A Japanese unconditional surrender before the Soviets can declare war against them

CaliGuy

Banned
This might be unlikely, but here goes: What if Japan would have unconditionally surrendered before the Soviets were able to declare war against them in 1945?

Would the Soviet Union have still gotten a piece of the post-WWII spoils in East Asia in this TL?

Also, would it have been possible for North Korea and/or China to avoid becoming Communist in this TL?

Any thoughts on all of this?
 
If Japan immediately capitulates to the United States/Wallies, then it's likely that all of Korea gets put under US control. The ChiComs and the NatChinese immediately jostle for position in Manchuria. Perhaps if the local IJA troops refuse to accept the surrender, then the Soviets can enter the area to "enforce the peace."
 

CaliGuy

Banned
If Japan immediately capitulates to the United States/Wallies, then it's likely that all of Korea gets put under US control. The ChiComs and the NatChinese immediately jostle for position in Manchuria. Perhaps if the local IJA troops refuse to accept the surrender, then the Soviets can enter the area to "enforce the peace."
Question--when exactly did the U.S. and the Soviet Union negotiate over Korea's post-WWII future?
 
Question--when exactly did the U.S. and the Soviet Union negotiate over Korea's post-WWII future?

At the Cairo conference, there was a general agreement among the Allies about the concept of an indpendent Korea after the defeat of Japan. However, the exact terms of occupation and independence weren't agree upon at the time. Some in the State Department wanted co-rule between the Soviets and the Americans. However, most realized that having a joint occupation zone would be unworkable.

Ultiamtely no formal arrangement was reached and instead both sides created facts on the ground during the final stages of the war (i.e. August 1945). The Soviets conquered northern Korea during the Soviet invasion of Japanese occupied Manchuria and Korea. As soon as Japan capitulated, the US, fearing a completely Soviet Peninsula petitioned Nat. China to occup Pusan. The ROC, hardly in a condition to engage in a foregin occupation declined. The United States then unilateraly declared that the area south of the 38th parrarllel (essentially all of Korea not already overrun by the Red Army) to be "part of Japan and thus under the exclusive occupation of the United States," effectively sealing the Soviets out of that area.

The Soviets accepted this arrangement because they were confident that a.) the communists would win the first pan-Korean election, or b.) that the United States would soon withdraw from South Korea, thus leaving the area open for invasion. The United Nations soon formalized the de-facto partition and drew up a plan for democratic pan-Korean elections supervised by the UN. The Soviets, no longer confident that the communists would win, refused to permit this election to occur in their zone of occupation, instead opting to hold their own "unbiased" election. The US agreed to this election, and the government of the Republic of Korea was thus born.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Korean_presidential_election,_1948

More information: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_independence_movement

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Division_of_Korea
 
The Russians will move in to where they can as fast as they can. They were certainly take the southern half of Sakhalin and if they can beat the USN to it the Kuriles. The question is how much can Stalin move up his planned moves in to Manchuria, Korea, and the Kuriles? They were moved up a little with the first atomic bomb, and how much further could they be advanced? Sakhalin is easy, and given the Japanese took it in 1905 nobody will care much. Parts of Manchuria and Korea (though not as much of either) are practical, given the crap Soviet naval/amphibious capabilities in the Pacific it was close enough as it was, trying to make the Kuriles happen on an accelerated schedule is quite iffy, especially if they are racing the USN.

If the Russians haven't declared war before Japan surrenders, the Americans are not going to be happy about allowing them to pull a land grab, especially since the situation in Soviet occupied areas is already obviously not going according to the agreements made.
 
This might be unlikely, but here goes: What if Japan would have unconditionally surrendered before the Soviets were able to declare war against them in 1945?

Would the Soviet Union have still gotten a piece of the post-WWII spoils in East Asia in this TL?

The USSR would still get Karafuto (southern Sakhalin) and the Kuril Islands.

Also, would it have been possible for North Korea and/or China to avoid becoming Communist in this TL?

Depending on the date of the Japanese surrender... Soviet forces were not quite ready when the US dropped the Bombs - Stalin had planned to attack about two weeks later, and the OTL invasion was somewhat ad hoc. If the surrender is in mid-July, or earlier, Soviet forces may not be able to move before the US and China take control of the Japanese territories.

it should be noted that while Japan stated its willingness to surrender on 10 August, Japan did not actually surrender until 15 August, and the first Allied troops entered Japan on 28 August.

One point to be addressed is whether China would object to Soviet troops entering Manchuria if Japan had already surrendered. OTL, Soviet forces crossed the border on 9 August, so there was a week's fighting before the surrender was announced. The announcement was ambiguous and poorly communicated to most of the Kwantung Army. So the fighting continued for another week or so.

If the announcement happens in July, before any Soviet forces have moved... I think the Chinese reaction is very important. If Chiang is smart enough, he may ask for some of his troops to be flown into Manchuria to raise the Chinese flag ahead of the Soviets. If Kwantung Army HQ is smart enough, they may realize that surrendering quickly to China is a lot safer than being invaded by the Soviets. OTL, they didn't do that, but OTL they had no choice.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
At the Cairo conference, there was a general agreement among the Allies about the concept of an indpendent Korea after the defeat of Japan. However, the exact terms of occupation and independence weren't agree upon at the time. Some in the State Department wanted co-rule between the Soviets and the Americans. However, most realized that having a joint occupation zone would be unworkable.

