“Hartache” Drives Dem Election Gains
Washington Post, November 8th, 1990
Dems make big gains in House, States; modest one-seat gain in Senate
Strong Democratic Bicameral presence likely to hamper President Bush’s agenda
Washington – Democrats made noteworthy gains in last night’s congressional elections gaining 17 seats in the house and one seat in the Senate thanks to higher than expected voter turnout, trampling some hope among Republicans to take Congress. Some pundits are citing Democratic frustration over Gary Hart’s relatively close loss in 1988 to George Bush in what some in the press have dubbed “Hartache”[1]. The night was marked with numerous close races, with many margins coming down to less than 1% of the total vote.
In the House, Democrats gained a net of 17 seats, bringing them to a 281 to 153 advantage over Republicans, with one Independent in Vermont following Mayor Bernie Sanders’ landslide win over incumbent Peter Plympton Smith (R); Sanders is expected to caucus with the Democrats. The Democratic gains were driven by razor-thin wins in Alabama’s 2nd District where Faye Baggiano (D) defeated William Dickinson (R) thanks to high turnout in the city of Montgomery, Alaska’s single House seat where Mayor John Devins (D) of Valdez, Alaska managed to topple Don Young (R), several Democratic wins across California[2], Connecticut’s 5th where Toby Moffett (D) defeated Gary Franks (R), Florida’s 4th where Reid Hughes (D) defeated Craig James (R), Iowa’s 2nd where Eric Tabor (D) defeated Jim Nussle (R), Maine’s 2nd where Patrick McGowan (D) defeated incumbent Olympia Snowe (R), Nebraska’s 3rd where Sandra Scofield (D) defeated Bill Barrett (R), North Carolina’s 11th where incumbent James Clarke (D) held off Charles Taylor (R), Pennsylvania’s 18th where incumbent Doug Walgren (D) held off Rick Santorum (R), and Virginia’s 1st where Andrew Fox (D) defeated Herbert Bateman (R)[3].
In what is seen as the largest defeat for the Republicans, in Georgia’s 6th district David Worley (D) defeated House Minority Whip Newt Gingrich (R) in a tight race driven by a combination of Hartache and, some allege, growing immigration from New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles due to the moving of CBS and Columbia Entertainment’s headquarters to suburban Atlanta[4]. Representative Dick Armey (R – Texas’ 26th) is expected to take over the role of Minority Whip.
Things were closer and less dramatic in the Senate where the Democrats managed to gain one seat, Minnesota, with Paul Wellstone winning 52.6% over incumbent Senator Rudy Boschwitz, who won 45.6% of the vote[5]. Other close races included Kentucky where Republican Mitch McConnell eked out a win over Harvey I. Sloane 51.4% to 48.6%, Democrat Bill Bradley held off Christine Todd Whitman 51.6% to 46.1%, and Oregon Representative Mark Hatfield holding off Ron Wyden 50.6% to 49.4% despite larger than expected turnout from Wyden’s home district of Portland. This leaves the Democrats with a 60 to 40 advantage[6].
“This is a great day for progressivism,” said Nancy Pelosi of California’s 5th District. “With these wins we can set the stage for defending civil rights and progressive values across the country.”
Others are more reticent. “Many of these Democrats are hardly Progressive,” said Congressman Mo Udall of Arizona’s 2nd District, who won reelection by a landslide. “We have a large number of moderate and even conservative or populist Democrats in the caucus, so I urge my progressive friends to not start popping the Champaign just yet.”
Democrats also made more modest gains in State and Local level races, gaining 5 Governorships along with two Third Party Governor victories[7], leading to a net Republican loss of seven State…
Cont’d on A2.
The Second Mile named a “Point of Light”
The Philadelphia Inquirer, November 9th, 1990
Today Jerry Sandusky’s The Second Mile charity became President Bush’s 249th Presidential Point of Light[8] in honor of their years of service for underprivileged youth. The award is given by the President to honor those organizations that have made positive impacts in the lives of Americans, and has been awarded to organizations battling homelessness, drug abuse, illiteracy, AIDS, and other worthy causes. And The Second Mile is surely worthy of such an award. Founded in 1977 by Penn State Assistant Coach Jerry Sandusky, the organization has a long and storied history of making a big impact in the lives of young boys and girls and touched the lives of over 51,000 disadvantaged youth since its inception. “The kids, the volunteers, they are The Second Mile,” said Sandusky, the founder and chairman of the board of the organization. State Sen. Doyle Corman, R-Bellefonte, was equally enthused. “I'm delighted the Second Mile has been recognized as one of the points of light,” he said at a press conference Friday.
Thatcher Narrowly Survives Heseltine Leadership Challenge
The Times of London, November 15th, 1990
Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher has barely survived a snap Tory leadership election launched in preemptive response to a growing dissent movement led by rival Michael Heseltine. With 206 votes for Thatcher and 142 for Heseltine and 25 abstentions, Thatcher barely retained the 15% lead needed to avoid a second vote, reportedly after intense and acrimonious lobbying by the PM and her allies. The vote comes amid growing dissatisfaction within the Conservative Party for Thatcher’s leadership and is seen as a reflection of growing public dissatisfaction with PM Thatcher, whose poll numbers are currently in a deficit compared to the Tories as a whole, and with some recent polls that show Labour at a growing advantage in a hypothetical election.
