way to not raise taxes (in usual way- so it won't be increase of annual taxes- as always during war, these are extraordinary taxes).

Finally, it's rather impossible for one of magnates (especially so influential!) to win elections. Whole system was based on one thing- balance of power between king and subjects (obviously it didn't work ;) ). King- magnate have plenty of resources (Czartoryscys were able to keep their own standing armies!) and money, to indeed "collapse the house of cards".
 
Gaaaaaah... The Lithuanian Crown Lands would fill the purses of the king for a while, but the magnates are seriously shooting themselves in the foot over this. How do they expect the king to ward off his enemies, make money out of thin air? :mad:

On another note, no Frederick the Great? Damn, I was hoping for a possibly-gay ruler to aid Poland's modernization (fear is optional).
 
There are only two major ones in Russia, and the one in this region is Veliky Novgorod. It seems that the author conflated it with the capital of Chechnya, LOL.
 
Hello? Is this TL alive?

Yes, sorry, I got buried in college apps and had to block this site for a while. I should be done in a week or two, so this TL will resume then.

And sorry for all the historical mistakes, I'll edit the Novgorod thing in particular, then perform triage on the rest of it when I have time.

Edit: No change on Novgorod, I can't edit the past documents. So... a random and insignificant POD has made the Novgorod labeled as Great Novgorod on this map (http://www.ostu.ru/personal/nikolaev/russia_eng/northwar1721en.png) known as Grozny Novgorod for the time being. I'll just refer to it as Novgorod from this point out.
 
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