Ultiamtely no formal arrangement was reached and instead both sides created facts on the ground during the final stages of the war (i.e. August 1945). The Soviets conquered northern Korea during the Soviet invasion of Japanese occupied Manchuria and Korea. As soon as Japan capitulated, the US, fearing a completely Soviet Peninsula petitioned Nat. China to occup Pusan. The ROC, hardly in a condition to engage in a foregin occupation declined. The United States then unilateraly declared that the area south of the 38th parrarllel (essentially all of Korea not already overrun by the Red Army) to be "part of Japan and thus under the exclusive occupation of the United States," effectively sealing the Soviets out of that area.

The Soviets accepted this arrangement because they were confident that a.) the communists would win the first pan-Korean election, or b.) that the United States would soon withdraw from South Korea, thus leaving the area open for invasion. The United Nations soon formalized the de-facto partition and drew up a plan for democratic pan-Korean elections supervised by the UN. The Soviets, no longer confident that the communists would win, refused to permit this election to occur in their zone of occupation, instead opting to hold their own "unbiased" election. The US agreed to this election, and the government of the Republic of Korea was thus born.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Korean_presidential_election,_1948

More information: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_independence_movement

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Division_of_Korea
Thanks for all of this information! :)

Also, though, out of curiosity--was Korea more vital to the Soviet Union than Austria was? After all, I know that the Soviet Union withdrew from eastern (its part of) Austria in 1955 and allowed democracy to be established there afterwards.
 
Thanks for all of this information! :)

Also, though, out of curiosity--was Korea more vital to the Soviet Union than Austria was? After all, I know that the Soviet Union withdrew from eastern (its part of) Austria in 1955 and allowed democracy to be established there afterwards.

Austria was 3/4 controlled by the Wallies and thus the Soviets gave up less than the Wallies. In Korea, both sides would have been forced to give up an equal amount of influence. Additionally, the Soviets were confident that the US wouldn't intervene in Korea in 1950 (the US had openly said they wouldn't) while in Austria, they would immediately be halted if they attempted a military invasion.
 
Actually the US Secretary of State in a speech in 1950 when defining the US "security line" in Asia simply did not mention Korea. The US never said they would not defend Korea, they just were ambiguous about the commitment to Korea which led to Stalin assuming they would not respond and slipping Kim's leash.
 
One point to be addressed is whether China would object to Soviet troops entering Manchuria if Japan had already surrendered.

Why exactly wouldn't China object to this, though?

Not wanting to offend a Great Power, not really seeing the resulting problems (which are a lot more obvious in hindsight), being caught off-guard by events, not sure of U.S. support (a lot of Americans would assume that Soviet "assistance" in dealing with evil Japanese ought to be welcomed).
 
The USSR would still get Karafuto (southern Sakhalin) and the Kuril Islands.

If the US is still planning for the Cold War, would the Soviets really get all of that land? Maybe Karafuto and the northern Kurils is inevitable (although the US could put in a word for it because of the obvious strategic use--we'll put the predominantly Japanese population of Karafuto and the Kurils/Chishima in the same category as the Germans expelled from Eastern Europe), but could Japan keep the Southern Kurils (which OTL they still claim)?
 
Perhaps the invasion of Okinawa goes a little better and between that and more firebombings like Tokyo you get the Emperor to order surrender in May or June of 45 (perhaps right after German surrender).
 
Just think about it, Japan surrenders in July

No atomic bombs are dropped
USA controls more of Korean peninsula, Soviets have a smaller occupation zone, north east corner of present day North Korea

Soviets obtain both south Sakhalin and Kurile islands

Manchuria ??? perhaps it is split between Soviets and Nat Chinese. Basically Harbin and North and East are Soviet. South and West is Nat Chinese

How does this effect the Chinese civil war? Maybe the communists still win. Or perhaps the Nationalists shore up gains before taking on the Communists.

Anyway, no Korean war, it is butterflied away.

So no nukes and no Korea. This may be a somewhat better Asia. But then again, who is not to say that the Communists still kick the Nats off the mainland. The USA gets involved in the early 1950's by helping the Nats out, helping the Nats in southern China, Hainan Island.
 
Sakhalin yes, Kuriles no. The USSR has no claim on the Kuriles which have always been Japanese as opposed to Southern Sakhalin. Once Japan surrenders the US/USN can move in to the Kuriles in a heartbeat, the Soviets not so much given the realities of their amphibious capabilities in the Pacific. Other than recovering Sakhalin, any seizure of territory occupied by Japan (whether traditional like Kuriles or conquered like Manchuria/Korea) by the USSR after Japan has surrendered will be seen quite rightly as a blatant ladn grab - whether or not the USSR formally declares war on Japan. even with a formal DoW everyone will ask why a DoW since Japan has not attacked the USSR nor is the USSR "assisting" the USA - which by the way they had zero intention of really doing.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Sakhalin yes, Kuriles no. The USSR has no claim on the Kuriles which have always been Japanese as opposed to Southern Sakhalin. Once Japan surrenders the US/USN can move in to the Kuriles in a heartbeat, the Soviets not so much given the realities of their amphibious capabilities in the Pacific. Other than recovering Sakhalin, any seizure of territory occupied by Japan (whether traditional like Kuriles or conquered like Manchuria/Korea) by the USSR after Japan has surrendered will be seen quite rightly as a blatant ladn grab - whether or not the USSR formally declares war on Japan. even with a formal DoW everyone will ask why a DoW since Japan has not attacked the USSR nor is the USSR "assisting" the USA - which by the way they had zero intention of really doing.
Actually, the northern Kuriles were Russian before 1875:

https://cdn3.img.sputniknews.com/images/104857/69/1048576944.png

1048576944.png
 
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