The snap leadership election, reportedly launched at the advice of MP John Major[9], who is increasingly seen as Thatcher’s heir apparent, is just the latest drama in an ongoing Tory internecine struggle driven by both personality and by ongoing questions involving British alignment to the European Community, most recently over the issue of the Exchange Rate Mechanism, or ERM. The recent resignation of Geoffrey Howe as Deputy PM was seen by many analysists as a “shot across the bow” and a sign that anti-Thatcherite sentiment was increasing within the Conservative party.
The closeness of the win is being interpreted as a sign of vulnerability for the Prime Minister, and is being seen by many as a Pyrrhic victory. Labour MP Neil Kinnock is already calling for a general election, with polls indicating that were a general election to be called today that Labour would have a fair chance at taking over. Thatcher has been increasingly singled out by her colleagues as “combative” and with a reputation for overriding the collegiate opinion of her party. Thatcher sees the challenge as a “betrayal” by her colleagues[10], decrying the…
Cont’d on A2.
[1] In general, a 2-3% increase in Democratic vote totals (depending on state) was seen due to “Hartache” and other political factors. The 1990 Senate races are in keeping with our timeline, though with many of the races far closer than OTL due to Hartache. The big reason for the discrepancy in D/R ratio from 1990 in our timeline is actually due to the 1988 Senate elections, which I’d ignored previously. Based on calculations by self-avowed political junkie
@jpj1421, the presence of an actually competitive Democrat in 1988 would have almost certainly flipped a few razor-thin races in this timeline. Notably, 1988 saw the following Senate changes from our timeline: in Florida, Buddy MacKay (D) manages a win over Connie Mack III (R) 51.5% to 48.5% (50.4% to 49.6% for Mack in our timeline); in Montana John Melcher (D – incumbent) squeaks out a razor-thin 50.01% to 49.99% win over Conrad Burns (R) after two recounts (51.9% to 48.1% for Burns in our timeline); in Washington Mike Lowry (D) defeats Slade Gorton (R) 50.5% to 49.5% (51.1% to 48.9% for Gorton in our timeline); and in Wyoming fiery Populist John Vinich (D) beats Malcolm Wallop (R) 50.3% to 49.7% (50.4% to 49.6% for Wallop in our timeline). And Convention Floor boater hat tip to
@jpj1421 for the help on the political front (he has a spreadsheet and everything).
[2] In difference to our timeline: California 1st saw Douglas Bosco (D) defeat Frank Riggs (R), California 14th saw Patricia Malberg (D) defeat John Doolittle (R), California 19th saw Gary K. Hart (D –
not the Presidential Candidate) re-elected to a second term after winning his race in 1988 (he lost in 1988 in our timeline), California 37th saw Ralph Waite (D) defeat Al McCandless (R), and California 44th saw Jim Bates (D) defeat Duke Cunningham (R).
[3] This covers the races that were different than in our timeline (assume all other races went per our timeline). All of these races were within 1-2% in our timeline, and thus flipped largely due to Hartache (the first Midterm election often sees major gains by the party that lost the prior Presidential Election and our timeline’s relatively unchanged 1990 midterms were a bit of a fluke driven by lackluster Democratic enthusiasm following Dukakis). What is interesting here is that a couple of future Big Names (Snowe and Santorum) see early defeat. At the moment they’re simply a junior Congresswoman and a political candidate. Will they reemerge? Time will tell.
[4] Yes, this is where the butterflies led! I didn’t expect it either. But don’t expect Georgia to go Blue yet…
[5] A 2.2% increase for Wellstone, who won by a narrower margin in our timeline.
[6] This is four more Democrats total than in our timeline, which was 56 D to 44 R. Before any progressives start to celebrate, remember that this is an era before the hyper-partisan, hyper-tribalized politics, so many of these Democrats are conservative Rural and Southern Democrats or wildcard Populists such as Vinich. US Politics will start to get increasingly weird from this point forward.
[7]
1990 Governor Races:
Democrats - 35 (+5)
Republicans - 13 (-7)
Connecticut Party - 1 (+1)
Alaska Independence Party - 1 (+1)
Changes from in Our Timeline:
Alabama - Paul Hubbert (D) defeats H. Guy Hunt (R)
Arizona - Terry Goddard (D) defeats Fife Symington (R)
California - Dianne Feinstein (D) defeat Peter Wilson (R)
Illinois - Neil Hartigan (D) defeats Jim Edgar (R)
Michigan - James Blanchard (D) defeats John Engler (R)
Vermont - Peter Welch (D) defeats Richard Snelling (R)
[8] As they did
in our timeline. Both quotes from this article are real.
[9] In this timeline Major advised for the preemptive election and talked her out of being out of country for it as she was in our timeline. She narrowly won the first vote in our timeline (held on the 20th) but by too narrow of a margin, and as a result she resigned when it seemed likely she’d lose the second vote.
[10] In the aftermath, many heads will roll within the Conservative party as traitors, real or imagined, are purged. The drama as it were has only just begun.